LyrArc Article Gist
All three countries in the South Asian neighborhood now face economic crisis of large proportions - Sri Lanka, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, all turning to the IMF for help. In the case of Sri Lanka there was help from the beginning from India. It was lack of jobs and not enough jobs generated even with a decade of 7% economic growth. It was in protests over job quotas reserved for independence soldiers that led to the ouster of Sheik Hasina's government. This report in NYT shows overdependence on garment exports which generated growth for decades under PM Hasina as having a drawback during Covid. The disruptions in the supply chain during Covid hurt Bangladesh when garment earnings dropped. At one point the industry was closed for months. India provided assistance including vaccines during Covid and India is the largest destination for Bangladesh exports with economic ties to 5 Indian states. The recovery from Covid has not been strong and has led to reduction in foreign exchange reserves. In 2022 Bangladesh turned to the IMF for assistance. Not enough jobs were being created for a large population. In 2000 the population was 129 million, in 2019 before pandemic 165 million. Today in 2024 it is 171 million, increasing by 33% from 2000. By contrast in a communist state Vietnam population increased by 22 million to 99 million or 29% in 2024 from 2000   Foreign exchange reserves dropped during the pandemic to $23 billion in July 2023, in the last 11 months it dropped by $4 billion to $19 billion. By comparison Pakistan's are at $13 billion, up $4 billion in 11 months. Foreign remittances from Bangladeshis overseas are another source of foreign exchange. The major problem of getting tax revenues with people and business not paying taxes due is a problem for Bangladesh and for Pakistan. India has made huge gains through GST and digitization of economy to get tax revenues to support economic growth and infrastructure. And under the leadership of prime minister Modi there is discipline, girt, a strategic focus, with good governance, that is similar to what helped transform Japan and China into industrialized nations. This is missing in Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Bangladesh and in Burma. This gives some idea why in the present budget north and eastern Indian states of Bihar, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh, with a combined population of 230 million people are in a specially designated region for development. It is a gathering momentum against centuries of foreign occupation and neglect similar to that seen in China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Experts say China's official GDP figures are unreliable and cannot be verified. Transparency is sorely lacking. The methodology, inflation assumptions and other basis for the calculations are not presented, so that many of the numbers cannot be reproduced. The official figure for 1st quarter GDP growth is 7%, from China's Bureau of National Statistics. GDP growth estimates developed by Capital Economics show 4.9% growth, by Citi 4.6%, by the China Center of the Conference Board 4%. Since 2012 the Capital Economics estimates are just above 5%, and the Conference Board estimates about 4%, showing that the growth rate has slowed markedly since 2012. As Communist party chief of Liaoning province, the current prime minister showed serious doubts about the GDP numbers and preferred to rely on figures for rail cargo, electricity consumption, bank loans.

LyrArc Article Gist
For the last decade restrictions on sale or purchase of apartments in new buildings were being put in place by the Chinese government to make sure that buildings were for living not for speculation. With the current downturn in construction after collapse of Evergrande and other construction companies, and China depending on construction for one third of economic growth, this policy has changed. Previously couples who divorced just to buy a second apartment were not allowed to buy one for three years. People had to move to Chengdu and pay local taxes for three yeas before they could buy an apartment in the city. These restrictions are now lifted to promote new construction that had fallen quickly after some big bankruptcies and homeowner protests over incomplete buildings in 2022-2023.

LyrArc Article Gist
A second term Trump-Vance will face uphill risks and a mess in economics from a Trumpian Republican party and Congress, says WSJ. WSJ Editorial Board says a second Trump term is not without risks. Tariffs cost 1.1% in annual growth in the Trump first term says WSJ, and it did have an impact on inflation. It would have had greater impact on inflation with the supply chain crisis of Biden's first term, had this supply chain crisis happened in Trump's first term. A second term Trump-Vance support tariffs as high as 60% on Chinese imports which would have a bigger effect on inflation and economic growth than of the first term. The key difference is that with tax cuts a basic rule for Republican policies Trump-Vance second term would not invest in infrastructure the way Mr. Biden has done and Biden will do so in a second term. As a result the economic growth is likely to be greater and inflation smaller under a Biden administration. Trillions of dollars in investment in the economy and infrastructure under Biden in a second term will be missing in a Trump-Vance tax cuts administration policy. And with it hundreds of thousand of jobs created each quarter will be missing in Trump-Vance second term. Add to this the level of clarity of stable economic policy under a Biden second term and contrast it with some of the chaos in economic policy of a Trump-Vance second term. The basic contradiction between tax cuts policy and the nation's need for infrastructure spending/rebuilding under a Republican under Trump administration will not go away, present a huge stumbling block. Chaotic policy could come from Project 2025 that says consider abolishing the US central bank Federal Reserve. This kind of erratic and unwise policy proposals are clearly not happening under Biden and Yellen. Another key difference is the cost to the economy of delays of several years in doing nothing for climate in Trump-Vance 2024-2028. Severe effects on climate if nothing is done could cause acceleration of climate negative costs which a future economy under Democrats would face, in reality the Nation would face. America's Business has taken a short term approach to climate change, when the time comes to pay the costs of short term thinking it assumes it is somebody else's problem- this happened with supply chain concentration in China the burden falling on the middle and lower classes, it would happen again with missing climate change action under Trump-Vance second term. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The auto sector has an outsized effect on economic growth that is not easily grasped. The IMF sees a fifth of slowdown in growth of global gross domestic product and a third of world trade coming just from low demand for autos. The auto sector feeds into demand for steel, aluminium, copper, plastic and electronics, so it feeds into other sectors. Aging populations, stagnant incomes, ride sharing, and economic headwinds on trade for China, slower demand with lower economic activity in India from bad loans and low credit in the finance sector, all have cut into growth. Tariffs from president Trump and tit for tat tariffs increase costs and cut into profits. In Europe there is added factor of mandated drop in carbon dioxide emissions by 20% by 2021. The new technology will increase costs of autos by 800 to 5000 euros and add 5-11% to the selling price, reducing sales by about 5%.  A fast growing market is India but companies such as Ford and GM have moved out as it slows down. Higher emissions standards in India for 2020 are likely to increase prices in a very price sensitive market. Lower availability of credit in China and India have led to drop in sales of about 15% in both major markets for autos since mid 2018.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Savings for China and Japan by increasing oil imports at low prices could amount to about 1% of the economy for each country. Japan imports of oil are one tenth of total imports, and amount to $75 billion. At prices half of what they were before coronavirus the savings are about $40 billion a year. This will offset some of the drop in economic growth of about 3% in the year ending March 2021.

For countries where the coronavirus has been relatively controlled with manufacturing and infrastructure projects ready to go ahead the benefit is greatest. China expects to see about 7% decline in GDP in the first quarter resulting in minimal growth for the year as long as export markets in the U.S. and Europe remain weak. For India it depends on how long the lockdown continues and how quickly economic activity can resume under new conditions. 

LyrArc Article Gist
US economic growth was 2.4% in the second quarter of 2023. Even though the Fed increased rates at 10 consecutive meetings by 5% since March 2022 to tackle inflation the US economy appears strong. Large investments in the trillions of dollars in US manufacturing and infrastructure, tackling climate change is what is different this time compared to the past 2 decades when bad decisions were made with twin wars in the Arab and Muslim world, and the supply chain was transferred to China, investments were neglected in infrastructure, education and health in public goods, and capital markets allocated money with decreasing advantage to the economy. President Biden was in a unique position after the pandemic to take stock of all these mistakes and move the nation forward in positive directions in a decisive way in scale as well as in spirit and determination. That he has done so is more proof of the resilience of America.

LyrArc Article Gist
This report in the WSJ  shows that president Xi is pulling back from his signature economic policy to reduce wide gaps in wealth and opportunities in China. In 2021 this was a policy that Xi pushed to reduce inequalities that have built up over decades of hypergrowth. One tenth of the population owns 68% of the wealth in China creating an highly unequal society. Concerned about the future of the Communist party as disparities kept widening and 40% of the population was left behind, Xi early on in his first and second terms made tackling corruption and inequality part of his policy.  Yet the way China's economy is structured, its dependence on the construction industry for growth, and on local governments for investment, it is easier to tackle infrastructure projects than address widening gaps in society. Xi's efforts have led to slowdown in growth to 5% or less. With the US and Europe moving to shorter supply chains and moving supply chains to less integration with China, slowing growth to less than 4-5% presents a major challenge for China. Leading to a pull back from the Common Prosperity policies that Xi initiated and which are part of Communist party policy in its early period after 1949. A major problem for China says WSJ is that social security contributions revenue is 6.5% of GDP compared to 9% for advanced countries in the OECD, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Personal income taxes are 1.2% of GDP compared to 10% in UK and US. This prevents the better funding of programs for maintaining a better safety net and social support for the less well off in society. The pandemic followed by Ukraine war have added new urgency to the acceleration of the effort to build new supply chains, leading to new manufacturing innovation and manufacturing leadership in the US and European Union, and in countries such as Japan, India, and other parts of Asia. This too has made the goals of reducing inequalities and addressing the wide disparities in Chinese society more difficult with sharply slowing growth in China. This was also the experience of Japan and South Korea with decades of fast growth followed by sharp slowdown with unanticipated problems. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This is what our energy wars, our climate change wars are about in summary. Europe has moved faster than the US, India and China in cutting fossil fuels use over 20 years 2005 to 2025. Europe going from 1525 trillion watt hours to 792- cutting use by half. The US from 2900 to  2553 trillion watt hours just 12%. And China...China tripled its use. This has come at a price as the costs of renewables push up electricity prices beyond what homes and industry can support. UK electricity prices 80% higher than US and half of UK energy users plan to ration its use 2025. Half of electricity costs in UK come from cost and delivery, other half of costs from subsidies of renewables and other. In Germany high electricity costs are hobbling industry and reducing economic growth. Lower electricity prices make the US more attractive than Germany as a place to invest. Another way to look at it- US and Europe cut fossil fuel use by about 1100 trillion watt hours and China increased its use by 4200 trillion watt hours or 4 times what the US and Europe cut in 2024 over 2005. Adding India, Brazil this would be 5-6 times what the US and Europe saved in 2024 over 2005. The "And "strategy of combining reduction in fossil with building renewable capacity is working out compared to dumping fossil in one shove and going all out renewable. There is also the question of equity. China and India argue equity means we should be allowed to use some fossil with renewable for 2.5 billion people's needs. The other side of equity is the US saying the same as "no fossil period" strategy puts the needs of the large part of the population for lower costs of energy  pushed aside as wealthy classes say it is OK. Even when the savings through cuts and sacrifices in US and EU are cut down, cut down by 5-6 fold increase in China, India, Brazil alone. In this kind of climate change war it makes sense not to go with labels such as climate change denial DJT vs China climate change affirming, when China is diluting US-EU climate change entire twenty year savings of 2005-2024 by a factor of 4, 1100 trillion watt hours wiped out by China's 4200 trillion watt hours added. And India, Brazil taking this to a factor of 6. This is why a lot of the discussion with self-righteous indignation becomes less purposeful. What is clear is that every action to cut cost of living in US and EU for large parts of the people is an effort in the right direction as it frees up resources for the fight against climate change, the sense that we are all in the same boat and in the same struggle. The fight against cost of living is part of the long run struggle against climate change. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A recent Deutsche Bank study points to the pro-cyclical nature of oil prices in this decade where oil price increases do not lead to decreased worldwide consumption. The IEA forecast is for 1.64 million barrels of oil a day in increased coonsumption in 2013 compared to 2011, which hides a drop in consumption of 640,000 barrels a day in OECD countries. That is offset by higher demand in China, the Middle East and Russia. Middle East consumption is about 80% of consumption in China, and oil price increases lead to higher growth in these countries and Russia leading to increased oil consumption reinforcing a pro-cyclical cycle. What is not clearly understood is how this changes with weaker economic growth. Additional factor to consider is future increasing growth of oil consumption in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Vietnam and other developing countries that offset reductions in Chinese consumption as China's growth rate slows.

LyrArc Article Gist
The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

LyrArc Article Gist
Fears that the conflict in Syria might spill over and lead to a conflict with Iran pushed up oil prices. At the same time the new forecast by the International Energy Agency in early August 2012 showing a 20% decrease in demand growth in 2013, as a result of the economic slowdown in the U.S., Europe and China, acted to put a lid on oil price increases. Light sweet crude for September delivery was at $92.87 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange on August 10, 2012, and Brent crude was at $112.95 a barrel on the Intercontinental Exchange.

LyrArc Article Gist
Orlik reports that the link between China's GDP growth and lending has broken down as credit expansion is accompanied by slowing growth. Slowing credit growth and lowering GDP growth even further is the price China's ecnomic planners are willing to take to forge a new path of sustainable growth, increasing efficiency of investment and increasing domestic consumption. The ratio of China's credit outstanding to GDP has jumped to about 180% in 2012 from 123% in 2008. Rapid expansion of credit is one of the danger signals before a crisis according to the IMF. Turkey and China are facing danger signals according to this IMF danger indicator.

LyrArc Article Gist
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi will spend Tuesday night August 2 in Taipei, Taiwan. China has threatened severe consequences and Taiwanese forces are on alert. Yet with over $1 trillion in China's exports to US and EU in 2021 the response will have to take this into account as also the US and EU to redesign its supply chains. This is the first trip of a senior US official to Taiwan as Speaker Pelosi comes next to the Vice President to succeed the presidency. The US response to the Russian attack on Ukraine was made in Biden's word as a deterrent to China in its role in the Indo-Pacific region. The Pelosi trip may be a reflection of this policy that seeks to maintain the US position that Indo-Pacific is international waters, that US policy will continue as before undeterred by actions such as the Russian attack on Ukraine with the support of China. And that US will engage fully with allies in the Indo-Pacific- Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and Taiwan. And that is doing this with the cooperation of its allies in the region- Australia, Japan and India. US and EU imports from China are $541 and $522 billion over $1 trillion for 2022. Loss of even a significant portion of these exports from major tensions in the region would have a severe impact on Chinese economic growth. The US and EU are already engage in redesigning the supply chain and would also face problems in a transition similar to the gas rationing in Germany after cutoff of Russian supplies. The trade is too big a factor at this time. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. job growth slowed in February to just 20,000 jobs in nonfarm sector following strong gains in December and January. The 3 month average is 186,000 jobs created. Unemployment rate dropped to 3.8%. The figures are watched closely as Europe and China are showing slow growth. The European Central Bank said it will not increase interest rates till 2020 and announced fresh stimulus loans. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not expected to raise rates in the next few months. Economic output growth was 0.5% in the first quarter after 3% growth in 2018. Other reports show labor scarcity with wage growth outpacing inflation. 

LyrArc Article Gist
19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
China's new prime minister Li Keqiang makes his first foreign trip with a trade delegation for talks with Indian representatives and business leaders, showing the importance he places on India. India offers China's companies access to large opportunties in infrastructure development, and China can benefit from India in the area of information technology and pharmaceuticals. Trade is envisioned as expanding from $70 billion in 2012 to $100 billion by 2015, and expanding rapidly as the two economies grow. Economic contacts also would provide an anchor for future relations as China faces difficulties in its relations with Japan, and S. E. Asian countries, and a U.S. wary of China's capabilities. This was pointed out in the joint statement. Li Keqiang also emphasized this in an editorial page article in India's daily newspaper, the Hindu, saying India and China have "to work hand in hand," to promote Asia as "an anchor for world peace." A peaceful India-China trade and economic relationship opens the way for investment and participation in development by China alongside Japan, Germany, France, UK and the U.S. in India, as the next major source for global economic growth. This also serves to defuse Asian tensions as both economies grow, and increased contacts between cities in India and China with the twining of cities program launched in the meetings. India can use China's capabilities in infrastructure development, the two countries share the need for information sharing on lowcost solutions in healthcare, in managing urbanization, and solutions for clean water in rural areas, and use of IT solutions in development, where much remains to be accomplished through cooperation. Some of these themes are the focus of Li Keqiang in his efforts for urbanization in China. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Questions about the every 5 years 20th Party Congress of the CCP or Chinese Communist Party, and the 2300 representatives attending from all parts of China are answered in this report in The Guardian.  Xi Jinping is expected to get a third term. To outsiders in US and Europe it is all about power in China, to insiders in China it is about China making it through the 100 years since the 1901 revolution and the tumult, the chaos of the first 100 years, and now a period of modernization and growing incomes,  the need to create jobs, tackle climate change, ensure a good future for the Chinese people. 2300 party members representing millions of party members in China attend the gathering. New appointments and retirements take place at this Congress. Of this there are 200 elite members of the Central Committee with voting rights. This central committee is responsible for electing a 25 member Politburo, of which the seven most senior persons are appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee. Xi Jinping is the General Secretary, the most senior position in this hierarchy. Age related retirements are at 68 years and a new Politburo standing committee is announced at each Congress. After the Bo Xilai effort to take power and take China in a new and unknown direction, and the gradual loss of the party's respect from corruption and abuses of power by local officials, Xi Jinping sensed problems in the future and conducted a anti-corruption campaign. Most of the system of government set up during the Deng and Jiang Zemin years after 1980 remains in place with Jinping calling for a revival of China, the next stage of modernization, under the banner of the CCP. The result of the anti-corruption campaign and a third term assumed by Xi including lifting of a term limit for heading the CCP, gives Xi Jinping an opportunity to shape the future for China as Deng did after 1980. Jinping in the manner of Deng sees the CCP as the organization that can continue the modernization and growth of China. The model set by Deng and Zemin of local autonomy for economy and centralized overall direction continues under Jinping who is General Secretary since 2012. China has made rapid growth during the period 2000-2022, but faces challenges of reorienting its economy away from dependence on a tight economic export oriented relationship with the US and EU, as supply chains are being shifted after the pandemic. This means more unemployment and need for careful economic planning and investment to create jobs in other sectors, and to meet the challenges of unequal distribution of wealth in China after hypergrowth that hurt China in some ways, and in the climate change effects of use of coal other fossil fuels. As focus of interest is on Jinping externally, within China it is these three challenges that must be uppermost in the minds of the 20th Congress members. Much of this stems from the tumult of the century that began with the 1901 revolution through Japanese invasion and upheavals in the 60's and 70's, leading to the rare period of stability and growth in the last 20 years. Jinping like Deng and Zemin has personal memories of the anguish of this period and the tumult, the chaos of the 20th century for China, and the yearning for stability with modernization.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
During 2012 and 2013 the U.S. put pressure on China and India to cut oil imports from Iran to increase the effectiveness of sanctions. As negotiations eased the sanctions, China increased oil imports in 2014 by 30% in 2014 over the prior year. China's Foreign Ministry sees a "win-win spirit" in the nuclear deal that opens up economic relations with Iran. Analysts say China has setup three new storage facilities on its eastern coast with about 45 million barrels of new capacity, which could be filled with new supplies as its growth slows and demand decreases. China's imports were about 7 million barrels a day in June 2015.

LyrArc Article Gist
Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says India's commitment by 2070 demonstrates real leadership from Mr. Modi of India.The Guardian says India's commitment to net zero emissions by 2070 is realistic considering that it is decades away from its peak in economic growth and energy consumption compared to US or even China. Energy consumption is expected to grow faster than any other country in the next few years. India's population is also expected to pass that of China as the largest in the world. The Guardian says climate experts who did the modeling have said this was the most realistic scenario for India - to achieve net zero emissions by 2070. This also means India's peak energy emissions will be reached by 2030. Eminent climate ecologist Nicholas Stern says - "This was a very significant moment for the summit. This action might mean India's annual natural greenhouse gas emissions could peak by 2030. This demonstrates real leadership from a country whose emissions per capita are about one third of the global average."  Also significant is Mr. Modi's pledge to deliver on 5 commitments 1. 50% of India's power to be generated by renewable energy by 2030. 2. Increase of 500 gigawatts of renewable energy including solar by 2030. 3. Reducing carbon emissions by 1 billion tons by 2030. 4. Reduce carbon intensity of the economy by 45% by 2030. This relates to how efficiently energy is used to generate 1 unit of economic GDP. With 1.3 billion people India is the third largest emitter of carbon dioxide- at about 3 billion tons- after the US and China. In growth terms this means India is going to grow very differently from the way China did in 2000-2020 with its many highly polluting industrial plants. The head of the US Renewable Energy Agency Mr.Birol says in a BBC intervew that the cement and steel plants alone of China have more emissions than the whole of the European Union's total emissions. Much of this comes from old plants and old technologies with surplus production of steel from what is now a bygone era of excess, inefficiency and chaotic growth. India plans to bring climate change emissions and energy efficiency through renewables into its Gat Shakti master plan for the country's economic.development. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Bangladesh is seen as doing better than India and Pakistan in life expectancy, hunger, fertility rates, and other key development indicators. The new Padma Bridge over the Ganges river operational in 2019 will link different parts of the country and is expected to add 1% to GDP growth. Other infrastructure projects are being planned with $30 billion in projects planned with China including a new port south of Chittagong. The Vision 2021 Plan plans to take Bangladesh out of the poorest nation group by 2021, the 50th anniversary of independence. Germany is the second largest donor and the gender equality in Bangladesh with coeducation in schools is seen by experts as unique among all Muslim countries. The growth of Dhaka and the social and economic change from 5 million garment workers, mostly women and rural could lead to social and cultural change that may be underestimated, says DW.com, providing the view from Germany. DW.com also warns that there are risks for Bangladesh in relying on remittances from Gulf countries, and in not diversifying so that it is not dependent on textile exports alone. Overall German view is that development aid works, and Bangladesh is welcomed from that perspective in Germany. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US Russia relations improve in 2025. The new national security document of US put out by the DJT Administration says that Russia is not a threat.  It sticks to migration and western identities when facing civilizational erasure over next two decades as key threats to the US. It poses questions for the European Union, Germany and France, yet also offers away out of the "mess" in Ukraine with the Russians saying NATO was too close to their borders as the real issue, and the US not aligning itself with NATO reducing big power tensions including nuclear arsenal expansion. Germany rebuilding the Bundeswehr and it's military offers a rebalancing of the military situation yet is not the long term solution to the Ukraine problem, NATO limiting it's role and the US limiting it's role in NATO offers a solution that preserves the long term interests of Western Europe(Germany, France, Italy, UK, Spain) and preserves world peace and dialogue. It also promotes integration of India and Russia into the world trade and world economy as it diversifies from the dominance of China in world trade and the world economy of the last 20 years of free trade that deindustrialized US and Europe. What this national security document does not say is that China's dominance in world trade and the errors of the US, Europe, Japan, Russia, India in world trading relationships and their economic approach that made this possible is the central issue and calls for diversification of supply channels in the world economy. This shifts the direction of the world in a peaceful direction where the US, Japan and Europe, India can compete in economic growth and trade with China on equal terms. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
One negative effect of the trade war with the U.S. is an increased emphasis on energy security and increased use of coal in China. After China committed to goals for climate change coal use declined in 2014, after reaching a high in 2013. The attack on Saudi oil facilities showed risk in its reliance on Saudi oil. China's import dependency for oil reached an all time high of 72% in 2018, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review. Gradually the commitment to climate change and lower use of coal has changed since 2016 with the withdrawal of the U.S. from the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Initially after the U.S. withdrawal under president Trump China made bold commitment to lead the fight against climate change but has since wavered. In an October 2019 speech Premier Li Kequiang called for the development of the coal industry to ensure energy security.  As China's economy slowed in 2019 in the face of U.S. tariffs and a trade war with the U.S. efforts are being made to increase infrastructure investment which has driven coal use higher. China's steel output reached a record of 750 million metric tons in 2019. The amount of coal fired capacity under construction in China now exceeds the rest of the world combined, much of it from plants permitted before 2017, according to Global Energy Monitor. China is also expected to become the world's largest importer of natural gas by 2020. Even the Russian gas fields from Siberia supply only a fifth of China's energy demands in 2020.  China has made large strides in renewable energy helping it meet its Paris Agreement targets. Renewable energy is about 10% of China's energy mix, but its use showed growth of 29% in 2018, making up half of the world's growth. China's use of coal in the energy mix has dropped to 58% in 2018 from 72% in 2008, according to BP 2019 Statistical Review, as a result of renewable energy investments. At the Madrid Climate Conference China renewed its commitment to the Paris Climate Change Agreement. Now it is a balancing act keeping in mind energy security and economic growth along with the need for clear skies and better air quality. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Signs of a serious bubble in house prices in Canada. Home prices in February 2011 rose 8.8% from the year before, to 365,000 Canadian dollars. This is more than double the average home price of C$158,145 in 1999, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association. A comparison with the U.S. shows home prices going up 58% between 1999 and 2006, according to the National Association of Realtors, and falling 18% after the subprime mortgage crisis. By contrast home prices in Canada went down in 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis but are now back up and surpassed the previous high. This suggests the Canadian real estate market is facing a serious bubble comparable to or exceeding the bubble in the U.S. Trends that have supported the market such as Chinese buyers in Vancouver and Toronto, depend largely on the strength of the high economic growth in China and overseas buyers. Other weaknesses- the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals pointed out in a study in January that of the 400,000 first time home buyers during 2010, about 50,000 would have high-debt service ratios if interest rates, now at between 2-4%, were to rise to 5%. The Canada economst at Capital Economics, David Madani, says he expects a correction of 25% in the next 3 years, as this boom unwinds. He points out that house prices are now 5.5 times disposable income per worker, compared to an historical average of 3.5....

LyrArc Article Gist
At 0.3% growth in 2024 the OECD predicts German economic growth lower than that in France or Italy. High oil and gas prices, worker shortages, and lack of government subsidies to compete with highly subsidized solar and EV's China in a level playing field, have hit German industry hard. The adjoining article looks at France and what it is doing right.