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Another Iranian Revolution? Not Likely

New York Times Original article ›

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Prof. Leverett of Penn State University says the student protests at the time of the Shiite holy day day of Ashura, after the death of Grand Ayatollah Ali Montazeri, do not represent the majority. He says it is unikely that there will be much change in the Iranian government and President Obama should work with the existing Iranian government. He goes on to say that vastly larger number of Iranians went to the streets on December 30, in demonstrations organized to support the current Islamic Republic government, even saying that these demonstrations could have numbered nearly 1 million people. As the Iranian student protests have generated much media interest and were covered widely, this article presents an entirely different picture of the situation. The question remains to what extent does student protests reflect wider sentiment throughout the country, and if Leverett is right why did the party represented by Ahmadinejad need to win the presidential election by practices that were questioned by the opposition and others. Or is there an urban-rural divide in Iranian politics where most of the urban and literate classes have turned against the government and support student protest and seek change, whereas the rural areas support the current government.

Iran's move from a theocracy to a military dictatorship- 2010-2012

06/04/2009

A majority of Ahmadinejad's minister are from the Revoutionary Guards or the militia allied to it. He himself was a Revolutionary Guards officer. The emrgence of adictatorship which controls the Ayatollah Khamenei. The opposition now consists of the pragmatic conservatives, clerics who do not support Ahmadinejad, students and poor in rural areas.

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December 7, 1953, was the date that students protests agains t the overthrow of the elected Mossadegh governemt took place and student protests have continued under the Sha's regime and under the Islamic Khamanei regime. The vast majority of young people especially in the urban areas it seems are now against the rigged election regime of the Ahmadinejad government.

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The question for this alternative view remains why there were questions about rigging the vote in Iran compared to the vote for Morsi in Egypt which showed a clear urban-rural divide.

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