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Dangers facing Turkey's economy with its dependence on foreign capital inflows and excessive growth in domestic credit for growth
10/04/2012
Foreign capital inflows that partly support the sharp growth in domestic credit could slow or reverse as happened in the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The IMF sees a credit to GDP ratio of over 5% as a warning light for developing economies. The IMF forecast is for this rato to be 7.28% for Turkey in 2103.
Linked Articles
No Ticker Tape Parade for Brazil's Currency Heroes
Wall Street Journal 06/06/2013
Syria Isn't Turkey's Only External WorryWall Street Journal 10/04/2012
What a difference a year makes for the government bonds of Italy and Spain
10/02/2012
ECB chief, Mario Draghi made the famous statement on July 23, 2012, that he would "do whatever it takes" to bring down the yields on the government bonds of Italy and Spain. These bond yields had reached 7.5%, worsening the debt position of the two countries. A year later in August 2013 the bond yields were down, the gap with German bond yields narrowed, and the first signs of recovery in the eurozone made investment in the bonds of Italy and Spain attractive. Emerging market debt faced the opposite of what they faced in July 2013, as the currencies of India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Turkey, Brazil and other developing countries depreciated significantly. As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its pull back from its monetary easing policy capital flows and foreign investment to to emerging markets reversed causing grief in countries which depended on these inflows to finance deficits in the current account.
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
Europe Bonds May Offer More ValueWall Street Journal 08/23/2013
New GASB, Moody's rules show a widening gap in the funding of public pensions in the U.S.
07/18/2012
The Volcker- Ravitch State Budget Crisis Task Force identified the problems facing U.S. states and cities which have poorly funded public pension funds. The problems are large and real as seen through the GASB rules, and the findings of the Volcker-Ravitch Task Force.
Linked Articles
New rules expose bigger funding gaps for public pensions - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/17/2012
Report Details Threats to States' Fiscal HealthWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
Ireland sees hope in the June 28, 2012 EU deal for direct aid from the European rescue fund to banks
06/29/2012
Ireland is the only country that took on all the debt of its banks during the eurozone financial crisis. This makes the June 28 deal a particularly helpful sign for Ireland to reduce its debt load.
Linked Articles
In Ireland, Hope of Retroactive Relief
Wall Street Journal 06/29/2012
European leaders agree to use bailout fund to help banks - The Washington PostWashington Post 06/29/2012
China's second Stimulus in 2012 following the one in 2008-2009, and World Bank chief Zoellick's advice for a different policy mix
05/30/2012
A more measured response this time from the Development Reform Commission (DRC) and the State Council. Targeted spending on select and strategic projects to avoid inflating the housing bubble any further, and screening out projects with dubious merit.
Linked Articles
In China, a New Round of Stimulus
New York Times 05/30/2012
World Bank Chief Urges Euro BondsWall Street Journal 05/31/2012
The focus on reviving the economy of Mohammed Morsi, new president of Egypt
05/25/2012
Egypt faces an economic crisis as it runs out of foreign reserves to finance basic imports. Morsi's election comes at a time when the dominant issues for years in Egypt will shift from the political to the economic as it tries to catch up with other countries in the developing world in Asia and Latin America that have made significant progress.
Linked Articles
Egypt’s president is U.S. critic, but could be an ally - The Washington Post
Washington Post 06/26/2012
Muslim Brotherhood claims lead for its candidate in Egypt’s presidential election - The Washington PostWashington Post 05/25/2012
The $436 million payment by Greece to holdout bondholder Dart Management and the $1.5 billion demanded by holdout bondholder Elliott Management leading to Argentine default in 2014
05/15/2012
Greece made the payment to Dart Management at a time of 20% unemployment and daily protests on Athens streets, a month before elections in June 2012. Greece only did this as a last resort for release of EU funds that were being held up to make pament of interest on debt. This exacerabated discontent inside Greece as pensions were being cut and layoffs taking place, including increase in electricity bills. The Syriza party made gains in that election and the two main parties lost ground to other parties, including a violent anti-immigrant party. Argentina's Christina Kirchner faces a difficult time with the unions and centrist parties in Buenos Aires province, with a shortage of cash and sovereign wealth fund down to $29 billion in May 2014. Stevenson points out the payment to Elliott Management could lead to a situation where Argentina owed $15-$27 billion to all holdout and exchange investors in its bonds.
Linked Articles
Argentina Finds Relentless Foe in Paul Singer's Hedge Fund
New York Times 07/30/2014
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture FundNew York Times 05/15/2012
Problems India faces in increasing power growth as its national power grid fails in 2012
04/19/2012
Problems include shortage of funds to finance imports of coal and energy and the failure to increase production at Coal India.
Linked Articles
India Mulls $10 Billion for Fund on Energy
Wall Street Journal 04/25/2012
India Struggles to Dig Up Enough Fuel to Power GrowthNew York Times 04/19/2012
Malaysia and increased foreign investment after the floods in Thailand disrupts supply chains
03/14/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/18/2012
China's Wage Hikes Ripple Across AsiaWall Street Journal 03/14/2012
China's Stimulus plan in 2012-2013 and the problem of "uncoordinated, unbalanced and unsustainable development"
03/06/2012
China's premier Wen Biao told the National People's Congress, China's parliament, in March 2012, that it was urgent to tackel the "problem of uncoordinated, unbalanced, and unsustainable development." He called for "an acceleration of the transformation" of the economic model towards consumption and away from exports and infrastructure spending. The accelerated approval of 254 investment projects in May 2012 puts off this task of rebalancing development for China and the world economy. With slowing growth in China and the last Stimulus of 2008 having propelled the housing bubble, the options were limited. A decrease in the reserve requirement by 0.5% in 2012 for China's banks was not expected to spur growth because lending was not expected to increase, as the demand for loans is low. A sharp falloff in growth below 7% was feared leading to the acceleration in investment.
Linked Articles
China’s stimulus policy means trouble down the road - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/31/2012
China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'Wall Street Journal 03/06/2012
The problems of lack of balanced development, higher inequality, and slowing growth under current economic policy in China
02/23/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 10/03/2012
New Push for Reform in ChinaWall Street Journal 02/23/2012
The views of Condoleeza Rice and Vladimir Putin on Russia's evolution through democratic processes
02/09/2012
Rice points out that diversification of the economy away from oil utilizing Russian technological capabilities will help Russia move away from the corruption of a resource based economy and build a healthy democratic setup. Putin says he recognizes the need for democratic processes to keep pace with the development of civil society and the growing middle class, but emphasizes that democracy cannot be built overnight, and places a higher priority on what he calls the "sovereignty of the people," the right to work, the right to education and free medical care.
Linked Articles
How Russia’s urban middle class can bring an end to Putinism - The Washington Post
Washington Post 03/09/2012
Vladimir Putin: My vision for a better Russia - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/09/2012
A smaller Wall Street in New York as the culture shifts towards emphasis on technology and other fields.
12/27/2011
The culture at Goldman Sachs and on Wall Street and the growing feeling that a shift to growth in other fields is a healthy development for New York and the U.S.
Linked Articles
Public Rebuke of Culture at Goldman Sachs
New York Times 03/14/2012
Wall Street Meets RealityNew York Times 12/27/2011
ECB president Mario Draghi and the pragmatic and activist approach developed at the MIT Economics department
10/02/2012
Linked Articles
How ECB Chief Outflanked German Foe in Fight for Euro
Wall Street Journal 10/02/2012
MIT Forged Activist Views of Central Bank Role and Cinched Central Bankers' TiesWall Street Journal 12/12/2012
The view that with P5+1 talks with Iran ending in no agreement, the crisis with Iran is reaching a critical stage in August 2012
08/06/2012
Israeli views on the continued development of nuclear weapons capabilities by Iran in the face of tightened sanctions and diplomatic efforts. Oren and Yadlin see this has having reached a critical stage before military action.
Linked Articles
Get ready to fight Iran - The Washington Post
Washington Post 08/18/2012
Time Is Short For Iran DiplomacyWall Street Journal 08/06/2012
Spain macroprudential supervision of its banking system once lauded now turns out to be "timid" and false, could the same be true for China?
07/18/2012
Spain's central bank had a reputation of providing good supervision for Spain's banking system. The problems at the Cajas Savings banks and the current assessment after the request for $125 billion in EU funds for Spain's banks shows how this turned out to be false. Does China face a similiar problem with its housing bubble. The U.S., UK and Spain, failed to control and manage the effects of a housing bubble, can China be a lone exception? Rapid growth enabled China to cope with bad loans in the banking system, with slower growth, a weak European market for exports, and a stimulus that is about one eighth the size in annual investment- one trillion yuan over 4 years in the current stimulus compared to 4 trillion over 2009-2010 in the last stimulus plan. Can China manage this bubble, does it have the experience managing this type of problem or has it papered over the problems as Spain did? This has repercussions for industries and countries from the export sector in Germany, Australia and Brazil to industries such as the German automobile industry, and companies such as Caterpillar.
Linked Articles
As China’s economy slows, real estate bubble looms - The Washington Post
Washington Post 10/03/2012
Spanish Official: Slow Reaction to CrisisWall Street Journal 07/18/2012
Accelerated development of nuclear energy in India and China in 2013-2020
06/06/2012
Over tenfold increase in nuclear energy capacity planned in India and fivefold in China by 2020. Safety practices being put in place after the Fukushima nuclear disaster, energy shortages in India, and excessive coal generated pollution in China, give a new perception of the importance of nuclear energy in the energy mix for the two countries.
Linked Articles
India Starts Nuclear Reactor After Lengthy Delays
Wall Street Journal 10/23/2013
China Nuclear Firm Plans Up to $27 Billion IPOWall Street Journal 06/06/2012
Obama and election advisor Plouffe- responsible governance, Simpson-Bowles and an election imprint on "everything"
05/26/2012
A White House aide says election advisor David Plouffe's influence affected "everything" in the Obama White House. Tom Friedman points to the influence of campaign consultants on the White House as overreaching and pervasive, going so far a to describe the campaign being developed in test tube fashion. Karl Rove pointed to president Obama keeping an eye on reelection 18 months before Nov. 6, 2012, as not a positive development. Friedman specifically mentions president Obama's failure to endorse the Simpson-Bowles commssion on deficit reductions as part of the imprint of election advisors because reducing tax expenditures or deductions might prove politically unpopular. Yet this was part of responsible governance to take on unpopular positions- something other presidents, including Democratic president Truman, did not fail to do choosing instead to educate pubic opiion on difficult steps needing to be taken. Truman took the decisions head on such as confronting the soviets in Greece and other parts of Europe and in Korea after the fall of the Iron Curtain, so soon after a major war when the public was weary of conflict.
Linked Articles
Obama Adviser's Strategy Is High Risk, High Reward
Wall Street Journal 10/31/2012
President Obama Should Seize the High GroundNew York Times 05/26/2012
Alexei Kudrin and other experts see the potential for a deep economic and political crisis in Russia as the situation in the eurozone worsens
05/23/2012
The Center for Strategic Studies in Moscow was prescient in predicitng political dissatisfaction before parliamentary elections. The former finance minister, Alexei Kudrin, anticipated the 2008 global financial crisis and set aside reserves in the sovereign wealth fund to cope with the crisis. Both now see the potential for a worsening economic and political situation in Russia as Greece nears exit from the eurozone and the banking crisis in Europe leads to reduced loans to Russia. At the same time the political polarization in Russia between pro and anti Putin factions creates other tensions.
Linked Articles
Report Says Support for Putin Is Dropping
Wall Street Journal 05/23/2012
Russian Recession Could Prompt Political Woes, Report SaysNew York Times 05/24/2012
De Anza College in Cupertino, California where a Apple co-founder got his start and the implications of tax avoidance strategies
04/28/2012
A U.S. Senate Report in May 2013 points to tax avoidance strategies by Apple, and Apple CEO Tim Cook appears before a Senate hearing. EU leaders meet in Brussels to address the problems of tax avoidance by digital companies which aggravate the budget deficits of EU countries, especially at a time of cutbacks in infrastructure spending and education that supports the digital companies access to to human resources. De Anza College in Cupertino is where on of the Apple cofounders went to school. The head of the college describes the effects of cutbacks in funding on the college. On the other side of the Atlantic Fredrik Reinfeldt, Sweden's prime minister makes a similiar case saying the digital companies need access to infrastructure and educational centres which makes the payment of taxes used to fund this necessary for the whole system not to fall into dysfunction.
Linked Articles
Apple's Tax Strategy Aims at Low-Tax States and Nations
New York Times 04/28/2012
Europe Tackles Tax EvasionWall Street Journal 05/22/2013
The absence of solutions to the underlying problem of increasing U.S. health care costs in fiscal cliff deficit negotiations
04/03/2012
Without a new approach to increasing health care costs, especially considering the demographic changes in the U.S. with more people on Medicare in future years, the problems of defunding other areas such as education, R&D, and infrastructure, to fund these increases is likely to continue. Estimates show that the 50 million Americans enrolled in Medicare in 2012 will grow to 80 million by 2030, according to the Medicare program actuaries. Demographic changes as the baby boom generation ages mean more Americans relying on Medicare and Medicaid. With continually increasing health care costs from costly technologies, increasing of diabetes, asthma and other diseases, pricing in the medical industry, and some fraud costs, this is a toxic mix that will lead to to a situation where one of three dollars in spending get swallowed up here.
Linked Articles
Beneath Budget Battle, a Health-Spending Juggernaut
Wall Street Journal 12/17/2012
What to Do on the Day After ObamaCareWall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Uncertain future for Australia's mining and commodities powered boom in 2012-2014
03/06/2012
The shift in China's economy towards consumption led growth from infrastructure development led growth is likely to affect mining commodity producing economies such as Australia, Brazil and Chile. The rapid appreciation of the Australian dollar and the real is also affecting the competitiveness of manufacturing in these countries.
Linked Articles
Australia Budget Turns Boom on Its Head
Wall Street Journal 05/09/2012
China Speeds Economic 'Transformation'Wall Street Journal 03/06/2012
World Bank chief Zoellick on China's 2012-2013 Stimulus plan and the China Development Report of the World Bank/ DRC
02/23/2012
Zoellick calls for an approach from China that avoids the mistakes of the rampant credit expansion and investment of the 2008 Stimulus.
Linked Articles
World Bank Chief Urges Euro Bonds
Wall Street Journal 05/31/2012
New Push for Reform in ChinaWall Street Journal 02/23/2012
Zhou Xiaochuan, head of the People's Bank of China, China's central bank, and the Development Research Center (DRC) think tank
02/23/2012
The road map and priorities of the DRC and the PBOC are now the road map and priorities of the Jinping-Keqiang administration A sense of deepening awareness takes hold on party leaders Jinping and Li Keqiang that the current trajectory of Debt to GDP ratios could lead to the kind of situation before the banking crisis in Japan and S. Korea. The importance of striking a balance with growth of private companies to support future growth and move away from reliance on state owned enterprises is part of the change supported by DRC and PBOC.
Linked Articles
China's Central Banker Leads Push to Overhaul Economy
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
New Push for Reform in ChinaWall Street Journal 02/23/2012
The impact of large fuel subsidies on infrastructure development and economic growth - Venezuela and Nigeria in 2012-2014
01/03/2012
Linked Articles
Almost-Free Gas Comes at a High Cost
Wall Street Journal 04/12/2013
Nigeria Braces for Gas-Price ProtestsWall Street Journal 01/03/2012
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