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The serious problem of the large number of long term unemployed in the U.S. in 2012, strikingly different from any previous recession the U.S. has experienced. This means that if the problem is not addressed or solved these unemployed people will simply fall by the wayside, say experts. U.S. Federal chairman Bernanke, says this is a priority to be taken into account in setting interest rate policy. His fears are that this will be a permanent loss to the productive capacity of the U.S. Evidence of the extent of this problem is that the share of the population that is working has barely budged since late 2009 when the global financial crisis hit. It dropped from above 62% to about 58% in late 2009. It was 58.6% in ealry 2012, based on Labor Department data, even though the unemployment rate edged down to 8.3% by Feb. 2012.

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With 40% of the unemployment shown as longterm unemployed, U.S. Federal Reserve policies are focussed on bringing down these levels, which pose a risk to the productive capacity in the U.S.

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Lack of individual accountability has been a defining feature of large U.S. Justice Department legal settlements with banks and other corporate entities since 2009. This WSJ editorial says establishing individual accountability where wrongdoing has happened is something it has consistently called for since 2009, especially as establishing this would reduce the unnecessary burden imposed on shareholders and employees who may have had nothing do to with the wrongdoing.

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After S&P downgraded 17% of its Triple A-rated structured finance securities in 2010, the company has faced intense scrutiny about how it rates securities. Mark Adelson joined S&P in May 2008. He is the chief credit officer of S&P, and the man most responsible for S&P's efforts to reestablish its credibility as a ratings firm. He worked for Moody's in the late 1990's, before joining the research team at Nomura Securities in 2001. Adelson made changes to the S&P ratings system for mortgage securities in 2009, which resulted in cutting the ratings of 68% of its commercial-mortgage securities. Adelson also helped set the new S&P criteria on sovereign debt rating issued on June 30, 2011.

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Brent crude drops below $60 by Dec. 15, 2014.

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The Wall Street Journal in this editorial says President Obama is negotiating deficit reductions with Republicans to gain an advantage in the 2012 presidential elections. Its view is that President Obama is offering Republicans a Hobson's choice: if they agree to raise taxes they would be giving up on a campaign pledge, and if the government shuts down and seniors do not get retirement checks in August letting the Republicans take the blame. For this reason it supports Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell's proposal to give the President the authority to make the debt limit increase, and for Republicans to withdraw from talks on the deficit reductions that involve tax increases.

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Izzo looks at the diverging picture presented by two Labor Department surveys of unemployment in the U.S. for July 2012- an increase of 163,000 jobs or 195,000 fewer people working. One, the Household Survey is based on survey of individual households counts people and the other the Establishment Survey based on a survey of employers counts jobs. If one person holds two jobs he would be counted twice in the Establishment Survey and once in the Household Survey. If a person is a unincorporated self employed person, a family employee who isn't paid, a farm worker who is employed but not paid he is counted in the Household Survey, but left out in the Establishment Survey. The Labor Department prepares a third measure of the number of people working by adjusting for multple jobholders and for workers not counted in the survey of businesses. By this third measure the U.S. economy added 108,000 jobs in July, which is far less than the 163,000 jobs shown added in the Establishment Survey. Because of the increase in parttime work it is likely that more people are doing multiple jobs which may explain some of this difference. Another reason could be the severe drought in the U.S. that may be reducing the opportunities for work for freelance construction maintenance and day laborers because of restrictions on water use. This shows that it takes several months of data to get some sense of where unemployment is headed, adjusting the numbers for unusual events or weather, and looking behind the numbers to the sectors generating jobs. In the first quarter of 2012 more jobs were generated in the U.S. because of a mild winter, followed by fewer jobs in the second quarter, which required looking at the two quarters together to get a better picture. Adjusting for the long term unemployed who have quit looking is also necessary to get a correct reading of U.S. unemployment levels....

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U.S. auto sales including cars and light trucks reached 17.5 million in 2015, a 5.7% increase over 2014. Larger vehicles including pickup tucks and SUV's account for about half of all auto sales in 2015, with gas prices below $2.00 a gallon in Jan 2016 in most parts of the U.S. The average transaction price was up to $34,428, according to Kelley Blue Book. Auto incentives were up to $3063 per vehicle compared to $2809 ten years earlier, according to Kelley Blue Book. Analysts say automakers will reduce margins to subsidize zero interest loans in 2016 to increase sales. Lower sales are forecast after 2017 as the market will have caught up with much of the pent up demand by then. A plus for the automakers is the lower cost of steel and other material costs, and the better cost structures after bankruptcy, and renegotiated lower union pay scales. Additional plus is new management at U.S. automakers and at Toyota, and the technological advances this management is pushing, including fuel efficiency. Ride sharing, and other services developed by Google, are seen as disrupting the traditional car model to a limited extent. Countering this new development are millenials who are accounting for a quarter of Toyota sales in the last quarter of 2015, according to a Toyota executive....

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Women executives at a panel discussion sponsored by Columbia Universiy in New York, in Dec. 2014, provide ideas for getting more women in Tech fields. Ideas include, mentoring, with early education exposure to technology careers- as early as middle school. One executive says she takes in 150 female high school students to Washington D.C. for leadership training. Other ideas are to turn maternity leave into a positive feature of women's lives by letting women who do well keep their duties by delegating them to others while they are away, and making a smooth pathway back to work full time. The suggestion is to allow a gradual transition to ramp back up to full time work, and allow flexible hours, working from home. In daily work women are encouraged to look for partnerships with other areas of the organization for getting results, and being sensitive to which areas of the organization they need to build support in.

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U.S. gasoline prices were below $2.06, adjusted for inflation, during 1986-2003, dropping to a low of $1.51 in 1998. U.S. gasoline prices at the pump dropped below $2.00 in Jan. 2015. Buyer behaviour responded quickly to the change for automobiles, with sport utility (SUV) sales rising to 34% market share in the U.S. in mid-Nov. 2014, according to Edmunds.com.

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A crisis situation exists in state revenue and spending needs. According to a Census Bureau report overall state revenue in the US dropped 30.8%, to $1.1 trillion, between fiscal 2008 and 2009. The gap between the spending needed to provide services in the recession and revenues is very large. States fiscal problems along with housing losses, will be the two forces acting as a drag to the US recovery in 2011-2012. State payrolls will be cut back and contracts to private companies reduced to cut spending. Declining federal help in 2011-2012, with the new focus on reducing the federal deficit, will worsen the situation. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, even with large federal help 46 states had to raise taxes and make cuts to close a combined gap of $130 billion in their current budgets. And next year 40 states already have projected gaps totaling $113 billion. Even as revenues drop, the Census Bureau report says the state government expenditures went up by 3% to provide essential services, safety net programs and education. Illinois has a budget deficit of 45 percent of its overall budget, according to the Pew Center on the States. In California it is equal to 13% of te state's total budget, and in Arizona it is 15%. For 2009 tax collections fell by 8.5%, and were partially offset by a 12.9% increase in federal help, which was a total of $477.7 billion, according to te Census Bureau report....

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Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke's move in January 2012 to announce detailed projections for interest rates for each of the 17 Fed Governors participating in policy meetings, is an effort to show that he operates by consensus. Names of the Fed Governors are not stated.This is a change from the Greenspan years at the Fed. Hilsenrath points to the research done by Alan Blinder of Princeton University, former Fed vice chairman, which shows group consensus based action works bettter. Another reason for this is the Fed's damaged credibility after the Greenspan years and the financial crisis of 2008, when the Fed operated under one dominant figure. An additional step taken by Bernanke is to move from the ad hoc type of policy decisions of the past decade to a longer term plan for unemployment and inflation goals. The Fed has set a 2% goal for inflation with some flexibility to reduce unemployment if it is too high. This gives businesses more information to plan ahead and improves Fed credibility....

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CNN reporter Cassie Spodak provides this exceptional report into the minds of New Hampshire Democratic voters who gave Bernie Sanders a 22 percent lead in the New Hampshire Democratic primary over Hillary Clinton. In October 2016 Hillary Clinton has the support of Bernie Sanders against Donald Trump in the U.S. presidential election. She described it as "100 percent support" in television debate. Sanders has appeared with Clinton twice, and campaigned 4 times in New Hampshire, and continually across the country. Younger New Hampshire voters still long for Sanders as their favored candidate. Older voters and some who have been motivated by Sanders to run for local office see the shaping of the Democratic Party platform as a victory for Sanders. Key planks of Sanders, taxes on the wealthy and higher incomes to pay for student tuition, infrastructure, and helping working class families, are now key parts of the Democratic platform. These voters see this as a pragmatic step and are enthusiastic in their support for Hillary Clinton. Overall Clinton now has 87 percent of Democratic voter support in New Hampshire according to a WMUR/UNH poll in mid October 2016, and she is doing well with millenials and independents nationally, a critical bloc of voters for Clinton to show nationwide support. One member of the steering committee for Sanders in New Hampshire named Dudley Dudley, reflects the opinion that has shifted the party to emerge united during and even more so in the final months of the presidential campaign of 2016- she tells the CNN reporter Spodak that she supports Hillary because "of the way she has grown, and stretched," and the way Clinton and Sanders are now campaigning together and working together. Both Clinton and Sanders deserve credit for their extraordinary ability to grow during their campaigns and during the party's way to shape the way forward. ...

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Samuelson points out that the golden age of bipartisan harmony never existed. Yet it is true to say that with the constant chatter on cable television and stridently expressed views, the activism of the more extreme wings of both American parties, and the role of money in politics, the partisan nature of politics in America has increased. And this is happening even when the Gallup polls from 1992 and 2010 show similiar numbers for the people who describe themselves as Conservative, Liberal or Moderate, showing that the people themselves haven't changed (42-43% Conservative, 35-36% Moderate, 17-20% Liberal), but activism at the edges of both parties has. In this condition, only 7% of americans have a "very positive view" of the Republican party, only 11% of Americans have a "very positive view" of the Democratic party and only 12% of Americans have a "very positive view" of the Tea party (even though the Tea party is at the height of its mometum). The net impact says Samuelson is that the nation's important problems get neglected. There is little discussion about the expenditure of blood and treasure in Afghanistan, says Tom Brokaw, see his article. There is little discussion of the need to rebuild America's deteriorating infrastructure. Or a serious discussion on deficits or energy. All this is lost in the dysfunctional politics of the moment. This is a significant observation....

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David Wessel says there are three hypotheses about the slow recovery with growth of 1.9% in the first quarter of 2011, estimated growth of 1.4-1.5% for the second quarter. The first, is that this is transitory, with gas prices, Japan's tsunami disrupting supply chians, and Europe's poor handling of the financial crisis. This he scores as wishful thinking. The second, that the stimulus was too small, the need for a second stimulus, or the related hypothesis of the large uncertainty hanging over business, including the debt ceiling negotiations, deficit etc. This he scores as more convincing, but one is not sure different policies would have led to a different situation. The third hypothesis is that the underlying diagnosis of the economy itself was hopeful but flawed and wrong. Hope about the housing market- which has been proved wrong. The same for exports, or consumer spending. Wessel cites Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhardt's new book on the afterperiod of financial crises and asset bubbles, with data going back to many historical periods showing that the periods following crises are difficult having protracted periods of slow or marginal economic growth....

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John Taylor on the dual mandate for inflation and unemployment and discretionary policies by the U.S. Federal Reserve that ended up creating booms and busts in the U.S. economy. He advocates replacing the dual mandate of "maximum employment" and "stable prices," which was inserted into the Federal Reserve Act in the 1970's, with a single mandate for "long-run price stability." Taylor points out that this will still give the Fed flexibility, as it is focussed on long run price stability. The Fed does not have to overreact to short run increases in inflation. And he points out that this actually will work well for unemployment as the booms caused by an overextended period of low interest rates such as that in 2003-2005, have led to booms followed by busts with high unemployment.

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A number of issues came up at the Women20 Summit in Berlin. Annette Niederfranke, Director of the International Labor Organization, brought up the issue of family reconciliation as "one of the toughest challenges for working women worldwide," that in order to meet obligations women tended to work in "non standard forms of employment and in part time work linked to lower wages, lower social security, lower benefits, and fewer training possibilities." Childcare was also an issue that was prominent considering the lack of adequate childcare in many countries including in the European Union. With responsibilities for the elderly, babies, and small children women tend to be in the workforce for shorter periods leading to men taking up many of the higher positions. Angela Merkel pointed out that Gemany tended to take a narrow view of professions available to girls, saying- "So it is very very important that we take a broader view of things while girls are still at school." Merkel also supports a Africa compact that would help women set up small and middle size businesses in poor countries. The "Digital" aspects of this and other efforts for women were a major topic being discussed. One idea that came up was that more cooperation from men was needed to make things happen. This is the third Women20 Summit after ones in Turkey and China, and a sense of momentum was felt by women. ...

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The International Energy Agency lowers its global oil demand forecasts on Dec. 11, 2014, leading to further drop in the price of oil with oil futures in electronic trading for WTI at $58.89 on New York Mercantile Exchange, and Brent crude at $62.83 on ICE in London, for January 2015. The price of WTI U.S. oil dropped to $59.95 on Dec. 11, 2014.

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U.S. District Judge Jed Rakoff was critical of the S.E.C.'s practice of entering into consent judgements which allowed defendents to not admit to wrongdoing. In his order Judge Rakoff rejected a $285 million settlement with Citigroup for a mortgage-bond deal. In his order he said such settlements are viewed by the business community as "a cost of doing business." He found it hard to discern what the S.E.C. would be getting out of such a settlement "except a quick headline." Rakoff summarized the problem with such settlements and the S.E.C.'s practices when it comes to the public's interest: "In any case like this that touches on the transparency of financial markets whose gyrations have so depressed our economy and debilitated our lives, there is an overriding public interest in knowing the truth. In much of the world, propaganda reigns, and truth is confined to secretive, fearful whispers. Even in our nation, apologists for suppressing or obscuring the truth can always be found. But the S.E.C., of all agencies, has a duty, inherent in its statutory mission, to see that the truth emerges; and if it fails to do so, this Court must not, in the name of deference or convenience, grant judicial enforcement to the agency's contrivances."...