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Deficit reduction talks between the Obama White House and Republicans in July 2011.
07/07/2011
The talks are part of an effort to reach agreement on raising the debt ceiling by an August 2011 deadline. Skepticism among Democrats about the talks and the deep cuts proposed that could lead to a setback for the economy.
Linked Articles
Negotiating the Debt Ceiling on a Knife's Edge
New York Times 07/07/2011
What Obama WantsNew York Times 07/07/2011
The June 2011 European Union plan for Greece faces strong criticism for being unworkable
07/01/2011
This plans doubles the interest rate for Greece debt owed to French and German banks under a French banking proposal. Sharp spending cuts and tax increases face opposition inside Greece and their negative impact on economic growth may leave Greece with a much larger debt to GDP ratio in 2011 than in 2010.
Linked Articles
Greece and the euro: The abuses of austerity
Economist 07/02/2011
Move Buys Time for Greece, But Growing Debt LoomsWall Street Journal 07/01/2011
The slow economic growth in Italy and the impact on Italy's debt sustainability
06/24/2011
Linked Articles
Italy Seeks to Spur Growth, Narrowing Gap With Peers
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2011
Italy Needs a Growth RenaissanceWall Street Journal 06/24/2011
Austerity measures and economic contraction in Portugal 2010-2013- the terms of the 2011 EU-IMF loan agreement with Portugal
05/05/2011
The forecasts of higher unemployment reaching 17% and economic contraction of 7% for 2011-2013 are widely diverging from the original estimates in 2011 by EU and IMF officials. This increases the urgency for reappraisal of the terms of the original agreement including borrowing rates, giving more time to achieve deficit targets, and other action to put Portugal back on the road to growth in 2014.
Linked Articles
Portugal to Seek New Bailout Terms
Wall Street Journal 03/04/2013
Government Sees Deep Recession Ahead for PortugalNew York Times 05/05/2011
China's rising debt burden and growing risks to the economy
03/09/2011
Linked Articles
China's Debt Burden Limits Policy Leeway
Wall Street Journal 03/09/2011
Beijing's Financial Day of Reckoning Is NearWall Street Journal 06/21/2011
Failures in China's financial system as seen by two bankers
12/11/2010
Failures in China's banking system as seen by two bankers Walter and Howie. The risks to the Chinese economy of real debt to GDP ratios that are upwards of 80% of GDP when local government and other debt that would end up as sovereign debt is taken into account. The inability of the system in China to control lending to state enterprises and local government.
Linked Articles
China's financial system: Look again
Economist 12/11/2010
Beijing's Financial Day of Reckoning Is NearWall Street Journal 06/21/2011
A Brady Plan type solution to the debt crisis in Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries
11/30/2010
The extension of maturities for the debt of these countries is a key part of the solution. The Brady Plan that helped sove the Latin American debt crisis of the eighties and nineties is an example of the way out of the crisis. Resistance from bankers to taking losses of upto 30% and extending the maturities for debt. The need for Germany and other countries to set aside money that would be needed to recapitalize banks that need funds to handle these losses. Nicholas Brady when asked about this says it is important for this to be "a unified decision." This would create the confidence in the financial markets that will be needed.
Linked Articles
Europe's Central Banker Seeks Deeper Fiscal Union
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2011
Nervous Europe Trying to Halt Economic CrisisNew York Times 11/30/2010
Housing in a deep slump in 2011.
10/16/2010
Housing markets surveyed show rising inventories. The faulty documentation crisis likely to make things worse for banks with efforts to force banks to buyback loans.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/16/2010
Housing Gloom DeepensWall Street Journal 10/26/2010
Local governments and state-owned companies are fueling a real estate bubble in China in 2009-2010.
07/29/2010
Northwestern University Prof. Shih estimates that state banks in China hold $1.68 trillion in debt of local investment companies which invest for local governments. In many cases the banks have little collateral. The central government in China aggressively supported this lending to quickly get money to projects in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, but this may have backfired with money going into speculation and building a bubble.
Linked Articles
Chinaâs Real Estate Boom and Conflicting Policy
New York Times 08/01/2010
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Difficulties for Italian borrowing in capital markets
05/14/2010
Larger spreads between Italian and German bonds that add to the interest rate burden on large debt.
Linked Articles
Italy Seeks to Spur Growth, Narrowing Gap With Peers
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2011
Italy's debt fuels worriesWall Street Journal 05/14/2010
Debt woes and how they affect the upturn in Europe.
12/09/2009
Countries like Spain and Greece and how the debt woes affect their economic growth.
Linked Articles
Spain's Debt Woes Echo Europe's Uneven Rebound
Wall Street Journal 12/10/2009
Countries' Debt Woes Pose Risk to UpturnWall Street Journal 12/09/2009
The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
As the government sells $5 trillion in new debt by one estimate, the problem of an estimated $ 1 trillion in troubled assets on the banks books is being put off for another day.
06/04/2009
The FDIC's Legacy Loans Program's $1 billion pilot program attracts no interest. The Public Private Partnership Program of Secretary Geithner, like Secretary Paulson's TARP program before Geithner, is also unlikely to attract much interest as banks are not willing to take the prices that would require them to show large losses on their books. But this means that these problems are postponed for another day.
Linked Articles
Plan to Help Banks Clear Their Books Is Halted
New York Times 06/04/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
Krauthammer is critical of the Obama White House for using debt reduction to advance its 2012 election campaign
07/07/2011
Krauthammer points to the lack of initiative by the Obama administration in debt reduction.
Linked Articles
The Elmendorf Rule - The Washington Post
Washington Post 07/09/2011
Negotiating the Debt Ceiling on a Knife's EdgeNew York Times 07/07/2011
The Wall Street Journal calls the June 2011 E.U. plan for Greece "the French deception," and the Economist says it is doomed to failure
06/30/2011
Doubling the interest rate on loans owed by Greece to French and German banks is called "the French deception" by the Journal . The Economist sees the sharp spending cuts and tax increases having enough detrimental impact on economic growth to make the debt load larger than before.
Linked Articles
Greece and the euro: The abuses of austerity
Economist 07/02/2011
The French DeceptionWall Street Journal 06/30/2011
Impact of a slowdown in China and a global slowdown on different countries
06/08/2011
A slowdown in China will affect commodity exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil and Chile, and exporters of machinery such as Germany and Japan. A global economic slowdown will make it harder for troubled eurozone countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to reduce their debt burden. It will affect U.S. exports which are increasing in 2011, and are the one bright spot for a economic recovery.
Linked Articles
What a China Slowdown Means for the World
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
Euro-Zone Cuts Face World of PainWall Street Journal 06/08/2011
How U.S. student debt of over $1 trillion in 2011 can delay a recovery in the U.S. housing market and have serious implications for the U.S. economy
04/11/2011
Linked Articles
Student-Loan Debt Tops $1 Trillion
Wall Street Journal 03/22/2012
College Loans Weigh Heavier on GraduatesNew York Times 04/11/2011
Angela Merkel's experience with the reunification of East and West Germany and her views of the eurozone crisis
01/30/2011
The perceptions of the eurozone crisis of ordinary Germans and of former East German Angela Merkel are colored by the period of reunification of the two Germany's. This was paid for with a"solidarity surcharge" tax paid by Germans amounting to $1.7 trillion and led in its early stages to 4 million unemployed in the eastern part and 20% unemployment. It took over a decade for East Germany to build new modernized industries in the larger cities of the east, but still leaves the rural parts of former East Germany in a neglected state as young peoplemoved out. During this period industry in the west also regained lost global competitiveness, especially in industries such as automobiles and advanced machinery, using wage restraint agreements with unions and increases in productivity. Germans see the need for eurozone countries in the southern part of Europe needing to make similiar sacrifices and see the tax evasion in Italy and Greece as unacceptable. The real estate bubble, the lack of transparency for banks bad loans, and out of control regional spending in Spain is also seen in a similiar light. Greece is seen as the most egregious offendor because of the bad financial accounting that grossly understated the extent of the bad loans. Less publicized in Germany is the role played in the bad loans through poor lending practices of German and French banks and that as experts have pointed out Germany was to some extent bailing out German banks when it was bailing out Greece- till German banks reduced their exposure to Greece in 2011.
Linked Articles
In former East Germany, anxious residents resent paying for Europe’s problems - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/21/2012
Merkel's Defense of Euro Forged in East GermanyNew York Times 01/30/2011
Taylor and Cochrane say the French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion in the Greece debt crisis from the beginning
12/02/2010
Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. Taylor at Stanford University, say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning as a way to delay writedowns on Greek bonds held by the banks. The appearance of lurching from one summit negotiation to the next throughout 2011 dented confidence in the eurozone with slowing or negative growth in eurozone economies, and is likely to hurt banks operating in the new economic enviroment.
Linked Articles
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
The Brady plan and the expert opinion of John Cochrane and others about the need to extend the maturities of the debt of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries.
11/30/2010
Linked Articles
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
Nervous Europe Trying to Halt Economic CrisisNew York Times 11/30/2010
The U.S. Federal Reserve's increased purchase of Treasury debt with QE1 and QE2 and only slight increase in economic growth in the U.S.
10/07/2010
IHS Global Insight, Macroeconomic Advisors, and Moodys Analytics models showing insignificant impact on U.S. from QE1, QE2 efforts. Nigel Gault, IHS Global Insight's model showing only a 0.1% increase in U.S. growth rate from $500 billion of purchases by the U.S. Federal Reserve.
Linked Articles
QE2-Inspired Stock Rally May Soon Disappear
Wall Street Journal 08/08/2011
Fed’s $2 Trillion May Buy Little Improvement in JobsBusinessWeek 10/07/2010
The threat posed by China's local government debt to China's banking and financial system
07/29/2010
Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the estimates of the local government debt varies from 27% to 42% of GDP. Prof Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, now estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. Other estimates from the National Audit Office put this at 27% and from China's central bank put this at 30%. Prof Shih's earlier estimate was 34%. Because of the large number of local government entities and the lack of transparency the figures may actually turn out to be higher as China's regulators and other analysts improve their estimates. The 42% estimate is $2.6 trillion in local government debt. China's large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and low interest rates will give China some space for addressing the problem with another round of injection of capital into the banking system.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Efforts to keep the problems of Greece from spreading to Spain and Portugal.
05/03/2010
Germany's approval of aloan for Greece, the $110 IMF plan, the announcement of trillion dollar EU support plan, and the new Zapatero austerity budget are designed to keep the problem from spreading.
Linked Articles
Spain is simply shifting the problem
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2010
Germany Clears Rescue for GreeceNew York Times 05/03/2010
World Bank chief Zoellick on the global economy and how to prepare an effective long tem policy
10/02/2009
Zoellick sees the short term Stimulus and central bank monetary easing policies of 2008, as not appropriate to the long term problems of debt reduction and energy price volatility. He emphasizes the need for bridge financing for Spain and Italy though he accepts the German view that credit cannot be provided freely and reforms need to be undertaken. A partial euro bond solution is a step in the right direction.
Linked Articles
World Bank Chief Urges Euro Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/31/2012
2010 Looks 'Highly Uncertain,' Zoellick SaysWall Street Journal 10/02/2009
Discussion between Goolsbee who favored lettting Chrysler go out of business and Summers who was concerned about the loss of jobs.
06/08/2009
Efforts by Jim Press and Chrysler to gain credibility with the government about its viability, by pushing slaes allottments to dealers. Jim Press did this even as inventory remained unsold on dealer lots. In the White House the debate between advisors was about a decision on Chrysler's future.
Linked Articles
Dealers Say They Were Led Astray in Chrysler's Final Days
Washington Post 06/16/2009
Obama’s Economic Circle Keeps Tensions SimmeringNew York Times 06/08/2009
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