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A Fragile Iraq Faces New Perils From Syriaâs War
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The lack of U.S. leadership and slow response by the Obama administration to the rapidly developing situation in the region risks spillover effects from Syria to affect the entire Middle East. Russia's stakes are minimal in the region because it is simply trying to retain some of its old influence in the region, yet it is having an outsized influence in the region through its early military assistance to the Assad regime. The stakes are much higher for the U.S. because of the decade spent and resources invested in Iraq, higher for Iraq with its need for civil harmony between Shiite and Sunni communities, for Turkey with its large Kurdish minority and flow of refugees from the border with Syria, for Saudi Arabia as a defender of Sunni interests. Without active U.S. leadership the situation is allowed to drift and young people of the Free Syrian Army are basically taking on the bulk of the role of resolving the situation. France's Sarkozy and Britain's Cameron offered this kind of leadership in Libya as Libya's young people struggled to resolve the situation there.
Spillover effects for Iraq, Turkey, Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and the U.S. from the civil war in Syria- Sept-Nov. 2012 and by 2014
05/21/2011
The Syrian civil war is spilling over into Iraq. Iraq is unable to protect its airspace from being used by Iran to ship supplies to the Assad regime, or to prevent Turkey's warplanes from using Iraqi airspace to attack Kurdish separatists. There is also a danger of a Sunni-Shiite conflict being exacerabated by former Sunni insurgents in Iraq joining up with Sunni refugees from Syria. The Maliki government in Iraq is moving closer to Iran as the Syrian civil war escalates and brings Sunnis together against the Assad regime. Turkey is also seeing the effects of a flow of refugees on its border with Syria. The Obama administration has been slow to respond to the rapidly developing situation as it concentrates on a complete withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq with the lack of agreement on a residual U.S. troop presence. This leaves the U.S. less than the minimum leverage that is needed just as the sectarian divisions are worsening, after years of investing resources in the region. With the EU countries focussed on economic problems, and the Obama administration's lack of active support for the Free Syria movement, the broader involvement of Iran, Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Russia in the region, the situation is likely to lead to an international crisis without U.S. leadership.
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