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On one of the major issues of 2014-2015 U.S. Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky provides conviction and vigorous defense of liberties. Senator Rand Paul made this the centerpiece of his campaign for the U.S. presidential election of 2016. On May 30, 2016, Rand Paul said: "Tomorrow, I will force the expiration of the NSA illegal spy program. I believe we must fight terrorism, and I believe we must stand strong against our enemies. But we do not need to give up who we are to defeat them. In fact, we must not." With Republicans split on this issue, the strong defense of liberties taken by Rand Paul makes it certain that the Patriot Act will expire on May 31, 2015, and the NSA bulk surveillance of phone data will end. Both the American Civil Liberties Union and the conservative Tea Party Patriots have praised the extensive debate on the issue of the damage done by such surveillance tactics. Both the ACLU and the Tea Party see the need to let the 2001 Patriot Act and legislation supporting bulk data surveillance to expire....

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Gikas Hardouvelis was finance minister during a crucial period of impementation of the 2012 bailout program for Greece from June 2013 to Jan. 2015. Here he outlines the mistakes he sees made by the IMF in not agreeing to the 7.2 billion payment to Greece in 2014, 4% of Greece GDP, with one third of that not a loan. At the fifth review of the 2012 bailout the EU commissioner for economic affiars, Pierre Muscovici , said Greece had completed its requirements and the 7.2 billion euro funding should be released. Yet he says the IMF to preserve leverage over a future Syriza administration in the 2015 elections decided to hold back. This made it harder for the Samaras administration to tell voters that it had completed the program a year earlier, and the lack of the funds hurt the Samaras administration as it erased signs of growth that had appeared in early 2014. Following this error he points to 4 mistakes made by the Syriza Tsipras government. The first was that it was bitterly opposed to the lenders (IMF, EU and ECB) and failed to focus on the economy. Hardouvelis points out that the maturity of the debt of 16.5 years and low interest rates meant that it was not the immediate issue facing Greece, and he calls it very manageable. This was not to say that it was important but with creditors worried about moral hazard, other issues could be taken up first. Another mistake was to allow a loss of liquidity to the private sector so that prospects of growth were erased. The new finance minister acted as if the $7.2 billion infusion was not important and let payments be delayed. Tsipras and Varoufakis let the uncertainty increase in the private sector, and let the economy decline all the way to the closing of the banks. How costly was this is evident from the IMF's own paper in Juy 2015 and the 3 page update of July 14, 2015, on the Greek debt, showing it cost Greece a total of 60 billion euros in additional financing needed and an additional 25 billion euros for the shock from the closing of the banking system. That 3 page IMF paper shows that within the space of one year a shocking amount of damage was done by Syriza left government- it says Greece went from being on track for reaching Debt to GDP of 105% by 2022 under the Samaras-Hardouvelis administration in July 2014, to 142% by June 2015, and with the closing of the banking system to 170% by July 2015. Some of this would have come from the IMF's own withholding of the 7.2 billion euro payment to the Samaras government. ...

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Residential installation of solar panels in the U.S. is expected to more than double to over 500 megawatts in 2013 from over 200 megawatts in 2010. Global government funding of solar energy will nearly triple by 2015 compared to 2009, according to the International Energy Agency.

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Has the world missed opportunities for progress in renewables? The 2022 Global Renewable Report by REN21 international policy network answers this question. The renewables accounted for 20% of world's energy use in 2011. In 2021 it advanced only 8 percentage points to 28% over 10 years. This is important because use of coal, oil and gas increased by 4% and carbon emissions by 6% in 2021 with the end of lockdowns from the pandemic and increased energy consumption, according to International Energy Agency.

Something is wrong also in the capital going into subsidies to reduce prices of oil and gas which are $18 trillion for 2018 to 2020, $5.9 trillion in 2020 alone. Compare this with the $366 billion invested in renewables in 2021 and one can see the huge dimensions of the problem facing the world, this planet Earth that we live in.

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The new Australian budget is designed to generate a slight surplus from the A$44 billion deficit for the fiscal year ending June 30. This prepares the Australian government of Julia Gillard for elections in 2013. The budget depends on the mining boom to generate the tax revenues for planned economic growth of over 3% in 2012-2013. This is based on the large number of projects planned for investments in oil, gas and other energy projects, valued at US$456 billion. GE as supplier of turbines and other products to the Chevron-Total gas project and other projects in Australia, has sales in Australia match its sales level in China in 2012-2013. This gives an idea of the extent of the boom in the mining and energy sector. Even the widening trade deficit to A$1.59 in March 2012 reflects large imports for the mining sector. The weakness of this approach is that too much is dependent on the mining and offshore gas boom. Retail spending is weak and Australia is increasingly looking like a two tier economy, subject to the boom and bust cycles that its mining companies have experienced in the past. A bubble in Australia's housing markets and uncertainties in the global economy pose other risks....

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The real estate bubble in Canada with the average price of a home in Toronto in May 2012 reaching C$516,787, increasing by 6.5% from 2011, according to the Toronto Real Estate Board.

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David Kostin, Goldman Sach's U.S. equity strategist and his prediction of the S&P 500 at 1250 at the end of 2012. The S&P was at 1421 on April 1, 2012, the highest it has been since May 20, 2008. In his research note Kostin says that over the longer term the stock market will offer opportunities after a more normal growth environment is reestablished. This is similiar to the view held by John Bogle, founder of Vanguard. For the short term- the 2012-2013 time frame Kostin sees tactical risks, and results below average. The reason he gives is low economic growth and the large degree of uncertainty. The situation in Europe shows slowing to no growth and more deficit problems, and the sanctions on Iran pose risks for oil prices.

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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010. ...

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A Pew Center poll in Greece shows support for the Euro at 69% in 2013. The situation in Greece has improved in 2013 with the economy expected to decline by 4% in 2013 and return to growth in 2014. The current account deficit at 11% in 2008 is now close to zero. Unemployment is stabilizing and the competitiveness is being restored as labor costs per hour are down 30%, according to Alpha Bank. Ten year government bond yields are now below 8% in 2013, a dramatic improvement.

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Gome's share price fell 21% on March 27, 2012. The company is facing strong competition from online sellers. Its profits declined by 6% in 2011. China is seeing an upsurge for online retailers such as 360Buy.com and Taobao. Gome's internal estimates are for internet sales of home appliances to be 1 in 3 by 2016, up from 1 in 10 in 2010. Gome is in a similiar position as Best Buy in the U.S. which competes with Amazon.com and other online sellers. To compete Gome is promoting its own online shopping operations.

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Experts at the East-West Center in Honolulu, say China will add about 55 million barrels to its strategic reserves in 2012, which is another factor that will keep oil prices high in 2012. A number of new storage locations are coming on stream to store the additional reserves. China imported 5.57 millon barrels a day in March 2012, an increase of 8.7% from the prior year month. Oil imports for the 1st quarter of 2012 increased by 11% over the prior year quarter, according to China's General Administration of Customs. This is a much faster pace than imports in 2011, which increased by 6%. China is building its strategic reserves to reach a goal of 90 days supply similiar to the U.S. strategic reserves. Lu Tienan, director of China's National Energy Administration, said at a conference in the first week of April that current total oil stocks, including strategic and commercial are enough for 40 days. It is doing this in the face of higher oil prices, because of the threat of sanctions against Iran's nuclear program could lead to a cutoff of Iranian supplies. China's oil imports from Iran were 11% of total imports in 2011, making this an urgent priority for China. Estimates of the East-West Center are for crude oil imports at an average of 5.77 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 13% over 2011. International Energy Agency estimates are for China's total oil demand for 2012 to be 9.9 million barrels a day in 2012, an increase of 6% over 2011....

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account summarizing the reasoning in the minds of Argentine negotiators and holdout bondholders over a debt dispute remaining from the 2001 Argentine debt crisis and default. Over a decade later the repercussions of Argentina's 2001 debt crisis and default are still taking new twists ant turns. Holdout bondholders won in U.S. courts and Judge Griesa ordered Argentina to make full payment demanded by holdout bondholders. Argentina responded by depositing $539 million in Bank of New York Mellon as instalment payment to exchange bondholders. Judge Griesa responded by ruling that if Bank of New York Mellon made the payment it would be in contempt of court. Griesa also called for court mediated negotiations between Argentina and the holdout bondholders to come up with an agreement. Argentina and hedge fund holdouts negotiated in July 2014 but talks faltered. Legal experts say that if Argentina makes an agreement with holdout bondholders led by NML Capital which is asking for $1.5 billion, the risk is that the exchange bondholders could also ask for better terms. After the 2001 crisis following which Argentina defaulted on its debt, agreements were reached for bondholders to be paid about 25 cents on the dollar. Not all bondholders agreed, the bondholders who agreed are called the exhange bondholders, and the ones holding out holdout bondholders. From the Argentine government's point of view the risk of reaching agreement with the holdouts suing Argentina is that the other holdout bondholders not represented in the lawsuit could also ask for the same terms, and Argentina would have to pay all the holdouts costing it $15 billion. Risks if Argentina allows it to go into default are that exchange bondholders would come together to pressure the Argentine government to make a full payment of their discounted bonds quickly. This would cost Argentina payment of as much as $28.7 billion, according to JPMorgan estimates, under the right to "accelerate" payment if Argentina is considered as having missed a July 30, 2014 payment deadline. Legal experts say Argentina has to weigh this risk, which may or may not occur depending on the exchange bondholders taking such action, against the risk of having to pay out $15 billion to all the holdouts. Paying all holdouts would be politically very unpopular in Argentina, posing political risks for the socialist Peronist Kirchner government, already facing difficulties with the trade unions and the stronger opposition from centrist parties in Buenos Aires province. Default would affect Argentine access to capital markets, which is already highly restricted. Yet because Argentina has made the payment to Bank of New York Mellon, blocked by Judge Griesa, the nature of this default would be different. A worse case scenario for Argentina's Kirchner government is reopening negotiations with exchange bondholders for higher payment on debt than the 25 cents on the dollar already agreed to. Argentina faces an acute cash shortage with international reserves of only about $29.5 billion in May 2014, and a slowing agricultural export dependent economy. This is why the prospect of a technical default is being treated with relative calm in Buenos Aires....

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Toyota sales were 9.75 million vehicles in 2012, up 23%. Sales were up 27% in the U.S. market. Dealer margins were trimmed to give more sales incentives. Sales for 2013 are forecast at 9.91 million vehicles reflecting slower growth in China. A weaker yen will make Toyota more competitive worldwide in 2013.

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U.S. president Trump meets with president Moon of South Korea in June 2017 at the White House. South Korea's new leader president Moon tells congressional leaders that he will not reverse the deployment of the THADD missile defense system aimed at blocking a threat from North Korean missiles. President Trump says the renegotiation of the trade treaty with South Korea is taking place, with discussions on South Korean steel exports "dumped" in the U.S. and barriers in the auto exports from the U.S. The U.S. trade deficit with South Korea jumped from $13 billion in 2011 to $27 billion in 2016, leading to charges of unfair trade. 

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Saudi Aramco raised $26 billion in 2019 IPO compared to SpaceX to raise $80 billion in 2026.

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The hike in the interest rate by 6% by the central bank of Argentina brings interest rates up to 40%. This is part of an effort to stem the decline in the value of the Argentina peso. The peso has lost a fifth of its value against the dollar so far in 2018, with a run on the peso seen on May 4th. The problems started with the central bank loosening its inflation target to 15% from 12%, says this report in the Economist. Inflation has shot up to 25% in Argentina in the last 12 months. Raising interest rates to as high as 40% is a risky move because of the effect on economic growth. President Macri and his Cambiemos (we can change) coalition won the election in 2015 by 2 percentage points over the Peronista Kirchner led party which ran the country after the debt crisis on a policy of debt reduction (desdeudameinto). Argentina's current account deficit is at 5% and growing rapidly. A major problem is the huge dollar denominated debt issued in 2016 and 2017 by the government, local government and private sector. According to the central bank BRCA the dollarized assets in 2016-2017 are about $25 billion representing capital flight, with $8 billion going for debt interest payments, profits and dividends, and $14 billion for travel and tourism. For a total of $50 billion according to central bank BRCA going to finance debt service payments, capital flight, profit remittances abroad, and tourism as a result of the issuance of $100 billion in dollar denominated debt by Argentina's government (90%) and private sector (10%). This is the first time such a large figure of dollar denominated debt was created after the financial crisis in Argentina during the first 2 Kirchner administrations during which time the debt was substantially reduced. This has led to S&P putting Argentina on the list of 5 most fragile economies in 2017. Instead of a gradual increase in issuing debt to finance economic development and focus on limiting loss through capital flight, avoiding rapid growth in dollar denominated debt, the Macri government has repeated the mistakes of the past in managing the economy. ...

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GM plans to bring 5 to 10 Cadillac models to China by 2016. It plans to build a factory for Cadillacs in China. Even as auto sales are slowing down in China in 2012, sales of luxury and premium cars are growing rapidly. Infiniti, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tata's Jaguar-Land Rover, and now GM are competing for sales to China's growing affluent class. According to IHS Global Insight, China's auto sales slowed to 2.5% growth in 2011, yet sales of premium car sales increased by 32%. With sales slowing in Europe and the U.S., car manufacturers are focussing on the luxury segment in China to boost profits. BMW's sales chief, Ian Robertson, says sales will slow in coming quarters from the 32% growth rate of 2011, but he still expects double digit growth for premium cars in future years. In making its large investments in China Ford executives said it expected a growth in China's car market of 5% over the next decade. BMW plans to increase production to 200,000 cars after opening its second plant in 2011, with capacity to ramp up to 300,000 a year....

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Serious concern about lower consumer spending in the U.K that would reduce growth and reduce government tax receipts. The unemployment rate has remained at 7.6% for 22 months. Wage levels are not keeping up with inflation of about 4.5%. The increase in the sales tax from 17.5% to 20% has added three quarters of one percent to the inflation rate, according to the National Statistics Office. VocaLink says annual wage growth in the three months through May 2011 was 1.8%, much lower than the inflation rate. Deep spending cuts are going into effect in 2011-2012, and about 300,000 jobs would be lost in the public sector with spending cuts by 2015. The IMF has reduced its estimate for growth in the U.K. to 1.5% from 1.7%. At the same time the Bank of England is under pressure to increase the interest rate of 0.5% (which is a record low), to control inflation. Britain under prime minister Cameron plans to cut government spending from 47% of GDP to 40% of GDP over six years. This will take 6 years of spending cuts, something even a previous prime minister Margaret Thatcher was not able to do. The government's Office of Budget Responsibility predicts a drop in the deficit from 11% of GDP to 7.9% by March 2012. Yet a lot depends on government tax receipts which in turn depend on economic growth. Britain showed a large deficit of 10 billion pounds in April 2011, and the situation is fraught with a high degree of uncertainty....

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India is running a large current account deficit with imports exceeding exports. The curent account deficit for the year ending March 31 was $88.2 billion, about 4.8% of GDP. With foreign investment declining remittances from Indians abroad are a major source of incoming capital. Indians overseas sent about $69 billion in remittances home in 2012, increasing from $63 billion in 2011, according to the World Bank. In August 2013 India's central bank relaxed restrictions on interest rates for overseas Indian rupee accounts and on foreign currency denonimated deposits. This has led to a sharp increase in remittances by Indians overseas, with HDFC bank reporting a 30% increase in remittance volumes in June 2013 compared to January 2013.

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Gen. Matttis, the U.S. Defense Secretary has completed a strategy review on U.S. presence in Afghanistan. The U.S. policy is now set to put in more troops to support the additional 3900 American troops to advise the Afghan Army authorized in June 2017, as it fights both the Taliban and the Islamic State affiliate in Khorasan, Afghanistan. Two differences from the policy of the Obama administration are the increased focus on Pakistan's border with Afghanistan, the Haqqani network, and other related matters which are coming under increased review so that sanctuaries are shut down. Lt. Gen. McMaster, the national security advisor, headed the governance, anti corruption review in Afghanistan during the Obama administration. This is now the focus of the Trump administration- to ask the Afghan government for improvement in these areas in return for aid. Other changes are to secure the support levels of NATO countries in the effort, so that the U.S. is not shouldering the burden alone. Gordon, Schmitt and Haberman cite the report of Gen. Nicholson, head of the American forces in Afghanistan to the U.S. Congress. This report shows deterioration in the fight against the Taliban and Islamic State. As of Nov. 2016 the areas under Afghan government control dropped 15% to 57% since 2015. About 8,400 American troops are part of the 13,000 troop international force in Aghanistan, supporting the Afghan military. An addition 2,000 troops are in counterterrorism missions.   ...