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WSJ Analysis of $1 trillion Medicaid Cuts in the One Big Beautiful Act-who it impacts most. It means less money for insurers, hospitals, and 9 million able bodied Medicaid recipients being moved to being covered by new employers. Under extension of Obamacare able bodied Americans were added to Medicaid in some of the states. Some states such as Texas and Florida and other southern states decided not to do this. The One Big Beautiful Act removes this extension of Obama care and the funding to states and adds the able bodied requirement to cut funding by about $1 trillion. Insurance companies who covered the insured and got payments from the federal government will lose these payments. Hospitals will also lose these payments from the federal government that sent money to the states for funding Medicaid. Overall Medicaid funding is proportionally cut more in Republican states. In Arizona, Kentucky and Virginia Medicaid cuts will be 18%, compared to 9% in New York and 13% in California. 93% of the cuts are in states that have expanded Medicaid to include able bodied adults. The Big Beautiful Act also cuts down on provider taxes which hospitals used to get more funding. Rural hospitals are given access to a $50 billion fund in the Act  so they can be kept open. ...

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Iran War and rescue of pilot of downed F15-E in mountainous terrain in southern Iran April 4 2026. CSAR or Search and Rescue Missions become a critical part of the war. The pilot was a colonel trained for the mission and spent 24 hours in mountainous terrain which was monitored by US forces, after intelligence located him in a mountain crevice. For this to be possible unlike in the Vietnam War and Korean War other nations are not involved as in the earlier Cold War.  The US under DJT as president has shifted to respecting Russia as a Northern European power that it can talk with (meetings with Putin in Alaska 2025) and China as a trade partner (planned meeting in Beijing in April 2026) that it can talk with unlike with previous administrations of Biden, Obama and Bush where China had afree hand in economic matters and global trade and Russia was shut out of the world economic system by elites who ran the government in the US at that time. Russia seeks reintegration in the world political and economic systems, and China seeks acceptance as an economic power which the US respects, both points in which the US has offered to accept. US has also repeated the line to China that it was not going to do the job of keeping Hormuz open for China and Japan to get 90% of oil imports, and in oding so risk losing its soldier's lives, while China and Japan can quietly watch doing nothing to help free navigation of international waters. Note that the narrowest strip of water of 13 miles separates Oman from Iran so that a part of these waters are on the Omani side and not on the Iranian side making free use of that Omani part under international law possible- in which sense Iranian hostile activity closing the Omani side also is a violation of free navigation. This is not pointed out by Iran or Japan or even Britain who are benefitting from US action and remaining silent or being ambivalent or accusing US of being interventionist even when everyone knows MAGA base rejected Bush in the Republican party and the elites and embraced DJT for great part because they want nothing to do with interventionist adventures in the Middle East for certain. US is getting a bum rap from European allies and from China, India, Japan and the media inside the US and in those countries as if the US seeks oil from the Middle East. It was Britain where a lot of the posturing goes on about non intervention that started this oil based intervention since 1900 in Iran itself, and in artificial states of Iraq, Syria, that it created out of the collapsed Ottoman Empire in World War 1. Sykes and Picot were the US and French diplomats who set that up. US under DJT has accomplished self sufficiency in oil and US has no need for anything from the Middle East, no desire to even get involved, and MAGA well grasps that fact and wants to keep it that way. Only nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles with long range to hit US and EU are reason for US action, which is reason enough for EU, China, Russia to set their own goals so that non proliferation in dangerous areas is prevented. So that the people of China, Russia, India, Europe and the rest of the world can enjoy the fruits of their own labors after a century of severe hardships and struggles which the American people if not their elites respect, and the fruits of peaceful cooperation which the American people extend to the World, and to China, Russia and India. ...

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The move by Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler to merge is seen as an effort to use consolidation as a way to tackle depressed demand. Ford and GM are struggling in foreign markets, as Toyota and VW have expanded in foreign markets, and Geely has expanded in China with stakes in Daimler and Volvo AB. Added costs for the shift to electric cars, higher emissions standards,  are also hurting car makers. Global new car sales of 96 million in 2018 are expected to decline by 4% in 2019, and remain sluggish, with the U.S. China trade war and Brexit taking its toll. Some car companies are particularly affected. Chrysler's European car factories ran at about 52% in 2018, well below European industry average of 73%.

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The deterioration in the Irish banking crisis. An additional 13 billion euros will be needed by Irish banks to pay bad real estate debt, after this round of stress tests in March 2011, according to Ireland's Central Bank. This is on top of the 85 billion euros rescue package after collapse of the banks, and the 10 billion euros given by the EU and the IMF. Some estimates say the cost of the banking bust could reach $140 billion for a country with GDP of $241 billion. Ireland's interest payments on debt are estimated to rise to 13% of government revenues by 2012. Serious calls are being made for bondholders to share in the losses as the crisi escalates. Daniel Gros, Director of the Center of European Policy Studies, says policymakers in Europe saw the experience of Lehman Brothers and do not want to see a repeat of that experience at any cost. The weak banks in Germany and other lender countries are too politically connected in his view to be allowed to fail. German banks hold $62 billion in Irish Greek and Portuguese debt and French banks hold $26 billion. Hypo Real Estate, taken over by the German government, holds $14.5 billion of this debt. Bank assets in Europe are a larger share of the national economies in Europe than in the U.S. making the situation more intractable- In Britain over 3.5 times the economy, Ireland 2.5 times, in Netherlands 4.4 times, in France 3.25 times, in Spain 2 times and in Germany 1.5 times GDP, compared to 60% of GDP in the U.S. After the Irish government decided to guarantee the debt of its banks two years ago, Irish taxpayers are stuck with the entire cost of bad debt at the Irish banks....

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Britain and Britain's parliament now faces some tough choices as the economic costs of Brexit are spelled out by government and Bank of England forecasts. Already GDP per person is below what it would have been without the Brexit vote by some 2%, according to the Centre for European Reform think tank. The main problem is the expected drop in trade with the European Union of as much as 40%. Ending free movement also curbs European immigration, and add to this a drop in foreign investment. The government says the cost of the deal with the EU made by prime minister Theresa May could cost 2.7% in loss for GDP per head. Estimates range from 1.7% to 3%. A loss of 3% comes to an average annual loss at 2016 prices of 1090 British pounds per head. Worse a no deal Brexit could see this jump to 8.1%, according to the government. The Bank of England agrees and says the pound would go down by a quarter. Offsets from Britain making free trade deals are pathetically small of only only 0.2% if at all, and o.1% from likely deregulation. Not a picture that makes Brexit anything but a chaotic option for Britain. ...

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The National Assessment of Education Progress, NAEP, which is a report card of educational levels in the U.S. secondary school system shows 36% of fourth graders in the U.S. are proficient in reading for 2017. For eighth graders this drops to 34% in 2017. This shows that a little over a third of fourth and eight graders are achieving proficiency in reading, a glaring sign of failure leaving about two thirds of young people behind. With declining level of reading proficiency and proliferation of social media, the bottom 25% are faring much worse than even this dismal result.

Between 2015 and 2017 there was no improvement in NAEP scores.

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The effort to shift China's economc growth away from the rampant overbuilding in housing and industrial capacity of the past to domestic consumption, and focus on meeting the demand for better medical care, quality of food, education and other quality of life products. China's leaders met at the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing in Dec. 2015 to work out ways to make this shift so that growth rate of 6.5% and other goals can be met. Plans include reducing industrial overcapacity, dealing with overinvestment and unused inventory in housing, reducing financial risks from high corporate debt to GDP ratio approaching 160% estimated by Standard and Poors Ratings Services. By comparison the U.S. debt to GDP ratio is 70%. A steep rise resulted from the huge China stimulus program of 2008-2009, when the ratio was 98% for China. Experts such as Derek Scissors of the American Enterprise Institute are pessimistic about the prospects of successfully implementing reforms, saying reducing industrial overcapacity was a goal of the new Jinping Li-Keqiang leadership in 2013, but not much progress has been made in 2 years....

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When so much of infrastructure healthcare and education still needs more funding, and when St Paul's Cathderal lacks essential funds for basic maintenance and is in danger of closing, the Greensill scandal shows how much reallocation of funds to infrastructure, health, and education to help workers, students and families is needed. How much the existing culture distorts allocation of capital in ways that are vital to the future of families, students and workers, and lobbying acts in ways that are against the national interest. Here the WSJ says the lobbying of David Cameron, former UK prime minister extended to getting access to funds for Greensill, a  company that operated in  supply chain finance, lobbying for funds from the emergency financing facility provided by the Bank of England. Treasury rejected 56 messages sent by Cameron to top British politicians over several months to have rules changed. Greensill went into bankruptcy in March 2021, stranding investors who had put in $10 billion. A parliamentary committee is now looking into this case of Greensill. The company was founded by an Australian Lex Greensill, and does little more than provide companies a cash advance to stretch out the time to pay bills. One question no parliamentary committee will ask is why when the needs for infrastructure, health and education are so great $10 billion in funds, public or private even go into something like supply finance that does so little for the country. This is an example of the kind of distortion in the uses of capital that has become commonplace today, creating societies and countries with poorly  funded infrastructure and essential services in the advanced countries of Europe and the US. ...

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In an interview with the WSJ's Aaron Lucchetti, the CEO of a future business combination of Deutsche Bourse and NYSE Euronext, Duncan Niederauer, talks about the difficulties in naming the merged companies, the efforts to achieve a balance for the board, emotional issues about the ownership of the new company. He repeatedly emphasized that this is a merger not a takeover by Deutsche Bourse. This even though the higher market value of Deutsche Bourse at $15 billion compared to about $10 billion for NYSE Euronext, gives Deutsche Bourse 60% of the new company and 10 of 17 board members. He says he realizes the naming and related issues are emotional ones and there is a lot of pride involved in this. Placing Deutsche Bourse as in DB NYSE Euronext has been ruled out. The shareholder base will still be majority U.S., he reminds readers. And the board will have five or six Germans, five or six Americans, and five or six people from other countries. Is he brushing up on his German? No, he says but he tried to introduce his deputy CEO Dominique Cerutti in French, and its a good thing for Americans to learn other languages. Deutsche Borse's Francioni speaks three or four languages, which makes it a little humbling for him....

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Research shows that when a home's value falls below 75% of the amount owed on the mortgage, the homeowner thinks hard about walking away even if he has the money to keep paying, as it does not make economic sense to keep paying. By 3rd quarter 2009 4.5 million Americans reached this point and by June 2010 it is estimated by Corel Logic, a real estate firm, that 5.1 million will reach the 75% point- or 10% of all mortgages. Homeowners who made the mistake of buying as the market was cresting are seriously considering walking away and bank's reluctance to reduce the payments is for them the last straw. The Obama administration hasn't helped as this comment by assistant Treasury secretary for financial institutions, Michael Barr, shows. He discounts the idea that many people will walk away from their homes, saying that the overwhelming number will stay in their homes. Consultants at Oliver Wyman show from their research that at least 17% walked away from their homes even though they could make payments in 2008, or 588,000 people, and this was before the full impact of the global financial crisis. These numbers could be much higher in today's depressed market....

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Portugal's foreign minister, Paulo Portas, resigns in protest against continuity of austerity measures signalled by the selection of Ms. Albuquerque as the new finance minister. Portas's party is part of the coalition of centre right parties in the administration of prime minister, Pedro Passos Coelho. Cuts in public employee pay and spending on health and education, income and sales tax increases, have cut the deficit to 6.4% of GDP by 2013 from about 10% in 2010. The cost of this is an economy that is shrinking more than expected- by 4.8% in 2011 and 2012, and an additional 2.3% in 2013. Unemployment exceeds 17% in 2013. The loan terms negotiated for the 78 billion euro bailout with the IMF and E.U. in 2010, were renegotiated so that the 3% of GDP target for the deficit for 2013 was relaxed to 5.5%. Portas's party and other leaders are calling for a further renegotiation to take into account the economic conditions in Portugal and boost growth. Portas's party opposed the effort to cut labor costs of companies with a large increase in worker social security contributions, a measure seen as counterproductive even by business leaders that was later dropped. In financial markets the 10 year Portugal bond yield increased 0.22% to 6.615%....

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New legislation that cleared Congress on helping homeowners about 400,000 homeowners avoid foreclosure. Congresspromises to get tough on lenders and loan servicers if they do work to honor what Congress has mandated. The Federal Housing Administration will run the program and it will insure upto $300 billion in refinanced 30 year fixed rate loans The mortgages cannot be for more than 90% of a home's newly appraised value. For mortgages that exceed that value the lender would have to voluntarily write down the principal to the qualifying level. If the home goes up in value the borrower must share newly created equity with the FHA. THe program begins October 1 and ends Sept 30, 2011. Borrowers will not qualify if they have intentionally defaulted on the loan or if they had a debt to income ratio of less than 31% as of March 1. This is the first serious effort by Congress and the Administration to work in bipartisan fashion to put a serious dent in the housing foreclosure levels which are at the root of the present financial crisis and Secreatary Paulson, Bernanke, and Barney Frank and others in Congress have helped support this effort which should eventually help the financail markets recover from failing mortgages that caused this crisis....

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The 2010 census reveals significant changes in the population mix in the U.S. The number of Hispanic people increased significantly, especially so in the under 18 age group. The Hispanic population went up by 43%, increasing to 50.5 million in 2010, compared to 35.3 million in 2000. Overall Hispanics make up 16% of the U.S. population of 308.7 million. One of the striking facts in the change is that children under age of 18 make up one third of the Hispanic population compared to one fifth for the white population. Texas by itself added 979,000 people under age 18, with 931,000 being Hispanic. 92% of the population growth since 2000-of 25.1 million- came from minorities of all kinds. And mixed race is another major category with nine million people. Asian American population also increased, especially in major cities such as San Francisco, San Jose and New York. Overall 63.7% of people identified as white, 16.3% as Hispanic, 12.2% as black, 4.7% as Asian, 0.7% as American Indian or Alaska natives. New York and Washington saw black populations decline. Detroit dropped out of the top ten cities replaced by San Jose. Chicago's population declined, New York's went up by 2% to 8.2 million people. ...

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Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

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How the reconstruction effort in Iraq never had the clear policy goals and objectives, the technical capacity, and the organization structure, to deliver the basic services like electricity, clean water, phone connections and other infrastructure services which crumbled by 70% or broke down totally after the war. And still does not have these elements, as well as one agency or authority responsible and accountable for delivery and results. This are some of the findings of a detailed audit and investigation in a 513 page history of the American reconstruction effort in Iraq, prepared by the Office of Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction , led by Stuart Bowen, Jr. The reconstruction effort has already cost by mid 2008 $117 billion with $50 billion in US taxpayer money, but the results show that all they have achieved is at best a restoration of services to what they were before the war, when Iraq was under severe sanctions and had an outdated infrastructure. One of the biggest problems was that the war effort was not prepared for such a total breakdown of the infrastructure, and never grasped the critical role the continued delivery of basic services would have in winning or losing the support of the people of Iraq, who would blame whoever was in power if things were worse than under the previous regime which is exactly what happened. The whole reconstruction effort was botched because the will was not there, the direction was not there, and no clear policy on how to go about doing this, and lacking the organization structure for its execution. Bowen concludes that the US government was not adequately prepared to take on the reconstruction mission it took on in mid 2003. When Jay Garner presented plans on rebuilding to Donald Rumsfeld, the secretary of Defense, before the invasion, the conversation shows Rumsfeld asking Garner how much they would cost. Upon being told that it would cost billions of dollars Rumsfeld responded saying, my friend if you think we're going to spend a billion dollars of our money over there you are sadly mistaken. All this becomes important in the light of another reconstruction effort underway in Afghanistan which aslo has struggled with severe problems and poor results. And as the struggle with militants in Afghanistan is growing the reconstruction effort in Afghanistan and its ability to win the support of ordinary people will be critical to winning support of the Afghan people. ...

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Age ol trading patterns between UAE and Iran separated only by 70 miles of ocean and the US sanctions on exports of sensitive items to Iran.

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French president Hollande's approval ratings dropped to a new low of 12% in a survey by TNS Sofres. In 2013 Hollande's approval ratings dropped to 26% before increasing to 30% after the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks in Jan. 2015. The recent terrorist attacks, France's high unemployment rate, his appearance of being indecisive, and the new labor law, have increased Hollande's unpopularity. As a result his colleague in the Socialist Party, prime minister Manuel Valls, now plays an important role in the administration. Middle class workers 35-49 years are the group where Hollande does poorly. Former president Sarkozy's rating never dropped below 30%. Compared to Hollande, Merkel of Germany has an approval rating that is far better at 54% and Obama in the U.S. of 56%. Merkel has achieved this following the differences in Germany over letting in large numbers of immigrants, and Obama after 8 years in office and differences in the Democratic Party on trade and economic policy. Trudeau in Canada has an approval rating of 63%. ...

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Wirecard has filed for insolvency.The $2 billion missing in a bank account for Wirecard is more than all the profits it has made over 10 years. It got off the ground in 2016 after Credit Suisse and Softbank took interest in investing. This report in the WSJ shows the hazy history of the company and the details about the missing money in the bank account in the Philippines. Ernst and Young says it was deceived, and the money did not exist in the accounts, as reported in this video by the WSJ. The billions of dollars invested in companies like Wirecard, WeWork and other companies, could easily have funded the PPE equipment, facial masks, and other healthcare equipment held as a reserve for emergencies such as this pandemic, in any large region such as North America or the European Union.   For every Wirecard there are 10 others in every region of the world. Just in the last month several imploded including a coffee venture copied right off Starbucks each involving losses of billions of dollars. ...

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A study and analysis in the One Earth journal for climate change action shows oil companies owe about $209 billion annually to pay for damage caused from climate change. The leading companies accounting for about 10% of global emissions are Gazprom and Saudi Aramco. These companies have benefited greatly from the oil price surge. The US and European oil majors who also have profited greatly from the oil price surge come next. Further distorting the effects of wars, financial crises since 2010, the war in Ukraine creates price surges from which oil companies benefit while the vast majority of people in the world are affected by a cost of living crisis made worse by higher energy prices. This is what is important to keep in mind as the US under president Biden prepares to play a leadership role in correcting these unneeded and bad distortions on how it affects the lives of workers and families in the US and Europe, as well as in Asia, Latin America, Africa. ...

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Binyamin Applebaum of the NYT Editorial Board says the gap from 1972 to 2021 of 21% of GDP in spending and 17% of GDP in taxes taken in is a serious problem because it creates $31 trillion in debt and over 475 billion in interest payments each year. And much of the spending is wildly popular 63% that goes to Social Security and Medicare, and vital spending on health care and education, social services that takes up 15%. The rest is defense and interest payments. The rest of the G7 spend about 50% more on average he says. This is why he says Republicans holding up raising the debt ceiling is not the issue that needs to be faced each year there are better more direct and sensible solutions that also address the need for the Renewal of America after years of underinvestment in everything from infrastructure to health and education. And capital markets that overcrowded essential government spending to finance massive capital misallocation by tech companies, the costs of which are only now being understood in America. ...

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University fees in Britain are set at 9250 pounds a year and millions of people have tens of thousands of student debt. The student loan book in Britain is already at 120 billion pounds and it weighs in heavily on young people starting life after college affecting the quality of life. 

The Green party says it will cost 40 billion pounds for waiver of recoverable student debt over 5 years. The Labour Party in Britain is looking at following the Green Party's support of writing off the student debt. Labour has said it will abolish student fees. Labour party's McDowell says the system was designed so that much of the student debt would remain unpaid and it is time to clear this and take this burden off the shoulders of young people. 

This would also give the economy a boost as young people are better able to afford basics such as housing, food and services after this is lifted.

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A supply chain crisis with shortages of goods is affecting all economies in the world. The price of oil has increased to $80 and supply chain shortages are affecting most industries. Power shortages in China lead to cutbacks in consumption for industry and some large cities not having essential  electricity for traffic lights. Coronavirus pandemic has disrupted supply chain factories in Vietnam and Malaysia because of lockdowns. Once a product is manufactured it still has to be shipped from far flung places in today's cumbersome and costly supply chain. Cost of shipping is up 3 times according to one shipping index in one year. Prices to ship from China to Rotterdam in Netherlands is up 6 times in one year. Global supply chains at such high cost of shipping means that companies will look to invest in manufacturing at home so that they do not pay high shipping costs and also create jobs at home, and are able to build critical experience in manufacturing technology. ...

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This report in The Times shows how Africa is tackling malaria by using modern methods such as drones. Drones are used in Ghana to send medicine to remote parts of the country. The rollout of the world's first malaria vaccine is taking place in Malawi, Ghana and Kenya. The Glaxo developed vaccine requires 4 doses over 18 months. Gavi is a partnership that brings UNICEF and WHO in partnership with private companies to  buy vaccines in bulk and distribute them where it is not affordable. Gavi supported 66 million vaccines in 2018 for children, yet about 20 million children in Nigeria, Congo and other parts of Africa lacked routine immunizations in 2018. UPS and health service workers are joining in the effort for administering this vaccine correctly.  Software that tracks the taking of the vaccines by children is essential for success and this is being implemented with Ghanian authorites. This report shows how it is done in Dateng, Ghana, a town of 800 people 3 hour drive from Accra.  ...

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Apple relies on Chinese suppliers for about 90% of its products. So reliant is Apple on China that it is slow to make changes to adapt to president Biden's policies for a new US Asian Economic Framework that builds new supply chains. By contrast Samsung has largely stayed out of China using supply chain manufacturing in Vietnam and other countries. India and Vietnam are major alternatives and only India can offer the well trained workforce and supplies of land, labour, incentives and facilities that China offers. This makes Apple a laggard in the changes that are happening today to supply chains bringing manufacturing closer to home and making products in countries allied to the US in Asia. This includes South Korea, Japan, India and Vietnam as production hubs for parts and assembly of advanced technology products. Apple is only now beginning the task of building supply chains outside China and returning manufacturing to the US which will bring back US technological leadership by 2030, American policy set by president Biden. ...