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Massachusetts is moving into no. 3 or no. 4 position after New York and New Jersey and possibly Michigan in coronavirus cases with 34,000 reported. More than 3700 were hospitalized  in the state.

Massachusetts is close to hotspot New York. It also has a more aggressive testing strategy and is hiring hundreds of volunteers to do contract tracing, and uses Partners in Health, a nonprofit. Michigan and Massachusetts have followed a more aggressive strategy of testing compared to California which has taken a different approach of not doing aggressive testing and contact tracing leading to lower numbers in California now adjusted for population that could be different later on.

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Any idea that herd immunity is the way out is dispelled by a simple look at these pictures from the NYT showing what the level of infections are today and what they would have to be for "herd immunity." No Asian nation has even mentioned the word. Most Asian nations have the most experience with virus of all sorts. The only government that supported the idea without saying so openly is Sweden as indicated in a report in FR24 on the amplification of coronavirus in Sweden compared to neighboring Denmark, Norway, Finland. Imagine with a threshhold of 60% of people having antibodies provided by experts for herd immunity, the current New York level of about 20% would have to triple, and Sweden's 7% would have to grow seven fold. It is hard to imagine New York going through something of these proportions. Looking at what works now that other countries handling it have set examples of what works provides a better way- low tech contract tracing the German way, and one used in Asian countries, and the cluster isolation through testing and contact tracing adopted in many Asian countries as well as Germany. Strengthening public health systems, and working one's way out of the crisis where there are no easy answers offers real and realistic hope. ...

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This BBC report shows how contact tracing works in Singapore to control the spread of coronavirus. On 4 February 20 Chinese tourists visited a traditional Chinese medicine shop in Singapore. Only 18 coronavirus cases had been recorded in Singapore on that date. That visit to the medicine shop created a new cluster for the disease to spread. Singapore's contact tracing units traced such locations through its well developed and extensive contact tracing programme, which follows the chain of the virus, identifying and isolating people before they can spread the virus further. For about 40% of the 243 cases so far on March 19 the first indication they had was a call from the Singapore Health Ministry.      About 6000 people have been contact traced so far, using a combination of CCTV footage, labor intensive detective work with phone calling. This includes an incident of a taxi ride of 6 minutes in which the person a yoga teacher was identified and contacted by the Health Ministry. Enforcement is done as the person was contacted at her home by three people who showed her a quarantine order, which said you could not go out or its fine time and jail time. With about 8000 people per square kilometre, Singapore is small and densely crowded. It could easily be overwhelmed with hospitals not able to cope and the health system collapsing if this was not done. Wuhan could have happened here, says infectious diseases specialist Dr. Leong at Mont Elizabeth Novena hospital, who advises the government.  Because the crime rate is low the police were given this task of tracing as a priority in addition to hospital units working on tracing. It also included the armed forces personnel helping with tracing so that it could be done quickly without delay. This provides a lesson on how countries that have faced the health crisis have used innovative methods to tackle it with good results. ...

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Requests, consensus, and social pressure played a bigger role than just strict rules and penalties in controlling the virus in Japan. By contrast in Germany states imposed strict rules and fines, some consensus, a better equipped hospital system, added contact tracing, to limit the spread. More than 100 industries in Japan have drawn up new guidelines for reopening to minimize risks. Prime minister Abe said recently " Now we are going to venture into a new arena. Therefore we need to create a new lifestyle from now on. We need to change our way of thinking." The new social consensus on the best way to behave outdoors and at work is the way Japan is tackling reopening.  The effort is focused on avoiding high risk situations the 3 C's crowded, closed spaces, and close contact, close conversations. Japan started with a fumbled response but gradually the right spirit and social distancing caught on. The universal health care system helped Japan detect cases early, even in the remote rural areas. ...

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The use of apps and tech based solutions have been largely ineffective in doing effective contact tracing and testing to isolate people with coronavirus. Epidemiologists question its effectiveness when it does not lead to people isolating themselves to prevent spread.  A major problem is lack of confidence in the tech based solutions. 27 states in the U.S. have no apps or are not developing one.  Apps do not use the entire set of tech resources available because of dilution from concerns about privacy. Another major problem is that there is no national approach. California, Washington and Oregon have a pilot program on the Google-Apple system, Delaware and Pennsylvania launched an app in September from Irish developer NearForm. New York and New Jersey started with a NearForm app in October. States using apps are doing this without much conviction that this is a tool that will work to do effective contact tracing and testing to isolate infected persons. For this reason one sees pilots and launches this late in the coronavirus pandemic. Early efforts stumbled.  The UK and French apps also proved ineffective. Germany opted for low tech solution that proved surprisingly effective in the first wave of the coronavirus. Germany relied on teams from state employees which used a national database, personal computers and phones to call individuals who needed to be isolated and tracked. Asian countries have less concern for privacy leading to apps being more effective. Even here low tech solutions with national database and teams of people with personal computers and phones calling and making personal contact including visiting homes has worked better than apps. Human relations skills to reassure people affected by coronavirus, legwork to contact personally at homes and check up, and persuasion to have people isolate have been more effective than app based impersonal tech solutions. ...

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Spain and Italy, the New York region, delayed their response, just as Japan and Sweden are doing today, resulting in the severity of the pandemic in these countries and regions. This pandemic is showing the earlier you act to lockdown, quarantine, use contact tracing and isolation of clusters method, the better it is with fewer people infected and fewer deaths. This is the single most important lesson of this crisis, which health experts worldwide, including Dr Birx, head of the White House Response, and Dr. Fauci, never get tired of repeating.

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With coronavirus spread out over wide parts of each country and with so many people infected it is very difficult to do the contact tracing and isolation that was tried during the first wave. In Germany during the first wave efforts for contact tracing and isolation worked reasonably well. During the second wave in November things have changed. In Germany authorites do not know in November where 75% of the people testing positive for coronavirus got it. In Spain this figure is 93% for the last week of October. In France and Italy it is at 80%. In New York it is over 50%. Other problems are the increasing number of cases where the coronavirus is spread in an home setting, the lack of restaurant data collected on who visits, and the delay in getting test results. In Germany frequently people say they cannot remember where they were. Researchers from the German version of the FBI, the Pasteur Institute in France and the Koch Institute in Germany are getting involved in November to understand in what settings the virus spreads most. ...

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Public health experts warn that it is essential that countries reopening their economy have a reproduction ratio of much less than 1.0 so that the rate of increase is under control. Germany's Robert Koch Institute which advises the German government says the reproduction ratio which was 0.70 in mid April is now up to 0.96 after creeping back up. This is based on a mathematical model and extrapolated from infection numbers several weeks back.  It doesn't reflect the change by recent easing of lockdown measures starting with reopening smaller stores. This validates the careful approach adopted by France which was put forward by prime minister Edouard Philippe in his address to the National Assembly. The Assembly approved the plan 368 to 100. More legislation will back up the French government's authority to ban non essential travel between French departments and the creation of a large brigade to perform contract tracing. That involves finding testing and isolating everyone potentially infected, using dedicated locations. Detailed restrictions on travel, work and gatherings will take effect when France reopens partially on May 11.  France is also putting resources behind its testing program to test every person having coronavirus symptoms, and all they are in contact with. That means about 700,000 tests a week. Officials will generate a color coded map from this with red areas facing more restrictions than green areas. Student size is capped at 115 per class. Cafes, restaurants, movie theatres and large museums will remain closed. Gatherings of more than 10 banned. Those who can work from home asked to do so. Public transit users will be required to use masks, and marks on platforms will indicate the social distance required. Only essential travel is allowed more than 62 miles from home. These rules remain till June 2, when new ones will be set. Large music festivals and sporting events are canceled till the fall. Mr. Philippe says "these efforts will not be in vain and should allow us to arrange for a better summer season." ...

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The critical variable in knowing whether lockdowns of cities and countries are working is called the coronavirus RO, or reproduction ratio. This ratio measures the average number of people infected by a carrier A. It could be that he infects 1 person at work and transport call it B people , or in large gatherings call it C people he infects 2 persons, or in other surroundings such as restaurants he infects 1 person call it D people. The people A has infected B+C+D are the ones now not infected by A with the lockdowns such as in New York, Italy, Germany, UK and France. It is determined by global health experts that the number of B+C+D is about an average of 4 persons infected by 1 person A with coronavirus, though it may be much higher in practice in some areas. The natural rate of RO or reproduction ratio is considered by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control to be 3.86 or about 4, if no lockdown or social distancing or other prevention is practiced. This in a situation where people behaved as before unaware that the virus was around them. Governments such as New York and France, UK, Germany are including this key variable in their determination of how long a lockdown lasts, and for determining if the reopening is not going the right way or failing. In such situations the lockdown would be reinstated, or if it is a phased reopening such as in the U.S. and other countries go back to the previous phase. In Italy and Germany the RO reproduction ratio for coronavirus is estimated by official experts at 0.8. Germany's RO estimated by the Robert Koch Institute and Italy's by Franco Locatelli, scientific advisor to the government. In New York the margin is thin- with RO of 0.9, estimate from the state's governor. In France which has one of the tightest lockdowns of all with a document required to go outside it is at 0.6, the figure coming from the prime minister Mr. Philippe. In the UK it is below 1.0 but no accurate figure is reported. As Dr. Birx- leading the coordinated response in the U.S. - emphasizes over and over again this is a very contagious virus, about which not much is known. Social distancing, wearing masks, basic prevention measures such as frequent handwashing, and not gathering in large numbers of people, is essential for defeating this virus. This has to be followed up with extensive testing and contact tracing to win this fight.   ...

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Quidel Corp. gets the first FDA approval of an antigen test which tests for the disease itself. Quidel is a company specializing in tests for the flu and infectious diseases. It uses an older technology to detect the disease. Quidel CEO Douglas Bryant, says he will ramp up the manufacturing of the test to go from 200,000 tests a week in the week of May 11, to more than a million a week in several weeks. The current testing technology has several shortcomings. The most common test so far is the PCR test which magnifies virus particles to ease their detection. It is cumbersome technology because it takes time to run the test and analyze the results. The new antigen tests have several advantages. They have a simpler design, are easier to process, and can be produced at lower prices because of the simpler design. They are designed to identify the virus in people in real time, to process results quickly in minutes in Quidel's Sofia analyzers. Because of the simple design and proven technology it can be scaled up quickly to do millions of tests.  The U.S. currently has the problem that it is not able to do enough testing- about twice the current rate is needed to do what health experts recommend. A minimum of 4 million tests weekly is needed and followed up with contact tracing to make it safe for people to go back to work, says Ashish Jha of the Harvard Global Health Institute.   The U.S.   ...

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The role that Cushing, Oklahoma, and its 9 square miles of storage tanks for crude oil plays in the US oil price levels. How the oil inventories kept rising and new oil tanks kept being added because of the profits in futures from the $6 difference between today's oil price and the oil price some months into the future. Now the situation is in reverse because of the credit crunch their is less borrowed money available for this kind of trading, and suddenly there is a big depletion in oil stocks as some sellers had to sell stocks at Cushing to cover losses and others found it profitable to sell as prices were oil supplied now jumped higher. So there is a big depletion in oil stocks at Cushing and this affects prices of oil futures on the Nymex. In 1983 Cushing was designated by Nymex the New York Mercantile exchange as the official delivery point for its new futures contract on light, sweet crude. This Nymex price now serves as a global benchmark. this is the background behind how Cushing stocks levels in oil tanks has a disporportionate influence on Nymex oil price for futures. So speculative opportuntities for profit in the oil trading and storage combined with changing market conditions are creating a situation the depletion of oil in storage tanks that can create a surge in oil prices to still higher levels, because of lower inventory levels at Cushing....

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Some of the concern about the economy comes from the economic damage done by the coronavirus. The longer the shutdowns continue the more the damage. About 17 million have filed claims for unemployment benefits. The WSJ consensus of 57 economists is that 14.4 million jobs will be lost in coming months, and the unemployment rate will rise to a record 13% in June, from a 50 year low of 3.5% in February. The earliest the economy could go back to the level in February 2020 is 27 months says the WSJ economist survey. The brighter side of this comes in two aspects of this pandemic recovery curve. By flattening the curve and strict testing, contact tracing and isolation till the vaccine is developed about half the jobs lost can be recovered by the end of summer, says Moody's Analytics. The vaccine a year from now or in 9 months by November 2020 would allow the economy to recover faster. A more optimistic view comes from Daiwa Capital Markets which predicts many of people laid off will be recalled quickly allowing the labor market to recover in 6 months by September or October 2020. Only finance and real estate might take longer but most of the industries where the vast majority of jobs are could be back on their feet. The credible evidence supporting this perspective of a rebound comes from Colorado and Washington which require large employers to specify whether layoffs are temporary or permanent, 70% this year are temporary. Compare this to the prior 2009 recession where this figure was less than 1%- as reported by WSJ. The big push in this direction will be the $2 trillion that the Trump administration and U.S. Congress have committed to this task. Even more so is the determination of president Trump to protect American workers at all costs, that every job counts, and that businesses without exception to get the money have to show that workers are retained. The very success of the aid is being judged by how quickly people are back to work. Now for a look at where the situation is today- Oxford Economics, a UK based forecasting and consulting firm, projects 27.9 million jobs lost with industries other than those ordered to close making up 8 to 10 million of that number. It projects April's report will will capture late March layoffs. It will show cuts to 3.4 million business services workers, including lawyers, software groups, architects and consultants, advertising professionals, in addition to 1.5 million non-essential healthcare workers, 100,000 information workers. One conclusion of this report is that the virus does not discriminate across business groups and business service workers are also affected. Many companies that were hiring will cancel that move and many will cut hours worked. Many of these business services are not a priority. Hospitals are affected too, as they cut elective surgical procedures and routine care that are major revenue sources. Some are now charging for telemedicine visits to maintain some revenue stream. State and local governments employ 20 million workers. As tax receipts decline these local governments will face choices of cutting payrolls and services without enough federal government relief. In a way laying off workers and having them take unemployment benefits shifts that burden to the federal government so that services for overtime to police and paramedics, retention and deployment of nurses in schools.    ...

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Jon Hilsenrath of WSJ provides an illuminating account of how Daniel Tarullo as head of the Large Institution Supervision Coordination Committee has changed the way bank supervision and rules are set for U.S. banks since the days of the 2008 financial crisis. Tarullo started the effort under Ben Bernanke and continues this in 2014-2015 under Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen. The New York Fed is seen as ineffective in bank supervision and the supervisory role is now entirely performed under the leadership of Tarullo, assisted by Kenneth Gibson and Timothy Clark. The trio are some of the great unsung heroes of the effort to put the U.S. financial system and the economy on a safer footing.

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U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner says Republicans are working to thwart the Dodd-Frank legislation- by slowing down and diluting the impact of rules required to be written under Dodd-Frank, crimping the resources of regulatory agencies, and blocking the nominations of heads of regulatory agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

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The truth is very different from the rhetoric coming from the Obama administration about helping Main Street America and ordinary workers against "fat-cat bankers," says Goldfarb. Under the Obama administration banks have grown larger and gained more influence over administration decisions. No conditions were made part of the agreement that would require banks to lend a portion of the money handed out to the banks to ordinary borrowers. And not much of significance was done to help homeowners under water, which would enable a faster recovery. In this respect the policies slanted in favor of banks of the Obama administration worsened the prospects of an economic recovery. Experts from Reagan advisor Martin Feldstein- who as early as 2008 advocated serious help to homeowners under water to reduce principal and interest- to the FDIC's Sheila Bair and Princeton Prof. Krugman, across the ideological spectrum, perceived this being in the national interest. Feldstein's first op-ed on his plan appeared in the Wall Street Journal on 3/7/2008, followed by ones on 4/15/2008, 10/4/2008, 1/20/2010/ 10/12/2011 in WSJ, and a oped on 10/30/2008 in the Washington Post, repeating the call for siginificant debt reduction to homeowners. Banks had extraordinary influence on successive administrations in the U.S., both Republican and Democratic- the Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations- so that policy actions could be distorted from what would otherwise take place. A study by two University of Michigan professors shows that banks did not increase lending after receiving government money. Instead taxpayer money was used to invest in risky securities for profits from short term price movements, resulting in gains of about 10% in investment returns. Ran Duchin, one of the two professors, says helping ordinary borrowers was not the most profitable use of capital for banks. Without the necessary conditions from the Obama administration, the banks depolyed capital in ways that did not help the economy. Similiarly when banks needed to be restructured no preparatory action was taken because of resistance within the administration- a request by President Obama to Treasury Secretary Geithner for preparing a plan for the restructuring of Citigroup was ignored, according to a report by Goldfarb and Wallsten on 9/17/2011 in the Washington Post....

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Barry Ritholtz lists the causes of the financial crisis, He says New York Mayor Bloomberg's exoneration of the financial industry is simply false- what he calls "the Big Lie"- even though Congress, regulators and the Greenspan Fed acted irresponsibly and created favorable conditions for the actions of the financial industry.

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Did U.S. Treaury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, ignore a key request by President Obama to present plans for the restructuring of Citigroup after the government bailout of Citigroup? Ron Suskind says this is what happened in his book on the Obama administration and how the White House operated to make key decisions. Ron Suskind, intervewed key members of the Obama White House economic policy team, Lawrence Summers, Christina Romer, Peter Orszag. In all Suskind conducted 700 hours of interviews for his new book in Sept 2011: "Confidence Men: Wall Street, Washington and the Education of a President." According to the book, in early 2009 after Obama authorized a series of stress tests for banks he told Geithner to develop a plan for restructuring Citigroup. A month later at a meeting not attended by Geithner Obama raised a question about the status of the plan. He was told by Romer that no restructuring plan had been developed for Citi. Suskind says Geithner disagreed about a plan to restructure Citi and decided to ignore the request. Geithner and the Treasury Department say Obama asked Geithner to develop a backup plan to overhaul banks if the government was forced to keep a big ownership stake in the companies, and "there was fortunately never a need to put them in place." Geithner told Suskind that he doesn't slow-walk the President on any matter. Other aspects of the operation of the economic policy team that Suskind covers are a series of memos from top aide Pete Rouse raising questions that ongoing communication between some members of the economic team and Summers was giving Summers power to shape policy. Summers, Director of the National Economic Council, is shown as trying to keep out the views of Romer and budget director Orszag from reaching the President without going through him. When Orszag gives a private report to the president on the deficit, Summers objects saying that this was immoral. Obama lacked the fresh ideas needed to tackle the problems created by the mortgage and banking crisis of 2008, when he used the Clinton administration economic policy team of the 1990's- Rubin, Bernanke, Summers and Geithner. Fresh approaches were needed two decades after Clinton's election in 1992, and the Bush administration that followed, as many of the problems developed during this period. The similiar embedded thinking was shared during the Clinton and Bush administrations and the economic advisors about dealings with the banking sector, but the situation for deficits, unemployment, housing, and the economy had completely changed requiring fresh approaches. ...

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Portugal's economy is shrinking. Austerity measures taken in exchange for 78 billion euros from the IMF and the EU under a May, 2011 agreement have reduced the prospects of growth. The ratio of debt to GDP was 107% in May 2011. It is expected to reach 118% in 2013 because the economy is shrinking- even though Portugal will have achieved its targets for reducing the budget deficit. Portugal's finance minister, Vitor Gaspar, a former ECB research director, has reduced the budget deficit by one third by cutting spending, pensions, wages and increasing taxes. GDP fell by 1.5% in 2011 and is expected to decline by 3% in 2012. Even the IMF says in its recent economic review that if growth is lacking the debt of Portugal "would not be sustainable." David Bencek, analyst at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, says that the Portuguese economy lacks the structure needed to grow, and therefore has debt that is unsustainable. Portugal lacks a manufacturing base and exports, and was just emerging from decades of neglect by military rulers of education and other essential parts of a modern economy when it joined the EU....

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Applebaum talks to two researchers at the University of Chicago and Princeton, Prof. Sufi and Prof. Mian, on the record of U.S. president Obama and Fed chairman Bernanke in helping homeowners facing foreclosure and underwater borrowers, comparing that record with their record in helping the banks. The issue is relevant as the policy and handling of homeowners had to be part of an overall effective plan for recovery in the U.S. economy, because ultimately without the U.S. consumer any recovery would be weak in the long run- a situation the U.S. faces in early 2014. The response to the issue of irresponsible homeowners borrowing beyond the limit without an equally robust response to irresponsible bank management that allowed wildly excessive leveraging of assets, and successful aggressive lobbying by banks in a shortsighted policy of going through with a wave of foreclosures; besides creating questions of fairness and equitable handling of the problem, also had major ramifications for the future of the U.S. and global economic growth. Here Christina Romer and other administration advisors say Bernanke was right in tackling the problem from the perspective of the banks needing to be recapitalized. Thoughtful advisors looking at the entire problem, Martin Feldstein and Sheila Bair strongly pushed for providing the same help to homeowners without getting caught up in the issue of who was responsible home buyers or the banks, and looking at the interests of the U.S. economy and the U.S. people. Proposals by Feldstein and Bair were equally robust in helping banks as they were in helping homeowners, only the banks understood their interests narrowly and had more access to policymakers in the Bush, as well as the Obama administration, Paulson as well as Geithner. This leaves us with the ultimate irony of the Obama administration pushing for the minimum wage, even to the point of electoral posture, when lasting damage had been inflicted on homeowners from the weaker portions of America's middle class by a policy that went against what two respected financial and economic experts from the Reagan period, Sheila and Bair had strongly advocated. See links and groups on Feldstein and Bair. Applebaum has followed most aspects of this problem closely and continues to provide exceptional reporting including the piece on the thinking of new Fed chairman, Janet Yellen. Private enterprise rules that require management at banks just as for other companies to take responsibility for failures, and be replaced with new management, was largely avoided leading to a fundamental failure in how a free market economy such as the U.S. and western European economies are supposed to function. Rules aggressively pushed by Geithner's mentor Treasury Secretary Rubin for a vigorous cleanup at banks in South Korea during a similiar situation in 1997, were not followed in any way here, also setting wrong precedents for the long run. ...

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Ireland and Portugal both have debt to GDP ratios of more than 100%. Still Ireland is better positioned to weather the eurozone crisis. Foreign investment attracted by low taxes and an educated labor force gives Ireland signficant advantages to return to growth. Citigroup forecasts show a 5.5% decline in GDP for Portugal in 2012, and large probabilities that the deficit will overshoot. Ireland expects 0.5% growth in 2012. Ireland's exports are 60% of GDP, compared to 24% for Portugal. Yields on Portuguese bonds due 2020 are at 13%, compared to less than 7% for Ireland. But funding Portugal through the end of 2015 is expected to cost 40 billion euros, according to Capital Economics estimates, or only 0.4% of eurozone GDP, making the problem in Portugal very manageable for the EU.

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Friedman compares the anti-corruption movements in India and the U.S., the world's two largest democracies. The Occupy Wall Street anti-corruption movement in the U.S. focusses on the excessive influence of banks on lawmakers, regulators, and the government, through the use of campaign money, revolving door for government officials and regulators to join banks, and intense lobbying. The anti-corruption movement focusses on corruption in government at higher levels, such as the handling of government licenses, and at the basic levels of needing to bribe officials for something as simple as getting a birth certificate or other government document. Both have pernicious effects, in the U.S. excesssive bank influence leads to taking excessive risk for higher bonuses, putting the entire financial system at risk and creating a crisis in housing that delays the economic recovery. And in India the corruption leads to retarded progress, as funds to invest in infrastructure and development are siphoned off, business and entrepreneurs are required to pay bribes at each step, and ordinary people face the need to pay bribes for the most routine interactions with government officials. In the process this creates more unequal societies by skewing the distribution of benefits from wealth created to groups that are better equipped to game the system. The economic system once distorted in these ways has tendencies to take talent away from productive activity and innovation which create wealth, and direct it towards speculative activities....