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Impact of a slowdown in China and a global slowdown on different countries
06/08/2011
A slowdown in China will affect commodity exporting countries such as Australia, Brazil and Chile, and exporters of machinery such as Germany and Japan. A global economic slowdown will make it harder for troubled eurozone countries such as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain to reduce their debt burden. It will affect U.S. exports which are increasing in 2011, and are the one bright spot for a economic recovery.
Linked Articles
What a China Slowdown Means for the World
Wall Street Journal 06/09/2011
Euro-Zone Cuts Face World of PainWall Street Journal 06/08/2011
Brazil's uneven economic development with growth focussed on export based mining and agriculture
05/21/2011
As the commodities boom fades Brazil's growth slows to 1% in 2012 after the rapid growth in the years under president Lula. Stiglitz and Sen pointed to this kind of uneven development with the neglect of education, healthcare and other public services. This is true also of economic development in China focussed on export industries, with the added cost of environmental degradation. Street protests in June 2013 in many Brazilian cities from Porto Alegre and Curitiba to Rio and Sao Paulo showed popular discontnet with the situation under president Rouseff.
Linked Articles
Brazil's north-east: Catching up in a hurry
Economist 05/21/2011
Anger Spills Onto Brazil's StreetsWall Street Journal 06/18/2013
Saudi expert Karen Elliott House's thirty years of experience covering the Middle East tell us that the U.S. policy is sorely out of touch in the Middle East
02/15/2011
Elliott House is a former publisher of the Wall Street Journal and a Pulitzer prize winner for covering the Middle East. She sees the Saudi Arabian princes sorely out of touch with the ordinary Saudis and the young people and U.S. policy at an impasse. Rice says the policy of supporting autocracy only brings a false kind of stability. She sees Egypt, Tunisia and the rest of the Arab world and thinks it did not have to be this way.
Linked Articles
Condoleezza Rice - The future of a democratic Egypt
Washington Post 02/16/2011
From Tunis to Cairo to Riyadh?Wall Street Journal 02/15/2011
How a services-led consumption based economy has failed America through a loss of jobs, prosperity and prestige.
01/21/2011
Jeffrey Immelt, CEO of GE, says the concept that the US could transition from a technology based export-oriented economic powerhouse to a services-led consumption based economy was fundamentally wrong. Mathew Slaughter of the Tuck School, Dartmouth, in a WSJ op-ed piece argues for a textbook principle of comparitive advantage, without considering the way it operates in a real the real world situation facing America as it struggles for economic renewal.
Linked Articles
Comparative Advantage and American Jobs
Wall Street Journal 01/26/2011
Jeffrey R. Immelt - A blueprint for keeping America competitiveWashington Post 01/21/2011
Germany's second quarter 2010 growth of 9% is unsustainable.
08/14/2010
The downside to the lower unemployment rate is the rapid growth in the low-wage sector in Germany. Consumer spemding is tight in Germany and the surge in exports cannot last. The contrast between the impact of German gorwth on the countries in Northern and Southern Europe.
Linked Articles
Germany Propels Growth in Euro Zone
Wall Street Journal 08/14/2010
German Workers' Wages Belie Country's ReboundWall Street Journal 08/17/2010
Expert opinion on the Financial Reform Bill of 2010.
07/16/2010
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/16/2010
Experts Grade the Financial LegislationWall Street Journal 07/16/2010
How America's need for low wage manufactured products is colliding with worker demands inside China.
06/03/2010
The beginnings of a Chinese workers movement for higher wages and better working conditions that has support within the universities, state run media and the government. The government sees the need to build up domestic consumption as austerity measures in western countries threaten the sustainability of the old export model; and sees higher worker wages make sense in this context.
Linked Articles
The Rise of a Chinese Worker's Movement
BusinessWeek 06/10/2010
Why Apple and Others Are Nervous About FoxconnBusinessWeek 06/03/2010
The European financial crisis of 2010 starting in Greece tests the social model of Euope.
05/14/2010
Officials see the need for more growth to support the social model and experts see the need for stronger action.
Linked Articles
Amid Europe's challenges, citizens face lifestyle shifts
Wall Street Journal 05/14/2010
Spain is simply shifting the problemWall Street Journal 05/14/2010
Shiller, Charles Scwab and other experts on the nervousness of the individual investor.
05/14/2010
Charles Schwab says about 98% of individual investos are nervous in mid 2010. He questios whether safety an soundess mean anything anymore. Shillers Buy on Dips Index confirms Schwab's observations.
Linked Articles
Chuck Schwab Is Worried About Small Investors. Should We Worry Too?
BusinessWeek 05/27/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause OneNew York Times 05/14/2010
Experts Roach, Grantham, Roubini and Shiller see serious risks of a double dip recession.
05/13/2010
Dangers of another bubble from zero interest rates which reward excessive risktaking, a blow to confidence levels from some sudden event, the eurozone crisis, and a fragile world economy that has not made the normal recovery, are cited
Linked Articles
Charlie Rose Talks to Nouriel Roubini
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market BubbleBusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Resignation of Japan's Hatoyama on the Okinawa issue and the Obama administration.
01/07/2010
Senior foreign policy expert Joseph Nye, Jr. called for patient approach to Japanese Premier Hatoyama on the Oknawa issue. This did not happen as Obama kept Hatoyama at arms-length and no compromise was reached. The implications of all this as the Democratic party is still only 8 months in office.
Linked Articles
Ties to U.S. Played Role in Downfall of Japanese Leader
New York Times 06/02/2010
An Alliance Larger Than One IssueNew York Times 01/07/2010
Shift to Social Democrats as German chancellor loses public support in Germany.
09/28/2009
The main reason the Social Democrats did poorly in the 2009 elections in Germany says an expert is because they driftd aay from their working class base with their economic reforms. Now there is a shift back to the Social Democrats and Greens under the Christian Democratic government of chancellor Merkel.
Linked Articles
Merkel Looks to Recharge Her Ratings
New York Times 07/21/2010
Germany's Long Road to ReformWall Street Journal 09/28/2009
The smaller stimulus and selective investments in 2012-2014 in China and how this affects construction and heavy equipment manufacturers
04/30/2009
The impact on Caterpillar, Volvo AB, Komatsu, John Deere, Cummins and domestic Chinese manufacturers of the smaller stimulus and selective investments in China in the years ahead. Manufacturers are exporting from China during this period of slowing sales in China.
Linked Articles
China Bets Sour for Heavy Equipment Firms
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2012
China's Stimulus Spurs U.S. BusinessWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
The risks to the Chinese economy of accumulated problems in the financial system
05/25/2011
A Wall Street Journal editorial that draws attention to the opaqueness of the financial system and its accummulated problems. It raises questions about how this will come out. Other expert observers have raised these questions.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/25/2011
Beijing's Financial Day of Reckoning Is NearWall Street Journal 06/21/2011
Pernambuco and other states in Brazil's northeastern region- lack of investment in public health, education and transportation services infrastructure
05/21/2011
During the boom years much of the investment, about three fourths of the growth rate of over 4%, came from infrastructure investments that supported exports of soyabeans, iron ore and other commodities to China. Under the Worker's party socialist governments that get much of their support from the northeast, this disguised the low investments in public infrastructure services for drinking water, health sanitation, public schools and transportation services. This is a problem in developing countries of Latin America, South Asia, and Africa, with some regions lagging behind in essential infrastructure services, even with high growth rates.
Linked Articles
The Brazilian Doctors Who Sounded the Alarm on Zika and Microcephaly
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2016
Brazil's north-east: Catching up in a hurryEconomist 05/21/2011
Angela Merkel's experience with the reunification of East and West Germany and her views of the eurozone crisis
01/30/2011
The perceptions of the eurozone crisis of ordinary Germans and of former East German Angela Merkel are colored by the period of reunification of the two Germany's. This was paid for with a"solidarity surcharge" tax paid by Germans amounting to $1.7 trillion and led in its early stages to 4 million unemployed in the eastern part and 20% unemployment. It took over a decade for East Germany to build new modernized industries in the larger cities of the east, but still leaves the rural parts of former East Germany in a neglected state as young peoplemoved out. During this period industry in the west also regained lost global competitiveness, especially in industries such as automobiles and advanced machinery, using wage restraint agreements with unions and increases in productivity. Germans see the need for eurozone countries in the southern part of Europe needing to make similiar sacrifices and see the tax evasion in Italy and Greece as unacceptable. The real estate bubble, the lack of transparency for banks bad loans, and out of control regional spending in Spain is also seen in a similiar light. Greece is seen as the most egregious offendor because of the bad financial accounting that grossly understated the extent of the bad loans. Less publicized in Germany is the role played in the bad loans through poor lending practices of German and French banks and that as experts have pointed out Germany was to some extent bailing out German banks when it was bailing out Greece- till German banks reduced their exposure to Greece in 2011.
Linked Articles
In former East Germany, anxious residents resent paying for Europe’s problems - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/21/2012
Merkel's Defense of Euro Forged in East GermanyNew York Times 01/30/2011
The Brady plan and the expert opinion of John Cochrane and others about the need to extend the maturities of the debt of Greece, Ireland, Portugal and other EU countries.
11/30/2010
Linked Articles
'Contagion' and Other Euro Myths
Wall Street Journal 12/02/2010
Nervous Europe Trying to Halt Economic CrisisNew York Times 11/30/2010
The threat posed by China's local government debt to China's banking and financial system
07/29/2010
Because of the opaqueness of the financial system the estimates of the local government debt varies from 27% to 42% of GDP. Prof Shih of Northwestern University, an expert on this subject, now estimates this to be $2.6 trillion or 42% of GDP. Other estimates from the National Audit Office put this at 27% and from China's central bank put this at 30%. Prof Shih's earlier estimate was 34%. Because of the large number of local government entities and the lack of transparency the figures may actually turn out to be higher as China's regulators and other analysts improve their estimates. The 42% estimate is $2.6 trillion in local government debt. China's large foreign exchange reserves of $3 trillion and low interest rates will give China some space for addressing the problem with another round of injection of capital into the banking system.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/28/2011
Where China Hides Its DebtBusinessWeek 07/29/2010
Winding down Fannie and Freddie -Volcker and other expert opinion (4)
06/19/2010
Linked Articles
Volckerâs Advice for More Financial Reform
New York Times 10/22/2011
Cost of Fannie And Freddie Keeps RisingNew York Times 06/19/2010
The plausible threat of deflation in 2011.
05/27/2010
Experts see deflation as a very real possibility in 2011 and beyond. This creates poor prospects for growth.
Linked Articles
New York Times 07/11/2010
The Recovery: Why Deflation Remains a ThreatBusinessWeek 05/27/2010
The increasing risk of a Double Dip Recession.
05/14/2010
Shiller, Wood and other experts on the risks.
Linked Articles
Don't Rule Out a Double Dip Recession
Wall Street Journal 05/24/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause OneNew York Times 05/14/2010
Experts like Shiller and Roubini about see dangers of a double dip recession.
05/13/2010
Prolonged period of zero interest rates that encourage excessive risktaking, and declining confidence levels with higher uncertainty, pose serious dangers.
Linked Articles
Charlie Rose Talks to Nouriel Roubini
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Fear of a Double Dip Could Cause OneNew York Times 05/14/2010
China's policy makers make moves to make the economy less dependent on exports.
01/07/2010
Since 2004 China's consumer spending has fallen behind even more from 40% to 35% as a share of the economy. Steps to reverse this by allowig wages to increase significantly as at this Honda facory in Foshan.
Linked Articles
Unrest May Signal New Phase in China Economy
New York Times 05/29/2010
China Aims to Transform a Nation of Savers Into SpendersWall Street Journal 01/07/2010
The declining value of the euro and China's export industry.
10/23/2009
This affects American exports to the Chinese market also making european goods more competitive.
Linked Articles
Europeâs Debt Crisis Is Casting a Shadow Over China
New York Times 05/17/2010
The Chinese DisconnectNew York Times 10/23/2009
With $5 trillion of new debt issue estimated in 2009-2010, the prospect of continued bailout of auto industry for years dims outlook for reversing this.
06/03/2009
Some experts point to the need for a 50% reduction in capacity in the auto industry from 2008. Demand may be lower than the 9.5 million vehicle year that the auto task force says is needed for GM to breakeven. This will mean continued government aid to the industry for a number of years.
Linked Articles
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World Growth
New York Times 06/04/2009
Kicking the Tires on the General Motors DealWashington Post 06/03/2009
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