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Peter Coy says that as long as unemployment numbers keep going up and foreclosures keep increasing as aresult of the job losses housing prices will keep falling. He says that they may have to fall 20% more than the level they are at today. And that the foreclosure levels could become atidal wave if it becomes easier for alot of people to just hand their keys to the banks. This was what Martin Feldstein warned aginst in the WSJ oped pages several times in 2008. As more people are under water it makes sense to just hand the keys to the banks, and as long as this goes on, the economic recovery will be put off. A study cited by Coy done by Reinhart and Rogoff shows that housing crisis of this magnitude last about 6 years before all the bad effects wear off. And in addition to housing there are other things at work in this crisis especially in the job loss rate which is increasing (663,000 jobs lost in March), and the readjustment in savings rate upto 6.4% according to BW for 2009 till March, which suggests a serious drop in the consumption rate is underway and may go on for several years crimping demand and increasing unused manufacturing capacity. The stories in the media and other information reinforce this statistical information. The bit of good new from hard hit housing markets in California and Nevada and other staes has to be seen as no more than a limited play in the foreclosure markets, that does little to the broad brush strokes that are ocurring on the national and world landscapes in job losses and consumption. Coy a veteran analyst who has covered the housing market and warned during the boom of the likelihood of abust in a cover issue at the time, brings experience and reflection to the developments, and urges serious caution in interpreting signals that may have no broad meaning....

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A Wall Street Journal Survey of how the credit ratings firms have performed in prediciting looming defaults. The Journal's Matt Wirz looked at 35 years of data. He found the ratings firms did not do an effective job with predicting defaults in the 12 month period before an actual default. Of the 15 government defaults since 1975 tracked by S&P, S&P's sovereign ratings division rated 12 of the countries single B or higher in the 12 months preceding the default. S&P says a single-B rating on sovereign debt signifies that the government has only a 2% average default rate in the next 12 months. For Moody's Investors Service the figures show that of the 13 governments rated by Moody's, 11 were rated B or higher one year before an actual default. By contrast the investment grade ratings of the credit ratings firms have worked better- as no government defaulted within 15 years of having a tripe-A, double-A, or a single-A rating. Ratings firms say that the ratings indicate a relative default risk for countries and not an actual default probability, a rank ordering for different countries and their relative risk. Research chiefs at investment management firms point out that once a crisis develops the ratings firms are not much help. They also say the ratings firms use static indicators like current account balances and other critical indicators for countries in emerging markets such as political sentiment and bank deposit flows get less attention. Historically bond yields have priced in higher risk premiums into government bonds before a default and investors look at the bond yields in assessing risk conditions, and not at the ratings which change only slowly. Brazil and Argentina both had a double B-minus rating in Jan. 2001. A year later Argentina had defaulted....

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Both sides harden positions before the June 30th deadline for 1.5 billion euro repayment of debt to the IMF. Greece's prime minister Tsipras accuses the IMF of "criminal responsibility" for the pain of austerity programs in Greece. Eurozone leaders says Greece's default on its debt and exit from the eurozone is a possibility. The Economist points out that a Greek default and Greece's exit from the eurozone would be a mistake. It points out that this means repudiating debts of 317 billion euros, or about 180% of GDP. Yet the repayment is at low interest rates spread out over decades. Until the early 2020's interest rates are about 3% of GDP a year. In theory a devaluation would help exports, but Greece with its small trading position, may not see much benefit. The drop in nominal wages by 16% has not led to a surge in exports. The cost in terms of broken banks, sharp decline in savings, and collapse of confidence could be disastrous. The very people Syriza is trying to protect the poor and elderly, would be hit hardest, as the collapse in the currency would lead to a shift to a barter economy as in Argentina during its default crisis. For the European Union, the problem would not go away, as it would have to deal with a bigger problem of a failed state on the Aegean on the EU's southern flank. Syriza's gamble that this can be used to extract concessions by holding off till the last minute is failing, because it is leading Greece back to contraction after the small growth in 2014 under prime minister Samaras- with capital flight from the banks and investors leaving in a general fall in confidence. The management of the economy and negotiations by Syriza is now seen as incompetent and has jeopardized any difficult progress made....

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General Electric, GE, experienced a steep decline in the last decade. The worst news came in 2018 with the loss of half its share price and market value. One story tells about an employee who was forced out of retirement back to work seeing the loss of value in GE shares in 2018. Rarely has a company of this size seen a fall in stock price this steep, for a stock that was once seen as safe for widows. About 60% of GE business comes from jet engines, electric power generators and wind turbines. GE now plans to sell its health care business and other business that do not relate to core infrastructure in energy, aerospace, and other markets. Under Jack Welch a faulty model of adding diverse businesses that had nothing to do with its core business and expertise in infrastructure were added. A home mortgage lending business was added and GE Capital expanded. NBC Universal was added with little justification in a period when CEO's acted without much consultation. The home mortgage lending unit collapsed with large losses during the 2008 financial crisis and GE's share price dropped drastically to $6.00. Under Welch's successor Mr. Immelt the GE Capital unit was shrunk in size, but losses continued to mount. An oil field service unit was added which also sustained losses.  Immelt's successor Flannery faced a loss of $15 billion from the financial lending unit. Sale of some businesses was not sufficient to meet the loss. Flannery is now taking GE out of all the businesses which were not core business. The NBC Universal television business was sold to Comcast in 2013. GE Healthcare is next. This closes a bad chapter in GE's story under Welch and Immelt. GE's dividend was cut for the second time since the Great Depression. The story of GE is also the story of American business during the last two decades, with icons such as GM, Ford and GE suffering decline, businesses that operated like little fiefdoms of old nobility in Europe, with CEO's operating in a CEO centric culture, not tolerating contrary opinion for informed debate on issues facing the business. Alfred Sloan founder of Genral Motors called constructive debate central to good management. Later Intel CEO Andy Grove coined the phrase constructive confrontation as a way of constructive debate, and the CEO was shown as the first of equals. The CEO centric management ignored these warnings and admonitions in running their fiefdoms.   ...

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The lack of U.S. leadership and slow response by the Obama administration to the rapidly developing situation in the region risks spillover effects from Syria to affect the entire Middle East. Russia's stakes are minimal in the region because it is simply trying to retain some of its old influence in the region, yet it is having an outsized influence in the region through its early military assistance to the Assad regime. The stakes are much higher for the U.S. because of the decade spent and resources invested in Iraq, higher for Iraq with its need for civil harmony between Shiite and Sunni communities, for Turkey with its large Kurdish minority and flow of refugees from the border with Syria, for Saudi Arabia as a defender of Sunni interests. Without active U.S. leadership the situation is allowed to drift and young people of the Free Syrian Army are basically taking on the bulk of the role of resolving the situation. France's Sarkozy and Britain's Cameron offered this kind of leadership in Libya as Libya's young people struggled to resolve the situation there. ...

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In an effort to not cede the market in tablets and smartphones completely to Apple and Google, and e-books to Amazon, Microsoft is now in an alliance with Barnes & Noble's Nook digital business, and Nokia in smartphones. The deal with Barnes & Noble's Nook, includes an agreement to bring out a Nook application that will bring access to digital books, magazines and newspapers to Windows devices. Microsoft will get a share of revenues from sales of this content. For Barnes & Noble this is an alliance with a well funded company, at a time when the digital business is losing money because of the huge investments needed to compete. Markets recognized this by pricing Barnes & Noble shares over 50% higher after the announcement, up to $20.75.

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The discount for Canadian crude oil prices, because of higher shale oil output in the U.S. midwest and lack of enough pipeline capacity to get Canadian crude to Gulf Coast refineries, is affecting the Canadian economy. The lower price for Canadian crude was at about $20 per barrel lower than the U.S. benchmark price in April 2013. This discount has reduced Canada's GDP growth for the second half of 2012 by 0.4%, according to the Canadian central bank. The discount was as high as $40 to U.S. benchmark price for Canadian heavy crude in January and Febuary 2013. Continued discount is expected till enough pipeline capacity is created for Alberta's heavy crude to get to Gulf Coast refineries in the U.S.

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Prime minister Mario Monti responded with humor to the remark of former prime minister Berlusconi before the June 2012 summit of European leaders that he could unplug the Monti government, by saying that his government was not a home appliance. In August Monti's long intervew with the Wall Street Journal is published in which he says the Italian bond spreads with German bonds would be 1200 or something if Berlusconi was still running the government. Angelinia Alfano, of Berlusconi's party, the People of Freedom party, calls this "nonsensical" and the parliamentary whip calls this a "stupid provocation." WSJ's Alessandra Galloni intervewed the Italian premier. Monti's office says he called Berlusconi saying he regretted the "banal and abstract extrapolation of a trend in spread values, which was included in a wide ranging interview with the WSJ, was taken as a political consideration, which was not at all the intention."

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French prime minister Edouard Philippe says that France will meet the 3% of GDP deficit target in 2017 and this will require restraint in spending. Over the 5 year term of president Macron France will cut spending by 3% of GDP. The new government still plans to meet investment and tax cuts that were planned, including a $50 billion euro investment program. Over the 5 year term taxes will decline by 1% of GDP, said Philippe. 

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New five year broadcasting deals for the Indian Premier League that will bring in 5 billion pounds over five years. With 74 matches this comes to 14 million pounds per match, a record for world cricket and bigger than soccer. Disney's Star network gets television rights, TV18 and Paramount venture gets the digital rights. Much of this revenue will be used by India's cricket organization Board of Control for Cricket in India to build infrastructure and improve the experience of fans, spruce up facilities.

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The US abortions increased by about 9% from 2017 to 2020 says this report in WSJ, going from 862,000 to 930,000 according to the Guttmacher Institute. Some states expanded Medicaid access to abortions and increased funding, leading to more services being added. Illinois for example had 25% increase which may have included women from Missouri going to Illinois. If the Supreme Court reverses Roe vs. Wade, the 1973 precedent that established the constitutional right to abortion, 25 states would restrict or prevent the access to abortion.

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In a show of solidarity with Ukraine Scholz, Macron and Draghi, leaders of the German, French and Italian governments go by train to Irpin and Kviv. The US promises an additional $1 billion in aid this week. The Ukraine war is now mostly fought in the east in the Donbas region and near the town of Severodonetsk where Ukrainian forces face artillery barrages from the Russians and have taken heavy casualties. The longer range rockets needed to counter the Russian advance have not yet reached Ukraine from the US.

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The lack of Soviet era ammunition for older artillery from that period in the army of Ukraine puts Ukraine at a serious disadvantage in Donbas and eastern Ukraine. The war in eastern Ukraine is fought mostly with artillery. Soviet era artillery uses different ammunition than NATO artillery. Ukraine is now calling for NATO artillery to be sent by allies in Europe and the US so that its forces can be supplied with supplies of NATO ammunition. The US and Europe have been slow in providing NATO artillery to Ukraine.

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This report in WSJ shows how the US central bank, the Federal Reserve's increase in interest rates by 5 percentage points in the short space of 2 years affects Europe. It increases inflation in Europe as energy and many other products are priced in US dollars, with the strengthening of the dollar in relation to the euro. The dollar is $1.07 in relation to the euro. European Union is facing much higher inflation than the US. The German economy has slipped into a mild recession in 2023.

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Young people in the job market and retirees making less than Rs 60,000 a month will not pay any tax under the Budget for 2023 for India. Growth will be generated through capital spending on infrastructure improvements that is 33% higher in 2023 than in 2022. By keeping the fiscal deficit under 5.9% the government is encouraging private industry to invest for growth. This report in The Indian Express says the Modi government and finance minister Sitharaman are acting with fiscal prudence and yet maintaining momentum for future growth.

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Airbus boosts production of its widebody A350 jets from six to nine a month by 2025. The smaller 330neo will go from three to four a month. Both Airbus and Boeing have difficulties increasing production with an overstretched supply chain. Both airplane makers have late deliveries to customers. Boing is having problems increasing production of the 787 with the goal of making five a month shifted to the end of the year. The 777X aircraft the biggest to order is years behind in its development schedule.

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Hard work and discipline is a defining quality of the team Ten Haig is building at Manchester United. It helps to have Varane and Casemiro in defense. Haig was quick to respond after an interview given by Renaldo, sent Sancho to the Netherlands, and dropped Rashford for being late. Martinez was given only one day for partying in Buenos Aires after winning the world cup and he was back in Manchester. Ten Haig joins Mourinho as the first coach at Manchester United to win a trophy in his first season.

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Chancellor Scholz's visit to India with the heads of 12 large German companies and heads of medium size company business associations will lead to increasing economic cooperation between Germany and India. Bilateral trade is about 25 billion dollars. German companies such as Siemens are suppliers of rail locomotives for modernization of India's rail network. Topics for talks include the geopolitical situation in Europe with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, cooperation on climate change, utilization of German technologies, and increasing investment by German companies in India's economy.

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By multiple standards Greece had the deadliest rail system in Europe with neglect of basic safety features. The European Commission has given $700 million to Greece for modernization of railways. $117 million was given for safety for the Athens to Thessaloniki route alone. Yet little was done. The European Union Agency for Railways says it had an action plan for safety for Greece but there was little action from the Greek government. Even basic automatic braking was not operational at the time of the collision of two trains on one track. 

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The vote in Ohio in midwestern US for the Republican seat vacated by Rob Portman brings together voters concerned about crime, the Southern border and taxes. One of the candidates Mr. Vance, says problems closer to home are more important than Ukraine. This WSJ report looks at thinking in Ohio. About 88% of Republican have a negative opinion on Mr. Putin and 95% of Democrats. When it comes to helping Ukraine defend itself 35% of Democrats  and 62% of Republicans believe the US is not doing enough to help Ukraine defend itself.

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A ban on foreigners buying homes in Canada by the Trudeau government is intended to put a lid on house price increases. Immigration is increasing to Canada as Canada needs more people. About 3.5 million new homes have to be built in Canada to achieve house affordability for all. The government has proposed 465,000 new permanent residents in 2023 and 500,000 in 2025. Immigration from India and China and other Asian countries is the main source of permanent residents. The new infusion is needed as Canada's economy grows.

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The US lags far behind in the making of the raw materials that go into making lithium ion battery cells. The most costly component is cathode materials. Mr. Straubel, a former Chief Technology Officer at Tesla who started Redwood Materials is planning to invest $3.5 billion in making the cathode material at its Reno, Nevada plant. In this WSJ interview he discusses various aspects of this venture as the EV industry takes off with large battery investments in the US by Korean and American makers in batteries.

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The growing city of Monterey, Mexico, near the American state of Texas, is facing severe shortages of water as shown in this report in the NYT. Seven years of drought except for 2018 have left the Cerro Prieto and other dams nearby mostly dry. Water is sent in by truck from outside the region. This is an arid region and the lack of rainfall comes at a time when the population is growing in this part of the country, which is the largest industrial state in Mexico.

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Clearing parking lots for housing and office space in Buffalo and other cities. Local governments are erasing decades old minimum parking rules. Parking lots and garages that are increasingly unused in cities after the pandemic are being demolished as shown in this report in WSJ. Major retailers are leasing unused spaces for new development. This creates more space for people to live in. Urban planners say this reduces housing cost by adding more land availability, holds down rents, revitalizes cities following the pandemic, and mitigates a housing shortage.