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Ajami cites his own memories of Egypt's Gamal Abdul Nasser, who had a way with crowds and rhetoric in the Arab world, as giving him an insight into the way Barack Obama found his way into the American imagination as a popular leader in 2008. He points out that the coalition of black people who put their faith in him as one of their own, of white educated professionals who liked his cool image, of Hispanics who had hope for better immigration policies, and working class Americans who set aside reservations of elitism to give their support, was put together on the basis of hope and charisma and the uncanny ability of Obama to let himself be seen as all things to all people. Because of the way it was put together it was bound to come apart, particularly for a candidate without enough experience, says Ajami. The aloofness of the president, reliance on Congressional leaders Reid and Pelosi, and relying on a very small circle of advisors whose eyes were focussed on reelection, made this more so. He cites as one example, the controversial decision on Syria's chemical weapons made on a walk with chief of staff Dennis McDonough. Ajami gives a picture of how Obama may be seen from the outside, especially in the Arab and Muslim world- from Turkey and Egypt to Saudi Arabia- a sense of illusions. A European and particularly a German perspective also may have similiar sense of illusions about having gone for the ride and believing the image put out by image handlers. The lack of sensitivity to German sentiments about the tapping of chancellor Merkel's mobile phone- herself a former East German resident of the Soviet backed GDR- bringing this out. A similiar sense seems to have taken hold in Brazil, after Brazilian president Rousseff cancelled a trip because of lack of sensitivity to the tapping of her phone, as she is a survivor of brutal dictatorships in Brazil. This is ironically a full circle, as happens in these situations of euphoria encouraged by politicians inevitably followed by disillusionment, because Turkey, Germany and Brazil were some of the countries where enthusiasm for the new president was highest. More so because president Lula of Brazil, Merkel of Germany,and Erdogan of Turkey were leaders Obama seemed to relate to the most. This acts as a cautionary note for the future....

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The Gulf economies are not managing their wealth that much better this time. There is more money in the hands of private companies compared to the last boom but the investments in Saudi Arabia to create 6 or 7 cities in the desert and the huge construction boom pose questions about what is the best way to allocate capital for countries like Saudi Arabia, which have larger population than some Abu Dhabi or Dubai for instance. Are many aluminium plants and other similiar investments and building cities in the desert the best way to allocate capital resources to provide for the needs of a growing population in Saudi Arabia, especially as high prices of oil may not last more than a couple of years if conservation and energy efficiency really take hold and there is a global softening in growth after the rapid pace of the last decade? Interestingly some of the wealth that is being spread through imported labor to neighboring countries is not doing enough because of the Gulf countries exchange rate with the US dollar and the link to US monetary policies which create looser monetary policy just when inflation is picking up. With higher inflation and the fixed exchange rates of Gulf countries the inflation eats into the sm all earnings of foreign labor from South Asian countries and elewhere and money repatriated home brings less rupees or home currencies. In addition to all the waste and these distortions in the way wealth is shared with neighboring countries who send in labor, there is also the way this creates distortions in global finance. Mentioned here is the example of how in the last boom in petro economies of the Gulf the recycled petrodollars were loaned out to niave latin american borrowers whose countries borrowed more capital than they could possibly absorb or afford and ended up with a lost decade of growth when it became impossible to support so much overseas debt. The current boom for oil producing countries is already being cited as the cause of the huge global liquidity, that made for the availbility of cheap capital and kept interest rates too low for too long, leading to too much risk taking and taking on off too much debt by homeowners and companies in the USA. ...

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About $106 million comes to the Taliban from individuals in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Pakistan and oter Arab countries. A Taliban fighter receives $200 a month and the cost of financing the war for the Taliban is somethig it can do indefinitely from local souces, as it is not costing much. Opium is one source but even if this is cutoff the Taliban can continue fighting indefinitely using other sources, according to experts. The drug trad provides in the range of $70 million to $400 million ayear. And efforts to cut the flow of financing have not been successful.

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GM plans to bring 5 to 10 Cadillac models to China by 2016. It plans to build a factory for Cadillacs in China. Even as auto sales are slowing down in China in 2012, sales of luxury and premium cars are growing rapidly. Infiniti, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tata's Jaguar-Land Rover, and now GM are competing for sales to China's growing affluent class. According to IHS Global Insight, China's auto sales slowed to 2.5% growth in 2011, yet sales of premium car sales increased by 32%. With sales slowing in Europe and the U.S., car manufacturers are focussing on the luxury segment in China to boost profits. BMW's sales chief, Ian Robertson, says sales will slow in coming quarters from the 32% growth rate of 2011, but he still expects double digit growth for premium cars in future years. In making its large investments in China Ford executives said it expected a growth in China's car market of 5% over the next decade. BMW plans to increase production to 200,000 cars after opening its second plant in 2011, with capacity to ramp up to 300,000 a year....

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The market for oil field equipment is tight with 90% utilization, making it harder for larger oil producers to drill more oil wells for shale oil in the US. Large US shale oil producers reduced production when oil prices plunged and did not come back leaving smaller oil producers to increase production as prices went back up in 2021. Oil prices are now expected to reach $100 per barrel for the first time since 2014.  Saudis and Russia are not expected to increase production say experts. The possible Russian invasion of Ukraine and shortage of energy supplies is also a factor. Oil demand in the US and Europe has rebounded with milder covid-19 from Omicron variant and fewer lockdowns. Automobile use is also up in the US with November showing 12% increase in miles driven over the prior year, according to the Federal Highway Administration. Low inventories and resilient demand, and low spare capacity will keep prices surging to $100 from today's price of Brent crude oil at $89 in January 2022.   ...

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Washington Post Analysis and reporting shows Russian economy is now sensitive to cuts in oil purchases by India. Russian economy with $213 billion a year in the war effort would suffer from higher inflation and interest rates higher than current 18% if India cuts Russian oil purchases of about $119 billion a year. A shift may be already taking place as India buys more from Saudis, UAE and Iraq. Studies by CLSA cited in the Economic Times show India gaining only about $1 to 3 billion by buying Russian oil. India has much more to gain by shifting away from Russian oil. Russian inflation is at 9% and the economic growth is about 0.4%.  A further increase in interest rates from 18% in a war time economy could kill the civilian economy say experts in Russia the Washington Post has talked to. About 17% of Russian refineries production is removed by Ukrainian strikes on refineries in Russia, leading to higher prices for oil. More crude oil is being exported instead of refined product as a result. This explains why the US under president DJT decided to take the difficult step to deter India from Russian oil purchases as it would not have been able to get China to reduce its $136 billion Russian oil purchjases each year the way it could for India. This was done to end the war even though it is little understood in India.  ...

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The U.S. Education Department in its report on American universities says foreign funds were often not disclosed, comes with strings attached, and the contacts without transparency or oversight by the U.S. In one instance Cornell University initially failed to report to U.S. authorites more than $1.2 billion it received, says this WSJ report. The U.S. government is concerned that this kind of foreign money gives improper access to U.S. technology to foreign governments, including China. "The U.S. universities are a technological treasure trove in leading internationally competitive fields. For too long these institutions have provided an unprecedented level of access to foreign governments and their instrumentalities in an environment lacking transparency and oversight," says the Education Department report. The report went on to say that "institutional decision making is generally divorced from any sense of obligation to American national interests, security or values." In one instance it cited work that the WSJ says is identifiable as Georgetown University work with the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China deriving $2 million from the arrangement. WSJ says one institution identifiable as Cornell failed to document its institution in Qatar. Multiple schools received millions of dollars from Huawei whose equipment has become a security concern for the U.S. government. Schools being investigated include Harvard, Cornell, Georgetown, Texas A&M, MIT. After the Education Department crackdown U.S. Universities self-reported about $6.6 billion and an additional $1.05 billion recent period, from Qatar, China, Saudi Arabia, and U.A.E., says WSJ.  In other situations the Education Department report says China sought to "leverage its relationships with American universities to dominate a global market- in artificial intelligence." ...

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OPEC ministers debating 1 million barrel reduction in production. Disagreement over how cuts should be distributed among members. Saudi Arabia, although very influential, has remained silent due to upcoming mid-term US elections. OPEC output has grown to 30 million barrels a day, the highest level in over 25 years. Additional article titled "OPEC Approves Cut to Output by 1 Million Barrels" for similar insights.

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Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

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This report says the 1.5 million barrels a day is actually a 1.16 million barrels a day cut as Nigeria, Venezuela and Angola may just not cut production by their 341,000 barrels a day. To that Iran also has to cut its 200,000 barels a day. So the Saudis may end up having to do the cuts of about a million barrels a day with the Emirates and Kuwait. And Deutsche Bank says that it takes about 15 months for oil prices to stabilize after these cuts. So prices could keep falling well into 2009 as the recession deepens worldwide. Some anaysts say the Saudis ended up contributing to the global crisis through their minimal efforts to restrain oil prices or divert some of the petro dollars to new exploration, rather than to cheap liquidity that fueled the housing bubble.

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Toyota, GM, VW, BMW and Mercedes are targeting younger buyers. This means bringing more technology and internet devices into even basic models for tech savy younger demographic. It also means bringing prices down to where younger buyers can afford the cars, including luxury models of BMW, Mercedes and Audi VW. New models of BMW and Mercedes at the Detroit Auto Show will lease for under $300 within reach of young professionals.

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In an effort to fulfill a campaign pledge and yet not upset peace negotiations president Trump plans to go halfway by recognizing Jerusalem, while keeping the U.S. embassy in Tel Aviv. 

In a sign of much policy has changed since the Obama presidency, new information cited by NYT shows Trump working closely with premier Netayahu of Israel to prevent a vote on Israeli settlement policies. Mr. Obama had decided to proceed with a vote and had sharp differences with Netanyahu that dominated press coverage in the second term. See search term Netanyahu.  The issue is a delicate one because it depends say experts on how Trump frames his decision, does it recognize West Jerusalem, what does it say about its status as holy city, and about Palestinian claims to East Jerusalem. It is fraught with risks as Saudi Arabia is likely to say no to negotiations if the issue is framed to only recognize the Israeli position.

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The saving and spending habits of countries with sovereign wealth funds, Venezuela, Chile, Norway and Saudis contrasted.

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The Iraqi army takes over the Al Nuri Grand Mosque in Mosul, but what the mosque and the city itself lie in ruins. The minaret is gone in the debris, a shattered city is what is left from the Islamic State takeover of the city in 2014 and the eight month effort in 2017 by the Iraqi army to retake the city.   For more depth see links and groups or search- The problems of Mosul started with the openly sectarian administration of prime minister Nouri Maliki leading to alienation of Sunnis in Mosul. Corruption in the administration and weakness in the Iraqi army combined with alienation of Sunnis to create an opening for a militant group Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. As Iraqi units disintegrated Mosul fell, leading to a worsening of the refugee crisis in Syria and Iraq, increasing the flood of refugees to Europe, and the series of terrorist incidents in Paris, Berlin, London, rise of right wing groups in the European Union, in a chain reaction. The failure of the Obama administration to setup a "no fly zone" in Syria simply compounded the crisis into what it is today. At the root of the crisis - the failed efforts to reconcile Sunnis and Shiites in Iraq, and the sectarian conflicts in the region as a whole stretching from Saudi Arabia and Egypt to Iran.     ...

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Cars rated high for quality made by U.S. automakers include the Dodge Dart, Chevy Traverse, Buick Enclave and Ford Fusion, Dodge Durango, GMC Yukon, according to the 2013 Quality Index of Strategic Vision consulting firm. Foreign carmakers had Kia Soul, Honda Accord Crosstour, Volkswagen CC, Hyundai Genesis, Audi A4 sedan, Lexus LS, VW Tiguan. Strategic Vision uses 442 variable in its study and ties the customer response to emotional atributes such as "I Love it," a new approach which combines the conventional counting of reported problems with how people feel about the vehicle. This Total Quality Index is based on responses of 17,658 people who purchased 2013 models from September to November 2012.

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The Greens made speed limits on the autobahn a key plank in their program. The Social Democrats SPD party also agrees. The new proposed speed limit is 131 kms per hour or 81 mph. 
In 1952 speed limits were lifted on the autobahn in a reaction to the strict limits imposed in the Nazi period, and a sense of freedom in putting the past behind on the road.

The Greens party estimated 1.9 million less emissions of CO2 from the speed limit. The auto industry including Audi VW have not supported this change. Auto fatalities are 23 per 1000 kms of motorway in France compared to 30 in Germany. In sections of autobahn where there are speed limits in Germany the fatalities have dropped sharply. About 77% of Germans stay within the 81 mph speed limit which today is advised but not mandated.

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India's development of the India Middle East Corridor with rail and infrastructure links is a plan that is pursued with cooperation of Saudis, UAE, Kuwait and Gulf region. This is an economic development plan that seeks to invest in the entire South and West Asian region. Just as Europe after 2 wars has emerged from that with the French, Germans, Spain, Italy and Eastern Europe forming  the European Economic Community that later became the European Union, the Gulf states and India which faces the Gulf states across the Arabian Sea are seen as one region that can trade with the European bloc and the US on better terms. A lot of the investments that were wasted in wars are now being channelled into infrastructure development and regional development with resources of manpower from India and with assistance from the US. Le Monde should say that it is good for all- geopolitics and socialist or religious ideologies led to so many wars in the Middle East. Modi is from Gujarat where priorities are not religion- priorities are trade and the economy since the overseas trade from the 14th century. ...

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Pierre Razoux, a French historian provides this account of the Iran-Iraq war that lasted from 1980 to 1988, at a cost of 680,000 people killed and $1.1 trillion in war destruction and money diverted from the economy. In 1980 Saddam Hussein of Iraq launched the war by attacking Iran which had just come under the Ayatollah Khomeini with the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979. The war dragged on for 8 years with Khomeini persisting in the war. With U.S. and Saudi policy to increase production bringing the price of oil down from $30 to $10 designed to bring Iran and Iraq to the peace talks, as well as the Soviet Union to withdraw from Afghanistan, all three being major oil producers. The dollar also weakened by 37% during this period. The diplomatic isolation of the Khomeini regime made it more difficult for Iran to buy arms on credit than Iraq could, leading to the war ending with Iran finding it no longer possible to continue the human losses. The Carter administration, particularly with National Security Advisor Brzezinski, tilted towards Iraq to oppose Soviets in Afghanistan, and the Saudis also supported Iraq during the early period. Under president Reagan the U.S. began covert and direct assistance to Iraq to prevent an Iraqi defeat early in the war. Rumsfeld visited Baghdad in December 1983 and March 1984 to organize the U.S. effort to oppose Iran. This may have laid the seeds for future conflicts that lasted through the administrations of the elder and junior Bush. As Razoux points out the Revolutionary Guards became entrenched from this period in Iran's history, making it difficult for election process to work or elected governments to operate. 23 months following the end of that war in 1988 Saddam Hussein launched a war on Kuwait, leading to the U.S. led Gulf war and the entry of the U.S. into a ground combat role, which was followed by the invasion of Iraq under George Bush after 9/11 attacks. The twin wars in Afghanistan and Iraq are estimated to have cost the U.S. over 1 trillion dollars. The result today is largely the division on the ground into Shia regions under the Revolutionary Guards and the Shiite government in Baghdad, and Sunni regions led by Islamic State and autonomous Iraqi Sunni tribes, ignoring the Iran-Iraq boundaries set in the colonial period by the French and the British. In all the amount spent in the Khomeini-Saddam war of $ 1 trillion being about $2 trillion in today's money, and the $1 trillion spent by the U.S., means about $3 trillion has gone into the wars in this region. This comes at a time of deficits in government budgets in the U.S. and a deep recession in the U.S. and Europe. It also explains why the U.S. public is reluctant to take even the minor action such as giving a standoff "no-fly zone" protection to the rebels in Syria, and supported the Obama administration in its reluctance to keep even the basic military force in place to protect its diplomatic mission in Libya, where the cost would be small relative to earlier enlarged military missions under the two elder and junior Bush administrations. The result is that refugees are pouring into Europe from Syria and Libya, through Turkey. Turkey itself is host to millions of refugees in camps along its border. The vacuum and the withdrawal of the Obama administration from the region has led to the rise of Islamic State with covert assistance from Sunni regimes in the region to counteract the growing influence of Shiite Iran. It also may explain the Iranian people's support for the nuclear weapons effort through years of sanctions, leading finally to an agreement with the Obama administration that relaxes sanctions in exchange for a future possibility of acquiring nuclear weapons. Lost in the conflict is the Arab Spring of 2012-2013, with the Tunisian democracy the only surviving result of that movement for democracy and awakening among Arab peoples. The Reagan administration in its aggressive anti-Soviet position made large errors- including ignoring human rights abuses and use of chemical weapons in the Iran-Iraq war, by supporting Iraq and reversing position after Iraq's invasion of Kuwait, having a disastrous effect on the entire region decades later. Much of the Obama administration's reluctance for any action may stem from the U.S. role in this period and its consequences of protracted conflict. ...

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A steady decline in the price of Brent crude from $115 to $92 in the period from June to October 2014. Slow or no economic growth in Europe, and declining growth in China was the main reason. A cut in oil price by Saudi Arabia in September with lack of coordination in OPEC to control supplies when prices are declining, and increasing supplies from the U.S., provided additional basis for price declines. This price decline comes as large energy companies invested heavily in mega-projects to bring more oil supplies when prices were up to $128 by mid-2012. Consulting company EY estimate is that there are 163 such mega projects worth $1.1 trillion underway, most behind schedule and over budget. The projects were based on oil prices being over $100. Oil field development costs are increasing rapidly. Douglas Westwood, a consulting firm, estimate is that productivity of upstream capital spending has fallen by a factor of 5 since 2000, declining by 5% a year, as oilfield equipment and services demand exceeds supply. Greater technological sophistication also adds to cost such as Shell's Nobel Bully platform for deep sea drilling. See link- Noble Bully. Oil majors are now cutting spending, and some planned big projects are on hold. About $300 billion in assets may be up for sale. Shell plans to cut spending by 20% in 2014, Exxon and Chevron 5-6%. Shale oil projects in America need about $57 to be profitable with an internal rate of return of 10%, by one estimate. Yet this is an average and does not reflect differing producer costs. This estimate does not reflect the high cost producers, some of whom need closer to $110....