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Saudi Oil minister Ali Naimi increased his previous estimate for oil prices needed to balance the needs of producers and consumers. His new estimate is $90, up from the previous estimate of $80. This will give upward momentum to oil prices. The fall in the price of the dollar is affecting OPEC countries, including Libya, Algeria and Venezuela. These countries are looking for a price of $100.

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Estimates of the contraction of the Iranian economy in 2012-2013 show GDP declines for 2012 and 2013. The IMF estimate of the economic contraction for fiscal year ending March 2013 was 6%. Former president Ahmadinejad's policies led to hyper inflation, a sharp depreciation of the currency rial, similiar to the situation in Venezuela under Chavez and Maduro. To get a sense of the the scale of the damage to the Iranian economy- a decline of 39% in vehicle production in 2012 with the lack of essental parts and decline in demand, oil production declining to about 700,000 barrels at one point in 2013 from over 2 million barrels in the period before 2012. This was a result of lack of access to needed technology and parts as sanctions began to take a toll, and because of the decline in exports from the enforcing of sanctions by 2013. By June 2014 the newly elected leader Rouhani had made economic recovery the to priority- inflation had been cut in half and the rial currency had recovered from the lows in 2012-2013, and oil production increased to 1.2 million barrels. The IMF forecast is for GDP growth of 2.35% for 2015. The auto maker Khodro Industrial Group is keen on increasing production and partnering again with Renault, which left the country with the sanctions. Iran's oil producing company estimate is that about 700,000 increase in production could be achieved quickly with the lifting of sanctions for oil technology and parts. Rouhani has put together a large group of business leaders inside Iran and overseas to improve Iran's image with investors and attract foreign investment....

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Japan's acute shortage of labor has even spread to the government sector says this report in DW.com. Japan's aging population means a growing need for immigrants from Vietnam and other countries. Nursing, elderly care had shortages which have spread to construction and delivery business, taxis, forestry companies and train operators. Many jobs remain unfilled. It is a situation the US may also experience in a few years as it is feeling the effects of shortages of workers in industries such as hospitality. NK Logisitics Research estimate is that 34% of goods will remain undelivered by 2030 because of lack of transport workers, that is 940 million tons of goods undelivered every year. Already taxi drivers have shrunk by 40% from the peak in 2009. Japan's immigration policy planned for an influx of 345,000 skilled workers over 5 years in 2019 but this came a bit late as the pandemic delayed the influx. Now it has a new urgency. Even with the influx of new immigrants Germany has 1.6 million jobs unfilled according to DW.com citing research in an accompanying article on German workers in today's Lyrarc.com. The US needs an organized program of immigration to attract foreign workers yet the influx from Venezuela of mostly middle class educated people into the US through  events no one had foreseen or expected may years from now be seen as meeting the needs of sectors in the American economy that needs good workers, in the same way that Japan and Germany see their economies and worker shortages. ...

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Daniel Yergin of consultancy firm IHS describes the geopolitical disputes in the Middle East between Russia, Saudi Arabia, and Iran that are leading to likely continued oversupply of oil in 2016, keeping prices in the $30-$40 range. Saudi Arabia is not likely to change its policy of going after market share, Venezuela is affected but lacks a voice in OPEC decisions, Russia continues its policies in Syria and Iraq under the Putin government affecting other Sunni states, and Iran following the lifting of sanctions is likely to ramp up supply to make up for its lost market share- all leading to an extended period of low prices. This situation benefits China, the European Union countries, India, Turkey and the U.S. in a period of slow economic growth in 2015-2016. Russia looks to use this period of low oil prices to shift to domestic industry after a period of rising imports when oil prices were high. The Saudis seeing their interests in the region threatened by Iran and Russia, and dissatisfied with the foreign policy of president Obama, see a policy of pushing for market share as appropriate in the current geopolitics of the region....

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Gold reaches $983 a troy ounce, nearing its all time high of $1003 of March 2008. Russia, China, Venezuela and other countries which have large dollar reserves are building up their gold holdings to reduce the risk of holding masssive dollar reserves which are going down in value. Investors are also buying up gold as a global liquidity cycle is taking hold, with the liquidity pumped in by the Federal Reserve to fight the credit freeze.

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Looking around Havana U.S. president Obama finds a country stuck in the 1950's. His observation: "You drive around Havana and you say, 'This economy is not working' ...It looks like it did in the 1950's." Obama's view on relations with Cuba was that things have changed, with younger Cubans especially looking to integrate with the world economy for a better life. This is the same in Venezuela, in Argentina. His view: "I know the history, but I refuse to be trapped by it."

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A complete reversal of the Monroe Doctrine (US president Monroe 1817-1825) policies -that kept the American continent north and south free of colonial European powers- is an affront to the US and has cost the US in Latin America. With fentanyl deaths and drug trafficking, migrant trafficking, interference by foreign powers in the Americas In Cuba, Venezuela and other countries, and ports owned by China in South America.  Hong Kong magnate Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings sale of Panama Canal ports to Black Rock for $23 billion takes place on March 4, 2025. The two ports on both sides of the Panama Canal will now be in American hands. Li Ka Shing started out fleeing from the devastated China of the Sino Japanese war to the British colony of Hong Kong, left school at 15 to work and started out with a small plastics factory in 60's Hong Kong. He then branched out into real estate as Hong Kong's economy expanded, and in the 2000-2020 period with rapid growth of China with US assistance (Clinton and Bush administrations) moved to acquire most of the ports and container terminals in the world. It is these ports that are now being bought back by the US. 23 ports and container terminals in 43 countries will now be sold back by Li Ka-Shing's Hutchison Holdings back to Black Rock under an agreement. None of this could have happened under the lackadiasical policies of previous administrations that led to first affront and then disastrous effects of migrant trafficking and drug trafficking in this hemisphere.   ...

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Privileged minorities ethnic or white among large native populations. Amy Chua argues that free markets that empower the white minority giving it special privileged status, and democracy that empowers the native peoples, leads to conflict and exacerbates tensions. She talks about the Venezuelan experience with Chavez. Before Chavez Venezuela had free markets and elections in which two parties alternately controlled the government. Even before Reagan era and post Reagan era promotion of free markets and democracy this existed. However people were fed up with corruption and the native peoples did not see their lives improve. They tried a populist politician in Chavez who redistributes petroleum wealth to the poorer classes. Some of this tension is inevitable, but if all sides use good sense and understanding, and manage this tension constructively there still exists a better situation than there was before- when looking at overall public welfare and considering the welfare of the people and the educated professional classes. When there is a failure to work together it shows the shortsightedness of both sides, the poor understanding and lack of joint effort for mutual benefits, and not the shortsightedness of free markets and democracy. And one is not talking of free markets as American type, but free markets as crafted for each individual country based on its own history, culture, time and place, as free markets are not the same in America, Britain, Germany, France, Japan and South Korea, China and India in the post war period. China is not even a democracy and has practiced one of the wildest kind of free market economy based on its own unique situation, calculated consensus to use exports, foreign investment, and domestic investment in infrastructure as engines of development- its own peculiar use of free market ideas for its own situation. If it works, for as long as it works its good. Now as the situation changes with loss of export markets expected in 2009, China is changing to another kind of use of free market ideas tailored to its idea of free markets for development of the Chinese economy and distribution of benefits to urban and rural areas. ...

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U.S. president Obama visits Saudi Arabia in April 2016. President Obama presents arguments for forging "a cold peace" between Iran and Saudi Arabia after proxy conflicts in the Middle East. During the visit president Obama will encourage dialogue between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at a time when Saudis are skeptical about U.S. policies in the region. Saudi Arabia has reduced the economic gains to Iran from lifting of sanctions and entering the oil market by ramping up Saudi production to bring down prices. The situation also affects Russia and Venezuela.

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OPEC fails to agree on increasing production quotas at its meeting in June 2011. Iran, Venezuela, Ecuador, and a number of other countries which have very little spare capacity were against increasing the quotas. The Saudis, the UAE, Kuwait argued for an increase because of increasing demand and disruptions in the supply from Libya and other parts of the Middle East. The Saudi oil minister described this as the most difficult OPEC meeting he has attended. Analysts expect the Saudis to increase production in the absence of an OPEC agreement.

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Making some territorial concessions appears to be the only way for peace talks to succeed. For a long time there was insistence on territorial sovereignty of Ukraine by EU and NATO leaders. This appears to have prolonged the war- with needless loss of life on both sides, and costly damage to Ukraine infrastructure, a population that had to face additional winters and hardship in war ravaged areas. NATO's Stoltenberg from Norway, leaders of northern Nordic and Baltic countries, the UK, could take that position without having to face the hardship of the war. NATO had to be re-formed under a new name and new structure  following the collapse of the Soviet Union, with wariness about the possibility of centuries old since 1700 UK and Nordic historical adversarial relationship with Russia casting a shadow over that organization, and embroiling the US in conflicts not of its own choice or of wise leadership. This is the root cause of the Ukraine war. It would have been best to completely restructure NATO and give it a new name without Northern European nations leading it. Principles matter once soviet communism was no longer there NATO formed for its expansionism in 1950's had served it's purpose. Rasmussen from Denmark and Stoltenberg from Norway led the organization for the last decade and half from 2009-2014 and 2014 to 2025, with backing from Obama/Merkel for most of the period of the war in Ukraine. Also most of the period NATO expanded to Russian borders happened under Northern European leaders from Spain, Britain and Nordics (Solana, Robertson, Scheffer, Rasmussen and Stoltenberg) and the organization NATO getting the northern European slant based on historical adversarial relationship of Britain and Russia since 1700- for no other reason than the British wanting to protect its large Empire and commerce in India which in the 18th and 19th century included most of Asia. Under Robertson the UK Defense Secretary much of this transformation into turning NATO into something anti-Russian happened which was primarily because of British and Nordic perceptions of Russia as an adversary. Robertson added the following countries at the Prague Summit in 2002 to NATO- the Baltics, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia. Russia faced internal upheaval in those years and Yeltsin in resigned in 1999, Putin was elected in 2000. It is clear that Russia had suffered severe economic hardship in that period and Putin's first goal in 2002 was to stabilize the economy.  It could be said that this turning NATO over to UK and Nordics was a huge mistake considering that Russia was still the largest nuclear power after the US, and British policy was now determining US policy. And Britain's Robertson/NATO should not have involved itself in the Afghanistan war using Article 5, as the US could have handled this alone and limited that engagement. It got US involved in another conflict, conflict with Russia that was to come in Ukraine on the side of the Baltics and Ukraine, without US clearly understanding what the roots of that war was about and implied confrontation with Russia 20 years after the Prague Summit in 2002 under George Bush junior. The incompetence of Bush and Obama/Merkel laid the seeds of the Ukraine war in 2022 following Robertson, Rasmussen, Stoltenberg, small Nordic nations and Britain creating a conflict that did not need to happen, with loss of hundreds of thousands of lives of Russian speaking fraternal peoples of both Russia and Ukraine. The Republican sentiment under DJT of the tragedy of such huge losses of young people, and desire to end this loss of life, can nowhere be seen in bellicose talk in northern European nations, that take the US for granted to fight their wars.  The wisdom of Washington, Lincoln and TR/FDR clearly caution in getting involved in European centuries old animosities. For the US it meant in practical terms that it could no longer carry out the Monroe Doctrine essential for peace and good governance in the western hemisphere as only a Russia desperate to make its views known about NATO would interfere in the western hemisphere against US assertion of the Monroe Doctrine with the US Navy. Instead drug trafficking gangs took over Latin American countries and created a flow of fentanyl and millions of people through migrant traffickers across the US southern border. As America has expressed its concern for loss of Russian and Ukrainian men in the war for the first time under DJT Russia has distanced itself from Venezuela, Mexico and Latin America. The loss of hundreds of thousands of young Americans to fentanyl is a shared tragedy with the loss of hundreds of thousands of young Russians and Ukrainians in the last decade. How reliable are Northern European countries when it comes to protecting the eastern seaboard of the US with the acquisition of Greenland? It is a policy pursued by presidents since the Alaska Acquisition from Russia. By Seward, Teddy Roosevelt, Harry Truman and DJT. Denmark the land where NATO secretary general Rasmussen was from followed by Stoltenberg from Norway  (for 15 of the years of the war in Ukraine 2010-2025) the US efforts to protect its eastern seaboard are rebuffed by both Denmark and Norway, and the US presented in a negative light as an imperialist power in the face of Danish East India Company's  colonial attitude since 1700 clearly imitating the colonial British East India company.  It shows Northern European nations looking out for themselves not for the US, and embroiling the US in their wars at the cost of the entire western hemisphere being destabilized. The population of UK, Denmark and Norway, Baltics is far less than the Mumbai, Shanghai, Sao Paulo , Berlin and Tokyo regions. Should the views of a small population in northern Europe of 2% of the total determine the future of US, Europe, China, India, Brazil, and other parts of the world with 5 billion people the 98%, when issues of war and nuclear conflict, nuclear buildup, the western hemisphere destabilized with drug trafficking gangs running rampant in countries, divide the world in opposing blocs, when the wellbeing of most of the world's people in Asia and Latin America, Africa is at stake by establishing a essential degree of cooperation by all sides. The US under DJT has chosen a wise policy of cooperation over conflict -with China, with Russia, with all the major powers, and with smaller powers. Reading the wisdom contained in the writings of Washington, Lincoln, TR/FDR confirms it is clearly the wise choice. ...

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As expected Iran boycotts the talks in Doha of 16 major oil producers seeking to stabilize oil prices. Saudi Arabia, Russia, Qatar and Venezuela sought to stabilize oil production at January levels to support oil prices. Wth the Saudia and Russia producing all out, Iran seeks to do the same, effectively closing the door on any agreement to freeze production levels.

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This essay in WSJ is from Marco Rubio, Senator from Florida, and now Secretary of State in the second term DJT administration. Here Rubio points to his first visit as a return to focus on the American continent, on Central America and South America, which was neglected since the Kennedy administration in 1961 when JFK launched the Alliance for Progress (Allianza para Progreso). Like JFK Rubio visited Central American countries the source in the last decade in addition to Venezuela of much of the illegal migration north to the US. After support for failed dictatorships under the Eisenhower administration, JFK made Latin America a priority. This can be seen in the JFK Nixon debates. 64 Years after the conference in Uruguay's Punta del Este in 1961, America is back to square one with the failed Central American countries from gangs plus crime and from Venezuela's economy collapsing from inflation plus mismanagement with a socialist experiment. Kennedy said-"To our sister republics south of our border, we offer a special pledge – to convert our good words into good deeds – in a new alliance for progress – to assist free men and free governments in casting off the chains of poverty." -- John F. Kennedy, Inaugural Address, January 20, 1961 Kennedy said of the Alliance for Progress "a vast cooperative effort, unparalleled in magnitude and nobility of purpose to satisfy the basic needs of the [Latin] American people for homes, work and land, health and schools – techo, trabajo y tierra, salud y escuela." Speaking in the White House on March 13, 1961, JFK said to more than two hundred Latin American diplomats,  "Let me be the first to admit that we North Americans have not always grasped the significance of this common mission." Yet at the same time, "many in your own countries have not fully understood the urgency of the need to lift people from poverty and ignorance and despair." ...

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U.S. president Trump delivers a forceful speech at the UN General Assembly. He says the U.S. would take strong action against North Korea, and called both Iran and North Korea "rogue nations." President Bush first used the language of "rogue nations" for North Korea and Iran in a speech at West Point Military Academy in June 2002. In that speech Bush also said he reserved the right for pre-emptive action. This was followed by the invasion of Iraq. Trump also said the U.S. was "prepared to take further action" on Venezuela. French president Macron offered his own view, that the door for dialogue was open with North Korea. Prime minister Netanyahu of Israel affirmed Trump's statements on Iran calling Iran's access to nuclear weapons dangerous.  Fifteen years after Bush's speech the situation has not changed. In some ways it has deteriorated with the war in Syria, and continuing war in Iraq, the refugee crisis, and the ballistic missile testing by North Korea. ...

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US president DJT speaks at the Economic Club of Detroit, looking back at a year of rapid action on the US Border, Big Beautiful Bill, Tariffs action, Cutting Cost of Living action on several fronts, and action against drug/people trafficking by Venezuela, Mexico. Highlights of the speech which comes to a state that decided the 2016 election for DJT and which is the center of America's automobile industry started by Henry Ford in Dearborn, Michigan. He had restored the automobile industry to the days when it was the leader in the world and when names such as Henry Ford, Alfred Sloan of General Motors, were the envy of the world, by bringing auto manufacturing back from places like Mexico, Japan and Germany. Back to America after years of reckless outshoring by American business under the Bush, Clinton, Bush and Obama administrations, on the advice of equally reckless economists and advisors to these administrations. The president did not say this but this restoration continued in a different way for labor under the Biden administration that followed DJT policies but focused on the other side of the coin for the auto industry - protecting worker's wages by Biden standing on a picket line for the strike by unions for higher wages. After these wages were restored from years of outshoring and pressure on wages, the need to do the work of bringing companies back through tariffs on imports as leverage in tough negotiations with Japan, South Korea and Germany was left to DJT and his administration. The president stated clearly that the economists and predictions were proved wrong on tariffs as none of these predictions of tariffs passed on to American buyers have come true. As DJT made certain the companies not to lose their business in the US decided to avoid taking that road and acted to reduce their profit margins and costs. As Scott Bessent, a veteran of Wall Street and now Treasury Secretary who conducted these negotiations for DJT, has repeatedly pointed out the tariffs were a way to get these tough negotiators and their governments from Japan, S. Korea and Germany to cooperate. It is nowhere written in the code of fair conduct of nations that the US should helplessly after decades of letting these countries benefit put its workers out of work and its industries get destroyed, when the US was taking on the additional burden of protecting these nations from hostile neighbors. ...

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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions....

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Venezuelan illegal immigrant lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court for birthright citizenship. What did the US Supreme Court rule? Alongside we provide the summary of the US Supreme Court landmark decision which is coming in two parts, this being just the first. Simply stated the US SC ruled that district courts can give the plaintiffs relief in their individual circumstances but do not have the authority to extend this to into a "universal injunction." Three states and a Venezuelan illegal immigrant allowed into the US under the asylum policy make the case. And each case may have individual merits but does it apply to a whole geopolitical event? Yet the sheer numbers, the scale running into millions of people, amounting to it being an invasion, a geopolitical event resulting from Bush-Obama-Trump-Biden failures to assert the Monroe Doctrine and prevent intervention by foreign, specifically European powers in the affairs of the American continent. Yet at no point in the administration of the last 9 years has this situation been anticipated or this situation been singled out as one that no asylum policy of any nation is designed to tackle. The efforts to fix things as far away as the mountains of the Hindu Kush have frittered away the important resources of the US military to maintain the Monroe Doctrine. It can be said that the basic error was not to see president Monroe's policy for what it was - an effort to prevent the French, the Spanish or some other European power to bring back colonial rule or in some ways unsettle the affairs on this continent. The US Supreme Court is aware of the surroundings of this event as it takes up the issues of immigration and efforts by foreign powers to unsettle the fabric of the Nation. ...

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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How much of the rise in price of oil is from speculators? About 20%. How much money is chasing oil? About $85 billion or thereabouts. What is causing the volatility, price shock atmosphere? Losses in production in Venezuela after a strike, Nigerian production in a backward region (issues of redistribution of wealth and periodic violence), and Iraq (Sunni insurgency). And now the Iran standoff with the USA over nuclear proliferation. According to Cambridge Energy Research Associates, an energy consulting firm owned by IHS, Iraq is 900,000 barrels a day below its prewar output; Nigeria has shut 530,000 barrels a day; Venezuela is still 400,000 barrels below its prestrike production; and the Gulf of Mexico remains down by 330,000 barrels a day. In all, this amounts to more than two million barrels of disrupted oil, Cambridge Energy estimates. The impasse with Iran on nuclear proliferation is the latest factor in oil prices. One analyst says the hedge funds have come into this commodities market in a big way and are willing to take risks. Energy funds make up 5 percent of the global hedge fund business, with about $60 billion in assets, according to Peter C. Fusaro, principal at the Energy Hedge Fund Center, an online research community. The gains on the oil market have attracted a fresh class of investors: pension funds and mutual funds seeking to diversify their holdings. Their investments have been mostly channeled through a handful of commodity indexes, which have ballooned to $85 billion in a few years, according to Goldman Sachs. Goldman's index holds more than $55 billion, three times the amount in 2002....

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As OPEC members met again in June 2015 for the first time since the meeting in November 2014, there is a sense that OPEC no longer exerts the same influence on oil prices. There are 4000 oil companies in the U.S., says one U.S. State Department official, even if OPEC were to cut production the cuts could be matched by shale oil producers in the U.S. quickly increasing output. This is the new reality, say experts. OPEC expects to keep production at the same level of the current production ceiling of 30 million barrels a day in place for the 7th meeting in over 3 years. Algeria and Nigeria, both hurt badly by the drop in oil price, have called for cuts but failed to persuade the Saudis. With Russia unwilling to join a coordinated production cut, there is not much talk about doing this. The Saudis and Iraq have continued to pump more oil, with April 2015 production of 30.84 million barrels a day the highest monthly average since 2012. Other factors also remain in the minds of the Saudis and other producers such as the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar- policies on climate change, use of less energy and more from friendlier sources for the same amount of economic output demonstrated by countries such as Germany, advances in technology, energy saving transitions in emerging markets such as China and India....

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The Syrian war started with Arab Spring in 2011 and a popular uprising against the rule by a Alawite minority that came to power in a coup staged by the elder Assad in 1970, says this report on the civil war in Syria. The war dragged out over a decade with the northwest in the control of Kurds, and groups backed by Turkey. Groups backed by Turkey which want to restore Syria to its national origins before the current regime took Homs, Aleppo and Damascus in a week as Iran and Russia withdrew from the country following the war in Ukraine and the Israel conflict with Iran. The US has only a small presence in the country to protect against terrorist groups. One of the effects of the conflict is the flow of migrants to Europe through Hungary into Austria and into Germany during the Merkel years. The opposition to migration that led to the CDU's decline in popularity and to Brexit in Britain started with this flow of migration from North Africa and the Middle East conflicts emerging out of the Arab Spring. In Britain the migration was also from Poland and countries in Eastern Europe.  This led to Reform UK and the Brexit referendum. In the US it led to the Border becoming a major issue in 2016 with migrant surge from Mexico in the last years of Obama's second term.  The collapse of the Venezuelan economy, economic troubles in central America led to another surge in migration in 2021-2023 from these countries making the Border a major issue in the US in 2024, and giving DJT a second term in office in 2025.   ...