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Chevron CEO John Watson says the U.S. needs more affordable energy, and this means it needs to find more fossil fuels. It needs more oil gas and coal. He says the U.S. should take advantage of its own fossil fuel resources. People want strong environmental standards, but as Watson puts it, their top most priority is affordable energy which creates economic growth and jobs. He criticizes the Obama administration for not pushing ahead with developing of U.S. offshore oil, because BP's problems were not systemic and industry wide. He calls for dramatically increasing U.S. oil production, and doing this immediately. Worldwide Chevron plans to invest $26 billion for its exploration budget, and plans to drill in Australia, Western Africa, Gulf of Thailand and other locations. Watson points out that the dynamics of oil production are affected by two factors, price and technology. With current prices at over $100 a barrel more oil is accessible. At these prices new technologies can make it possible to use existing older wells to increase production. He cites the example of Bakersfield, where steam flooding is helping get 70 to 80 barrels out of every 100 barrels in the ground, when in the past Chevron could only get 10-20 barrels of oil. Another technology he mentions is hydrofracking for producing large and cheap supplies of natural gas. Chevron acquired Atlas Energy for $3.2 billion in 2010 to enter this market. Watson's overall emphasis is on the U.S. going for affordable energy and affordable conservation that will create economic growth and a better future....

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A formal lifting of economic sanctions takes place in Jan 2016 with the implementation of the nuclear deal with Iran, a landmark event.

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Tyler Cowan says slower growth in India is a troubling sign in 2012, and as significant if not more than the eurozone crisis. A less mentioned and major problem is the low productivity in agriculture, and he points to Japan, Taiwan, and S. Korea where major increases in agricultural productivity preceded successful industrialization. With growing population and continued growth India will be one of the largest economies in the world. The other major problem is shortages of energy supplies and the inability of state owned company, Coal India, to upgrade technology and increase output.

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CNN reporter Cassie Spodak provides this exceptional report into the minds of New Hampshire Democratic voters who gave Bernie Sanders a 22 percent lead in the New Hampshire Democratic primary over Hillary Clinton. In October 2016 Hillary Clinton has the support of Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. She described it as "100 percent support" in television debate. Sanders has appeared with Clinton twice, and campaigned 4 times in New Hampshire, and continually across the country. Younger New Hampshire voters still long for Sanders as their favored candidate. Older voters and some who have been motivated by Sanders to run for local office see the shaping of the Democratic Party platform as a victory for Sanders. Key planks of Sanders, taxes on the wealthy and higher incomes to pay for student tuition, infrastructure, and helping working class families, are now key parts of the Democratic platform. These voters see this as a pragmatic step and are enthusiastic in their support for Hillary Clinton. Overall Clinton now has 87 percent of Democratic voter support in New Hampshire according to a WMUR/UNH poll in mid October 2016, and she is doing well with millenials and independents nationally, a critical bloc of voters for Clinton to show nationwide support. One member of the steering committee for Sanders in New Hampshire named Dudley Dudley, reflects the opinion that has shifted the party to emerge united during and even more so in the final months of the presidential campaign of 2016- she tells the CNN reporter Spodak that she supports Hillary because "of the way she has grown, and stretched," and the way Clinton and Sanders are now campaigning together and working together. Both Clinton and Sanders deserve credit for their extraordinary ability to grow during their campaigns and during the party's way to shape the way forward. ...

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This analysis of coal use using graphs shows a clear move away from coal in the world, except for two growth markets China and India which account for 60% of the increase in coal use since 2008. India has gone black in its shift to increasing use of coal. China has begun the shift away from coal to address the smog over large urban areas, poor air quality and health impact of coal use. Because China used five times the coal used by India in 2017, the overall impact in China and India is showing a shift away from coal to hydropower, other renewables including solar energy. It is likely that India will make the shift following China's example in the future. 

The trend is clear when one looks at the incremental terawatt hour and where it comes from. The shift is clear to renewables, hydropower, and non fossil uses in the rest of the World and China which account for most of the coal use in the world.

 

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Democrats face an uphill battle to recover lost territory during the Obama presidency. The efforts to promote Trans Pacific Trade Agreement by Obama against the interests of the unions, working class Americans, is one example of the way president Obama had alienated working class Americans. By being too close to Silicon Valley and failing to understand the changes in states with blue collar workers Democrats lost some of the working class base that had always voted Democratic. On social issues the party drifted too far in one direction in appealing to small groups and in the process drifting away from blue collar workers who were Democratic in the past but did not share the same passion for these issues. About 90% of better educated Americans were liberal yet among blue collar workers who had voted Democratic in the 1990's only 60% were liberal in the same way. The changes in America's landscape with the shift of manufacturing centres away from cities such as Pittsburgh to blue collar suburbs stretching from Michigan and Wisconsin to the Carolinas and the Deep South, created a new blue collar worker base that was more aligned with Republicans on social issues such as abortion, LGBT, and gun control. As a result the conservative base of the Republican Party now finds itself aligned with the blue collar worker, while the Democratic Party in places like New York and California is more aligned with the workers in the financial industry and in Silicon Valley. The improving economy gives more room for Republicans even with policies that might not help its new working class base as it strives to meet policy demands from wealthier Americans in the Republican Party.   ...

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David Wessel says there are three hypotheses about the slow recovery with growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2011, estimated growth of 1.4-1.5% for the second quarter. The first, is that this is transitory, with gas prices, Japan's tsunami disrupting supply chians, and Europe's poor handling of the financial crisis. This he scores as wishful thinking. The second, that the stimulus was too small, the need for a second stimulus, or the related hypothesis of the large uncertainty hanging over business, including the debt ceiling negotiations, deficit etc. This he scores as more convincing, but one is not sure different policies would have led to a different situation. The third hypothesis is that the underlying diagnosis of the economy itself was hopeful but flawed and wrong. Hope about the housing market- which has been proved wrong. The same for exports, or consumer spending. Wessel cites Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt's new book on the afterperiod of financial crises and asset bubbles, with data going back to many historical periods showing that the periods following crises are difficult having protracted periods of slow or marginal economic growth....

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There are serious issues facing crude oil production from Alberta tar sands which stem from environmental concerns, and the captal intensive, energy intensive, nature of production from tar sands. According to a recent RAND study energy production from tar sands causes 10-30% more greenhouse gas emissions. Add to that destruction of boreal forest, destruction of bird life, and the contamination of water supplies from the lake size tailings ponds used to store spent water from oil sands projects. Large amounts of steam are needed to separate the dirt from the oil in the tar sands. According to Environmental Defence about 4 billion litres of contaminated water leaked from these tailings ponds and this seepage is polluting rivers in Northern Canada. The technology for trapping and storing the carbon dioxide from the production process is still in the research stage. The other hurdle facing the tar sands development is the price of crude which is around $49 a barrel. While some older tar sands plants can operate even at $30 a barrel, newer operations need $60 or $70 per barrel for acceptable returns, according to Prof. Leach, a professor of environmental economics at the University of Alberta. For these reasons Canadian tar sands production which is now at 1.2 million barrels a day is not likely to go much higher or approach the 3.5 million barrels a day predicted for 2015. Petro-Canada said it would suspend 23.8 billion dollars of expansions in Alberta to tar sands projects, and Canadian Natural Resources is cutting its capital spending in half. ...

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Laurence Meyer of Macroeconomics Advisors, a former Fed governor, says monetary policy will offset the effects of tighter fiscal policies and budget cuts. This is not stated explicitly he says, but Bernanke will counteract the effects of budget cuts and austerity policies by putting off rate hikes. The expiry in December 2011 of a compromise reached between the GOP and Obama to lower payroll taxes and offering business a tax break on capital investment will lead to a reduction in GDP by 1% in 2012, according to Mark Zandl, of Moody's Analytics. Pressure for budget cuts could add another half percentage point reduction in GDP, according to IHS Consultants. Bernanke will be mindful of these considerations as he considers any rate hikes in 2012.