Chancellor Merkel and listening to German public opinion reflected in state elections of 2016

09/20/2016

Here we argue that contrary to general media coverage in the NYT, WSJ, Economist, and German media, a year from now Merkel may be seen more positively. This is because Merkel has always listened to public opinion carefully, and has told the German public frankly what happened- that she and the German government were caught unprepared in the refugee crisis that came up in summer 2015.

Linked Articles

German politics is turning into a six-party system

The Economist 09/19/2016

DW.COM 09/19/2016

Udo Bauer / Ksb

The 1976 Montreal Olympics, the 2004 Athens Olympics, the 2014 Sochi Olympics and the Rio Olympics- decades long debt hangovers and costs growing from the $1+ billion in Montreal to $50+ billion in Sochi

08/24/2016

Developing and developed countries alike have seen the cost of the Olympics as a huge burden. Many countries or cities that committed to hosting the Olympic games during boom years were facing economic hard times by the time of the games. Corruption and mismanagement of public funds, overspending and cost overruns added to the problems. Citizens uproar caused cities such as Boston and Oslo to withdraw bids for the Olympics. The Olympics appears to be a costly way to show off a country, and raises questions about better allocation of funds in other directions, especially when upward mobility is a problem for the middle and working class, countries have other infrastructure needs, and neglected basic needs in education, healthcare, public services.

Linked Articles

The 40-year hangover: how the 1976 Olympics nearly broke Montreal

The Guardian 07/06/2016

The New York Times 08/23/2016

Michael Powell

Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession

08/16/2016

The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.

Linked Articles

Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016

DW.COM 08/15/2016

Bernd Riegert / Db

The Telegraph 08/04/2016

Szu Ping Chan

Speaker Paul Ryan's House seat in Janesville, Wisconsin- improving economy in a U.S. midwestern factory town and the debate on trade, help for working class families

08/10/2016

The unemployment rate in Janesville, Wisconsin drops to 4.4% in May 2016, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. It was over 9% following the closing of the GM plant and the recession from the 2008 financial crisis. A working class town Janesville was hit hard by the closing of the GM plant in 2008. Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post describes the impact of losing about 5000 jobs at the GM plant, and the problems typical of most manufacturing dependent towns. Throughout the period since being first elected to Congress in 1998 Ryan has continued to be able to get elected on the basis of faith, family and public service, even though some of his policies may not have helped the poor and elderly or laid off workers. Ryan voted for rescuing the auto industry and worked hard to keep the GM plant, and listens to his constituents, and as the economy recovered by 2016 won easily in this old industrial midwestern town. His influence in national politics gives Janesville an opportunity to be heard, as it tackles problems common to many midwestern towns in the U.S.

Linked Articles

Could Paul Ryan’s ideas help his struggling home town? - The Washington Post

Washington Post 08/19/2012

Amy Goldstein, Amy, Goldstein

The Guardian 08/10/2016

David Smith

Angela Merkel's leadership during the immigration and Brexit crises by July 2016- increasing support for the European Union in Germany and personal support up to 59 percent in Deutschland trending poll

07/08/2016

By offering "calm and composed" leadership during the Brexit crisis, and being flexible in dealing with genuine concerns about immigration in Germany, Merkel shows Europe a better way than fractious British, French or American politics during a critical period when good responsible leadership is missing.

Linked Articles

Poll: Brexit vote boosts support for EU in Germany | News | DW.COM | 08.07.2016

DW.COM 07/08/2016

Wall Street Journal 12/21/2015

Letters To The Editor, Letters, To, The, Editor

Public focus on good governance, corruption and the rule of law- the situation in Mexico and Brazil in 2016

06/10/2016

The Worker's Party in Brazil and the PRI have seen a sharp decline in popularity by 2016 with public discontent over governance, corruption and the rule of law.

Linked Articles

Mexico’s Ruling Party Loses Gubernatorial Races in Several States

WSJ 06/10/2016

New York Times 05/12/2016

Andrew Jacobs, Andrew, Jacobs

Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs

03/08/2016

By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.

Linked Articles

How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire

Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016

Bob Davis, Bob, Davis

Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016

Holman W. Jenkins Jr., Holman, W., Jenkins, Jr.

The Chinese market in 2015 and pitfalls for Yum Brands and its KFC, Pizza Hut stores in China

10/21/2015

Rapid growth and then a public scare with media reports of falling quality standards hurt KFC outlets. Local Chinese and Taiwanese brands offer more options at the higher and lower ends of the price range. Other European competitors partnering with local Chinese companies offer better value and quality upscale hurting Pizza Hut stores. And suddenly the whole landscape has changed for Yum Brands in China. It shows the Chinese market is no place for the complacent, that the discriminating tastes of consumers and search for healthier alternatives is taking place in China, India and other developing countries, just as much as it is in the U.S.

Linked Articles

China Isn’t the Easy Market It Once Was for Fast-Food Chains

Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015

Laurie Burkitt, Laurie, Burkitt

Wall Street Journal 10/21/2015

Julie Jargon, Julie, Jargon

Partisan opinion and the Pew Research polls on how U.S. public opinion views the July 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran

09/09/2015

Increasing skepticism about the deal's provisions shown in Pew Research Center polls taken in July and Sept 2015.

Linked Articles

Senate Democrats vs. voters on Iran [Updated] - The Washington Post

Washington Post 09/09/2015

Jennifer Rubin, Jennifer, Rubin

Washington Post 09/09/2015

Dana Milbank, Dana, Milbank

German experts and public opinion who see Greece's exit from the eurozone as the best thing for the euro in July 2015 (1)

07/07/2015

Chancellor Merkel's statement that the the Euro is the EU, now place more emphasis on building a strong future for the euro. Experts in Germany believe the euro is better off without Greece by July 2015. As the WSJ editorial points out political contagion is now a bigger threat to the euro, with euro skeptic parties joining populist parties with no committment to the common currency and its basic rules.

Linked Articles

German Finance Chief’s Hard Line on Greece Limits Angela Merkel’s Room to Maneuver

Wall Street Journal 07/09/2015

Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski

New York Times 07/07/2015

Jochen Bittner, Jochen, Bittner

Errors made by the IMF, Syriza Tsipras far left government, leading to the third bailout program of 2015 for Greece

07/06/2015

Just when the first signs of growth in the economy were taking place in 2014 the IMF held back on a 7.2 billion euro payment to Greece which would have increased liquidity to the private sector for growth. The IMF hope to gain leverage with a future Syriza far left government. The first half of 2015 led to economic anxiety in Greece with a failed negotiating strategy of Syriza far left government focussing only on the debt and not on the economy. The damage led to about 85 billion in addtional financing needed following the closing of Greece's banking system in July 2015.

Linked Articles

IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief

Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015

Ian Talley, Ian, Talley

New York Times 07/06/2015

Gikas Hardouvelis, Gikas, Hardouvelis

Hard realities- what a Greek exit from the eurozone in 2015 could do for Greece and for the European Union

04/29/2015

The Economist says Greece could end up becoming a failed state at the doorstep of the European Union. With the major parties losing support extreme parties on the right and left would increase support. The economy of Greece would suffer serious damage. As prices have declined by 16% with no surge in exports, a devaluation of the drachma would not be of much help. Argentina went through a period of severe hardship following the default on the currency. Greece, says the Economist, may be engaging in a strategy to extract concessions from the EU by waiting till the last minute. Yet this strategy has its drawbacks because of the damage to Greece's economy in the process, with the slight growth under the Samaras administration turning into a recession with the 6 months of the Syriza government in 2015.

Linked Articles

What Greece Faces if It Defaults

New York Times 04/29/2015

Uki GoÑi, Uki, GoÑi

Economist 06/20/2015

Economist.Com

What Greece won in the negotiations and what Greece lost in the failure of talks with the EU, capital controls, closing of banks and the referendum on July 5, 2015

02/27/2015

Major concessions were won by Greece on the most important issues of the surplus, and the size of the public sector with high unemployment. Compromise was being reached on the value added taxes and age for getting pensions, next down the list. Next on the list were pension cuts which undoubtedly would hurt pensioners but in the larger picture of the economy would come after the size of the surplus and dateline, and the size of public sector. The size of these cuts is small compared to the cost of 60 billion euros from the damage done to the economy, and the alternatives for pensioners and the rest of the country. under bank closure. For the EU this was seen as part of pension reforms and for left leaning Syriza compromising on behalf of pensioners.

Linked Articles

IMF Raises Referendum Stakes With Call for More Aid for Greece and Debt Relief

Wall Street Journal 07/03/2015

Viktoria Dendrinou, Viktoria, Dendrinou, Nektaria Stamouli And Ian Talley, Nektaria, Stamouli, And, Ian, Talley

New York Times 02/27/2015

Paul Krugman, Paul, Krugman