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The $436 million payment by Greece to holdout bondholder Dart Management and the $1.5 billion demanded by holdout bondholder Elliott Management leading to Argentine default in 2014
05/15/2012
Greece made the payment to Dart Management at a time of 20% unemployment and daily protests on Athens streets, a month before elections in June 2012. Greece only did this as a last resort for release of EU funds that were being held up to make pament of interest on debt. This exacerabated discontent inside Greece as pensions were being cut and layoffs taking place, including increase in electricity bills. The Syriza party made gains in that election and the two main parties lost ground to other parties, including a violent anti-immigrant party. Argentina's Christina Kirchner faces a difficult time with the unions and centrist parties in Buenos Aires province, with a shortage of cash and sovereign wealth fund down to $29 billion in May 2014. Stevenson points out the payment to Elliott Management could lead to a situation where Argentina owed $15-$27 billion to all holdout and exchange investors in its bonds.
Linked Articles
Argentina Finds Relentless Foe in Paul Singer's Hedge Fund
New York Times 07/30/2014
Bet on Greek Bonds Paid Off for a Vulture FundNew York Times 05/15/2012
The looming energy crisis in India in 2012-2013
04/19/2012
Shortages of coal and energy supplies place a constraint on India's growth.
Linked Articles
India Mulls $10 Billion for Fund on Energy
Wall Street Journal 04/25/2012
India Struggles to Dig Up Enough Fuel to Power GrowthNew York Times 04/19/2012
How a law from the 1980's requiring use of jute bags for storage creates problems for food storage in India (1)
04/13/2012
Linked Articles
India's Grain Storage Comes Up Short
Wall Street Journal 04/13/2012
Indian Fiber Weaves a CrisisWall Street Journal 06/23/2012
Greece's long delayed bond swap with European banks of March 9, 2012
03/09/2012
The bond swap of new bonds with long maturities reflecting a writedown of 53.5% for the old bonds with short maturities was finally achieved on March 9, 2012. By this time Greece's economy was shrinking badly and the new bonds were trading at levels that reflected the need for further writedowns only days after the deal. Prof. Cochrane at the University of Chicago and Prof. John Taylor at Stanford say French and German banks exaggerated the effects of contagion from the beginning to delay writedowns for as long as possible. The effects on the eurozone of the delays in tackling the problem early and decisively are negative or slowing growth and is likely to hurt the banks operating in that environment, raising questions about the wisdom of that strategy.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/09/2012
Greece Passes Key Debt TestWall Street Journal 03/09/2012
Exit from the Eurozone and return to the drachma as the most likely and best outcome for Greece after April 2012 elections
02/22/2012
John Taylor and the Ifo Institue's Sinn say the recapitalization of Greece's banks and the lower interest rates negotiated after the March 2012 bailout make exiting the euro and achieving economic growth doable. The Papdemos government's need for time till 2015 to complete the program of changes, and the elections in April 2012 in which opposition parties outpolled Pasok and New Democrachy lays the political groundwork for the exit.
Linked Articles
Greece at new risk of being pushed off euro - The Washington Post
Washington Post 05/08/2012
A Better Grecian BailoutWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Greece and EU in 2015- (6) What went wrong? What errors were made by the IMF and Germany 2010-2012?
02/22/2012
Linked Articles
Policy âTroikaâ for Europe Financial Woes at Odds
New York Times 06/07/2013
The Tragic Greek SideshowWall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Greece and EU in 2015- (4) How are the structural issues such as tax evasion in Greece being tackled, after Monti's effort to tackle this in Italy in 2012?
02/18/2012
Surprisingly the Syriza government in 6 months in office did not come up with a plan to implement for tax evasion. This was a major issue for the IMF and in Greece's interest, even though it was going contrary to long standing practice in Greece as it was in Italy. Estimates of lost revenue are about $11 billion each year for tax evasion. By comparison the IMF payment due was less than $2 billion on June 30, 2015. Sustainable long term finances make this a major issue in Greece's own interest. Greece has an aging population and the number of retirees are growing in relation to young working people making this an important issue for stable finances under any administration, and regardless of the euro.
Linked Articles
How Greek tax evasion sunk the global economy
Washington Post 07/10/2012
A Hollow Target for Greek DebtWall Street Journal 02/18/2012
The Indian government's plan to bring the deficit down over 5 years to 3% in 2017
02/14/2012
In response to the policy of the Reseve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, to hold off on interest rate changes till the government takes action in reducing the deficit, the Indian government lays out a plan to bring the deficit down to 3% by 2017, and 5.3% in the fiscal year ending March 2013. The government is under pressure to come up with an economic strategy to deal with the slowing economy with growth forecasts lowered to 5-6.5% for 2012. The risk of India's credit rating being being lowered to junk status and drastic slowdown in foreign investment is creating a crisis atmosphere after a period of indecison.
Linked Articles
India Lays Out Deficit Targets
Wall Street Journal 10/30/2012
Indian Central Banker Hits His Government's SpendingWall Street Journal 02/14/2012
The likelihood of greater public contribution towards Greece's debt and changes to the IMF program after May 2012 elections in Greece and France
02/13/2012
France's Socialist presidential candidate Hollande considers the EU-IMF programs a failure of governance in Europe. He predicts larger public contributions to Greece's debt after the elections in Greece and France.
Linked Articles
Watch Athens, Not Paris, This Weekend
Wall Street Journal 05/04/2012
French Candidate Hollande Assails European Policy on GreeceNew York Times 02/13/2012
Natural gas as the dominant source of new power generation capacity in 2012-2035 (1)
12/12/2011
Energy Information Administration forecast for 2010-2035 shows 58% of new additions of power generation capacity coming from natural gas. The new availability of shale gas is leading to a surge in use of natural gas. Only 4.3% will be nuclear, dampening the development of nuclear energy. Renewables will be 29%. This is a major development in how America looks at energy.
Linked Articles
Cheap Natural Gas Unplugs U.S. Nuclear-Power Revival
Wall Street Journal 03/15/2012
America's New Energy SecurityWall Street Journal 12/12/2011
The situation in Athens, Greece, in Dec. 2011, with the German insistence on strict austerity measures
11/27/2011
The likelihood that Greeks would vote against austerity measures as a condition for staying in the euro, if a referendum were held as proposed.
Linked Articles
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property Tax
New York Times 11/27/2011
The Spirit of EnterpriseNew York Times 12/01/2011
Tax evasion in Italy and Greece and Germany's insistence on good governance and financial practices for a sound euro currency
11/25/2011
One estimate of tax evasion in Italy cited by Faiola in the Post is $340 billon a year. Greece has a similiar problem. This is one area in which the culture and practices of individual countries have to converge to acceptable norms to make a common currrency viable, something the founders of the euro currency did not take as seriously as needed and account for in a disciplined framework. The political enthusiasm for a union of European countries of EU founders led to ignoring the dangers of not having controls and convergence in place.
Linked Articles
New York Times 12/01/2011
Amid crisis, Italy confronts a culture of tax evasion - The Washington PostWashington Post 11/25/2011
The large current account deficit, slowing capital inflows and foreign investment, and the depreciation of the Indian Rupee
11/25/2011
Linked Articles
Rupee Plunges to an All-Time Low
Wall Street Journal 06/22/2012
With Economy Slowing, the Indian Rupee TumblesNew York Times 11/25/2011
Greece, Europe and the Austerity measures- "a swimmer underwater who needs to be able to take a breath" (1)
05/03/2012
Austerity measures alone cannot address the financial problems in the eurozone countries of Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy. The need to create opportunities for economic growth.
Linked Articles
Election Heralds Power Shift in Alliance With Germany
Wall Street Journal 05/03/2012
France Reassures Greece on Euro Zone MembershipNew York Times 08/25/2012
Problems India faces in increasing power growth as its national power grid fails in 2012
04/19/2012
Problems include shortage of funds to finance imports of coal and energy and the failure to increase production at Coal India.
Linked Articles
India Mulls $10 Billion for Fund on Energy
Wall Street Journal 04/25/2012
India Struggles to Dig Up Enough Fuel to Power GrowthNew York Times 04/19/2012
India's import bill for energy supplies and its problem with a rising current account deficit
04/11/2012
A sense that India has not managed globalization as well as it should have, is the view expressed by India's central bank governor, Devi Subbarao, at a IMF discussion with Charlie Rose and central bank governors from Mexico and Sweden, Lagarde and and Christina Romer on April 20, 2012 at IMF headquarters. One facet of this is the rising current account deficit, declining foreign investment, and shortages of coal and other energy supplies.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2012
India Grapples With Soaring Energy CostsWall Street Journal 04/11/2012
The risks facing Spain in 2012 with austerity measures when unemployment is at 23%
03/06/2012
Finance Minister Luis de Guindos sees Spain loosing either way with spending cuts that worsen high unemployment and lower economic growth leading to a worsening debt to GDP ratio in 2012, and this situation in turn raising its borrowing costs on $86 billion in debt issuance for 2012. He estimates the debt to GDP ratio will increase under the 2012 budget of 27 billion euros in cuts and an economy shrinking by 1.7% in 2012, by 10% from 2011 to 78%. Markets are focussing on debt in Portugal and Spain in 2012, after focussing on Greece and Italy in 2011.
Linked Articles
Spain Faces Risks in Budget Refit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2012
Spain Struggles to Unite Regional Leaders on CutsNew York Times 03/06/2012
Greece, Europe and the Austerity measures- insights from Taylor and Krugman (3)
02/22/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/22/2012
Those Revolting EuropeansNew York Times 05/06/2012
Failure to tackle tax evasion in Greece estimated at one third of the deficit for 2009
02/19/2012
The implementation of austerity measures in Greece including cuts to the minimum wage hit people with lower wages the hardest. This takes place even as Greece fails to tackle tax evasion by higher income groups such as doctors and engineers. This is estimated by a group of economists who looked at Greek bank records at 11.2 billion euros in 2009.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/09/2012
Greek leaders’ priorities questioned - The Washington PostWashington Post 02/19/2012
John Taylor and Ifo Institute's Sinn say the best option for Greece to make economic recovery is to exit the eurozone
02/17/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/22/2012
INTERVIEW: Ifo's Sinn: In Greece's Interest To Leave Euro ZoneWall Street Journal 02/17/2012
Greece's Path Back (9)- What went wrong
02/14/2012
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 02/14/2012
How Greek tax evasion sunk the global economyWashington Post 07/10/2012
IKEA's approach to the markets in India and China
01/24/2012
IKEA has remained cautious of the Indian market whereas it has moved aggressively into China.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 03/20/2012
IKEA Remains Wary of Entering IndiaWall Street Journal 01/24/2012
Expert opinion on the problem with German insistence on tough austerity measures in Greece, Italy and Spain and Portugal
11/28/2011
Without economic growth the problems of debt reduction become more difficult to tackle. Austerity measures may lead to shrinking economies in these countries creating larger deficits.
Linked Articles
New York Times 11/28/2011
Europe's Currency Road to NowhereWall Street Journal 11/29/2011
Greece's Path Back (7) - Faces of the pain in Greece: Nikkos Solomos 60, Ioannis Chatzis 86
11/27/2011
Linked Articles
Greece’s prescription for a health-care crisis - The Washington Post
Washington Post 02/22/2014
Greeks Balk at Paying New Property TaxNew York Times 11/27/2011
Slowing growth, high inflation and lack of foreign investment limit India's growth potential in 2012-2013
11/25/2011
A combination of higher inflation, muddled political leadership that is limiting foreign investment in retail and other sectors, and high energy costs is limiting economic growth in India to annual GDP growth of 7% in 2012-2013
Linked Articles
Stress on Economy Prompts India to Revive Controversial Plans
Wall Street Journal 12/01/2011
With Economy Slowing, the Indian Rupee TumblesNew York Times 11/25/2011
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