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Washington Post Original article ›
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This editorial in the Wshington Post is sharply critical of the Obama administration's policies of inaction in Syria and Iraq. It says president Obama and his administration will have to answer for the policies to the American people and the people of the Middle East and Europe.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The Merkel government's effort to convince a skeptical German public about the need to aid Spain's banks. This includes a video on YouTube. The German parliament will vote shortly on the loans to Spain's savings banks.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Eurozone finance ministers meeting in Brussels give Spain one more year to meet deficit targets because of a slumping economy and lower tax receipts after raising taxes. Spain now has till 2014 instead of 2013 to meet the EU's 3% deficit target. Spain can now run a deficit of 6.3% in 2012, down from 8.9% in 2011, without risking EU penalties. The 2013 deficit target is 4.5% of GDP and the 2014 target is 2.8%. Spain can also have $30 billion by the end of July in the event that a Spanish bank needs to be recapitalized quickly.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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This Wall Street Journal editorial calls for more transparency in disclosing bad debt problems at Spanish and other European banks. It faults recent and upcoming stress tests of EU banks for not being stringent enough and taking into account adverse scenarios. While Spain's central bank says only 20 billion euros are needed to recapitalize the cajas savings banks, other estimates are much higher. Moody's country report says Spain could need upto 120 billion euros to recapitalize its banks. A big problem is European banks exposure in Spain which is over 700 billion euros as of September 2010- Spanish banks have high exposure in Portugal and German banks have high exposure to Spain.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Sheila Bair, former head of the U.S. FDIC, points out flaws in the rules for capital adequacy ratios and risk weighted assets which allow banks to increase their capital adequacy ratios. The ratios show the financial strength of the banks and their ability to absorb losses, which makes their accurate calculation very important for the safety of the U.S. banking system, especially with large "too big to fail" banks. Bair says the 2013 U.S. Fed stress tests showed Bank of America as having a capital adequacy ratio of 11.4%, when it should actually be 7.8% without the risk weighted adjustment. The mortgage banking crisis showed how the risk wieighting can be flawed and give a distorted representation of the acutal risks facing the banks in its assets. For Morgan Stanley the 2013 stress tess by the U.S. Fed showed the capital adequacy ratio at 14%, taking out the risk weighting adjustment this drops to 7%. Bair says its not the idea of risk weighting that is the problem, but the way it is applied- for example considering sovereign government bonds in the eurozone as zero risk, or that only 20% of the accounting value of debt one banks buys from another bank is to be taken into account in setting the ratio. Go back to the drawing board she says, it makes no sense that Citibank debt be shown as having one fifth risk of IBM's. ...
New York Times Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Spain's banks have government debt holdings as a percentage of bank assets of 6.8% compared to 13.1% for Italy's banks. This is based on data available from the IMF. But Italian banks are far better capitalized than Spanish banks. Bank shares of Italy and Spain hit post Lehman lows in July 2011, but Italian bank shares are likely to recover faster than Spanish bank shares. Italian banks raised 8 billion euros of capital in 2011 and most banks have an average core Tier 1 ratio of over 8%. By contrast Spain's bank sector is perceived by markets as undercapitalized and the IPO's of savings banks Bankia and Banca Civica will be affected by the unsettled markets.
New York Times Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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FactSet Research Systems shows that of 13,339 ratings of U.S. listed companies 96% were buy, hold or overweight. Only 4% were sell or underweight. Mike Mayo describes the difficulties he faced giving true ratings of banks that reflected loan and other problems- in over 2 decades as a bank analyst- in his book "Exile on Wall Street." A significant culture change is required, says Mayo, for the hundreds of analysts who do the ratings to perform their function of providing proper scrutiny of companies. The clout of banks in the American capitalism of today also works to the severe detriment of the economc system to perform the way it should. He says the U.S. should look to the Financial Services Authority in Britain for the kind of actions that are needed for the financial sector supervisory officials. He points out that the FSA fired many of its existing staff and looked for new talent, at the same time increasing the salaries and benefits so that regulatory supervisors were not looking for opportunities in the private sector....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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China's National Bureau of Statistics made an announcement in Beiijing that 51.27% of the Chinese people now live in urban areas. In 1949 the figure was 10.6%, in 1979 it was 19%. In the space of three decades China has urbanized rapidly. This has brought with it economic growth, infrastructure development and increased employment in the manufacturing sector as new workers moved from rural areas to the cities. With it also come major problems for the country and the leaders of the Communist party led government. Of the 691 million urban residents, 253 million are migrant workers- 37% of urban residents and 19% of the population are in this grey zone described as the "hukou" or household registration system. Under "hukou" these migrants from rural areas cannot access public services in the cities, and have rights to access them in their own villages where they are registered. Integrating these migrant workers who are different than their more affluent and better educated neigbors in the cities so that they become truly a part of the urban areas will remain a huge challenge for China. One of the ways China is addressing this is with the plan to build 36 million units of affordable housing for these migrant workers by 2016. Ever so gradually Chinese officials are relaxing the restrictions on migrant workers- such as Shanghai Mayor Han Zheng's announcement for allowing all migrant workers to rent subsidized housing in the outer parts of Shanghai and committing to "increase the migrant population's involvement in the community affairs, cultural life and show genuine care for them." Food security is another issue as more development on prime agricultural land means less land available for agriculture. Appropriation of agricultural land for industrial use is bringing the country down to the limit of 120 million hectares of agricultural land needed for self sufficiency in food, according to the Land Ministry. At the same time China's leaders want to avoid what the World Bank calls "the middle income trap," where a country reaches a level of modernization and urbanization, and then stalls at that level- the level being around $3000 per capital GDP, which is China's GDP per capita today, according to the National Bureau of Statistics in China. Li Keqiang, who takes over from premier Wen Biao, sees the building of affordable housing for migrant workers as a critical way to continue the urbanization process, and shift the country from its export focus by increasing consumption and the development of industries that support this. A slowing economy dominated by state owned companies focussed on a decelerating export model and an aging but still growing population- NBS says China's overall population was up by 4.8% in 2011 over 2010 and has reached 1.35 billion- presents a tougher set of challenges to the new leadership in China than was faced by the current leadership....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Viviane Reding, vice president of the European Commission, provides a five point proposal to strengthen the European Union and take the steps to a closer political union. She says the Maastricht Treaty does not provide the strong foundation the European Union needs and the steps are already underway to change this. The fiscal compact for financial discipline in the eurozone that all members of the eurozone agreed to is one such step. Other steps remain for a closer union and she suggests the time is now for an open debate inside the EU countries about what people want to see the EU become by 2020. As a timetable a treaty on political union could be ratified between 2016 and 2019, with it going into effect once two thirds of the countries have approved it with referendums. Countries would have the opton of political union or staying in a close form of association but not union.
BusinessWeek Original article ›
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In Spain it is not the big banks like Banco Santander or BBVA that funneled a lot of the mortgage lending. Its the Cajas or non profit lending instituions that do more than half of all the loans. The Cajas had $330 billion in loans to developers in Sept. 2009, up from $50 billion in 2000. As home prices plunge the 45 Cajas are suffering losses, amounting to estimated $3.4 billion in 2010.

Can China Cool Its Economy?

BusinessWeek Original article ›
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Difficulties facing China from an overheating economy, a property bubble in many cities,, and a 22.5% jump in March in the broadest measure of money supply being the latest signs of trouble. The government announcement will show the economy growth at 12% rate in the 1st quarter of 2010 vs. 8.7% in 2009. The problem is that China may have acted too aggressively when the central bank increased money supply and state-owned banks in China's centralized banking system were ordered to jack up the lending. The $586 billion stimulus sent even more money to construction and energy companies. Without effective steps and fast the Chinese economy could run into serious problems.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Spain's borrowing costs increase reaching a high of 7.180% on yields for 10 year Spanish government bonds. There is considerable uncertainty about the bad loans in Spain's banking system and fears that the bad loans could be much larger than previously expected. Consultants hired by the Spanish government of prime minister Mariano Rajoy are expected to report on their findings this week about the extent of bad loans.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The WSJ's Christopher Emsden and Alessandra Galloni's interview with Italy's Labor Minister, Elsa Fornero, after major changes to Italy's labor laws including Article 18. This is a major change for Italy. She describes the problems she faced and how she has tackled them to get the new labor law passed. Fornero will set up a monitoring system to ensure that the law's imprementation takes place smoothly. To make the change Fornero took apart Article 18 to its constituent elements, preserving the anti discrimination aspect and the right to appeal, but allowing employees to be terminated for economic reasons. This puts Italy on an even footing with its europartners Germany and France, and addresses one of the main reasons Italian businesses are loath to hiring new employees. It also addresses the main reason why foreign investment in the Italian economy is so scarce. In achieving this Fornero faced the lack of support from Confindustria, the business association (which does not cease to amaze her), CGIL, the labor unions, and the political class in Italy, with each side wanting to tweak the system to make gains or get special exemptions. Fornero is a pensions expert and economics professor at the University of Turin. Her ministry covers pensions, labor, welfare and equal opportunity policies....
New York Times Original article ›
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Spain's banking officals at the central bank and at the IMF, Jaime Caruana, Rodrigo Rato, and Jose Vinals, failed to exercize proper oversight over the Spanish banking system and did not draw early attention to the problems that were building up. Each time this came up they insisted that everything was under control and Spain's banks were adequately capitalized. In July 2008 when the issue was raised to Mr Caruana at an IMF news confernece he said: " The financial system in Spain is able to cope with that and is properly capitalized."
New York Times Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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China's shadow banking system of trust companies and insurance companies with trust company units and other informal lenders are the fastest growing part of its banking system. Between 2010 and 2012 trust companies and other shadow banks doubled outstanding loans to 36 trillon yuan ($5.8 trillion) or about 69% of China's GDP, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Hidden debt that is likely to default in this poorly regulated sector is seen as a large risk in the banking system by the central bank and China's government planners. Tightening of credit by the central bank, the People's Bank of China, sent interbank lending rates from 3% to as high as 25% in late June 2013, finally settling on June 24 at 6.64%. China's state owned banks lend to trust companies in this market. Trust companies get additional financing by selling wealth management products promising investors returns of 8-10%. Even with China's high savings rate and large government reserves, the hidden debt and large unknowns about the loans in default, are seen by the central bank as posing risks to the target rate of economic growth of 7.5% if the government has to bailout a significant number of troubled banks. Much of the money funnelled through the trust companies since 2008 has been poorly invested. The trust companies such as Citic and Ping An Trust channel lending to borrowers for projects ranging from steel mills to infrastructure projects, such as highways and property developments that cannot obtain the financing through the large state owned banks. Fitch Ratings estimate is that since the financial crisis of 2009 these loans generated only one third of the economic growth per yuan as they did before 2009. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The Bank of Japan's plans to buy 100 trillion yen of Japanese government debt in 2 years to fight deflation is having a positive effect on the eurozone economies. Japanese investors are buying eurozone sovereign debt. J.P. Morgan estimates the increase in investments for overseas bonds by Japanese investors in 2013 at 45 billion euros. This is lowering the yields on the sovereign bonds of France, Netherlands and Austria to record lows and lowering the yields of sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. The 10 year yields on Italy's government bonds declined to 4.326%. Yields on 10 year Japanese government bonds was 0.514% on April 8, 2013.
New York Times Original article ›
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An audit of Spain's banking system by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, shows that Spanish banks would need 53.745 billion euros to be cleaned up if mergers and acquisitions underway are completed.The amount goes up to 59.3 billion euros if this does not happen. Bankia bank will need 24.7 billion euros to meet capital requirements. Three other nationalized banks need 21.5 billion euros, including 3.2 billion euros for Banco Popular. Of the 14 audited banks only 7 need capital infusions. The other banks considered healthy include BBVA, Santander and La Caixa. These findings are similiar to a preliminary finding by Oliver Wyman and estimates provided by Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy minister, that Spanish banks will need 51 billion to 62 billion euros of capital infusion. Spain's secretary of state for the economy, Fernando Jimenez Latorre, says Spain will soon request about 40 billion euros of the 100 billion euro bailout offer for banks negotiated by Spain in June with the EU. It is not clear whether the capital infusion will go directly to Spain's banks as Spain has argued, or go through the Spanish government. The audits were important to provide credibility through independent assessment of losses in Spain's banking system, and remove the fog of uncertainty that is pushing up Spain's borrowing rate in capital markets....
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Prime minister Mario Monti responded with humor to the remark of former prime minister Berlusconi before the June 2012 summit of European leaders that he could unplug the Monti government, by saying that his government was not a home appliance. In August Monti's long intervew with the Wall Street Journal is published in which he says the Italian bond spreads with German bonds would be 1200 or something if Berlusconi was still running the government. Angelinia Alfano, of Berlusconi's party, the People of Freedom party, calls this "nonsensical" and the parliamentary whip calls this a "stupid provocation." WSJ's Alessandra Galloni intervewed the Italian premier. Monti's office says he called Berlusconi saying he regretted the "banal and abstract extrapolation of a trend in spread values, which was included in a wide ranging interview with the WSJ, was taken as a political consideration, which was not at all the intention."
Wall Street Journal Original article ›

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