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Simon Nixon points out that most of the 490 billion in euros borrowed by European banks under the Long Term Refinancing Operation of the ECB in Dec. 2011 is for rolling over maturing debt, rather than buying of government bonds. European banks financing needs based on figures from Barclay's Capital are over 300 billion euros for the 1st quarter of 2012. This suggests huge demand for the Long Term Financing Operation in the next quarter. For Spain and Italy the newly created lending facility should lead to higher bond buying by small and midsized Spanish banks and Italian banks, as this will boost their profitability. Spanish bonds yield 5% and Italian bonds yield 6.5% and loans from the ECB using the bonds as collateral are available at 1% for three years, which makes this an opportunity for these banks to boost profitability. The proportion of government bonds of Spain of Spanish banks bank assets is 7% and the figure for Italian banks is 9%. Nixon says an increase of this ratio by three percentage points by Spanish banks would created additional demand for Spanish government bonds of 45 billion euros, which is a third of the issuance for 2012....

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A general strike is planned in Catalonia, Spain to protest police action preventing a referendum vote on independence called by Mr. Puigdemont, head of the state government. The government in Madrid sees the vote as illegal and could take away the regional government's powers under Article 155 of the Constitution. There are varying reports on how many people voted, with this BBC report saying that Mr. Puigdemont's estimate of 90% of people having voted is inaccurate. BBC News says turnout was relatively low at 42%, weakening Mr. Puigdemont's position. Talks are now taking place with Pedro Sanchez of the opposition Socialist party and Albert Rivera of the centrist Ciudadanos party. Mr. Puigdemont now calls for talks with the Spanish government, and mediation by the EU. The European Commission calls this an "internal matter" for Spain, that should be tackled using the Constitution. Other regions of Spain including Galicia where prime minister Rajoy comes from also suffered under the Franco dictatorship following the Civil War, including his family so that Mr. Rajoy does not represent Madrid so much as the new aspirations of the different regions in Spain to try to write a new chapter in Spanish politics. That chapter shown in a book by Mr. Rajoy on Spain's future clearly shows respect for autonomous regions as the direction for Spain. In Valencia and Catalonia one finds the regional languages used and this is respected under the Constitution. Yet the period under General Franco rankles many in Spain, more so in Catalonia and the Basque region, when the regional language could not be used. As in Scotland smaller parties that were not in government for decades now enjoy more support. Yet it is not clear that all the people of these regions want to permanently break the links with Spain or England under separatist parties that have only recently come to power. This is why the European Union is reticent on this issue.  ...

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This editorial in The Guardian points out that only a tiny fraction of the British people, merely 160,000 members of the Tory Conservative party are for the last 2 months in July and August 2022 determining what kind of government Britain should have at a time of cost of living crisis. Most of these 160,000 are male, upper class, older and propertied. No government action is taking place to protect people from cost increases. In France the energy price increase is limited to 4% by the government, Spain is doing the same to limit cost increases. And in Britain Ofgem regulator has allowed the price cap for energy to triple relative to a year ago and no minister there available to answer the public's questions, kind of surreal.

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The Spanish Supreme Court verdict giving jail sentences to 11 Catalan leaders for the part they played in pushing for independence of the Catalan region in 2017, has resulted in clashes of protesters with police. The socialist government of Pedro Sanchez faces elections on November 10, 2019.  The government faces the option of activating Article 155 of the Constitution suspending the state government for central rule from Madrid.  One of the problems Spain now faces is that there is no clear majority for independence with the region divided between people who prefer to remain in a united Spain and people who prefer Catalan independence. In a recent BBC Hardtalk this was brought up in questions put to the Catalan independent movement spokesperson. The support for independence has actually declined in recent years. The Guardian cites a Catalan government poll in July showing 48% of Catalans oppose independence and 44% support it. Independence is not supported by the EU and it is not clear whether Catalan economy would do better outside Spain, as some of the causes of the economic problems stem from the banking and housing crisis in Spain and overborrowing. Mr Sanchez on the Madrid side and the Republican Left on the Catalan side favor negotiations on economic issues raised by Catalan people. As a result there may be less support than previously for outright independence, particularly when it is realized that the economic issues come from mismanagement and corruption and that the new Spanish constitution was designed to give regions special rights after the Franco years.  ...

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The Truss government UK budget in September 2022 does little for the most vulnerable populations in the cost of living crisis. It also fail to take any significant steps to build up energy supplies. Of all the governments in the G-7 countries France, Germany, Italy, Canada, it is the weakest when it comes to promoting social cohesion or taking action to promote both energy supplies and renewable energy for the transition during climate change. Spain has just introduced a wealth tax for the 1%. Nothing like this is seen here, instead the highest tax of 45% is scrapped at a time when the wealthiest are seen by most people in all the G-7 countries as the most able and even willing today after the pandemic to provide help to the vulnerable and weakest parts of the population. It is seen as delusional by some as it does not inspire much confidence in the financial markets and many in the Conservative party itself. It fails the test even Mr. Boris Johnson set himself of leveling up in Britain between the well off and the less well off in society which led to his election and the election of the Truss government with Johnsopn's support. ...

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Raphael Minder points out one episode in the life of Emilio Botin that shows how intertwined Spain and Santander had become. During the period when Spain took EU help after the collapse of Bankia bank in 2012 there was pressure on Spain to take a full government bailout. Finance minister Guindos says it was Botin who called him at that time and told him: "You know what you have to do and I will back you up." Botin's advice to the Spanish government was to resist the pressure. Botin expanded what was a family bank based in Santander in Northern Spain, through a series of successful acquisitions. He had a rare intuitive sense for timing of acquisitions, going into Brazil around the time candidate Lula of the Workers Party was elected president, with considerable uncertainty about how financial markets would respond to the election. About a quarter of the bank's profit now comes from Brazil. Besides Brazil Santander has commercial banking presence in Britain and the U.S., taking a bank that had 20 billion euros in assets in 1998 to 1.1 trillion euros by 2013, which is about the value of Spain's GDP....

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Labour's executive director of Policy from 2020 to 2022, says steps easy to understand and grasp, and which can be effectively implemented to deliver are needed for Labour party to win confidence of the British people. Claire Ainsley says Australia is doing this under Mr. Albanese. Mr. Scholz is doing this in Germany. "Keir Starmer's embrace of a mission driven approach to government provides opportunity to tackle the root causes of stagnating wages and volatile costs." "Whether this tentative revival can be turned into durable majorities will rest on whether we can deliver on the change that people are crying out for. If voters give the centre left a chance to be in government again, then the changes Labour instigates must make a difference in people's lives." She says centre left governments in the US, Germany, Australia offer a role model of how action can be taken to improve the lives of workers and families. Other centre left governments in Canada, Spain, are striving to do this also. To make simple to understand and quantify pledges to the people and deliver on them step by concrete step. A similar approach is taken in India and in states in India. Germany is an example. Ainsley says Germany made 4 simple pledges to back its bigger visions. Solid delivery on wages, pensions cost of living support, energy, and public services. ...

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The IMF report on Italy in July 2012 says Italy faces another year of recession. Debt as a percentage of GDP is expected to reach 126% in 2013. One bright spot is that Italy is expected to post a primary surplus by 2013- that is government revenues will cover promised services, excluding interest payments on oustanding bonds of $2 trillion. Because of the recession small shocks could change the outlook says the IMF, and it emphasized the importance of the changes being made to the labor market and for improving competitiveness. These changes need to be implemented early because of elections expected in spring 2013. A key concern is borrowing rates which are near 7% for Italy and Spain. The European Stability Mechanism, the rescue fund, was authorized to make purchases of Italian and Spanish bonds in the June 2012 summit. The ESM becomes operational in the summer of 2012, after the German Constitutional Court makes its ruling about it being legal and after ratification by national governments....

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Pedro Sanchez is attempting to form a new government in Spain with the support of Catalan parties. His Socialist party voted with 87% in favor of forming a new government with smaller parties without using the word amnesty for Catalans who protested in 2017 for independence. PSOE's organizational secretary Santos Leon says the party is determined to not let the opposition Partido Popular weaken the welfare state at a time of cost of living crisis and following the pandemic by coming to power at the federal level. In 2023 only 42% of Catalans want independence, 52% actually oppose it, making it easier to let Pedro Sanchez put this episode in Spanish history behind.

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The Cajas, local savings banks, are a symbol of the excesses and lack of financial controls of the bubble years in Spain. The local savings banks were run by authoritarian leaders who remained in office for many years, and were influential in the political system. The Cajas expanded into real estate during the real estate bubble, and many of the cajas had to be merged by the federal government under new management after the bursting of the bubble. Minder describes the culture at Cajas banks in Galicia, the region in the northwest of Spain that is the home region of prime minister Mariano Rajoy. Julio Fernandez Gayoso, or known as Don Julio in the old baronial manner, was one such bank executive who ran the the larges cajas bank in Galicia as his own fiefdom till he was 80, and only quit when forced to resign in an investigation.

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Stress test performed by the consulting firms of Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger used data as of Dec 31, 2011, and a scenario of a 6.5% decline in GDP and a 26.4% fall in housing prices by 2014. An international panel of experts from the Bank of Spain, the Spanish government, the ECB, the IMF, the European Banking Authority and the EC was formed to oversee the consultancies report. A separate more detailed audit of 14 individual banks will be made by Deloitte Touche, Pricewaterhouse Coopers, Ernst & Young, and KPMG International with results by the end of July. The four banks that need capital injections are Bankia, CatalunyaCaixa, NovaCaixaGalicia and Banco de Valencia. The consultancies estimate was for 51-62 billion euros needed according to Oliver Wyman, and 51.8 billion euros needed according to Roland Berger, for recapitalization of Spanish banks by 2014. The issue now is about any remaining questions about additional losses, and whether rescue funds from the EU fund the EFSF should go directly to the banks as favored by the IMF and the government of Spain. This is because of the stress on yields of Spain's 10 year bonds with rescue money going to the Spanish government at the insistence of German chancellor Merkel....

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Except in Britain where there is concern about the government's handing of the crisis in nursing homes most European leaders have improved their standing with voters with their coronavirus response. Public confidence has increased for Germany's Merkel, Italy's Conte, France's Macron, and Spain's Sanchez. France's Macron enjoys a personal popularity rating of 44% and satisfaction with his government's response has increased to 42%, after a decline in mid-April when there was a jump in cases. In Italy satisfaction with the government response is at 66%, and Conte remains popular. Mr. Sanchez's response to the coronavirus crisis in Spain is approved by 46% of voters. Most European leaders have shown unity and composure in the crisis, strengthening the community spirit in the European Union.

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An audit of Spain's banking system by the consulting firm Oliver Wyman, shows that Spanish banks would need 53.745 billion euros to be cleaned up if mergers and acquisitions underway are completed.The amount goes up to 59.3 billion euros if this does not happen. Bankia bank will need 24.7 billion euros to meet capital requirements. Three other nationalized banks need 21.5 billion euros, including 3.2 billion euros for Banco Popular. Of the 14 audited banks only 7 need capital infusions. The other banks considered healthy include BBVA, Santander and La Caixa. These findings are similiar to a preliminary finding by Oliver Wyman and estimates provided by Luis de Guindos, Spain's economy minister, that Spanish banks will need 51 billion to 62 billion euros of capital infusion. Spain's secretary of state for the economy, Fernando Jimenez Latorre, says Spain will soon request about 40 billion euros of the 100 billion euro bailout offer for banks negotiated by Spain in June with the EU. It is not clear whether the capital infusion will go directly to Spain's banks as Spain has argued, or go through the Spanish government. The audits were important to provide credibility through independent assessment of losses in Spain's banking system, and remove the fog of uncertainty that is pushing up Spain's borrowing rate in capital markets....

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Efforts by Spain's government of prime minister Rajoy to come up with credible estimates about the actual needs for recapitalization of troubled parts of the banking system, and which banks should be closed. Report out in June by consulting firms Oliver Wyman and Roland Berger relies on information from the Bank of Spain. A detailed audit examining the books of the 14 largest banks in Spain will be completed by audit firms by the end of July 2012. Considerable criticism in banking circles in Barcelona and London about the procrastination by Spanish banking authorites in coming up with credible estimates of the actual bad loans and losses in the Spanish banking system. This would improve confidence in financial markets that the problems can be controlled and a way forward planned.

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After failing to come to an agreement for early elections with the central government in Madrid, Catalan leader Puigdemont says he will put the matter of secession from Spain to the region's parliament. This makes it certain that the government in Madrid will assume emergency constitutional powers over Catalonia. Mr. Puigdemont is the head of a coalition that has 72 seats of 135 in the Catalan parliament. As this NYT report points out Mr Puigdemont heads a coalition of separatist parties that won about 48% of the vote in parliamentary elections of Catalonia in 2015. He announced a referendum in 2017 which created more uncertainty because Spain made an effort to suppress voting and many Catalans stayed away from the voting booths. Other reports show it is not clear that a majority of Catalans favor all out independence from Spain, though they oppose the way prime minister Rajoy of Spain has handled the crisis. Control of the police and broadcasters under Article 155 of the Constitution is a step Mr Rajoy now plans to take. Mr. Rajoy says it was a decision forced on Spain by the "capricious decisions" of Mr. Puigdemont, and that it endangers Spain's economic recovery from the financial crisis with high unemployment. Puigdemont faces an internal revolt inside his separatist party if he backs down, according to this report in the NYT. As a result of this Spain is likely to move ahead with constitutional backed rule by the central government over Catalonia till a solution can be found. Mr. Puigdemont's action has created the biggest crisis for Spain since it moved to democratic elections in 1978, coming at a time when national elections led to no clear winner and the economic recovery was just beginning. Public perception is that both Mr. Puigdemont and Mr. Rajoy appear to have handled the situation poorly. ...

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Prime minister Monti of Italy played a key role in getting Germany to accept short term measures for the eurozone crisis. This includes having the European Financial Stability Facility, the eurozone's bailout fund, buying govenment bonds of Spain and Italy directly in private markets to reduce the unsustainably high yields on these bonds. The plans proposed by the EU include setting up a European banking regulator.

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The number of unemployed in Spain reaches 5.6 million people in April 2012. Finance Minister Guindos said the only bright spot was exports and a drop in the current account deficit which shows Spain's improving competitiveness: "This shows the Spanish economy is competitive, unlike some other European economies, thats the most important element of optimism for the future." The Spanish cabinet approved a Stability Program Report to be submitted to the European Union showing GDP growth of 0.2% in 2013 and 1.4% in 2014, following contraction of 1.7% in 2012, and unemployment falling slightly to 24.2% in 2013. Spain's government debt level is shown at 82.3% of GDP in 2013 declining to 81.5% in 2014.

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Spain's banks have government debt holdings as a percentage of bank assets of 6.8% compared to 13.1% for Italy's banks. This is based on data available from the IMF. But Italian banks are far better capitalized than Spanish banks. Bank shares of Italy and Spain hit post Lehman lows in July 2011, but Italian bank shares are likely to recover faster than Spanish bank shares. Italian banks raised 8 billion euros of capital in 2011 and most banks have an average core Tier 1 ratio of over 8%. By contrast Spain's bank sector is perceived by markets as undercapitalized and the IPO's of savings banks Bankia and Banca Civica will be affected by the unsettled markets.

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The cooperation between France and Italy helped persuade Germany to move forward with massive aid to the EU countries during the pandemic. Scholz, the new SPD chancellor of Germany sees the European Union with more voices from southern Europe, from France, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece as a good thing. Northern European countries are also moving in a different direction with Social Democrats governments elected in Denmark and Sweden, working on policies to reduce inequality, bring together different sections of society in a shared future, and the dignity of human beings.

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Deocuments from the weekly cabinet meeting show the new budget in France will increase revenues from household income taxes by 23%, and business taxes by 30%. The top marginal income tax rate goes up to 45% from 41%. Limiting a deduction for financial charges for company's taxable income brings in $4 billion in 2013, according to the finance ministry. The goal is to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013 from 4.5% in 2012. The finance ministry has assumed higher borrowing rates for future years- 2.9% on 10 year debt for 2013, up to 3.65% in 2015, and is not relying on the low rate of 2.18% on 10 year government bonds as reported by Trade Web Sept 28, 2012. The overall tax burden will be 46.3% in 2013, and 46.7% in 2015. French debt is at 91% of GDP for the 2nd quarter 2012, expected to be 91.3% in 2013 and falling to 82.9% in 2015. Prime minister Ayrault emphasized- "If we don't put a stop to this, taxpayer money will keep paying for debt reimbursement." Swift anticipatory action and unified government-business-labor posture under a favorable borrowing environment characterizes the approach for Britain and France in 2011-2012, compared to the situation in Spain where government action has been slow, not tough enough in cleaning up the banks, fallen behind in anticipating events and the government-business-labor unified posture has cracked under the strain. As a result under an unfavorable borrowing environment money raised from austerity type tax increases now goes to paying for debt reimbursement in Spain, leading to a situation in which debt and deficit reduction targets just get harder to achieve. A looming drop in credit ratings to junk status for Spain only makes the situation harder to overcome. ...

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With only 44% of Catalan people supporting independence and 48% opposed there is considerable division in the Catalan region about independence from Spain. The WSJ looks at different neighborhoods in Barcelona some working class and others more affluent and sees a sharp division along lines of class, age and language. People in the working class neighborhoods of Ciutat Meridiana are opposed to separation from Spain. The independence movement is mostly popular among younger, middle class and Catalan speaking people. Meridiana in northern Barcelona is one of the poorest neighborhoods. In the hip central neighborhood of Gracia with leafy squares dotted with art galleries and vegan restaurants the pro-separatist movement has major support. Support for independence is highest under age 25 and declines with age and is lowest for people at 65 years. More popular with middle class and less with people earning less than 1300 euros. Today Spain has a constitution that gives greater autonomy to individual regions such as Galicia, Basque and Catalan regions that have their own language and traditions. This was suppressed during dictator Franco's rule after the Spanish civil war in the 1930's. The Spanish constitution was written after Franco's death and ratified under King Carlos in 1978 providing freedom with self-government for all nationalities and regions, and an unusual degree of autonomy.  Poorer people in Barcelona feel the young people supporting separation are spoiled brats and dismiss charges that the state is fascist as a lack of knowledge of what fascism really is.  As the division and dispute drags on following the 2017 referendum that was declared unconstitutional, support for independence is declining, as reported in the Guardian recently.  All this has hurt the Catalan economy and foreign investment adding an economic dimension to this as Catalonia is now seeing growth lower than the national growth rate in Spain. In addition to this the new socialist government of Pedro Sanchez and some Catalan separatist parties are supporting new negotiations to address Catalan grievance. Catalans have felt that they are not getting a fair share of revenues that can be invested in housing, health and other services, that they are giving more in tax revenues than they are receiving. The 2009 financial crisis has also affected Catalonia in ways that increased support for an independent state as Catalonia was growing more than the rest of Spain at that time.  ...

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As Katya Adler of BBC explains here Catalonia's crisis is less about independence than about populism. Catalonia is already one of the most autonomous regions in Spain. Catalans want to be able to choose their future with dignity, yet on independence opinion is divided in Catalonia. Prime Minister Rajoy has not handled the crisis well says Adler, when he had many things in his favor including EU support and support under the Constitution. Police action and the negative coverage have hurt Spain. Adler also points out that Rajoy and Puigdemont may be doing this for political purposes to increase their support. Rajoy's government failed to win support for the 2018 budget as it is a minority government with thin support in parliament. Puigdemont may also have overreacted and called the referendum  without considering this carefully. and having a realistic plan. Both politicians are criticized for corruption in their parties. Catalonia wants to see more investment and revenues sent back to its region from taxes sent to the federal government making financial issues prominent more than grievances about use of Catalan language. ...

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Spain's Mariano Rajoy loses a no confidence motion in parliament and resigns as prime minister in May 2018. He is replaced by Pedro Sanchez of the opposition Socialist Party. It has only 84 seats in the 350 member parliament making his government short lived and paving the way for new elections. Rajoy came in after the 2009 financial crisis assuming the prime minister position in 2011. He has governed throughout the period of the economic crisis and high unemployment in Spain during the eurozone debt crisis, the collapse of the housing boom, the banking bailout and austerity programs in Spain. Economic growth resumed gradually since 2013.

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Inflation in the eurozone is running at 0.7%, well below the target of 2%. In a opening speech for a 2 day conference organized by the ECB in May 2014, ECB president Draghi said the increase in the value of the euro since 2011 has made commodities like oil cost less in euros, contributing to lower inflation. A key concern referred to in Draghi's speech is the data from Spain and Portugal about the difficulty for business to get loans in Spain and Portugal. About 25% of Spanish businesses and 33% of Portgual's businesses have difficulty getting loans. Even profitable companies have difficulty getting loans. One way the ECB could tackle this is to make cheap loans available to eurozone banks conditional on the money being lent to businesses and not invested in government bonds, as has happened during prior ECB efforts to capitalize banks.

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The Bank of Japan's plans to buy 100 trillion yen of Japanese government debt in 2 years to fight deflation is having a positive effect on the eurozone economies. Japanese investors are buying eurozone sovereign debt. J.P. Morgan estimates the increase in investments for overseas bonds by Japanese investors in 2013 at 45 billion euros. This is lowering the yields on the sovereign bonds of France, Netherlands and Austria to record lows and lowering the yields of sovereign bonds of Italy and Spain. The 10 year yields on Italy's government bonds declined to 4.326%. Yields on 10 year Japanese government bonds was 0.514% on April 8, 2013.