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Jon Gertner makes several critical points about the importance of supporting and investing in manufacturing. The U.S. private sector in new industries such as alternative energy, and electric cars is competing not just with the private sector in Germany, S. Korea or Japan. It is competing with the governments of these countries which are investing heavily to build innovation and jobs in their home countries. Innovation, design and manufacturing are woven together in these new industries in a manner that is different from the iPhone/ iPad/ Search algorithms /Facebook software type industries dominated by names such as Apple, Google and Facebook. The software industries are the opposite of jobs intensive industries with Facebook having 2000 employees and Google having 29,000 employees. By comparison the lithium battery industry could generate over 62,000 jobs in the next 10 years, and the electric car industry as a whole with its supplier networks could generate much larger numbers of jobs. Because of the advanced technology involved these are good well paying jobs. The finance industry in the U.S. is attracted to the quick returns in the software related fields, leaving a gap for the American government to fill a role nurturing these industries. This would be similiar to the manner that the German and Japanese governments do working with their own private sector. The private sector in the U.S. needs only the early nurturing and can operate on its own by innovating its way to competitiveness in manufacturing and cost after the early years. Because of missteps in failing to support manufacturing in the U.S., the U.S. may have to import some of the technology from countries such as Japan and S.Korea to make up for these missteps. This is happening in the lithium ion battery manufacturing technology and facilities, which experts say is being successfully imported from these countries to the U.S.. The Obama administration has provided $2.5 billion dollars from the stimulus investments to support projects of 30 companies operating in the advanced battery technology field. This includes companies such as A123 Systems and LG Chem Power in Michigan. As a result of these efforts the Department of Energy estimates that by 2015 the U.S. will have the capacity to manufacture 40% of the world production of lithium batteries for the autombile industry. In 2009 the U.S. had capacity to manufacture 2% of the batteries....

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The lower oil prices in 2015 helps lower the current account deficit, which reached 7.9% in 2013, to 5% projected for 2015. Inflation is projected at 6.8%. GDP growth of 3.5% is expected for 2015. Turkey imports oil amounting to about 6% of GDP making for a large impact. Weakness is in the area of manufacturing, as Turkey's high tech exports are only 2% of manufactured exports, according to the Economist. About 1% of Turkish students have advanced computer skills. With problems in Brazil and Russia, money flowing into emerging markets is giving Turkey a second look after the emerging markets crisis in early 2014, when the lira slumped and interest rates had to be increased. The economy is recovering in 2015 from that situation. Two major beneficiaries of lower oil prices in emerging markets are India and Turkey in 2015, as both economies struggled with a large oil import bill.

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Large food and beverage companies are seeing established brands sales decline as newer organic and health conscious brands increase market share. The 25 largest food company sales declined to 45.1% of food industry sales of $418 billion in 2014, declining by 4.3% since 2009. Smaller brands increased share from 32.1% to 35.3%. The more health conscious brands have seen tremendous growth, Granola bar company KindLLC increased share from 0.5% share of the snack bar market to about 6% in 2015, according to Bernstein Research. Chobani Inc. reached $1 billion in sales in 5 years. Kroger and other big supermarket chains are responding to consumer demand for buying local, buying from boutique producers, and buying from health conscious producers, by supporting these brands with marketing strategy, flavor selection, package size, and other ways, so that Kroger can carry their products on its shelves. FlapJacked pancake mix from a small Colorado company was introduced at Kroger's King Soopers chain in that state, and then taken to 500 Kroger stores in the U.S. For chains such as Kroger and Winn-Dixie in the southern U.S., it is critical to stay ahead of changing consumer preferences, especially now that eating right and eating healthy, and looking for alternatives, is changing the marketplace. ...

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The dangers to China's economy and banking system from the large number of bad loans at the local level. Difficulties of absorbing bad loan losses by the central government as new loan losses are piled on top of previous loan losses from earlier efforts to tide over bad loans. Considering all nonperforming loans that may end up as sovereign debt China's national debt is upwards of 80% of GDP, say Walter and Howie. The lack of any serious change in policies, inability to control lending for state enterprises and local governments, the tax on savings with low interest rates which keeps down domestic consumption, and the absence of a serious discussion on these issues leaves China exposed to higher systemic risk from excessive financial leverage.

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NYT reporting on the wealth of China's elite is followed by restrictions on journalists. Visa restrictions were eased for students, tourists and business travellers, but tightenend for journalists under the Jinping administration in 2014. This NYT editorial says NYT will not succumb to pressures from the U.S. or any government, including China, to change the high standards of reporting, and will continue to meet the fair reporting needs of its readers worldwide.

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China's affluent people could become nervous about the value of the currency and try to convert into dollars. Aaron Back of the WSJ poses the question what if the affluent 1-2% of China's urban population of 737 million convert the maximum of $50,000 permitted from yuan into dollars. He says the simple math shows this would result in outflows of around $370 billion to $740 billion. This does not include other ways in which money could exit the country. China's foreign exchange reserves are $3.3 trillon, but this includes illiquid investments such as loans to Venezuela for oil assets, and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. With a large and aging population China has to have reserves to meet social security and other plans for the future. This means the reserves could quickly dwindle with unanticipated capital outflows. This is what keeps central bank PBOC planners focussed on limiting depreciation of the yuan currency.

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Improving performance of Toyota, Nissan and Honda in the U.S., Japan and emerging markets. Japanese automakers report higher profits in the fiscal fourth quarter. Sales for 2012 are expected to quadruple for Toyota in the 2012 fiscal year compared to fiscal 2011, according to analyst estimates. Part of the recovery is from weakening of the yen from 75 to the U.S. dollar in October 2011 to 81 in the March-April 2012 period. Profit margins are expected to improve for Toyota from 1.5% to 5.1% for Toyota, 5.4% to 7% for Nissan and 2.5% to 6.8% for Honda.

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A big hurdle for local brands in China is the Chinese consumer's interest and respect for foreign brands. Asked about local brands buyers say they can't think of any, or say Chinese brands are shoddy in quality and value. Brands such as Haier in consumer appliances and Lenovo in tech are an exception. During the big surge in consumer sales in the last two decades Chinese companies producing local brands thought it adequate to simply imitate foreign brand names rather than take the difficult route of establishing the credibility of their own brand- an effort which might take years. Often the foreign name was changed slightly to keep the resemblance but mean something positive to Chinese consumers in the local language. Common are names such as Adidos, Hike, Cnoverse and Fuma for sneakers. Clio Coste keeps the connection to Lacoste with its crocodile logo. Coca Cola in Chinese is Kekoulele, translated to mean Tasty Fun. Only now are local companies giving serious attention to creating long term brand entity and image. The serious attention to brand names and branding comes at a time when China increasingly depends on consumer sales to power the economy with the decline in real estate and slower manufacturing. For the 11 months of 2014 retail sales were up 12 percent over the prior year period to $3.8 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. ...

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The Baltic Dry Freight Index (BDI Index) dropped to 577 in Jan. 2015, its lowest level since 1987. The BDI Index went up to 11,793 in 2008. Capacity is about 20% higher than demand for dry bulk shipping vessels of commodities such as iron ore and coal. Analysts say tonnage of dry bulk vessels went up by 85% after 2008, just as the demand fell sharply.

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Difficulties facing China from an overheating economy, a property bubble in many cities,, and a 22.5% jump in March in the broadest measure of money supply being the latest signs of trouble. The government announcement will show the economy growth at 12% rate in the 1st quarter of 2010 vs. 8.7% in 2009. The problem is that China may have acted too aggressively when the central bank increased money supply and state-owned banks in China's centralized banking system were ordered to jack up the lending. The $586 billion stimulus sent even more money to construction and energy companies. Without effective steps and fast the Chinese economy could run into serious problems.

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After years of rapid growth and rapid rate of credit creation China's economy is stalling. Each $1 of new credit generates only 17 cents in GDP growth, according to Bloomberg. This compares with 83 cents of GDP growth for each credit dollar in 2007. Local governments cannot find projects that are worthy of investment. Financial repression with low interest rates for savers is further depressing consumer spending when it is needed to rebalance the economy away from exports.

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Blumenthal points out in Foreign Policy magazine that the young people in Taiwan were born after 1990 when Taiwan was experiencing democracy. The young people want economic relations with China, but not much more, says Blumenthal.