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One negative effect of the trade war with the U.S. is an increased emphasis on energy security and increased use of coal in China. After China committed to goals for climate change coal use declined in 2014, after reaching a high in 2013. The attack on Saudi oil facilities showed risk in its reliance on Saudi oil. China's import dependency for oil reached an all time high of 72% in 2018, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review. Gradually the commitment to climate change and lower use of coal has changed since 2016 with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Initially after the U.S. withdrawal under president Trump China made bold commitment to lead the fight against climate change but has since wavered. In an October 2019 speech Premier Li Kequiang called for the development of the coal industry to ensure energy security.  As China's economy slowed in 2019 in the face of U.S. tariffs and a trade war with the U.S. efforts are being made to increase infrastructure investment which has driven coal use higher. China's steel output reached a record of 750 million metric tons in 2019. The amount of coal fired capacity under construction in China now exceeds the rest of the world combined, much of it from plants permitted before 2017, according to Global Energy Monitor. China is also expected to become the world's largest importer of natural gas by 2020. Even the Russian gas fields from Siberia supply only a fifth of China's energy demands in 2020.  China has made large strides in renewable energy helping it meet its Paris Agreement targets. Renewable energy is about 10% of China's energy mix, but its use showed growth of 29% in 2018, making up half of the world's growth. China's use of coal in the energy mix has dropped to 58% in 2018 from 72% in 2008, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review, as a result of renewable energy investments. At the Madrid Climate Conference China renewed its commitment to the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Now it is a balancing act keeping in mind energy security and economic growth along with the need for clear skies and better air quality. ...

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China's military drills around Taiwan have an unintended effect of creating a shift in American and European sentiment on the overconcentration of US and EU investment in China. Business in Germany and in the US has operated for a long time in the Merkel and Bush-Obama-Trump administrations a if this overconcentration which hurt workers and communities in both the EU and the US did not matter as long as the interests of the individual companies was met. Mr. Biden's policy takes an entirely different approach to protect American workers, rebuild American manufacturing, rebuild infrastructure, and to build America's leadership in the world. The military drills only increase the awareness in America of the risks and dangers of the positions taken by previous administrations. Shifting sentiment to back president Biden's strong steps to rebuild America and American leadership.

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Krugman points to some striking facts about China in 2011. Consumer spending in China is only 35% of GDP and has declined over the years. There are no signs of rebalancing the economy away from exports by increasing consumer spending. China's dependence on exports for trade surpluses is greater than ever. Beyond this there is another disturbing fact. With weak consumer spending and heavy investment spending at about half of GDP, Kugman raises the question where is all that increase in spending going? Real estate investment takes up about half of the increase in investment spending, as the share of GDP of real estate investment almost doubles compared to figures for 2000. Much of the rest of the increase Krugman attributes to firms selling to the construction industry. The speculative fever, the corruption at the local level, the shadow banking system which is not protected and unsupervised, the poor quality of statistics, suggest a bubble phenomena that may not be under control of policy makers, and risks damaging China economy and the world economy in 2012-2013. After all China's economic and financial planners and banks are no better than America's or Japan's, where asset bubbles burst causing serious damage....

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Gao Xiqing, vice chairman, president of China Investment Corporation, told a panel discussion during meetings of the International Monetary Fund, on September 24, 2011, China cannot be expected to provide solutions to the eurozone debt crisis. Xiqing said: "We're not saviors. We have to save ourselves." He added that CIC would consider buying bonds of troubled eurozone countries -"if it has a risk profile that fits into our allocation, but don't expect us to buy more than our risk appetite would take." And the head of China's central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, told the panel that China cannot raise its growth rate because of inflation and other problems from unsustainable growth.

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Angela Merkel left Germany dangerously dependent on Russia for energy supplies that may simply be shut off after maintenance on the Nordstream pipeline. She did even worse on China says this report in The Times that says that it leaves Germany on the hook for billions. There are $200 billion of German investments in China and German business concern is snowballing with new restrictions on operations in China and the deteriorating business sentiment. Worse the entire supply chain for solar energy and other renewable energy products to tackle climate change is dependent on Chinese components. Another failure to prepare for the future under different scenarios. And 46% of German business have supply lines that include components made in China. By grossly underestimating the risks of such dangerous dependence on Russia and on China, and ignoring warnings from the US, Merkel has hit Germany's new elected government of Scholz, Baerbock and Habeck with very serious problems that may take the next five to ten years to sort out. On energy and how to build a whole new supply chain in Asia with the US and its allies Japan, India and other countries. The ultimate irony was that Merkel felt that she was the leader of the free world, and a free world that excluded the US and India. Such is folly. And how she was presented as a good leader in the media is today hard to comprehend. ...

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This report in the WSJ makes the America centric thinking mistake of forgetting where China started from in assessing progress and China's new priorities. In 1960 the World Bank shows China per capita at $90 which does not change much till 1990 when it was $300, the Deng opening to western technology and capital pushed it up to $3000 the year 2000 (US $36,000) and $4500 in 2010 (US $50,000) when the global financial crisis hit. Since 2010 the Chinese economy was burdened by high local government debt and struggled to get to $10,000 in 2020 under Xi Jinping's first two terms as president. Yet it paid a huge price for this -the chance of Bo Xilai (2014) upsetting the twin banners of Science and Modernization of the May 4th 1919 movement that set the course of China for 100 years uninterrupted through the Nationalists, the Japanese occupation, the Maoist CCP, the Deng CCP opening and Jinping CCP pullback. The huge inequality was seen as an opportunity for Bo Xi Lai or some other leader to capitalize on moving China in an unknown direction that posed risks for the future of China. Even then the first preference of Xi would be to carry on with what had worked after Deng. Yet it was clear that working class votes were shifting the dynamics of elections after the Trump election and closing the doors to open access to western capital, technology, and investment. With Trump in erratic and uncertain ways, with Biden after the elections of 2020 consistent and with single minded determination to limit flows. Not just Xi, any other Chinese leader would have had to have the internal discussions about the need to shift back to a model China was familiar with and one that worked before- that of state intervention in the economy, that of reducing the inequalities that posed risks for the CCP's survival as forging a path for stability to carry out the twin banners of the May 4, 1919 Movement - Science and Modernization as China's salvation. Unlike the hysteria about China posing a challenge to the US these internal debates of Xi and the party may have concluded that the US with about half the population of China's as it grows with immigration in the future and multiple times the per capita GDP was a country that no other country was going to come close to. In this sense the supply chains are deceptive as these are likely to be completely redone under the Biden administration to bring most important manufacturing back to China. It is in this context that Xi had limited room to manoeuvre and decided to focus on stability for the long term to fulfill China's dream of the May 4, 1919 Movement of the last 100 years for Science and Modernization casting aside the risks associated for instability of the inequality that comes with more of the western type of growth, and with the climate change risks also associated with it. Lower growth gives China a chance to correct some of the flaws of the hyper growth that was partly of its own making and partly thrust upon it by investors from the outside, so that the new climate would best serve the goals of the May 4, 1919 Movement of keeping high the banners of Science and Modernization. This kind of rethinking is also going on in the US in the same manner about inequalities and hardships for workers and families, with some of the anger directed at China as internal political sentiment- hence the trillions of dollars moved by the Biden administration to address the flaws of growth under free markets and intervene in the economy where needed as in climate change to give firm sense of direction. In a sense the direction taken in different contexts the American and the Chinese are the same - address the problems of workers and families, of the people, as Lincoln had pointed out and striven so hard for, so that Labor is the more important than Capital, and workers and families vital to the nation.   ...

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Friedman says Putin acted emotionally by letting impulsive reaction to the anti-Russian feelings in western Ukraine determine Russian policy following the collapse of the Yakunovych government. The months long Russian response in Crimea and eastern Ukraine may have secured Russian pride at a large cost. This includes the damage to the relationship with Germany, seting the EU on a path to look for other sources of energy to reduce dependence on Russian gas, a natural gas deal with China in which the price was kept "a secret" and may have provided China with a bargaining edge considering the timing of the negotiations. The most severe impact is in the loss of confidence within Russia, reminding the Putin administration that though the economy has grown in the Putin years it is still fragile and connected to the global economy. The capital outflows of the magnitude of $160 billion at a time of high inflation and sharply slowing growth actually put at risk the gains Putin and Russia made in the last decade, and risk the future agenda to improve the standard of living of the Russian people eyond the major cities. Putin's own assessment would eventually be closer to that of Alexei Kudrin. Kudrin, finance minister in Putin's previous term, correctly saw the dangers of impulsive policy concentrated in one figure, and the suppression of other voices including the opposition needed for Russia to be governed in a manner similiar to western Europe, to attain a similiar level of economic progress and standards of living. In today's global economy even the U.S., France, UK and states inside Germany need foreign investment for jobs, new ideas and technology, and the opinion expressed on media television and internet shapes investor sentiment to a larger degree than fully understood....

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Rishi Sunak, Britain's finance minister, defends the increase in the corporate tax rate to 25%, saying the increased receipts from corporate tax in recent years were because of cyclical recovery of corporate profits which took a hit in the financial crisis. He says that the cuts in the rate by George Osborne, former Tory finance minister, have not led to increased business investment. Osborne cut taxes to 20% from 29%, lowest in G20 countries and Hammond who succeeded Osborne as finance minister cut the rate to 19%. At 25% the corporate tax will still be the lowest in the G7 countries. France, Japan and Germany have corporate tax rate of 30-31%. Higher taxes would help finance needs for government investment in infrastructure and health services, public services, and tackle the financial situation arising out of the pandemic support. The last time taxes were raised was in 1973. This also shows that the UK and the rest of the world is looking at the mixed results shown from cutting taxes. Business investment has not resulted from the business tax cuts in the way that would support creating job growth, some of the investment only supporting automation. The investment in infrastructure is lacking from the business sector leading to the need for government to use taxes for renewal in updating infrastructure. The rise of China with new infrastructure has only shown the problems with simply cutting taxes in the hope that job growth, economic growth, infrastructure growth would happen as hoped. This is why the Tories under Boris Johnson are trying a new approach to get the job done. ...

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The US and Japan are coordinating efforts to limit transfer of sensitive technology to China and increase trade and cooperation within the G-7 in high technology sectors. Efforts are being coordinated with South Korea. Janet Yellen says the IMF has overblown the effects on the world economy from the US decoupling from China. IMF reports have also in addition presented India incorrectly as a non aligned country, when it is a close partner of the US. In 2023 US is the largest trade partner of India.The US position is to limit flows of technology in sectors considered vital, and continue world trade in other areas with China. US is committed to friendshoring to India, Vietnam and other countries. Germany's three parties CDU, Greens and SPD are reversing close trade and technology links with China. This is also the policy of the Modi administration which seeks close trade and technology ties to US and EU. The shift is in response to what is really an overconcentration of the supply chain in China that happened as business in the US and EU and the Merkel and the Bush-Obama-Trump administrations failed to see the risks of overconcentration. And carried out misguided policies in trade and investment that are now being reversed by US president Biden, Kishida in Japan, and Modi in India. ...

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Risk averse leaders are hurting the German economy with little or no growth in the last 5 years. See articles alongside. Anglela Merkel's debt brake inthe German Constitution and the attitude for debt brake of Lindner's FDP in the Scholz coalition since 2021 have led to underinvestment in public infrastructure. Merkel's lack of investment in digital technologies, overdependence on Russia for oil and China for markets during the decade in office are all leaving Germany in bad shape in 2015.

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Simon Denyer talks to experts in China in this remarkable piece about the risks to China's own forward development for the economy and society of adopting the so called Putin Way. Particularly when Mr. Putin himself may have second thoughts about as it offers so little and risks so much- actions in Ukraine reduce trade, much needed foreign investment and technology leading to slow growth. This is because technologically advanced societies and economies in a globally interdependent economy need to remain open and vibrant. Mr. Putin's failure to transform Russia's economy from overdependence on commodity exports, while risking development further for relatively insignificant gains on the fringes of its borders, reduces his own development scorecard from a B in the first term to a C in the second. Russia and China have large rural population with low incomes, and the risk is that these emerging markets will fall into the "middle income trap" reaching a certain level and then stagnating, with the additional burden of an an aging population. The irony is that Mr. Putin was elected with the help of this rural population outside the big cities specifically to preserve and expand economic gains made in the first term not erode these economic gains....

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Huge losses sustained by sovereign wealth funds. Estimated $350 billion for Gulf foreign reserve funds and SWF's, according to RGE Monitor's Rachel Ziemba, or 27% of assets. Sovereign Wealth funds are either using their funds for supporting their local banks as in the Gulf areas, or buying back stakes of cash strapped western banks like RBS in the case of China. Russia, China and other countries are using their SWF's for stimulus spending. And Russia, Gulf economies that are dependent on oil prices, are looking at possible sale of foreign assets at oil prices between $50 and a deterioration to $25. Only China has a surplus that is sustained through the last quarter of 2008, but this is changing quickly as imports pick up after the stimulus kicks in, and exports drop precipitiously in 2010. South Korea and Russia have also learned of the need to have liquid safe investments preferably in dollars in the current crisis, as they have learned how large capital outflows can get in a short time. And the US is not looking at these large capital inflows from overseas as a benevolent thing, because it overvalues American assets, and leads to all sorts of distortions in liquidity and pricing of risk that contributed to the current crisis. In short the whole situation with SWF's has a suprising ending, as with everything in the current crisis, nothing worked out as expected or planned....

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Hear this America- Calling something that is all around us a hoax is not like telling a lie on media. Calling a thing a hoax when it is a growing Threat has Big, Big, Big consequences that you might not even want to think about. Project 2025 and "Drill Baby Drill" would create billions of tons more of carbon pollution and destroy any climate change action that would help control climate change- causing even bigger fires and sudden floods all over the world. The cost says think tank Energy Innovation is 2.7 billion tons of carbon pollution- what India emits in 1 year- and 1.7 million job losses by 2030 from jobs lost in renewable energy including small offset from fossil fuels. The cost would be at the minimum over $1 trillion dollars to repair by 2028- the cost of not taking action on climate change for four years, of additional floods and fires larger than ones before,  and of tackling the additional damage to the climate, the loss of the technological advances needed over next 4 years, the investments needed to tackle a much larger problem than it is now. It would require larger deficits to tackle and risk the health and well being of future generations. For the US compared to China the consequence will be a severe loss of technological advantage in the technologies for renewable energy that no longer, no longer have the support of the government as they do in China.   ...

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Inflation on an annual basis hit 27% in June. The central bank widened the band it alloed the dong to rise or fall against the dollar each day from 1% to 2% and announced a devaluation of 2% in June 2008. At this time the dollar buys 19000 dong on the black market compared to the official rate of 16600 dong, and the official rate is climbing up to the higher unofficial rate. A large part of the inflation is caused by a flood of foreign investment and bank loans to state owned companies, and the spending by state owned companies. The state owned companies like the Vietnam Shipbuilding Industry Group are controllinng their spending. Some of the inflationary influx is investment from foreign manufacturers trying to escape rising costs in China, showing the risks if this and other factors are not carefully managed. Recently Greenspan advised Vietnamese premier Nguyen Dung to mop up the liquidity surge and restrict spending by state owned firms.

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The huge risks the misallocated stimulus capital from real estate speculation poses for the Chinese economy. China's government rapidly expanded lending after the 2008 global financial crisis. One estimate is that about 10 trillion yuan in new loans were made in 2009, over twice the amount of 2008, expanding the loan portfolio and money supply by one third. A major problem is vacant homes as Chinese put their money in second homes as an investment. Chinese are not investing in the stock market because of the volatility, and with the low yields in bonds and banks money is going into real estate. According to a Morgan Stanley economist, about 25-30% of private commercial and housing space is vacant. This happens just as middle class Chinese are being priced out of the housing market. Prices went up by 12% in the housing market this year according to the China National Bureau of Statistics. Couples wanting to leave their parent's homes find it difficult to do so. It was the topic for a Chinese TV series "Dwelling Narrowness." ...

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Shares of Adani Enterprises went up by 3000% over 5 years putting valuations at extreme levels, says this report in the WSJ. This has created a disconnect between valuations and fundamentals say some experts. Hindenburg Research is a American forensic financial research firm started in 2017 by Nathan Anderson in New York City with 5 employees. It has issued a critical report of the Adani Group companies leading to a loss of 18.5% of its valuation. Adani Group companies make up 5% of the Bombay Stock Exchange and are a big part of its renewable energy effort even though the company had major interests in coal in Australia. Adani is trying to make the switch to renewable solar and wind energy and at the same time meet India's continuing need for coal because of its large population. The situation is similar to China and is poorly understood in the US and Europe, the effort to make large investments in renewable energy even as the company provides energy from fossil fuels. Adani set up the Mundra port in Gujarat helping Gujarat become energy sufficient and making it the most industrialized part of India. The London based Financial Times took a look at the Adani Group long before Hindenburg Research in the last 2 years and concluded that Adani Group companies have grown rapidly because India's effort for industrialization requires aggressive investment and risk taking which none of the other companies including India's Tata and Reliance Group are able to do in infrastructure and energy in the same way that Adani has. Reliance Group has invested in 4G and 5G and setup Jio to create low cost access to fast internet in India. When it comes to roads, airports, coal and renewable energy Adani has invested aggressively. This has created the perception that the Adani Group has benefited from its relations with the government. As the Financial Times put it Adani Group was the only private investor willing to take up the challenge of super sized goals needed for India's rapid growth. In this sense a forensic research company based on short selling is up against a company that has already faced skepticism about its rapid emergence as a renewable energy focused company shifting from fossil fuels, a transition neither Exxon or Chevron in the US have been able to do. ...

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Yoon suk-yeol the prosecutor who decided to run in 2021 for the first time in politics, won the recent presidential election in South Korea. He talks to the WSJ in this interview report and outlines the policies of his administration.  Yoon say she sees upholding the constitution which embodies values of  liberal democracy and market economy as the deciding factors for foreign and domestic policy. He wants to build closer ties to the US and Japan. He will resume defense exercizes with the US that were suspended during the Trump administration. On China he sees continued economic relations as a trading partner, but sees flip flopping in foreign policy as creating risks for the Indo-Pacific region. If invited to join the Quad Yoon says South Korea  "will positively review joining." On domestic policy he says his goal is "to correct and normalize so that the market can operate as it should." Yoon led the prosecution in efforts against prior presidents and Samsung, and his known for his forthright approach. Yoon wants to see more foreign investment and says he will ensure that there is no discrimination against foreign companies, including eliminating unnecessary regulation. ...

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Of 161 million people employed in 2024 about 40-50 million in vulnerable groups living from paycheck to paycheck and without savings to support them in a medical emergency is a real problem in the US economy. It is why even as unemployment looks good at 4% and inflation down to 3% there is a lot of angst for Americans for cost of living. Fifteen million baby boomers who will turn 65 years for retirement between now 2024 and 2030 face a situation where they have less than 250,000 in savings. Many who were born between 1945 and 1962 called baby boomers are in this group with diminished savings. In the prime of their careers they were hit by the 2009 financial crisis caused by bank speculation risk taking. They also were hit by the pandemic in the peak years of income growth. Other such vulnerable groups are young people with high student who are being helped by president Biden. There are also the low income groups that have been hit by medical costs and a family emergency that were pushed into poverty. Other groups in the millions are the people at the low income levels who are working paycheck to paycheck because of housing costs. About one fourth or 25% of apartment renters are people whose households budget shows 50% or more going to housing costs which have increased 20% in the last 2-3 years, which includes the pandemic years 2022 and 2023. President Biden seeks to limit apartment rent price increases to 5% and Kamala Harris has proposed help for families for the portion above 30% of household income going to rent. The jump in cost of living from automobiles, automobile repair and housing, cost of groceries have affected other groups with large credit card debt. This is a result of the supply chain concentration in China which comes from American business overconcentrating production in China and previous administrations doing little about this. Biden's answer is to bring jobs and manufacturing knowhow and investment back to America. During the pandemic some people resisted getting vaccinated and lost their jobs, a million people lost their lives, others took early retirement seeing the stress ful lives during the pandemic, others including women quit to take care of children. This has reduced the labor supply to business leading to tight supply higher prices.The result is that there are about 5 such vulnerable groups each with about 5-10 million people for a total of about 40-50 million people at risk. For these people the cost of living presents huge challenges, including childcare. It includes young people and retirees, single women and families on low income hourly wages that have not kept up with inflation.  ...

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Speaking at a banking conference, advisors including the head of Russia's largest retail bank Sberbank, German Gref, minister of the economy, Aleksei Ulyukayev, and head of the central bank , Elvira Nabiullina, express deep concern about the economic prospects in 2015. Foreign investment is down from about $90 billion in the 1st quarter of 2013 to a negligible amount in the 3rd quarter of 2014. Capital outflows following the Ukraine crisis are estimated at about $110 billion by former finance minister Alexsei Kudrin. The ruble dropped to its lowest level against the dollar since the 1990's. And the sharp decline in oil prices with Brent crude at about $90 is another risk factor as 50% of the budget comes from oil and gas revenues and 60% of exports are still oil and gas, with no serious or effective effort to diversify under the Putin adminstration. Putin told the banking conference that a deficit free budget and reserves of $460 billion are "fundamental factors supporting stability." Advisors and leading bankers remain unconvinced. The problem is that even at the beginning of 2014 before the Ukraine crisis foreign investment had slowed to a trickle, similiar to what India experienced in 2013. The central bank head says her effort to open up the bond markets in Russia to foreign investors is now in vain because there are few foreign investors. Instead of reversing the situation as is happening in India with the new Modi administration, policy under Putin and the Ukraine conflict may have scared investors away with the increasing western sanctions and stagflation (estimated 8% inflation and about 0.5% growth in 2014). The head of Sberbank Mr. Gref told the banking conference- "The Soviet Union broke apart because of the mind boggling incompetence of the Soviet leadership. They did not respect the laws of economic development." The problem with sovereign reserves is that it can protect a sovereign currency such the Russian ruble or the Brazilian cruzeiro to some extent, but today's vibrant economies need foreign investment and foreign technology for growth. Even a country such as China with a trillion dollars in reserves needs the reserves in its special case because of its billion plus aging population, and is no exception to these laws of economic development about the need for foreign technology and foreign investment. ...

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Forget Macron who is simply following French policy in the manner of De Gaulle, says Greg Ip in WSJ. The European Union has already set its policy to decouple its relationships in the supply chain from China, it just calls it something else -"de-risking." The EU he says is even tougher about this than the US. The EU's Leyen has stated: "The Chinese Communist Party's clear goal is a systemic change of the international order with China at its center... We need to ensure that our companies capital, expertise and knowledge are not used to enhance the military and intelligence capabilities of those who are also systemic rivals."  Mikko Huotari, the head of the Berlin based think tank Mercator Institute for Chinese Studies says that the US and the EU arrived at this through a process that went on in parallel. In fact the Scandinavian countries such as Sweden and Denmark, and the Baltic countries came across this much earlier before Biden became president because of acrimonious relations with China. This is also true of countries in Eastern Europe such as Czech Republic.  Germany's position is based on finding a transitional period for decoupling to reduce the impact on its economy. And even China is aware of this situation and looking for a transitional period for decoupling. More significant is the attitude of companies says Greg Ip- companies such as Tesla, Apple and even Airbus that have continued investments in China with little change. And it is this that president Biden is seeking to change with US policy positions. Another less observed aspect of this is the realization of both the US and EU, that the clear and obvious mistake of overconcentration of the supply chain in China was made under Merkel and the Bush-Obama adminstrations. China too realizes that it would have been better off - less recrimination from workers in the US,  and less costly damaging growth that led to climate change- if there was not this much overconcentration of the supply chain in China. In short it benefitted no one, and happened simply because companies sought to take advantage of attractive offers of building in China offered by local governments in China with subsidies from the Chinese government, and the manufacturing capabilities that kept expanding in a virtuous circle as better infrastructure and logistics were built over time. It goes to show that unless governments are vigilant and aware of these risks the unintended can happen with different consequences including destabilizing the social fabric and the political structure of western democracies.  ...

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Saudis are now prepared to increase oil production after weeks of US diplomacy in exchange for security guarantees against attacks by Yemeni rebels and Iran. Russian oil output has declined by about 1 million barrels a day since the start of the war says WSJ. Drops in production lead to a rise in oil prices more than making up for the decline in revenues for Russia. This makes oil sanctions a weak deterrent for Russia in its invasion of Ukraine unless Saudis and UAE step in with increased oil production to make the EU embargo on Russian oil work effectively to cut Russian oil revenues financing the Ukraine invasion. Europe has stepped up with its embargo on about 90% of Russian oil- all except pipeline supplies to Hungary and Czech Republic, Slovakia as an exception. This will reduce oil production in Russia as EU is the biggest importer of Russian oil, bigger after previous German chancellor Merkel's failure to see the risks in such dependence and increased imports. For the oil embargo to lead to sharp reduction in Russian oil revenues that reduces financing of the Ukraine invasion, and for the EU oil embargo to bring results the missing piece is Saudi action to increase production. This may now be in place as Mr. Biden visits Riyadh next month. Crown Prince Salman of Saudi Arabia has pushed Saudi Arabia to make changes to modernize the country's culture providing the US with a partner that is now different than the Saudi Arabia steeped in tradition and inward looking under previous rulers. Under president Obama Democrats favored Iran and reduced security guarantees that were set up since president Franklin Delano Roosevelt met the Saudi King in 1944 aboard an American ship during the war. The turn of events with Russian invasion of Ukraine with Chinese support have created risks of a China invasion of Taiwan with aggressive action of China. President Biden has made this clear and stated straightforwardly the American position on Ukraine- Russia winning by invading a neighboring country sets the precedent for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. This is why the US remains resolute with its European partners in seeing to it that Ukraine remains as Biden said in the NYT  "independent, sovereign and able to deter invasion and defend itself." For Europe it is about defending its neighborhood from the Baltic Sea to Bulgaria in the Balkans with American support. For the US it is about keeping its leadership presence in Asia in an alliance with Japan, India, Australia and most of South East Asia including Indonesia, Bangladesh with a population of close to 3 billion people. China which was supported by the US throughout the period of colonial dominance since the 18th century preventing its breakup and foreign rule as happened in India, and a major recipient of American aid and investment in the 20th century is now where Japan stood in the two decade period 1925 -1945 with its aggressive expansion under Japanese imperialist rule. In this sense the world is moving back to the days of the Free World's struggle in the days after the Iron Curtain fell over Europe with Soviet expansion in Eastern Europe. Saudis, UAE, and Turkey as part of NATO, are also moving back to the positions they had over a long period for centuries from 1800. Saudi Arabia and UAE came into prominence after discovery of oil and were backwaters to Egypt and Turkey which were supported by Britain to keep Russia from advancing in Asia and Europe during that period. India under the British Empire is now in the Indo-Pacific Framework with Japan which was inward looking and under European influence for most of the last 200 years.  ...

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Surprisingly very little can be found on the internet on how the relationship between Apple's Tim Cook and Foxconn started and how it evolved over the two decades- a key to understanding the two decade rise of Apple since 1998 when Tim Cook, an Alabama engineer, joined Apple's Steve Jobs to rebuild an almost demolished Apple. It is also key to understanding the rise of China in manufacturing to the point of excluding all other countries, including the US, for major investments. It is also key to understanding how the social relations have been disrupted in the US, how the US workers and families suffered from outshoring on this massive scale never before seen in the US for 100 years of the Industrial Revolution since Lincoln in the 1860's. This has not significantly changed to this day as the US goes into the midterms to elect a new Congress. Mr. Trump ruffled sentiment on this issue but had little action or results to show for it to reverse this. Mr. Biden is making some headway as the US elects a new Congress in November 2022 to take up the tasks to restore American leadership in manufacturing and in technologies that support advanced manufacturing from semiconductors to renewable energy. What happens now depends on many things. Mr. Cook talks about intuition as a main driver along with preparation and hard work in his project which has done little for America and the American people, in the sense of how its communities look like, and how its families live, as they are largely excluded from Cook's Apple project. Even as it employs about 3 million workers of contract manufacturers, for the most part in China with Foxconn. Total employees in the US are 37,000 mostly highly paid engineers and technical workers. The 270,000 working in what it calls its ecosystem are mostly workers in retail stores paid much lower wages. Of manufacturing there is little on the scale in China. Not since the days of Lincoln in the 1960's who fought a civil war so that the rights of labour in the US were protected as seen in his message to Congress in the 1860's, and through the Industrial Revolution for 100 years, has something like this happened in the US. It is not about some manufacturing taking place in Asia, it is the sheer scale that excludes America from significant manufacturing, about 300,000 workers in the US mostly in lower paid retail jobs, and 3 million in China with contract manufacturers that is an aberration from history. It is about delegating an entire supply chain in manufacturing that constitutes this huge aberration.     ...

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The South China Morning Post provides this view of China on the day of the 70th anniversary of the Communist Party of China, on the long road from the founding of the government in 1949 under Mao, the Cultural Revolution, and the shift to a state sponsored market economy under premier Deng in the 1980's.  From being at early stages of industrialization to a fully developed modern and industrialized country over three decades.  The challenges China faces are whether its growth will slow with a high debt situation, trade war with the U.S., aging population and the housing bubble that has created problems in Hong Kong. This could lead to a situation where its per capita income stays in the middle range at around $12,000 per capita, referred to as a middle income economy by the World Bank. Some experts believe that the factors that propelled China since 1990- a youthful labor force, globalization reducing tariffs and benefitting from entry into WTO, easy access to western technology, land sales for local governments to finance industrial development, rapid urbanization, and infrastructure investment in electricity rail and highways, are now reaching their limits with smaller incremental steps and growth in the future. The big gains made in the last three decades could be limited by other factors also such as the high debt economy, build up of industrial overcapacity, limited domestic consumption to take the place of exports facing high tariffs. Countries normally face some slowdown in such situation after a period of rapid growth, Japan and South Korea being recent examples. During the transition period to a new kind of economy from the manufacturing export push Asian model many unseen social and other problems emerge. The situation in Hong Kong shows how the housing bubble can also lead to problems that require resources and attention.  There are other social problems that continue to remain hidden. It does not take long for hidden problems to emerge as the situation in Brazil for lack of sanitation and epidemic prevention shows. In China the cost of too rapid development has led to pollution of rivers and land that will need to be cleaned up. The effect of contamination of food supply is an ever present risk with the contamination of land and water. Little attention is paid to prevalence of smoking and its damaging effects on health. The one child policy also brings with it cultural issues of how a whole new generation of children without siblings. Many other social problems that affect the quality of life become evident as growth slows and addressing these problems can actually benefit the country and its people. ...

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McKinnon argues that China should be very careful not to appreciate the yuan beyond the interest rate differential between the two countries, which is related to their inflation rates. If inflation comes down in the U.S. even a 3% appreciation could lead to deflation in China. See the related article by Feldstein in this group which looks at the need for U.S. to keep business investment strong and boost exports to compensate for a housing price collapse related slowdown in the US. How this will playout and how the two situations will be managed so as to create desirable outcomes and avoid risks of slowdown in both countries is uncertain.

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Zhu Changhong plays a key role in investing China's $3.5 trillion dollars in foreign reserves. He is part of the management at China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange or SAFE, a division of the central bank. He maintains a low profile, yet he has played a critical role in shifting investment into Japanese and U.S. equities and bonds issued by the European Financial Stability Fund, reducing the risk exposure to U.S. Treasury's as the U.S. Federal Reserve changes monetary policy. From 45% of China's foreign reserves invested in U.S. government bonds, or $1.11 trillion, in June 2010, SAFE under Zhu's guidance reduced the allocation to 35%, or $1.14 trillon, in June 2012, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis. He has an interesting background. Coming from Anhui province, he studied physics at the University of Chicago, then shifted to life as a trader in financial markets at Allianz's PIMCO investment firm. After spending 20 years in the U.S., Zhu returned in 2009 as chief investment officer of SAFE. He was drawn back to China by another expatriate Yi Gang, a SAFE director who was an economics professor at Indiana University- Purdue University, Indianapolis....