LyrArc Article Gist
The impact of the resignation of Alexei Kudrin, Russia's Finance Minister, on financial markets and the value of the ruble.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russia's government lowers its forecast for GDP growth in 2013 to 1.8%. Like other emerging markets Russia is facing a slowdown in economc growth. Government forecasts are for 3% growth for 2014 and 2015. About 50% of revenues in the budget come from oil exports and Russia is still dependent on higher oil prices. The budget is likely to have a 1% of GDP deficit in 2015. President Putin is not inclined to run a large deficit to increase growth. Budget revenues are expected to come lower for 2014 and 2015 by 3.3% and 6.9% compared to forecasts. Finance ministry policy is for hiking taxes on mineral extraction 16% by 2015, and increasing excise taxes on cigarettes and alcohol. State run firms will be asked to pay out 35% of profits as dividends compared to the current 25%, providing $39 billion from this action, according to the Finance ministry.

LyrArc Article Gist
BP announces a $8 billion share buyback in March 2013. BP received $12.5 billion and an 18.5% stake in Rosneft for selling its stake in the TNK-BP joint venture. BP will use the rest of the money from the sale to reduce its debt.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bill Keller of the New York Times, reflects on his experience in Moscow during the fall of communism, and the Russian youth then and their children in the protest marches in Moscow today. He sees a new generation with different expectations, not limited by the past in what they think is possible, should be and is normal.

LyrArc Article Gist
Energy Aspects, London based consultancy, estimates non-OPEC production declines of 700,000 barrels a day, up from previous forecasts of 200,000-300,000 barrels a day. Demand is expected to be higher than supply by June 2016, and drawing down inventory from that time. Agreement to freeze production is uncertain at a Doha meeting of OPEC countries, with Iran planning to increase production from 3.1 million barrels a day currently to 4 million barrels a day. Saudis increased production to 10 million barrels a day in 2015, and Iran is determined to increase its production to the higher level. The price of U.S. oil rebounded to $42.17 by April 2016.

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Putin administration in Russia has set a goal for 2.5% GDP growth for 2013. The figures for the first 5 months of 2013 show growth at 1.8%. Russian president Putin told the St. Petersburg Economic Forum that central bank policies will continue inflation targeting. Putin's economic aide Ms. Elvira Nabiullina will become the new head of the central bank in July 2013. David Lipton, deputy head of the IMF told the forum the IMF assessment is that there is no slack in the Russian economy. Putin announced $13.6 billion in infrastructure investment for rail and road links, and liberalization of gas export rules, and improvements in the judicial system.

LyrArc Article Gist
Russian president, Vladimir Putin, tells academics and journalists at an event called the Valdai Discussion Club, he had reservations about expanding the state sector by approving the deal for Rosneft to acquire TNK-BP assets. His motivation for doing this was the endless shareholder conflict between the Russian partners and BP. Putin says he warned British prime minister Tony Blair that a 50%-50% ownership venture would not work as nobody was in control, and described this as so bad that "sometimes they were fighting each other with their bare hands." The injection of private ownership into Rosneft with the 20% stake for BP would provide stability for the company and was the bright side to this. Foreign academics and journalists participate in three days of discussions with Russian academics and journalists in this event. Putin has no new vision for this third term beyond consolidating and protecting the achievements of the last decade. He cited as his achievements- growth of the economy, expansion of the foreign exchange reserves, and the increase in the birthrate....

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip points out that Saudi Arabia's effort to get back market share is not working so far as shale oil producers continue to increase production. OPEC now confronts a very different competitor in the U.S. shale oil industry- 77 different producers produce 75% of American oil production, each acting like a tech startup, with access to capital markets which are continuing to provide capital. These producers can increase or reduce production with agility, and act differently from state owned oil producers or the major western oil companies. He cites Goldman Sachs figures showing average rig in Texas Eagle Ford shale yielding 5000 barrels a day in the first year compared to 2000 barrels in 2011. This analysis also shows shale oil production cost on a declining curve- $80 in 2014 and $60 in 2015, which could upset Saudi calculations with the advances in technology. Majors such as ExxonMobil are also moving forward with the technological advances.

LyrArc Article Gist
Questions about the viability of Canadian crude oil production from tar sands and shale as oil prices for Canadian crude are at about $17 in Jan. 2016. Western Canadian Select from Alberta traded at about $14 in Jan 2016. Crude oil NY benchmark is at $31, other crude is priced lower if transportation costs and other factors including quality and grade have to be figured in.

LyrArc Article Gist
Lee describes the problems the Russian economy faces with the depletion of the Reserve Fund following collapse of oil prices. Finance minister Siluanov says the Reserve Fund could run out by 2017. The National Wealth Fund hols $73 billion and is used for infrastructure projects and bank bailouts, and pensions. The defense budget is expected to decline by 5% in 2016 as the military buildup slows from a slower economy. The World Bank predicts a poverty rate of 14.2%. The 50% decline in the ruble has hurt imports. The lack of access to international capital markets has also hurt growth, even though Russia has only small debt.

LyrArc Article Gist
Use of oil for transportation has increased from 30% ten years ago to nearly 50% in 2013, according to Sanford Bernstein, as more cars are added to China's roads. This makes it less likely that a slowdown in China's growth will affect demand for oil. Sales of passenger cars increased by 11% in January and February 2014. A study at France's central bank by Gauvin and Rebillard shows only a much smaller effect on oil prices from a hard landing of the Chinese economy, compared to the effect on metal prices. Passenger cars now make up two out of three vehicles on Chinese roads, according to LMC Automotive. The growth in cars is likely to continue, not just in China, but in other emerging markets such as India, Brazil, Mexico and Russia. Metal consumption is different, as it comes mostly from housing, infrastructure and factories which are the most affected parts of the economy in China.

LyrArc Article Gist
The benchmark price of U.S. crude oil dropped to $31.41 a barrel on January 11, 2016, as oil prices continued to drop sharply following a slowdown in China, appreciation in the U.S. dollar and no cuts in production from Saudi Arabia. Analysts expect a crisis for energy producers that is deeper than ones in 1986, and five plunges in oil price all the way back to 1970. With the oil prices at $30 and expected to drop below $30, the companies that took on a lot of debt have no choice but to keep up production. In the process many may find themselves in bankruptcy. Private equity with capital of $100 billion is likely to come in at this point to buy cheap assets without the debt, say analysts. U.S. banks energy portfolios are small, with Wells Fargo energy exposure only 2% for oil and gas loans in the third quarter of 2015, or about $17 billion. Loans that are rated "sub-standard. doubtful or loss," are projected at 15% of loans to energy producers, about $34.2 billion, in a biannaual review by banking regulators. The unusual aspect of this energy price slump is that production is not declining with falling prices- oil production in the U.S. was estimated by the government at 9.2 million barrels a day in Jan 2016- 1% higher than at the beginning of 2015 when prices were over $40 a barrel....