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The moderating influence of business executives Gary Cohn, Wilbur Ross and Muilenburg on president Trump- change in policy on NAFTA, Mexico, China and Export Import Bank
04/14/2017
Business executives help moderate the campaign positions taken by Donald Trump during the first 100 days of his presidency, putting him closer to the traditional view on China, Mexico, NATO and Russia.
Linked Articles
Donald Trump’s Recent Policy Reversals Reflect Business Influence
WSJ 04/14/2017
Within Trump’s inner circle, a moderate voice captures the president’s earWashington Post 04/14/2017
Tensions between Germany and Russia in 2016-2017
12/11/2016
Linked Articles
Vladimir Putin: For Trump and Against Merkel | ZEIT ONLINE
ZEIT ONLINE 08/13/2016
Germany's Wolfgang Schäuble: Prepared to Raise Pressure on RussiaWall Street Journal 05/24/2014
Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs
03/08/2016
By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.
Linked Articles
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire
Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Can Trump Start a Trade War?Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Elvira Nabiullina, head of Russia's central bank, and Russia's response to the collapse in oil prices that helped avoid effects on the economy
02/09/2015
Exceptional performance by an exceptional economy minister and banker. Elvira Nabiullina's humility, drive and policies help shape Russia's careful management of the collapse in oil prices.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/19/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
Russia and global financial markets in 2014-2015- a disconnect between an economy connected to the global economy and separation from a postwar order of international cooperation within a global economy
01/29/2015
Linked Articles
Stopping Putin Without Firing a Shot
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2015
From Russia With No LoveWall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Warnings at a banking conference in Moscow in October 2014, and the ruble on the brink of collapse on Dec. 17, 2014
10/02/2014
The central bank head, Nabiullina, the Economy minister, Ulyukayev, and the head of Russia's largest bank Sberbank, German Gref, all expressed skepticism about president Putin's confidence in economic policy at a banking conference in Moscow in Oct. 2014. The architect of Russia's finances in the first and second terms of Putin, Alexei Kudrin, expressed alarm in Nov.-Dec. 2014 about lack of confidence in economic measures as the ruble took a hit from lower oil prices. The Putin administration made errors in handling economic policy leading to the ruble going to the brink of collapse by Dec. 17, 2014. This was preceded by miscalculations in policy towards the European Union and Germany leading to a loss of international confidence, and deteriorating relations with OPEC's leading member Saudi Arabia leading to OPEC's production decisions hurting Russia.
Linked Articles
Russia Introduces Measures to Calm Economic Jitters
New York Times 12/17/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less CertainNew York Times 10/02/2014
The Baltic Republics and Ukraine- frontlines in the confrontation with Russia's Putin (2)
09/03/2014
Linked Articles
Ukrainian President Sets Sights on Closer E.U. Ties
New York Times 09/25/2014
Obama Pledges NATO Backing for Baltic AlliesWall Street Journal 09/03/2014
Russia and "dirty money" flowing into the West, including the City of London, hurting the average Russian and the Russian economy- the role of western sanctions in limiting this flow
07/22/2014
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/22/2014
Putinism Thrives on Dirty MoneyWall Street Journal 07/22/2014
Putting together the basis for a common approach of Germany and the U.S. to Russia
04/18/2014
Linked Articles
Twin Shocks Shake Foundation of German Power
New York Times 04/18/2014
In Cold War Echo, Obama Strategy Writes Off PutinNew York Times 04/19/2014
France's Francois Hollande and Matteo Renzi of Italy call for lower taxes and relaxing austerity drive in 2014-2015
02/26/2014
Linked Articles
New French Premier Revisits Deficit
Wall Street Journal 04/03/2014
Renzi's Italian JobWall Street Journal 02/26/2014
Russia as emerging market (1) - declining currency and stagflation
01/17/2014
Declining growth characterizes all emerging markets. High reserves in Russia and Brazil separate the two countries from Argentina and Turkey where foreign exchange reserves are insufficient to prevent sharp declines in the currrency. Russia also has a low budget deficit. The foreign investment climate in Russia and India has deteriorated reducing capital inflows for modernizing the economy in India and diversifying the economy in Russia.
Linked Articles
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Russia Is Facing Stagflation, Central Banker SaysWall Street Journal 01/17/2014
Russia and fears of stagflation (low growth and high inflation) in 2014-2015
09/19/2013
Linked Articles
Russia Looks to Borrow to Plug Funding Gap
Wall Street Journal 09/19/2013
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble SlideWall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Rex Tillerson of ExxonMobil as Secretary of State and U.S. relations with Russia
12/15/2016
Linked Articles
Rex Tillerson’s Company, Exxon, Has Billions at Stake Over Sanctions on Russia
The New York Times 12/13/2016
Under Rex Tillerson, Exxon Mobil Forged Its Own Path AbroadThe New York Times 12/13/2016
Russia's hacking and the U.S. Presidential electon of 2016
12/11/2016
Linked Articles
Republicans ready to launch wide-ranging probe of Russia, despite Trump’s stance
Washington Post 12/09/2016
Why the US fears Russia is hacking its presidential election - BBC NewsBBC News 10/11/2016
The standoff between Saudi Arabia and Russia/ Iran that created the prospect of low oil prices for the long term - (1) Saudis and Russian resilience in the face of low oil prices
01/25/2016
Linked Articles
Saudi Arabia Keeps Pumping Oil, Despite Financial and Political Risks
New York Times 01/27/2016
Russian Oil: Output Grows as Prospects ShrinkWall Street Journal 01/25/2016
The 39% drop in Russia's auto sales in 2015 with the economic crisis- withdrawal of GM and other manufacturers
02/10/2015
Linked Articles
GM to Close Russian Assembly Plant
Wall Street Journal 03/19/2015
Russian Car Sales Skid Lower Amid Economic GloomWall Street Journal 02/10/2015
The cost of the crisis to Russia exceeds $200 billion- a story of wasted opportunities to diversify away from oil and gas and integrate fully into the competitive global economy
01/29/2015
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/29/2015
Russia Lifts Crisis Cost EstimateWall Street Journal 01/29/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
The Baltic Republics and Ukraine- frontlines in the confrontation with Russia's Putin (1)
09/25/2014
Linked Articles
Ukrainian President Sets Sights on Closer E.U. Ties
New York Times 09/25/2014
Lithuania’s president: ‘Russia is terrorizing its neighbors and using terrorist methods’ - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/25/2014
The West and policies towards Russia- (2) Steinmeier and Merkel on Germany's policy in 2015-2016
08/23/2014
Linked Articles
Merkel Seeks to Defuse Ukraine Crisis as Convoy Returns to Russia
Wall Street Journal 08/23/2014
Frank-Walter Steinmeier Meets With Vladimir PutinNew York Times 11/19/2014
Russia's effort to fight western sanctions in 2015, Euroskeptic parties and the European Union
04/25/2014
Linked Articles
Russia Wields Aid and Ideology Against West to Fight Sanctions
New York Times 06/07/2015
What Putin Is Costing RussiaWall Street Journal 04/25/2014
Ukraine's economic crisis during the conflict with Russia- 2014-2016
03/28/2014
Linked Articles
IMF Reaches Deal to Provide up to $18 Billion to Ukraine
Wall Street Journal 03/28/2014
Ukraine’s Hryvnia Plunges After Rate RiseWall Street Journal 02/07/2015
The events in Lviv and in the Square in Kiev Feb-20-21, 2014, that led to the collapse of the Yakunovych government in Ukraine
02/22/2014
A parallel diplomatic effort that may have been driven by the events in Lviv and in the Square and underestimated the depth of feeling in Ukraine and the organization of the protest movement.
Linked Articles
As His Fortunes Fell in Ukraine, a President Clung to Illusions
New York Times 02/23/2014
European Ministers Brokered Ukraine Political CompromiseWall Street Journal 02/22/2014
Putin and the excessive cost of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics in Russia approaching $51 billion
11/05/2013
The need for infrastructure spending in other parts of Russia, for R&D development and making the transition away from dependence on oil revenues, as competing needs for capital. This also happens as currency values are declining for emerging markets and it is increasingly difficult to attract foreign investment in 2014, leading to slowing growth with high inflation.
Linked Articles
Putin's Olympian Construction Zone
Wall Street Journal 11/05/2013
Putin’s Olympic Fever DreamNew York Times 01/22/2014
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