LyrArc Article Gist
China's July 2012 exports were up barely by 1%, over the same month prior year. Exports to the European Union declined by 16.2%. A big problem is cost increases for land, labor and electricity. By 2004 China's exports were growing at a peak rate of 35%. Since then prices of inputs have increased- wages by 150%, land by 70%, and electricity prices by 30%, according to Dragonomics. The yuan appreciated by 30%. Productivity is increasing by about 8% a year, according to the World Bank. As a result of the price increases of inputs the competitiveness of China, with products exported mainly on the basis of price, is deteriorating.

LyrArc Article Gist
Unemployment is over 25% on Chicago's South Side black neighborhoods. Conditions have deteriorated with the higher unemployment since the economic crisis. Residents see little improvement since the days of Obama as a community activist in this part of the city.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ruth Marcus looks at the assumptions behind Romney's tax plan and questions whether simplifying the tax system with lower rates would help create the climate for higher economic growth and lower unemployment. Much of the differences between Republicans and Democrats revolve around this assumption, a core belief on one side and skepticism on the other. An effort to obtain a bipartisan assessment was made with the Simpson-Bowles commission recommendations, which advised closing loopholes and reducing deductions. The work done by Martin Feldstein on the Romney Tax plan builds on this approach of limiting deductions, and reducing taxes across the board. An issue for Democrats is inequality. Lower wages to improve competitiveness in manufacturing industry is a trend in Republican and Democratic administrations, because of the effort to improve U.S. competitiveness against other trading nations and has played a large part in lowering incomes in manufacturing oriented midwest and eastern states. The other cause of increasing inequality is the housing crisis and the effects on the economy through foreclosures and unemployment. The housing crisis developed under a Republican administration, and the lack of effective measures to prevent foreclosures under the last 4 years of a Democratic administration worsened the economic condition of the middle class, and especially so for minorities. During the housing and foreclosure crisis the proposals put forward by Republicans Martin Feldstein, a Harvard economist, and Sheila Bair, head of the FDIC who calls herself a "populist from Kansas," for bold government help to homeowners under water would have helped the middle class financially, and especially minorities, far more than the efforts of the Democratic Obama administration, and under Feldstein's plan even turned aound the housing market and boosted a recovery. Trends in world trade and industry have large effects outside what administrations of either party can control, and a lot depends on the temperament, wisdom and leadership provided....

LyrArc Article Gist
The SPD's Peter Steinbruck's criticism of Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis. Speaking to the Bundestag Steinbruck said Merkel had wasted time and billions of dollars of taxpayers before committing to keep Greece in the eruozone. "You should have held this speech three years ago... Never has Germany been so isolated in Europe as it is today." He said Merkel was not being honest with Germans that to be part of Europe Germany had to take on some of the cost and that it was worth it. Instead she was riding the wave of negative opinion for the eurozone and at the same time trying to keep up Germany's influence in Brussels, creating a perception of a new kind of German "industrial imperialism." This comes as France's president Hollande expressed serious dissatisfaction with Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis in an interview with reporters of 5 European newspapers in October 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Posturing and negotiating between Republicans and Democrats on deficit reduction before the "fiscal cliff" of automatic spending cuts and tax increases on Jan. 1, 2013.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Senate voted 51 to 49 on a Democratic party measure for further reductions in 2012 Social Security payroll taxes for workers and employers, including a surtax on incomes over $1 million. A measure supported by the Republican party to pay for the payroll tax cut by reducing the Federal payrolls was defeated, with half the Republicans voting against it. Democrats hope to use this issue to show Republicans favor the rich over the middle class, as the payroll tax cut benefits most Americans. Polls show Americans by a large majority see Republican policies favoring the rich. A New York Times/CBS poll in October showed 7 of 10 Americans feel this way. Pollster Geoff Garin says the income inequality issue is beginning to override other issues including antigovernment feeling. This is one way in which the Occupy Wall Street Movement's slogan of "the 99 percent" has resonated with U.S. public opinion. The Democratic party sees this as an opportunity to define the campaign issues for 2012, with Republicans running for reelection cautious about being seen this way....

LyrArc Article Gist
Close to half of the respondents in the 2010 Annual Survey of the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai, say that they face regulators who show a preference for domestic companies. About 80% of respondents said their operations were profitable in 2010. In 1999, 58% of Shanghai members of the chamber said their profit margins were below worldwide levels. In 2010, 78% said their profit margins matched world levels. Just under half of the respondents said they feared a negative impact from China's effort to build "indigenous innovation" and encourage domestic champions in each industry. 63.1% of respondents say regulations are getting worse or staying the same. Chinese President Hu on a state visit to the US in January 2011 is presenting the idea of a level playing field for American companies.

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Banking Authority has lost credibility after two rounds of stress tests by the EBA failed to turn up the problems at Spanish banks that required a $125 billion recapitalization by the EU rescue fund. Now EU officials are turning to the European Central Bank as the eurozone's main banking regulator. The U.S. Federal Reserve is performing this role after the 2008 financial crisis, with the FDIC in charge of bank closures and resolution. ECB president Mari Draghi says, letting the ECB perform supervisory tasks, a decision made at the June 28 EU summit talks, is fully in line with the bank's mandate. Separate decisions will be needed for a bank resolution authority like the FDIC. The ECB will then have to hire hundreds of banking experts to make on site visits to eurozone banks and check their loan books and make independent assessments of bad loans, bank risks, and capital requirements. The important thing is an agency which is free of local and political interference to make the correct evaluations....

LyrArc Article Gist
A study by the National Employment Law Project shows most of the job creation in the economic recovery to 2014 in the U.S. is replacing the better paying jobs with lower paying jobs in fast food retail and similiar low paying industries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Porter cites a report by Kai Daniel Schmid and Ulrike Stein of the Macroeconomic Policy Institute in Dusseldorf. The report shows the top 10% of Germans having 26% of the country's income before taxes and transfers in 1991. This increased to 31% by 2010. For the same period of about 20 years the bottom half of the population took in 17% in 2010 dropping by 5% from 22%. The growing income inequality in Germany is comparable to what has happened in the U.S. over this period.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mitt Romney's position on the auto industry bailout was spelled out in an article in the New York Times in 2008 titled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt." Romney opposed government loans to the auto industry. Because of the unusual factors that faced the auto industry such as the subprime mortgage driven financial credit crisis, financial market volatility and GM and Chrysler being shut out of credit markets, the need to maintain buyer confidence during bankruptcy, the planned bankruptcy with government loans was seen as the way to rescue a crucial part of the U.S. manufacturing industry by other business executives such as Jack Welch of GE, and by many adviors to the government from the private sector.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Fed gets tougher on "too big to fail" but how tough? Does it have the guts to go after this problem asks Peter Eavis. If he does Bernake would go down in history as a hero says Eavis. Meanwhile Fed Governor Tarullo clearly point to the utterly inconceivable fact that after a crisis of these proportions with large banks being bailed out, the remaining banks and financial institutions are larger than before the crisis. And the banking lobby has stalled regulation to control the problems in derivatives trading and other areas. Splitting up or downsizing the banks and separating their social function as deposit takers in the economy from their trading desks and investment activity, is being advocated by central bankers from Volcker to Mervyn King. See links.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the U.S. Federal Reserve's forecasts in March 2012 show the U.S. will experience low inflation and high unemployment for many years. These forecasts are in sharp contrast to the expectations in the equity markets based on an uptick for a couple of months of unemployment numbers. The Fed's own statements suggest the improvement in hiring may be temporary and a response to the overreaction in hiring in 2009-2010 to the financial crisis, and not a lasting improvement. The Fed pointed out that the long term unemployed are at about 40% of the total unemployed and the share of the population that is working in March 2012 has barely budged from 58% in 2009.

LyrArc Article Gist
John Taylor looks one step ahead of the March 2012 Greece bailout and sets up the most plausible scenario for the future. He says the risks of contagion were always exaggerated from the beginning- a planned default or restructuring of debt such as happened in Argentina in 2001, does not have the contagion risks associated with a chaotic and unplanned default as in Russia in 1998. Predicability in policy makes a huge difference, says Taylor. The European banks which stood to lose from writedowns exaggerated the fears of contagion- a process that always occurs for people who are adversely affected by writedowns- resulting in top officials in the European Union delaying the unavoidable serious restructuring. It was not until Chancellor Merkel handed Charles Dallara, who negotiated for the European banks, a note stating a demand for 50% bondholder writedown, on October 27, 2011, at EU headquarters in Brussels, did any serious writedown of debt begin. Merkel told Dallara: "this is my last offer." The July 2011 summit by contrast had only a 10% bondholder writedown in the agreement, when insolvency not illiquidity was the real issue. Walker Forelle and Meichtry, give a detailed account of what happened in the Wall Street Journal, Dec. 30, 2011. The important thing for Greece, says Taylor, is for what the IMF calls "growth enhancing structural reforms" - greater reliance on private markets, incentives, rule of law. He says this bailout won't work because IMF growth forecasts do not reflect the rapid shrinking of the Greek economy. Antonis Samaras, leader of the major opposition party, is in favor of pro-growth measures and has stated his desire to change the agreement. The 130 billion euro bailout provides 90 billion euros for recapitalizing Greece's banks, and financing the budget. This puts Greece in a situation where the political leaders win voter support by discarding the conditions from the Northern EU nations and come with a plan that is better suited for Greece. The EU in this scenario would cut off further bailout funds to Greece. Taylor sees this as the better outcome for Greece than the current situation, which leaves Greece no hope for growth, and also for the EU by getting out of bailouts that have little prospect of working. It would be difficult but doable for Greece says Taylor, because interest payments would be low and Greek banks would be recapitalized after the current March 2012 bailout. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This article by Gerald Seib in the WSJ says not enough was done to attract white working class voters- critical for Trump in industrial swing states- at the Democratic National Convention. He says only on the last night of the convention did a factory worker, a home care provider and a laid off restaurant worker, appear on the stage. These are the voters who have drifted away from the Democratic Party. The convention draws ironically on Republican themes, defense foreign policy as in the speeches by Leon Panetta and retired General Allen, and in efforts to portray Hillary as more human with frailties but a 40 year public service record that includes exceptional work for children. Actually the appeal to traditional Democratic white working class voters was there always in the background with most of the speakers, as it colored most speakers comments including Biden and Kane, who have the colloquial language and style to appeal to this group. The appeal to traditionally white working class voters is in the party platform with the $15 minimum wage for service industry workers, and in the promise to provide college free tution for people making less than $125,000. The Democrats simply painted this with a different brush. Contrasting the callous attitude to the poor and struggling of billionaires like Trump with those who have fought for pushing people up the ladder since FDR- with the lapses in recent years from the tech boom which left some workers short now being addressed. This was expressed by Hillary Clinton saying to Bernie Sanders voters- "your cause is our cause." For Democrats it was more effective to tackle the traditionally Democratic working class voters first, before shifting to working class voters who are border line Republican because of social issues or those who are so disaffected so as to be beyond reach. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
In December 2009, the Obama administration assumed an economic recovery was underway. But administration economist Christina Romer was proven wrong in her assessment of the situation. Many of the new jobs added at the time were from temporary surge due to census hiring. The administration lost its focus on unemployment and failed to grasp the economic situation.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Speaker Paul Ryan and Senator Tim Scott describe the event on poverty organized by the Jack Kemp Foundation in Jan. 2016, in which both Congressmen are moderators. Ryan and Scott point out the importance of upward educational and economic mobility for working class and middle class people. The 2 Republican leaders say education, work, opportunity and accountability for federal spending in anti-poverty programs are critical parts of their program for addressing the problem. They suggest trying different solutions by giving states more opportunity to try different solutions.

LyrArc Article Gist
A study by Prof. Peter Petri of Brandeis University, shows the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement boosting economic output in the U.S. by about 0.4% by 2025 or $77 billion. Winners are biologic drugs which get long term patent protection, tech firms and software engineering services. Losers are the Detroit auto industry with higher auto parts imports, light manufacturing, and some heavy manufacturing sectors. Prof. Douglas Irwin of Dartmouth College and other experts say it is not clear how U.S. consumers and businesses will benefit. The import duties as a percentage of total imports are now at about 1.4%. Experts say about 4/5ths of the benefits of TPP for the U.S. are from opening up trade in services and new rules for investment and commerce. TPP includes Pacific countries Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Chile, Mexico, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, and Japan. Issues are environmental rules, worker protection and standards, agricultural imports in sensitive countries such as Canada and Japan, affordable drugs in poor countries....

LyrArc Article Gist
This Wall Street Journal editorial comes out in favor of higher capital reserve requirements similiar to that suggested by Federal Reserve Board governor Daniel Tarullo. The Journal says that if regulators are serious in the U.S. about controlling systemic risk, then the 14% rule or a 15% rule for assets held in reserve by banks should be adopted. Daniel Tarullo had suggested a 14% capital reserve requirement. These requirements would be phased in gradually over several years. Basel III requirements require only a 7% requirement and is phased in over many years. Capital standards are likely to be gamed. For this reason the requirement for only Tier 1 capital to be eligible is essential. What about the Basel III standards and the European banks? Would this put them in a better position to earn higher returns. This should be a problem left for European taxpayers to tackle says the Journal. As long as U.S. taxpayers are supporting U.S. banks with an implicit subsidy to take on larger amounts of risk -because they will be saved in a crisis with taxpayer dollars- the Journal says it makes sense to require 10-14% in capital reserves. It cites the Japanese banks which were highly overleveraged with lower capital reserves compared to American banks, and fared poorly. The Dodd-Frank bill imposes a complicated set of regulatory requirements with regulators required to write new sets of rules. The editorial concludes that it is far better to tackle the problems in the banking system with a sufficiently high requirement for capital reserves to manage risks than to have the detailed rule making on every subject that Dodd-Frank suggests....

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation in China and rising wages are pushing up costs for American manufacturers. The pressure on China, most recently in Congress, is helping to push up the value of the yuan. This combined trend is making it attractive for some manufacturers to bring factories home to the U.S. A trend in the U.S. towards non-unionized labor and the new trend to a two-tier wage level- with lower wages for entry level workers- and the shedding of legacy health care costs, is creating a more cost competitive labor force in the U.S. This extends from older industries such as furniture and auto components to newer industries and technology. The new factories setup in the U.S. use technologies that require a smaller number of workers, in most cases less than half the number of workers that were employed earlier. This adds another element in cost efficiency, though it means fewer jobs are created with new plants.

LyrArc Article Gist
Brooks describes the U.S. presidential campaigns of Republican Romney and Democrat Obama as very consequential but incredibly dull, an effort to get uninformed voters with a barrage of negative advertising. There is very little enthusiasm for either candidate in their parties and the only feeling motivating each party is that the other candidate and his policies would be a disaster. There is hardly any effort at intellectual innovation, bringing new ideas or thoughtful debate into the election campaign. With four months left before the presidential elections the situation appears likely to drag on in this way right into the final days, with each side running a well oiled media campaign around themes that cast the other side in a negative light.