Why initiating Brexit by invoking the Lisbon Treaty's Article 50 could go into 2017, or even past 2020 into new general elections- (3) the inclusion of key "Leave" supporters in Theresa May's cabinet

08/16/2016

By including a key member of the "Leave" vote, Mr Boris Johnson, former Mayor of London, in the cabinet as Foreign Secretary, Theresa May has given herself a lot more flexibility in tackling the Brexit issue so that it does not hurt the British economy. It would be hard for a key cabinet member not to be part of the team position on issues, and for the team to ignore the Bank of England's role in steadying the economy. By making the issues important to working class people in Britain her priorities Theresa May also lays the ground for everyone in Britain to gain moving forward as the economy recovers.

Linked Articles

Wait and see: Theresa May is in no hurry on Brexit | Europe | DW.COM | 15.08.2016

DW.COM 08/15/2016

Bernd Riegert / Db

The New York Times 07/13/2016

Donald Trump's proposal for 45% tariff on China's exports to the U.S.- how a policy of bringing jobs home could lead to the loss of 1 million U.S. jobs

03/08/2016

By damaging the international trading system including with allies such a Canada, Britain, France and Germany, the result of a downward spiral through higher tariffs in other countries, could end up costing the U.S. 1 million jobs. Under such a system the U.S. would lose many of the advantages of its booming tech sector, its tech driven global advantages in many industries, without signifcant gains in low cost imports such as clothing which would simply migrate to other countries such as India. The problem of worker wage stagnation in the U.S., and loss of jobs in certain sectors, is very real, but this is the wrong way to tackle the problem. China is already moving towards a consumer driven economy. Economists show that trade with Mexico would be seriously hurt both ways, creating more pressure of migrants at the border under such proposals as a 45% tariff and its indirect effect on Mexico, when the actual fact is that net migration from Mexico is the lowest it has ben in decades. Politics can do strange things as when two senators Smoot and Hawley from agricultural states Utah and Oregon, at the head of important committees in the U.S. Congress pushed and passed legislation for a 60% tariff in 1930 for the industrial sector they had no idea about. When Smoot and Hawley lost reelection in 1932 they left behind a lot of damage, especially for the farmers and workers they thought they were fighting for.

Linked Articles

How Trump’s Hard Line on Trade Could Backfire

Wall Street Journal 03/25/2016

Bob Davis, Bob, Davis

Wall Street Journal 03/08/2016

Holman W. Jenkins Jr., Holman, W., Jenkins, Jr.

2016 U.S. presidential candidate Jeb Bush's Tax Plan that spells out details, and takes a shot at 4% growth for restoring lost social and economic mobility in the U.S.

09/09/2015

The efforts to wrestle with the deficit in 2011-2012 led to a vigorous debate on changing the tax code, yet political leaders failed to take up new ideas or spell out the details. Jeb Bush, with advisors Martin Feldstein and Kevin Warsh, takes the unconventional approach of putting in the details, and taking up ideas such as the idea of limiting itemized deductions to 2% of adjusted gross income proposed by Feldstein in that debate. On the $2.1 trillion in income held overseas by U.S. companies Bush proposes 8.75% tax paid over 10 years. On business investment he proposes capital investment be allowed to be deducted in full immediately. It is based on the idea that business investment can drive a vigorous recovery, that workers bear 50% of the burden of higer taxes through sluggish wage growth. It levels the playing field for debt and equity capital, removing "carried interest" provision, as a lesson from the excessive leverage taken by financial institutions in the past.

Linked Articles

The Bush Growth Plan

Wall Street Journal 09/10/2015

Editorial

New York Times 09/09/2015

Alan Rappeport, Alan, Rappeport, Matt Flegenheimer, Matt, Flegenheimer

The miscalculations and missteps of Russian president Putin in 2014 leading to a major crisis for the Russian economy in 2015

12/18/2014

A major miscalculation was totally misjudging Merkel and post-war German public opinion about policies that remind people about the period between the two World Wars- this is anathema to Germans who see the European Union as a way to build a new and different Europe. The other miscalculation was on how a foreign adventurous policy in Syria would affect Sunni world opinion, in particular Saudi Arabia. Just as Brezhnev took Russia into Afghanistan where Russia had no vital interest leading to eventual Soviet collapse, Putin risked alienating a key member in OPEC pricing moves and hurting Russia's economic interest. By not listening to Kudrin, the head of Sberbank, and other economic advisers from the first and second terms of the Putin-Medvedev administrations, Putin opened the door to two years of serious missteps, risking the very real accomplishments of the first and second term of creating a stable growing Russian economy with close economic ties to Europe. The only positive outcome of the crisis and low oil prices would be making the shift away from oil dependence, which was talked about but never seriously attempted in the Putin administrations. For this to happen major new investments would have to be made and technology links to the outside strengthened, both hammered by the missteps in 2013-2014. The irony of all this is that Putin gained the support of rural Russians in the countryside in the 2012 presidential elections by promising no return to the economic crisis conditions following earlier ruble collapses. Now by ignoring Kudrin and other wiser counsel from the first and second administrations he does just that.

Linked Articles

Putin’s Year of Defiance and Miscalculation

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Gregory White, Gregory, White, Anton Troianovski, Anton, Troianovski

Wall Street Journal 12/18/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, James Marson, James, Marson

Abenomics advisers Yamamoto and Hamada, and Japanese prime minister Abe's decision in Nov. 2014 to challenge the Finance Ministry's views

11/20/2014

Abe calls for a snap election in Dec. 2014 after delaying the second increase in the consumption tax from 8% to 10% in 2015. About 53% of the Japanese public opposed the doubling of the consumption tax by 2015 in 2011 poll as the DPJ party Noda administration pushed for it on the advice of the Finance Ministry. Now after the 3rd quarter showed Japan in a recession over 70% of the Japanese public oppose a second increase in the consumption tax to 10% from 8% in 2015. Abenomics advisors Hamada and Yamamoto now say this increase in the tax (especially when wages are only gradually increasing) was never a part of the Abenomics.

Linked Articles

Japan’s No. 1 Reflationist Does a Victory Dance

Wall Street Journal 11/20/2014

Eleanor Warnock, Eleanor, Warnock

New York Times 11/20/2014

Martin Fackler, Martin, Fackler

Gen. James Jones, former National Security Advisor to U.S. president Obama, joins Hillary Clinton, former Secretary of State, describing the failure of Obama's Middle East policy

08/11/2014

Linked Articles

How to Save Iraq and Honor American Sacrifice

Wall Street Journal 08/15/2014

James L. Jones, James, L., Jones

New York Times 08/11/2014

Mark Landler, Mark, Landler

Questions about whether justice and accountability were accomplished in the U.S. Justice Department's settlement with Credit Suisse

05/19/2014

A WSJ editorial and a separate piece in the NYT question the assumption that justice and accountability were achieved in the U.S. government's settlement with Credit Suisse. The nagging question- is Attorney General Holder simply burnishing his image after failing to establish accountability and justice following the 2008 global financial crisis, which dealt a serious blow to America's middle class. Collective wrongdoing starts with individual actions, and holding individuals responsible establishes accountability, so that the public is protected from future actions of this nature. Somewhere since the crisis this principle has been lost in the Obama administration. A churn in management for failures is considered healthy for other American companies, and healthy for free enterprise, readers are likely to wonder why this is not so for the banks.

Linked Articles

Credit Suisse Pleads Guilty in Felony Case

New York Times 05/19/2014

Ben Protess, Ben, Protess, Jessica Silver Greenberg, Jessica, Silver Greenberg

Wall Street Journal 05/21/2014

Editorial

Hope and reality in India and Nigeria- The Singh administration in India 2010-2014, and the Jonathan administration in Nigeria 2011-2015

02/21/2014

Are too many young people in the most populous countries of Africa and Asia seeing their hopes dashed and their dreams vanish with the mismanagement of the resources of the country and of the economy? Is the demographic dividend in these countries about to be wasted? Is the goodwill of foreign investors in Europe and the U.S. eager to bring the latest technologies to these countries, as they did in China, about to be wasted by sheer mismanagement and misallocation of resources? These questions are on the minds of young people in Nigeria and India as they rest their hopes on the Buhari and Modi administrations.

Linked Articles

Nigerian Central Bank Governor Ousted

Wall Street Journal 02/21/2014

Drew Hinshaw, Drew, Hinshaw

New York Times 08/25/2014

Neha Thirani Bagri, Neha, Thirani, Bagri

Faces of workers quitting work or reducing hours as they qualify for subsidies on health insurance under the Obama Healthcare Law

02/05/2014

Faces of the workers taking subsidies available to lower income workers under the Obama Health Care Law. The Congressional Budget Office projections for 2021 show about the equivalent of 2.3 million workers worth of hours reduced as a result of the healthcare law subsidies giving workers more choice. Many use the time to work on startup business or child care for grandchildren. The jobs freed up and the hours could be taken up by other workers looking for jobs. Gains in childcare would be another result.

Linked Articles

Health Law To Cut Into Labor Force

Wall Street Journal 02/05/2014

Louise Radnofsky, Louise, Radnofsky, Damian Paletta, Damian, Paletta

Washington Post 02/09/2014

Sandhya Somasekhar, Sandhya, Somasekhar

Declan Walsh on why the firing of live ammunition on protesters in Cairo may end up as a watershed event for the Muslim world going forward

08/16/2013

Declan Walsh sees this in the context of the Muslim world. Janvoo sees this in the context of the world beyond, of Aisa and Latin America which have moved beyond the divisive politics of the past and away from military regimes- S. Korea, Thailand, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and one party PRI Mexico. The return of Gen. Park's daughter as president of S. Korea was a different one when she apologized for the behaviour of her father, even saying she coud not spit on the image of her father. Nieto's PRI is apologetic about its past and says its different, working with the opposition PRD and PAN parties on constitutional changes for reforming the econoy. Egypt and the Arab world is no exception. The Saudis and Emirates are able to deliver in economic terms as long as oil supplies and prices are high. Egypt has to find its own path and learn from the past to build the future.

Linked Articles

Other Nations Offer a Lesson to Egypt’s Military Leaders

New York Times 08/24/2013

Declan Walsh, Declan, Walsh

New York Times 08/16/2013

Charles A. Kupchan, Charles, A., Kupchan

Insights into the thinking of Janet Yellen and Ben Bernanke for a strong labor market before increasing interest rates

07/18/2013

Yellen is expected to look beyond the unemployment rate target of 6.5% set by Bernanke in Dec. 2012, and give emphasis to the long term unemployed. Bernanke also mention the under employment rate as an additional factor to consider.

Linked Articles

Don’t Expect Job Data Alone to Persuade Fed on Rates

New York Times 01/23/2014

Floyd Norris, Floyd, Norris

Wall Street Journal 07/18/2013

Jon Hilsenrath, Jon, Hilsenrath, Victoria Mcgrane, Victoria, Mcgrane

Russia's central banker Elvira Nabiullina, the ruble and central bank policies

03/12/2013

A central banker, former economy minister, who led Russia's changes for entry into the World Trade Organization, and policies to stabilize the ruble and Russia's economy during the emerging markets crisis of 2014.

Linked Articles

Putin Taps Pro-Market Economist as Banker

Wall Street Journal 03/12/2013

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, Andrey Ostroukh, Andrey, Ostroukh

Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014

Alexander Kolyandr, Alexander, Kolyandr, Andrey Ostroukh, Andrey, Ostroukh