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The Yuan and the Greenback

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McKinnon argues that China should be very careful not to appreciate the yuan beyond the interest rate differential between the two countries, which is related to their inflation rates. If inflation comes down in the U.S. even a 3% appreciation could lead to deflation in China. See the related article by Feldstein in this group which looks at the need for U.S. to keep business investment strong and boost exports to compensate for a housing price collapse related slowdown in the US. How this will playout and how the two situations will be managed so as to create desirable outcomes and avoid risks of slowdown in both countries is uncertain.

Global Economic Growth post-2008- Inflation, Interest Rates, the Dollar and Exchange Rates

08/15/2005

How all these factors come together for global economic growth, any adjustments, and risks, and different perspectives on achieving the right mix for policies.

Grouped Articles

Housing: Even More Red Flags

BusinessWeek 08/15/2005

The Dollar at Home -- and Abroad

Wall Street Journal 04/28/2006

Full House

Wall Street Journal 08/30/2006

The Yuan and the Greenback

Wall Street Journal 08/29/2006

Geithner Hints at Harder Line on China Trade

New York Times 01/23/2009

China Rejects Currency Manipulation Charge

New York Times 01/25/2009


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