LyrArc Article Gist
China's domestic debt has surged to levels that precede a crisis, to 216% of GDP and heading for 271% by 2017 according to Fitch Ratings. As a result president Jinping has taken over control of economic policy and controlling debt, especially local government debt, is now a top priority for 2014. Jinping will head the "leading group" for overall top down reforms, reflecting the new urgency. Local government debt went up 67% from 10.7 trillion yuan to 17.9 trillion yuan ($2.95 trillion) in just 3 years from 2010 to 2013, according to the National Audit Office. About half of this debt is due by the end of 2014, according to Standard Chartered Bank economist Stephen Green. Another risk is that shadow banking with interest rates of 10% are now about 11% of new lending. The option adopted by the government to use central government funds and regulation to restrict lending could make local governments turn increasingly to the shadow bank lenders (trust companies, and informal lenders) making things worse. The other option of tackling it aggressively by letting some companies default has the risk of other lenders raising rates on loans and bonds. This makes solutions tricky and prone to problems of increasing severity. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Changes in Eastern Europe, first with the departure of Sebastian Kurz after a second scandal. The Greens party in the coalition insisted that he resign. In the Czech Republic the government of prime minister Andrej Babis was voted out of office. A liberal-conservative three party coalition won 28% of the vote, and the Pirates and Mayors party won 16% of the vote. The two alliances won 108 seats in the 200 member lower house. Babis headed a minority government of ANO party, Social Democrats and supported by Communist party,(ANO is yes in Czech language), with many scandals, and opposed EU's climate change policies, says DW.com. 

With the changes in Austria this offers new opportunities for a closer European Union as Eastern Europe changes.

LyrArc Article Gist
A 16 year old girl, world junior climbing champion, who is one of the best climbers in France, with huge talent, slips unexpectedly on a path in the French Alps, falling 330 feet below. She was walking with family and friends on a path with a handrail in the Chartreuse mountains near her home in southeast France. It was such a banal incident. The French 2024 Paris Olympic Committee says with a lot of sadness that she had so many summits to climb. 

Climbers who went out with her say she had so much energy and joy and sent out so many positive waves. She did not consider the age and level of rivals but just went out with motivation and determination.

LyrArc Article Gist
Interracial marraiges are increasing since the Supreme Court made antimiscegenation laws unconstituional in 1967. According to a new report by the Pew Research Center- based on historical data and Census Bureau information of the annual American Community Survey- 15% of all new marraiges in 2010 were between people of different race, ethnicity or color. This is double what it was in 1980. Of the total people married in 2010, 9% of whites, 17% of blacks, 26% of Hispanics and 28% of Asians were married outside of the ethnic and racial group. Interracial marraiges were more common in western states and in the northeastern U.S. compared to the southern and midwestern states. In the western states 22% of all marraiges were between people of different ethnic or racial groups or color. College educated people under 30 were the most open to interracial marraige.

LyrArc Article Gist
The severe drought in China is affecting the provinces of Shandong, Jiangsu, Henan, Hebei and Shanxi, which produce about two thirds of China's wheat. China's Xinhua news agency is reporting that the drought in Shandong province could be "the worst drought in 200 years." China's retail wheat flour prices were up 8% over the two months to January and up 16% from the same month in 2010. The drought puts at risk the winter wheat crop harvested in June, according to the FAO. The FAO provided figures showing that 5.16 million hectares of a total of 14 million hectares of wheat producing areas are affected. China maintains large stores of wheat, estimated at 53 millon tons in Dec 2010, by Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. The reserves act as a buffer for shortages.

LyrArc Article Gist
The stock market rally appears to have legs with the increase in revenue growth for the fourth quarter. But what supports this other than the Fed's bond buying, which suppresses the true cost of capital, is a question posed by analysts. Add to that transfer payments such as unemployment and other benefits which help sustain consumer spending levels, but are temporary measures. Charles Dumas of Lombard Street Research says GDP growth for the fourth quarter of 2011 could be more than 5% year on year. The question is whether this is pulling growth forward from later years, so that larger dips could be expected ahead? Brokerage firm LCM Commodities says transfer payments from the government to consumers were 16-18% of personal consumption expenditures between 1995 and 2007. This has jumped to 22% by the end of 2010.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ford's plans for expansion at its manufacturing location in Chongqing, China, in 2012, will make this its largest manufacturing base outside of Michigan. An investment of $600 million for plant expansion will increase production capacity in Chongqing to 770,000 in 2014, from 350,000 today. The project has received government approval. Ford plans to introduce 15 new models in China by 2015, including a redesigned Ford Focus, which the Chongqing plant began producing in 2012. Ford plans to double the number of dealers by 2015 from 400 today. Ford sold 519,000 vehicles in China for 2011, a 7% growth from 2010. The market saw astounding growth of 46% and 32% in 2009 and 2010, but is rapidly decelerating with only 2% growth in 2012. Total sales in China were 18 million vehicles in 2011, making it the largest automobile market in the world.

LyrArc Article Gist
Adidas took a one time charge of 125 million euros for irregularities in its Reebok India Company, and expects an additional charge of 70 million euros. Adidas expects net profit to increase by 12-17% in 2012. Net profit for the first quarter of 2012 increased by 38% to 289 million euros, mainly on higher sales in China and Japan and its TaylorMade-Adidas Golf sales. Revenue increased by 14% to 3.8 billion euros on a constant currency basis. Profit results reflected lower financial expenses and a lower tax rate. The 2012 Olympics and Euro 2012 soccer will offer additional marketing opportunities for Adidas. Adidas is increasing its distribution in China and plans to have 2500 stores in 1400 cities by 2015. It will use its NEO brand at lower price points for entry customers in the smaller cities of China.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lego bricks are wildly popular in many countries including the U.S. Lego has seen "supernatural" growth in the last 8 years, according to Soren Torp Laursen, who heads the North American operations. Growth is now slowing, just as the Lego movie has achieved box office record for 3 weeks at No. 1. Data from NPD Group show U.S. consumer sales up 1% to $1.35 billion in 2013, giving Lego 7.8% share of U.S. toy market. Total sales were $4 billion in 2012. New products led to a surge in U.S. sales in 2012 by 26%. German sales were up 4% in 2013 compared to 13% in 2012, Germany making up 10% of its total sales. Now Lego is bringing out Lego sets based on the movie. About half of the 40 billion bricks are made in a small town of Billund in Denmark.

LyrArc Article Gist
A number of oil analysts believe that the the collapse of SemGroup LO, a private oil marketing firm contributed to the 14% drop in oil prices in the last 2 weeks. Semgroup which first took bets that oil prices would rise and then as oil prices declined on weakness in economic indicators took bets in the futures markets that oil prices would fall, could not come up with collateral to support its positions leading to a loss of $2.4 billion in crude oil futures and transfer of its account to Barclays Capital. The Tulsa, Oklahoma company has filed for Chapter 11 protection. Its publicly traded subsidiary SemGroup Energy Partners LP operates about 1200 miles of oil pipelines and controls 15 million barrels of oil storage capacity, including 7 mo;llion barrels at Cushing, Oklahoma, a storage hub closely tracked by oil markets.

LyrArc Article Gist
Election expert, Karl Rove, says following the win in the New York primary Trump has 845 delegates according to Associated Press, yet there are 950 delegates on the opposite side, putting the gap at 105 with the others. Trump has won 47% of the delegates upto this point, and needs to win 58% to get to the needed 1237 delegates for a majority. Rove, says Trump's threat to run as an Independent is an empty threat because of the filing date for running as an Independent for 12 states is well before the convention on July 18, 2016. By that date 12 states with 166 electoral votes will have already seen deadlines passed for registering as an Independent. The states include Illinois, Indiana, Florida, Texas. Michigan's date is during the convention. Registering as an Independent before the convention and some of the primaries would alienate his own voter base, says Rove. Another factor is that Trump would have to raise a significant number of signatures under the rules which is doable, but would create the impression of being in a spoiler role than a serious candidate....

LyrArc Article Gist
This editorial in the NYT points out that the new minimum wage proposed of $10.10 only provides 17 million working age people with about the same purchasing power that the minimum wage in 2013 dollars of $9.40 did in 1968. It also shows how far behind working age people many with small children have fallen behind. The $8 for the minimum wage in New York is now about one third of the $21 average wage in the U.S. in 2014. At $10 it would be about half. Another 11 million Americans slightly above the $10 per hour wage would also see their incomes increase. Even with the increase the incomes would only be $21,000 a year for this group of Americans up from about $15,000, many who are disproportionately women of average 35 years of age struggling to make ends meet. For 5 years the U.S. has seen no increase in the federal minimum wage. 600 American economists have sent a letter to leaders in Congress calling for the change without delay, saying that it would have a "stimulative effect on the economy" through higher consumer spending and spillover effects in jobs created by stimulating demand....

LyrArc Article Gist
Browning points out the record Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) average was not in 2007 but in 2000 when adjusted for inflation- on Jan 14, 2000. Since 1994 consumer prices measured by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have risen by 55%. Using 1994 dollars the March 5, 2013 closing DJIA average is at 9256, the 2007 high at 10194, and the record on Jan 14, 2000 at 10424, according to calculations made by Bespoke Investment Group. In inflation adjusted terms these calculations show the Dow barely making any progress in relation to the 2000 figure. When dividends and taxes are included, Browning says the inflation adjusted Dow is still not back up to the 2000 level. For retirees and sensible investors the real value of this money has to be taken account. Yale University professor, who founded the CAPE cyclically adjusted P/E, confirms what Browning says in an article in the WSJ March 10, 2013. There Shiller says that the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index has not made it to the 2000 level, so that investors have not made up for money lost in inflation in 13 years....

LyrArc Article Gist
Chinese companies are executing plans to put them at the forefront of new technologies and innovation in many fields. Example of BYD which plans to make a hybrid by the end of 2008. It is already the second largest battery producer and started up less than 10 years before. And BYD has built a 16 million square feet assembly plant in Shenzen to make the hybrid on a large scale. And Hasee a computer maker is focussing on innovative computers and laptops that now sell for just $370 , and hopes to become the top computer maker in the next 10 years . It is already selling 100,000 laptops a month in China and is now the second biggest computer maker in China. It is Chinese government policy to support innovative technology companies to take leadership positions in worldwide industries and products. Speaking at the Chinese Academy of Sciences in June President Hu said : "we are ready for a fight to control the scientific high ground and earn a seat on the world's high technology board. We will make some serious efforts to strengthen our nation's competence."...

LyrArc Article Gist
  A new German party called BSW,  Bundnis (Association) Sarah Wagenknecht, means Germany nationally could see a smaller Social Democrats party in parliament making way for the socialists who want to keep out migrants. Across East Germany a new party is challenging the AfD from the socialist side getting the protest vote against pro-migrant policies.The socialist BSW party is taking votes from the SPD and DIe Linke Left, from Free Democrats and Greens in the state parliamentary elections in East German states of Thuringia, Saxony, Brandenburg. Nationally SPD may be 15-20%, BSW 10%, and CDU 30%, AfD 10-15%, FDP 10%, Greens 10% in a new shape for German parliamentary representation. The AfD and far right in Germany is challenged by the BSW with both parties opposing policies that led to large scale migrant flows into Germany of Angela Merkel.  BSW is the socialist party of Sarah Wagenknecht which is opposed to migrants entering the country as it distracts from tackling the problems of the working class in Germany and burdens public services when needs are greater among the local communities.  It sees the ruling Christian Democrats, Social Democrat and Free Demcorats, Greens, as out of touch with the problems of working class Germans struggling to make a living. BSW also opposes the wars in Ukraine and Gaza for the same reasons as it takes away resources that are better used to tackle problems at home. The AfD party also opposes migrants but is seen as feeding on the grievances of people of old east German communist state who feel left behind by the reunification of Germany. As a socialist party BSW is for addressing problems of inequality and poverty, childcare, cost of living action, housing, and many of the problems of the working class. Mette Frederiksen Danish prime minister has combined socialist ideas with anti-migrant position in Denmark. A similar position is being taken in the US by the Biden Harris administration in the US by closing the Border with Mexico.  Who is Sahra Wagenknecht and the BSW? Bundnis Sarah Wagenknecht or Association of Sarah Wagenknecht is a socialist party that grew out of Sarah Wagenknecht's own experience growing up in the socialist state of the German Democratic Republic during her formative years in East Berlin.  Born to a Iranian father who disappeared in Iran, and a German mother she was raised by her grandparents. She was active in the socialist parties Die Linke group in parliament since 2000. She received her bachelors degree in philosophy and New German Literature at East Berlin Humboldt University. Followed by MA at Groningen University in philosophy of Marx-Hegel and a doctoral degree from TU Chemnitz in Economics. She was member of parliament in the Bundestag and leader of the Die Linke group. The twin 2009 financial crisis by banks pursuing excessive leverage profits and unethical dealings, the euro crisis that followed of state actors misrepresenting their finances, the rent seeking attitudes of finance, pharma, tech monopolies and other industries has led her along with Italian economist Mazzucato to question the existing system. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Better balance sheets, higher resale values, the trend away from subprime financing, and a lineup of vehicles that give better mileage (even with trucks acounting for 50% of sales) with the shift to lighter crossover vehicles, will help Detroit automakers face higher gas prices. These factors should help prevent a replay of the very serious problems of 2008, when gas prices exceeded $4.00 a gallon and the U.S. faced a financial crisis. At that time in 2008 vehicle sales declined by 18% and truck sales were down by 25%, according to Credit Suisse.

LyrArc Article Gist
The S&P speculative grade composite index shows that for the first time sine the crisis hit in October of 2009, high yield debt traded June 5, 2009 at 9.66 percentage point premium over comparable Treasurys. This is below the distressed debt benchmark of 10%, and shows how the credit markets are coming back to normal. High yield issuers, who pay a big premium over Treasurys to sell debt have had to pay at spreads which reached apeak of 17.54% in December according to S&P data. The retailing and auto sectors were the hardest hit in 2008. Merril Lynch has its own index which has not dropped below 10%, and which peaked at 22 percentage points in December. On June 4, Merrill's index was at 11.01 percentage points. The last time Merrill's index went above 10% was in 2002, and in 2006 before the crisis the index was at 2.41 percentage points.

LyrArc Article Gist
Apple, Caterpillar, and Microsoft, Amex pushed the Dow higher to get to 50,000 from 25,000 in 2018 in just 9 years when it took decades to get to 25,000. Sales Force, because of AI threat, Boeing because of its engineering and quality issues acted as laggard. Exxon was removed, Chevron stayed on. Intel was taken out and Nvidia took its place. The PE ratio in 2026 for Dow is 22 times earnings. Companies with higher stock price Goldman $929 a share as an example have a bigger impact in moves of the Dow just because of the higher price per share. Compared to Apple at $249 a share. The calculation is to take the price s of 30 stocks add them together and divide by a factor that adds effect of stock splits and new index entrants. That factor was 0.162 in 2025. Note that it took 76 years to 1972 to get to 1000 for the Dow Jones Average in 1972.

LyrArc Article Gist
VW's Scout Motors plans in 2026 to sell direct to buyers. A Scout Motors VP says of VW's plans- “We have heard over and over again, ‘Please give me an alternative. You see that there is very little trust in auto dealers today.”  Dealers have lobbied to have the laws in US set so that no one else but dealers can sell cars. Yet this may be becoming an outdated way to sell cars if car makers can provide good service over 10 years to buyers and make the whole process of buying and owning a car a pleasant experience for owners. It is far from that today and the experience is not one that is consistent in quality and have ease of use as the experience varies with each dealer and can change with a single dealer over time, quality is not assured.

LyrArc Article Gist
India received $135 billion in remittances in 2024-25 from the 18.5 million Indian diaspora, of which 10 million live in the Middle East region sending $51 billion a year. This finances the merchandise trade deficit.  In UAE alone there are 247,000 Indian students and immigrant labor is the main labor supply in the Gulf kingdoms.  Crude oil of 25-30 million barrels is on the seas as inventory to which India has access making crude oil supplies not an issue for the short term. Indian refinery production for export can also be adjusted if needed. India has received a 100 day exemption to import Russian oil from the US since the Gulf war began easing concerns for crude oil supplies. Situation for LPG is more complicated. India has used the Chabahar port to ship supplies of aid to Afghanistan on an overland route which will not operate till the tensions ease. 

LyrArc Article Gist
British MP raises issue of Arab Gulf countries providing 37% of China's oil imports, excluding Iraq 27%, vs 11% from Iran and 20% from Russia- 2024 US EIA. Tom Tugendhat says China has to balance its interests in the region after the closure of the Straits of Hormuz, between Iran, Gulf monarchies, and Russia. China also faces a more credible choice of accelerating the development of renewable energy in the same way that India and the European Union face. US will act as a supplier of last resort  adding Venezuelan and other supplies but temporarily as the entire Middle East region poses quandaries for China, the US, and India, European Union. The quandary stems from the irreconciliable differences between religious sects in the region, post 1950 ideological and religious militancy,  in which neither China, India, the US, Russia or the European Union wants to get drawn into after 5 decades of bitter experience in the Middle East.

LyrArc Article Gist
FIFA's $3 billion in revenue from ticket sales is 3 times what it was in Qatar, prices per game are double that in Qatar. What's going on? FIFIA is being accused of price gouging practices by the Attorney Generals of New Jersey and New York. Six games including the finals are to be played in the NY-NJ area. FIFA's Infantino says it will use $11 billion in soccer revenues (90% of tickets sold for the World Cup in the US/Mexico) for this nonprofit to do soccer projects around the world.  Fans are not happy with the way FIFA is extracting higher prices to put visiting the game beyond the reach of ordinary households. Shouldn't making  it possible to watch the game for ordinary income soccer fans also be part of FIFA's responsibility- instead of taking the opportunities for visiting soccer fields away from ordinary income people. 

LyrArc Article Gist
The grace and good sense of railway announcement person Zende at Victoria Terminus in Mumbai that saved many lives during the Mumbai attacks on 11/26/2008.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Socialist party is likely to win the most seats in the Dutch parliament in the Sept 12, 2012 elections. Research firms TNS NIPO and Peil.nl polls show the Socialist Party winning 37 seats up from 15 currently, in a 150 member Dutch parliament. The Liberal party in the ruling coalition is expected to win 30 seats down from 31 currently. The right wing Freedom party that withdrew from the ruling coalition is shown as winning 18 seats down from 24 seats currently. The Socialist party will need to form a coalition with the Labor party which is expected to win 17 seats down from 30 seats currently. Because of the fragmentation of seats between parties, a Socialist-Labor coalition will still need the support of other parties. The current coalition government's austerity drive is not popular with voters leading to a shift. The EC estimate is for a 0.9% decline in GDP in 2012, with 0.7% growth in 2013, but with the global slowdown underway this recovery is in doubt. Offical government estimates show a slowing economy for years, and the need for 20 billion in euros in budget savings for 2013-2017. The Socialist party leader Emile Roemer, wants more time to reduce the budget deficit to 3% of GDP, to do this by 2015 instead of the 2013 target set by Mr. Rutte in the current ruling coalition. Roemer also supports a broadening of the ECB's mandate from price stability to stimulating the economy for creating jobs....

LyrArc Article Gist
Much of China's strong GDP growth year after year of 9-12% was generated through large fixed investments in manufacturing. More than 40% of GDP is from factory construction or fixed asset investment in housing and infrastructure. And this spawned suddenly on its own a whole generation of new small business bootstrap entrepreneurs, as if from nowhere, who were good at adapting and seeking out new opportunities as new factories and exports shot upwards. GDP multiplied 14 fold from 1980's. And created 5 million businesses of over 8 employees each, according to the State Administration for Industry and Commerce. In the processs creating 75 million jobs for university graduates, workers from state companies and fro migrants from the rural areas. These private companies and their investment spending make up half of the 2008 GDP of $4.42 trillion. But with the export model heavily dependent on overseas markets especially the USA, the collapsing export markets is shrinking production and investment. Industrial production which went up by 16% annually for 5 years, dropped to 3.8% for Jan-Feb 2009. Mr Yu and his company GenTech, profiled here, was an engineer who studied engineering in Beijing, then at Newcastle University in the UK, worked for Cargill in Iowa, and looked for opportunities away from agricultural engineering. Adapting to China's needs in first semiconductors and then solar equipment assembly lines, he provided the high tech tubing for the gases and chemicals used in manufacturing assembly lines, competing with the likes of Air Products and Chemicals of the USA....