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Economic losses of 3% in GDP per head with Brexit and 8% with no-deal Brexit leaving Britons poorer
12/01/2018
As the Brexit option becomes clear as a hit to ordinary Britons and the British economy prime minister Theresa May takes her deal to the British parliament for a vote. Most opinion says it will be rejected, if not rejected outright by Conservatives and Labour MP's. A second vote may be taken. The Opposition Labour Party prepares for a new election with a divided government.
Linked Articles
The Economist 11/30/2018
Don’t write off the prime minister’s deal just yetThe Economist 11/30/2018
Is the growth boom that supports the case for 2017 tax cuts skewed to higher income Americans based on evidence?- views of Greg Ip (WSJ) and Krugman (NYT)
12/20/2017
Linked Articles
Corporate Tax Cut as Growth Elixir? Foreign Experience Suggests Caution
WSJ 05/01/2017
Opinion | Passing Through to CorruptionThe New York Times 12/18/2017
Brexit as an opportunity for bringing fresh breath of air to the idea of Europe
01/20/2017
Linked Articles
Brexit Presents Europe with Opportunity for Improvement - SPIEGEL ONLINE
SPIEGEL ONLINE 06/24/2016
Opinion: Brexit - a clean break and new start? | Opinion | DW.COM | 17.01.2017DW.COM 01/17/2017
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (2) the British economy and the Bank of England's stimulus effort to avoid a recession
08/16/2016
The stimulus action of the Bank of England in August 2016 was designed to avert a recession in Britain. The Bank of England estimates that even with the stimulus the Brexit move will lead to a 1% drop in economic growth every year for 3 years as compared to staying in the European Union. The British public is weary of the austerity programs for 7 years under finance minister Osborne. if higher growth under Brexit turns out to be an illusion as the Bank of England forecasts show, there would be reason for much reflection on the meaning of the vote- seeing it as a rejection of the Cameron-Osborne government in favor of a government more in tune with the interests of working class people under Theresa May.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
Bank of England unveils four-pronged stimulus package in bid to avoid Brexit recessionThe Telegraph 08/04/2016
Donald Trump and lack of transparency with undisclosed tax returns
08/16/2016
Linked Articles
How Much Does Donald Trump Pay in Taxes? It Could Be Zero
The New York Times 08/11/2016
Mark Sanford: I Support You, Donald Trump. Now Release Your Tax Returns.The New York Times 08/15/2016
Pope Francis's roots in Buenos Aires, Argentina, and the message of humility, a humbler Church and concern for the poor, that resonate in the U.S. and around the world
09/18/2015
Linked Articles
A Humble Pope, Challenging the World
New York Times 09/18/2015
Poll: Americans widely admire Pope Francis, but his church less so - The Washington PostWashington Post 09/20/2015
2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.
09/09/2015
The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015
Jeb Bush Tax Plan Makes Forays Into PopulismNew York Times 09/09/2015
Hillary Clinton's plan to change the way the capital gains tax works to encourage long term investors
07/27/2015
Under Hillary Clinton's plan the lower rates for capital gains tax would be introduced with a sliding scale at the highest tax bracket of 39.6%, with the rate gradually declining in year 4, and the rate not reaching the current rate of 23.6% (20% plus a 3.6% surcharge) till year 6 following the investment. Clinton calls it a way to restrain "quarterly capitalism," disincentivize "cut and run shareholders," and incentivize investors "to build companies." One unintended effect of this could also be the shift away from investments that do not support improving productivity levels, to investments that have a longer horizon and have a material effect on productivity growth. Especially considering the low productivity growth improvements in the last decade, as productivity growth will be needed to break out of a period of stagnant wages.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 07/29/2015
Hillary Clinton Aim Is to Thwart Quick Buck on Wall StreetNew York Times 07/27/2015
The women's vote in 2016 U.S. presidential election and the antiincumbency mood of 2016- risks for Clinton running a cautious campaign and big risks for Trump
06/11/2015
Hillary Clinton needs a vigorous campaign away from the cautious instincts of the early days of her campaign, as Trump seeks to deflect criticism by attacking Hillary Clinton, say experts. The risks are high for Trump if the effort backfires alienating the vast majority of women, including Sanders supporters, independents and traditional Republican moderates. This is one of the wild twists of the campoaign of 2016- a candidate apparently making sexist comments to attract the support of white women voter- and men.
Linked Articles
Hillary Needs More Than the Obama Coalition
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2015
Donald Trump’s Gender-Based Attacks on Hillary Clinton Have Calculated RiskNew York Times 04/28/2016
The puzzle of U.S. job gains in 2014-2015 with tepid wage gains- a result of labor market slack not reflected in 5.5% unemployment rate, low productivity, low investment
03/07/2015
Linked Articles
Sluggish Productivity Hampers Wage Gains
Wall Street Journal 03/07/2015
Brisk Jobs Growth Puts Focus on FedWall Street Journal 03/07/2015
The response of financial markets to Russian intervention in Ukraine 2014-2015, as arms aid to Ukraine is seen as not a good option
02/11/2015
Linked Articles
New York Times 02/11/2015
Stopping Putin Without Firing a ShotWall Street Journal 02/11/2015
Russia and global financial markets in 2014-2015- a disconnect between an economy connected to the global economy and separation from a postwar order of international cooperation within a global economy
01/29/2015
Linked Articles
Stopping Putin Without Firing a Shot
Wall Street Journal 02/11/2015
From Russia With No LoveWall Street Journal 01/29/2015
The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015
12/18/2014
A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.
Linked Articles
Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation
Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin Seeks to Reassure on EconomyWall Street Journal 12/18/2014
Do tax cut benefits go mainly to the 10% of Americans who own 84% of the stocks- evidence of corporate buybacks vs increasing wages/new capital investment for growth to help the middle class
03/01/2018
Linked Articles
Boom in Share Buybacks Renews Question of Who Wins From Tax Cuts
WSJ 03/01/2018
Tax Cuts Benefit the Ultra Rich, but Not the Merely RichThe New York Times 12/19/2017
The Trump 2017 Budget with $2.1 trillion counted twice and rosy estimates- accounting error, shifting priorities and economic-political risks
05/23/2017
Linked Articles
Donald Trump’s Balanced Budget Goal Rests on Questionable Math
WSJ 05/23/2017
Trump’s Budget Seeks Cuts to Taxes, Safety-Net ProgramsWSJ 05/23/2017
The 1976 Montreal Olympics, the 2004 Athens Olympics, the 2014 Sochi Olympics and the Rio Olympics- decades long debt hangovers and costs growing from the $1+ billion in Montreal to $50+ billion in Sochi
08/24/2016
Developing and developed countries alike have seen the cost of the Olympics as a huge burden. Many countries or cities that committed to hosting the Olympic games during boom years were facing economic hard times by the time of the games. Corruption and mismanagement of public funds, overspending and cost overruns added to the problems. Citizens uproar caused cities such as Boston and Oslo to withdraw bids for the Olympics. The Olympics appears to be a costly way to show off a country, and raises questions about better allocation of funds in other directions, especially when upward mobility is a problem for the middle and working class, countries have other infrastructure needs, and neglected basic needs in education, healthcare, public services.
Linked Articles
The 40-year hangover: how the 1976 Olympics nearly broke Montreal
The Guardian 07/06/2016
Rio Games Highlight Problems With the Olympic ModelThe New York Times 08/23/2016
Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (1) the pro stay vote in Ireland and Scotland
08/16/2016
Theresa May, Britain's prime minister, is deeply committed to the idea of the union of England with Scotland and Ireland. Invoking Article 50 of Lisbon Treaty, a step necessary for Brexit, would also lead to Scotland's ruling Scottish National Party to initiate plans for a second referendum for Scottish independence, as Scotland votd to remain in the European Union. The issue of Ireland and Northern Ireland's vote to remain in the EU would also lead to serious repercussions. In short it will be hard to separate the leave vote in England from the stay vote in Scotland and Ireland, as it will be difficult for most British people to imagine a England without a British identity. If the referendum had asked the second question "Do you still vote leave if this means the end of Britain or the United Kingdom?" the vote could have turned out differently for nationalist voters.
Linked Articles
Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016
DW.COM 08/15/2016
No return to border controls in Northern Ireland, UK PM May says | News | DW.COM | 25.07.2016DW.COM 07/25/2016
The dangers in the Trump position of high tariffs for the U.S. and global economy- instead of higher growth consensus of estimates point to U.S. and global recession and layoffs
03/25/2016
Linked Articles
Five myths about trade - The Washington Post
Washington Post 04/10/2016
How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could BackfireWall Street Journal 03/25/2016
Jeremy Corbyn and the proposal in 2015 for a National Investment Bank in Britain to make investments in education, health services and infrastructure
09/11/2015
A new leader of the Labor Party in Britain proposes a National Investment Bank. Some of the funding would come from an estimated 20 billion pounds of tax debt, 20 billion pounds in tax evasion, and 80 billion pounds in tax avoidance, according to experts in the Labor Party. Corbyn says he would reverse the introduction of fees for university education by previous Labor governments and has publicly apologized for the fees. The fees plan would cost about 7.1 billion pounds and be paid for by a 2.5% increase in the corporate tax, slower deficit reduction or increase in the insurance tax, says Corbyn. Germany continues to provide free university education.
Linked Articles
Leftist Jeremy Corbyn elected leader of Britain’s Labour Party - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/12/2015
Jeremy Corbyn, Unlikely Front-Runner for Labour Leader, Poised to Win Party VoteNew York Times 09/11/2015
The huge contrast between Chancellor Merkel's approach and the approach of Obama and Cameron to the Syrian refugee crisis
08/20/2015
The German chancellor will be remembered in history for the way she handled the Syrian refugee crisis in 2015, and for the courage to say, "if Europe fails on the question of refugees, its close connection with universal civil rights will be destroyed." Reports in the Guardian newspaper say Germany is likely to accept about 1 million refugees in 2015. Chancellor Merkel says about 800,000 refugees will be admitted in 2015. Contrast this with the UK reports the Guardian which has 166 refugees admitted to the UK, and reports in the WSJ that about 1500 refugees have been admitted to the U.S.. Merkel has taken on the challenge in a spirited way as Europe faces anti-immigrant sentiment and rallied German society in a way that is remarkable. The withdrawal of the Obama administration from the Middle East led to the collapse of the fragile situation in Libya, Iraq and Syria, and the unravelling of these countries, leading to the current refugee crisis with about half of the Syrian population dislocated and large parts of the population of Libya, Iraq, and Kurdish regions dislocated.
Linked Articles
U.S. Pressed to Take More Syrian Refugees
Wall Street Journal 09/05/2015
Why some German universities will educate refugees for free - The Washington PostWashington Post 08/20/2015
Errors made by the IMF, Syriza Tsipras far left government, leading to the third bailout program of 2015 for Greece
07/06/2015
Just when the first signs of growth in the economy were taking place in 2014 the IMF held back on a 7.2 billion euro payment to Greece which would have increased liquidity to the private sector for growth. The IMF hope to gain leverage with a future Syriza far left government. The first half of 2015 led to economic anxiety in Greece with a failed negotiating strategy of Syriza far left government focussing only on the debt and not on the economy. The damage led to about 85 billion in addtional financing needed following the closing of Greece's banking system in July 2015.
Linked Articles
IMF Warns Eurozone That Greece Needs Far More Debt Relief
Wall Street Journal 07/15/2015
How to Undo the Damage in GreeceNew York Times 07/06/2015
Ban on election advertising on commercial television and radio in Britain and strict limits of $29.5 million for each party in general elections- contrast with the U.S.
05/02/2015
Britain disproves the popular belief that an ever upward trajectory for election spending is inevitable. The 2010 general election in Britain cost half that of the 1880 general election in 2002 prices, say researchers. In the U.S. spending has increased to the point where candidates may be spending more time fund raising than talking about the issues. The 2016 presidential election in the U.S. is estimated to lead to $10 billion in spending. India, Brazil, and other developing countries face a similar situation.
Linked Articles
Britain’s Campaign Finance Laws Leave Parties With Idle Money
New York Times 05/04/2015
F.E.C. Can’t Curb 2016 Election Abuse, Commission Chief SaysNew York Times 05/02/2015
What Greece won in the negotiations and what Greece lost in the failure of talks with the EU, capital controls, closing of banks and the referendum on July 5, 2015
02/27/2015
Major concessions were won by Greece on the most important issues of the surplus, and the size of the public sector with high unemployment. Compromise was being reached on the value added taxes and age for getting pensions, next down the list. Next on the list were pension cuts which undoubtedly would hurt pensioners but in the larger picture of the economy would come after the size of the surplus and dateline, and the size of public sector. The size of these cuts is small compared to the cost of 60 billion euros from the damage done to the economy, and the alternatives for pensioners and the rest of the country. under bank closure. For the EU this was seen as part of pension reforms and for left leaning Syriza compromising on behalf of pensioners.
Linked Articles
IMF Raises Referendum Stakes With Call for More Aid for Greece and Debt Relief
Wall Street Journal 07/03/2015
What Greece WonNew York Times 02/27/2015
Resilence of the Russian economy in 2015-2016 compared to other emerging markets- (1) the decision to let the ruble float in Nov. 2014
02/09/2015
Linked Articles
Russia and Turkey Show Oil Prices Aren’t Everything
Wall Street Journal 01/25/2016
Ruble’s Fall Tests Governor of Russia’s Central BankNew York Times 02/09/2015
Looking back at Hong Kong and China today and yesterday- China in 1842 and in 1945, nationalism and commercial interests of foreign powers
01/09/2015
A wariness with foreign powers in China stems from the influences left behind from the British commercial interests and the Japanese invasion of China. Compared to that period, the period of collaboration on an equal footing and playing field is is a short and recent one that has taken place for just three decades 1985-2015. Fears that the accelerated development in China could slow down without a strong central government, combine with the awareness of the need for western technology and open communications in today's global economy to accelerate the development, create in the Chinese mind a problem that needs to be tackled carefully to continue progress. Awareness of the huge inequalities and corruption in the rush towards modernization, need to tackle extensive contamination of air and water, and need for social security and healthcare for an aging population create a new urgency for careful policy making to sustain progress.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 01/12/2015
‘China 1945,’ by Richard BernsteinNew York Times 01/09/2015
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