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Analysts see the likelihood of Greece exiting the eurozone at over 50%. The actions of the ECB under Mario Draghi to provide funding to weak banks through the Long Term Financing Operation have reduced the effect the effects of contagion from a Greek default spreading to banks in other EU countries. The fiscal pact signed in Jan 2012 at the EU summit with automatic penalties for countries lacking budget discipline provides Angela Merkel more room with her domestic political base to support the EFSF's capacity to help other eurozone countries. Greece with its deteriorating economic situation would then be considered a special case.

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BP took a writedown of $5 billion for the second quarter of 2012, for some U.S. refineries, a suspended Alaska oil project and shale gas resources. Of this $2.68 billion was for the U.S. refining business. And $1.50 billion was for the suspension of the Liberty oil project in Alaska because of higher costs. BP's clean replacement cost profit was $3.69 billion, a decline of 35% from the $5.71 billion the prior year. BP's writedown of shale gas assets was because of very low natural gas prices, a situation faced also by Shell and Exxon. Total oil and gas production declined by 7.4% to 2.275 million barrels of oil equivalent a day. The extended maintenance program and major repair and improvement work after the 2011 oil spill led to increased costs and lower production in the North Sea, Angola, and the Gulf of Mexico.

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Angela Merkel's Christian Democratic Union party suffered a major defeat in North Rhine-Westphalia. Exit polls show the SPD Social Democrats party winning 38.9% of the vote, increasing its vote by 4.4%. The CDU won only 26.3% of the vote, dropping 8.3% from the last election. The SPD state premier, Hannelore Kraft, proved to be a popular campaigner. Her opponent Mr Rottgen made debt-financed spending an issue and told voters this was a referendum on Merkel's policies for Europe. Ms. Kraft said after the win: "We made people the central focus again." This has overtones of the victory of Francois Hollande in France, a few days ago, and shows a fundamental shift in Europe. German media described it as debacle for the conservatives considering the size of the margin between SPD and CDU. The Greens secured 11.6% of the votes and this will enable Ms. Kraft to govern easily compared to an earlier minority government she led. This state is the largest in Germany, with one of every five Germans living here, with the capital in Dusseldorf. The Pirates party secured 7.8% of the vote, and the Free Democrats staging a recovery with 8.3% of the vote under a popular young leader Christian Lindner. Upto this point the SPD lacked an effective leader to challenge Merkel. The sense now is that Ms. Kraft will emerge as the SPD's challenger to Merkel in elections in 2013, or earlier. French president Hollande goes to Berlin on May 16, 2012, and the SPD win is expected to strengthen his position in negotiations....

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European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, addressing the European Parliament in Brussels on April 25, 2012, supported both sides in the issues facing the eurozone, calling for continued vigilance on structural reforms to improve competitiveness of countries in the eurozone such as Spain and Italy, and at the same time saying it was imperative to generate economic growth. He told the European parliament: "The uncertainty about the present situation is very, very, high... Any exit strategy is premature given the current economic situation." Saying that the fiscal compact had been negotiated recently to control spending, yet what Europe needed was also a growth compact- "but my most present thought right now is to have a growth compact." He emphasized that it was now upto governments and banks to pick up the ball. The ECB's achievement was buying time with its 3 year loans to banks in Spain and Italy and other EU countries in Dec. 2011-March 2012, which he described as no ordinary achievement. Francois Hollande and Angela Merkel seized on Draghi's comments to show they were doing the right thing. Merkel conceded that growth was needed, saying sustainable initatives would be good for Europe, that what Germany was opposing was simply stimulus spending that would increase debt without the structural reforms to improve competitiveness. Hollande for his part said he would call for eurozone bonds to pay for industrial and infrastructure projects, and a financial transactions tax....

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This is huge- for Germany, for France, and for the European Union. After initial hesitation and a decade of not looking ahead, Germany under Angela Merkel is finally not just looking ahead to its vision for Germany but doing this as a part of the larger European community. And the European Central Bank after its initial lack of community spirit, is paving the way with its own actions for the Europe wide recovery with a significant increase in lending to EU countries.  Germany's finance ministry has agreed to spend 130 billion euros on more than 50 initiatives to promote growth in Germany. No longer is the government looking at the car industry as it did in the past. It is looking beyond to what Merkel calls the "profound upheaval" coming from climate change and digitisation. For Merkel after the changes caused by the pandemic something more had to be done- "We just could'nt introduce a traditional stimulus package. It had to be done with an eye to the future, so that is what we especially emphasized."  This also brings together France's Macron and Germany's Merkel in a combined effort to bring Europe up to face the future with confidence. It is amazing how the pandemic has changed minds in Europe. From the long drawn out period since 2008 when traditional policy ideas and austerity thinking prevailed, to the idea today that this is no way to face the future with confidence for Europe to be back on its own feet, for hope to return. Instead of partnering in austerity with the Dutch and the Swedes, the finance ministry is now looking to France, Italy and Spain, considering the common pain of the core European countries during the pandemic and looking to the future.  Merkel moved to circumvent the traditional Bundestag's refusal to permit debt sharing  across the euro area by producing 500 billion euros of grants for hard hit businesses across the European Union. As Macron says it was a necessary  step- " What is sure is that this 500 billion euros will not be repaid by the beneficiaries.... We are proposing to do real transfers (of money) ... that's a major step." Forecasts from Capital Economics and other forecasters show the European Union's major economies of France, Italy and Germany rebounding quickly in 2021 after the blow in 2020, in a V shaped recovery with growth of close to 6% in France, and higher in Italy because of the bigger hit taken there than Germany. The strong U.S. jobs report with addition of 2.5 million jobs for May shows that the rebound can be sharp upward swing if the policy, will and community spirit is summoned up by leaders and people, no matter what happened in the past decade. It is also based on having the right spirit that knows about investing where it really counts for the people - in infrastructure, health, public services, and avoiding the misallocation of resources and spending that happened before. ...

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This France24 report looks at the question of whether the policies of four term German chancellor Angela Merkel emboldened Russia under president Putin to launch the invasion of Ukraine. FR24's interview with the vice president of the German Marshall Fund and head of its Berlin office, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, shows there are many reasons why Merkel's policies were serious errors that ignored caution from past experience and from other western leaders in the US and Eastern Europe. Kleine-Brockhoff says that "Europe did not go wrong, Germany and France did. France and Germany tend to speak for the rest of Europe. Bit these mis-assessments were made in Paris and Berlin, not elsewhere. Eastern Europe didn't go wrong. Northern Europe did'nt go wrong."  Kleine-Brockhoff says the war in Ukraine calls for an urgent re-assessment of the German and French policy towards Russia. "Not only is the post Cold-War order crumbling before our eyes, so are the strategies employed by Germany and France." Under particular scrutiny comes Merkel's policy, and policy supported by Steinmeier of the SPD, that took German dependence on Russian energy supplies from 36% during the annexation of Crimea to 55% in March 2022 with the invasion of Ukraine. Germany's conservative Die Welt has this to say- "What Germany and Europe have experienced over the last days is nothing short of the reversal of the Merkel policies of guaranteeing peace and freedom through treaties with despots," describing Merkel's policies as "an error." About France Kleine-Brockhoff says there were lofty ambitions under Sarkozy and Macron of European strategic autonomy, which did not correspond to reality, to fantasies of European armies when there was nothing but NATO. It is not dialogue with Putin and Russia that was a problem, says Laure Delcour, international relations expert at the Sorbonne Nouvelle in Paris. Some form of dialogue is necessary she says, but the dialogue has to have clear objectives. We must not confuse cause with consequence, she says. We know  that NATO enlargement had a big impact on Russia's perceptions, but the real problem is how Russia responded to enlargement. "In this case the problem is the consequence."  ...

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In the end only concerted pressure from the U.S. including the personal intervention of president Trump, calls from Republican senators to Prince Abdulaziz, Saudi energy minister, salvaged a deal for OPEC+ oil cuts. The Saudis insisted Mexico cut production by 300,000 barrels a day, Mexico stood firm at 100,000 barrels a day. As the Mexican energy negotiator Ms Nahle withdrew to call Mexican president Lopez Obrador, the Saudi energy minister called this "disrespectful." Then president Trump intervened with calls and offered to make up with additional 300,000 barrels a day of cuts from the U.S. North Dakota senator called Prince Abdulaziz and stated that it could affect the U.S.-Saudi relationship if the Saudis did not come to an agreement. The agreement is for 23 countries to in total withdraw 9.7 billion barrels a day from the market, or 13% of world production. Oil production is expected to fall by as much as 30 million barrels a day in April 2020 as a result of the pandemic so it is not clear how much this will raise oil prices, yet it averts a complete collapse of oil prices from the $22 today when markets open on Monday April 13, 2020.  The U.S. Canada, Brazil and G20 countries outside OPEC will make a combined 3.7 million barrels a day in cuts. Saudis, Kuwait and United Arab Emirates combined will cut 2 million barrels a day above their quota.  In addition to warning both sides Saudis and Russia to come to an agreement, president Trump threatened to retaliate to protect U.S. producers from very low oil prices sending many into bankruptcy. Prince Abdulaziz took a tough stand with Mexico and other OPEC countries to present a unified stand. He is the son of the Saudi king and took the energy ministry in fall 2019. He has had difficulty in managing OPEC plus Russia called OPEC+ as its new chief with divergent views from small producers such as Angola and large producers such as Russia. At a conference in February he continued the standoff with Russia saying Russia would regret not making the production cuts he was calling for. The split with Russia after a 3 year collaboration for cuts ended in an all out price war right in the middle of a pandemic.  The Russians underestimated the size and impact of the pandemic. The Saudis took a firm position. Only president Trump's swift and active intervention and offering to make up Mexico's share of cuts saved the day for all oil producing countries, who would all be severely hurt by sinking oil prices below $20 a barrel.     ...

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Angela Merkel of Germany and other EU leaders decided to back "global supply chains" and declined to support the EU Commission in Brussels at a virtual summit attended by 27 leaders of the EU states. It was also attended briefly by Joe Biden. Ursula von Leyen said 21 million doses of vaccine had been shipped from EU to Britain, of which 1 million were from Astra Zeneca and the rest from Pfizer and other makers of vaccines. A total of 77 million doses made in the EU wer shipped to 33 countries since 1 December 2020. Governments of Netherlands, Ireland, Belgium and Sweden were not in favor of blocking shipments from the UK because of the effect on supply chains. Pfizer is strongly opposed to the move to block shipments. Merkel emphasized the need to respect the global supply chains while making efforts to ensure EU countries get a fair share of vaccine supplies. The problems of UK vs Britain on vaccine supplies comes from the yield problems at a Belgium plant of Astra Zeneca and the company's refusal to divert supplies from the UK. Of the 120 million promised only 30 million could be delivered to EU. The UK's contract with Astra Zeneca states that supplies from its plants in Oxford and Staffordshire must be delivered to Britain first. The UK is facing an acute shortage of second doses even though it has given 31 million jabs. At this time 45 out of 100 people in the UK have jabs, compared with 13 out of 100 in the EU.   ...

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Munich Security Conference is being organized by Christoph Heusgen, the conference chair, who was an adviser to Angela Merkel and previous German  Representative at the United Nations. It will be held Feb 14-16 at the Bayerischer Hof hotel in Munich. JD Vance will be attending for the US with alarge delegation including Keith Kellogg US DJT envoy to Ukraine and Zelensky of Ukraine. German federal elections are on Feb. 23, 2025 with CDU's Merz holding a lead. Pete Hegseth Defense Secretary is not attending the conference. Hegseth has expressed views skeptical about Ukraine. Mark Rutte, the former Dutch PM is attending as Secretary General of NATO. The Munich Security Conference Report cites DJT and says- "Indeed, the notion of 'resource scarcity' has become a central premise of Republican foreign policy thinking." Germany barely spends 2% on defense. DJT wants to see 5%. DJT's comments are published in the Munich Security Report- "We were being ripped off by European nations both on trade and on NATO." "If you don't pay, we're not going to protect you." ...

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NIgeria needs $60 billion betwen 2008 to 2012 to fund oil development costs, its share of the funding of joint projects with international oil companies. But the Nigerian state oil company needs to borrow half that amount. And credit markes are tight and will remain so for a long time so where will it find the money to fund shortfalls. Nigerian foreign minister said last week that production was just 1.5 million barrels a day. Observers pegged production at 2 million barrels a day. Violence in the Niger Delta is raising production costs ant CEO of Amni Nigerian oil company says costs are 250 percent higher than offshore counting security costs and kidnapping insurance for employees. Other problems with west african production are the high costs of developing the offshore fields and their rapid depletion rates as international oil companies seek to recoup their costs quickly. So even as new drilling takes place in offshore fields in Angola and Guinea the outlook is not so good. Consultancy John Mckenzie sees production declining by 2013. And PFC Energy estimates sees production peak at 7.1 million barrels a day in 2014 from current 5.8 million barrels. In the past African production has made up for declines in places like Russia and Mexico, now this is less likely. ...

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German chancellor Angela Merkel arrived for a meeting of eurozone leaders in Brussels on October 23, 2011. She said: "I believe that now we have reached a more realistic view of the situation in Greece and that we will provide the necessary means to be able to protect the euro." Germany has insisted that bondholders take writeoffs of between 50-60% of Greek debt so that Greece would have sustainable debt. A review of Greece's debt by the European Commission in coordination with the ECB and the IMF shows that Greece's debt situation is totally unsustainable and will require a bondholder writeoff of around 60%. according to that report a 60% writeoff for bondholders would be required to bring Greece's debt below 110 percent of GDP by 2020. This has supported the German "realistic" view and Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg, who heads the euro group of finance ministers stated that "we agreed yesterday (Friday, Oct. 21) that we have to have a significant increase in the banks' contribution." France also backed away from the plan it was supporting for the European Financial Stability Facility (the fund established to lend to troubled countries) to borrow from the European Central Bank, something Germany opposes. French finance minister Francois Baroin, said the issue was "not a definitive point of discussion for us,... what matters is what works." The Dutch support the Germans on these issues and Dutch finance minister, Jan Kees de Jager, said the use of the European central bank was "no longer an option." Options being considered are for the European Financial Stability Facility to offer insurance against a portion of losses on Italian and Spanish bonds....

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This report in the WSJ shows in an extraordinary detailed way going back 20 years how under each administration Bush, Obama, Trump in the US and Angela Merkel in Germany, Hollande and Macron in France, the serious differences in the world view and thinking between president Putin of Russia and western leaders were simply ignored or overlooked. Mr. Putin truly believed in Ukraine and Russia as one people, researched history on his own and wrote an essay that made him more convinced than ever about his views that separation of Ukraine from Russia was an artificial construct, more so in the last two years.  By integrating the German and European Union economies with Russia and China without coming to terms with the large separation in views of the world and ignoring Russian views because of its economic size as an economy the size of France, both Merkel and Obama's policies failed to grasp what was happening. This report shows in much detail each event since 2005 that led to increasing distrust by Putin of western leaders.  The integration of the economies of the west and the integration of supply chains with China and Russia continued even after serious concerns had developed during the Trump administration. US and European business was operating on a completely different path not taking this into account in any way. It was only in the Biden administration and after the election of Scholz in Germany in 2021 that the situation was becoming clear. On the other side Ukraine itself and its people had changed in ways that were not anticipated by people in Germany or Russia, much less the leaders in Germany or Russia. There was a genuine sense that Ukraine was a national identity leading to the Ukraine resistance and a prolonged conflict. Brendan Simms, Cambridge historian shows how Europe went through conflicts and wars in its history as each of the major European nations sought advantage from 1453 to the present in his book, "Europe- The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present." Small gains were made in these wars that dragged on bringing great suffering to ordinary people.These wars involved England, France, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Sweden, Denmark and Russia. ...

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Germany's calls for closer political and fiscal union for the eurozone countries to complement and support the euro currency arrangement. German chancellor Merkel calls it "more Europe," "step by step." It all hinges on French president Hollande and how well the Socialist party does in the elections to the National Assembly on June 10 and June 17, 2012. If he does well and gets a working majority with other like minded parties he will not need the support of parties that are opposed to giving up sovereignty. Hollande's mentor is Jacques Delors, a former president of the European Commission and a strong supporter of the idea of European Union. England under the Conservatives remains Euro-skeptic. France and Germany were driven closer by the idea of European Union by necessity, because of history and three wars. The European Union had strong support after 1945 from French and German leaders, Monnet and Adenauer, who struggled with political opposition but won over skeptics, with the process continued by German chancellor Kohl, a mentor of Angela Merkel....

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Francois Hollande is sworn in as French President on May 15, 2012. He will go to Berlin the same day to meet Angela Merkel, the German Chancellor.

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Strack of DW.com reports on the 2016 CDU convention where Merkel received 89.5% of the vote. Merkel receives applause for the burqa ban, and her denunciation of populist hate sentiment, of Islamism and parallel societies, parallel cultures. The best passages of Merkel's speech says Strack, were about reunification, about how she started in politics from the natural sciences, her start at SPD, then shifting  quickly to the "Democratic Beginning" leading to the CDU. "Head into the open," "that is where freedom is," and says Strack she had the hall listening to a chancellor speaking with emotion when in the past she has been cool and reserved. Parallels to the 1994 campaign of Kohl for a fourth term when enthusiasm came only from "generation" Kohl are being made.

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The EU has pushed the date for France to reduce its deficit to 3% once before -to 2015 giving France 2 more years. French president Hollande faced with unemployment at 11% in March 2014, has set the task of convincing Brussels to allow more time after losing badly in local elections and facing opposition to continued austerity in his own party. France is expected to come up with a plan to present to the EU for cutting public spending by 50 billion euros over 3 years 2015-2017. In the televised address on March 31, Hollande put the priority on growth, saying "Its not a question of cutting spending for the sake of it." After election in May 2012, Hollande and prime minister Rajoy of Spain went to Brussels together to push for a growth oriented policy in the eurozone. This time he has support from Socialist Party leader in Italy, Matteo Renzi, who is also introducing growth oriented policies to reduce unemployment and boost the economy. The two leaders faceoff with Angela Merkel on the need to relax austerity policies in the eurozone....

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Brinkmauer and Pfister of the German magazine Der Spiegel interview German Chancellor Angela Merkel in September 2017. The interview covers a range of topics from whether Merkel is addicted to power, why she chose to run for a fourth term, revolving door for CDU politicians as lobbyists for the automobile industry, the AfD right wing party, the refugee crisis and the CDU's historic policy of controlled immigration, and whether democracy is losing strength.  In characteristic Merkel fashion the chancellor takes up the idea of her addiction to power by saying she is careful not to let this happen to her by reading critical articles in the press and having her staff bring critical reports. Her discussion with her constituents in her electoral district are also frank and open, more so in 2017. About the idea that Helmut Kohl's fourth term as chancellor being not good for Germany and for the CDU, Merkel responds that she has given it considerable thought. She found that she still has the intellectual curiosity to learn new things, understands that she has much to learn about how the country and the world is changing. This has been decisive in her decision to run.  Merkel believes that someone who has worked in politics should be able to work in private industry following historic practice in Germany. On the government links with the automobile industry Merkel says her approach has been to look at what was best for an industry employing 800,000 people in Germany, yet deplores the diesel emissions cheating at VW. Has democracy lost momentum after the U.S. elections and the refugee crisis? Merkel says democracy is still strong, and that she will do everything to strengthen democracy in Germany and other parts of the world.  Merkel's view is that it is important that there be counterweights in democratic systems. In this way democracy is strong in America, and also in Poland and Hungary. The chancellor cites high voter turnout of 82% in 1998, 79% in 2002, 78% in 2009. Since then she says in 2009 it dropped to 71% and 2013  72%, yet  expects that with the issues in this election people will come out to vote in larger numbers.  For many years Merkel is seen as co-opting the issues of the left parties and the SPD, being careful to move to the centre. Der Spiegel puts this idea forward to the chancellor by asking her if she is the best SPD chancellor Germany ever had.  In her matter of fact style Merkel responds that voters do not think of it this way, simply expect her to her job as best as she can possibly do it.       ...

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Ms. Annegret Kramp-Krarrenbauer, elected leader of the CDU party in 2018 with the support of Angela Merkel, will not run for chancellor in next years election and will resign from her position by the end of the year. She will continue as Germany's defense minister. After losses for the CDU in recent elections and the embarrassment of local CDU leaders in Thuringia supporting the far right AfD, AKK as she is known decided to step down. Angela Merkel has decided not to run for chancellor again. Germany is set to chair the EU in the second half of 2020, and Merkel is no longer seen as a leader of influence. The Nationalist Alternative for Germany AfD has gained votes in recent elections following the 2015-2016 migrant crisis, with large numbers of refugees from North Africa and Arab world landing in Greece and Turkey and walking to Hungary, Austria and Germany. Merkel's handling of the crisis with acceptance of a million refugees in 2015-2016 unsettled European and German politics. Why? One way of looking at it is that in the same way that the U.S. took in Chinese imported goods ending in the Trump tariffs war, at some point it just becomes too big to handle. That ended up at $1 billion a day in imports from China when president Trump called it off and accused Obama Democrats, Bush Republicans, of betraying the country. Putting it into perspective Germany with one fourth of the population of the U.S. took in about twice the number of refugees in just one year 2015-2016 that the U.S. took in 10 years 2005-2015. The U.S. took in 675,000 immigrants between 2005-2015. This is as if the U.S. took in something like 20 million immigrants in a short period of 1 year on an equivalent basis- though the cultural impact is even greater in a nation like Germany that is like Japan an historically immigrant averse nation. All this happened too quickly for Germany to handle for its fragile cultural fabric. Much of the initial outpouring of support and positive sentiment came from the sense of having gone through World War II and the refugees in that and the early post war period, the need to return in the same spirit support Germany had received. Over time it eroded support for the Christian Democratic Union and Merkel. That Merkel could have done this is itself a small miracle. Now the rebuilding has to begin. Adenauer's CDU and the socialist SPD party of Willy Brandt now have less than 50% support, only with the Greens Party do they make up 50%. The question now is can the CDU, and the SPD which has fallen to 14% in elections, make it back and what kind of future makeup political parties will have in Germany, how the social fabric can be restored. AKK's achievement is to mend relations between the liberal Merkel wing of the CDU and conservatives from Bavaria (CSU) over immigration.  Candidates for CDU leadership are Armin Laschet, Jens Spahn, and Friedrich Merz. Laschet premier of North Rhine-Westphalia has Merkel's support. Looking back too much attention was taken up by the euro crisis, and too little was done in the areas of infrastructure, inequality gaps, education, child care, under Merkel's leadership and of the preceding SPD years, much like what happened under Bush and Obama administrations in the U.S. where wars, economic crises led to neglect on issues that affect lives of ordinary working families. ...

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Germany's Chancellor, Angela Merkel announced that she will not seek reelection. She will finish her term in 2021 and retire from politics. She led the CDU party for 18 years and Germany for thirteen years. She started out as a youth leader in the communist German Democratic Republic shortly before the collapse of the Berlin Wall. After reunification she was given roles in the government by Chancellor Kohl of the CDU, and was favored by Kohl.  During her years in office the CDU moved to the centre adopting some of the policies of the Social Democrats party. Merkel's last two terms were marked by her leadership of the European Union in tackling the debt crisis in Greece and other countries. Her leadership of the CDU was challenged by conservative leaders from Bavaria of the CSU party who had different views than Merkel on immigration and accepting wartime and economic refugees. By the beginning of her current term in office the CDU and the Social Democrats Party which alternated in running Germany in the postwar period had lost support as voters shifted their allegiances to parties on the right such as the AfD opposing immigration, and parties on the left, and to the Greens party advocating environmental issues. One of the main drawbacks during this period were the austerity policies during Merkel's terms in office that were implemented in the EU leading to higher unemployment before a tenuous recovery, and the lack of building infrastructure. The acceptance of a large number of refugees the official tally being about 890,000 entering Germany in 2017 and 200,000 in 2018, has strained the system and created tensions in society. About 480,000 had applied for asylum in Germany by the end of December 2017. Merkel defends her decision to accept refugees in these numbers, yet she says she was wholly unprepared for the influx of refugees that happened in 2017 and the year before. She says she wishes she had many more years experience to prepare herself for handling a crisis of this kind. The decision has created dissension in Germany especially in the eastern part which was part of the former communist German Democratic Republic.  ...

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The first signs of a change in Germany's position to promoting growth in Greece came when German chancellor Angela Merkel told CNBC on May 15, 2012: "I have the will, the determination to keep Greece in the euro zone." She added that if Greece's leaders are looking for "stimulus to be pursued for growth in the euro zone, which we could pursue in the interest of Greece, we're open for this. Germany is open for this." The Social Democrats, SPD opposition leaders have long said that Merkel is able to change positions as the situation changes. Looking back she even disassociated herself from her mentor German chancellor Kohl when he was not willing to disclose the names of donors for illegal donations. This has given her the flexibility that another Christian Democratic party leader Schauble lacked in leading Germany. She has also seen poll numbers favoring the CDU dissipate quickly before the 2005 elections and is aware how quickly situations can change, as is happening now with the public in France, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and eastern european EU countries growing weary of strict austerity policies pushed by the CDU. A faction of the CDU pushed for strict austerity policies at the recent CDU convention in Leipzig, Germany. Merkel told the CDU about charges that she had shifted on a number of core issues such as nuclear energy, social issues, minimum wage, and euro zone bailouts- "Our political compass has not changed. The context is changing. This is a time of epic change."...

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A ZDF poll in Dec. 2016 shows 64% of the German people support chancellor Merkel's decision to run for fourth term. Of CDU supporters 89% support Merkel. If the election were held today CDU/CSU would win 36%, SPD 21%, Greens 11% and FDP 5%. Schulz is a lot more popular than Sigmar Gabriel in the SPD. About 51% of the German people support Martin Schulz, current head of the European parliament, Gabriel gets only 29%. With SPD supporters Schulz has 64%. Merkel could form a government with Greens and FDP support. See the related article on Greens and CDU positions coming closer.

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As Japanese prime minister Noda prepares to restart the Oi nuclear plant in June 2012, former prime minister Naoto Kan, who was premier during the Fukushima nuclear disaster, answers questions in a parliamentary inquiry. He says he realized how dangerous nuclear power can be when it got to the point where the evalcuation of Tokyo was being considered, Japan was then on "the verge of national collapse." His fears were that a number of meltdowns could together " release into the air and sea many times, no, many dozens of times, many hundreds of times the radiation released by Chernobyl." The Japanese public has focussed on the parliamentary hearings because the previous inquiry is thought to have been perfunctory, and not really examined in depth all the issues the Fukushima disaster had raised, and the general feeling is that a proper public dialogue had not taken place. In contrast in Germany the issues had been discussed openly, and the Angela Merkel government which had been receptive to nuclear power reversed its stand on nuclear power. Germany is phasing out dependence on nuclear energy. Kan pointed out that the "nuclear village," the network of nuclear power companies, bureaucrats, and researchers, had hijacked national nuclear policy and was putting Japan back on the same path. He went so far as to compare it with the situation facing Gorbachev in Russia after Chernobyl: "Gorbachev said in his memoirs that the Chernobyl accident exposed the sickness of the Soviet system. The Fukushima accident did the same for Japan." In his assessment of what happened Kan said: "It is impossible to ensure safety sufficiently to prevent the risk of a national collapse. Experiencing the accident convinced me that the best way to make nuclear plants safe is not to rely on them, but rather to get rid of them."...

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Major decline in oil prices in Oct. 2014 as prices drop to $81 per barrel and are forecast to reach $70. U.S. oil production increased by about 56% or 3.1 million barrels a day since 2004. U.S. demand for gas and fuel declined 8% compared to 2004. Initially instability and wars in the Middle East sustained high oil prices in 2012-2013. Yet with growing output from shale and other sources in N. America and slowing economies of Europe and China, the situation reached a point in 2014 where supply exceeds demand. This shift more than offsets any instability in trouble spots. The situation affects the U.S. consumer favorably with an estimate of $1 billion in savings for American consumers with every one cent drop in price at the gas pump, by one estimate from Deutsche Bank analysts. Typical American families gained an extra $50 a month from the decline June to October 2014, according to analysts at Gasbuddy.com. The declines are a boost for the slowing economies of Europe, Japan, China, S, Korea and India. China's imports for 2015 are estimated at 61% of oil consumption, using official estimates. In the current slowdown the lower prices offer relief. India which imports 75% of its energy benefits signficantly, as this helps lower inflation and reduces cost of fuel subsidies for state run companies. Russia is adversely affected by the declines as it depends on oil and gas exports for 50% of the nation's budget. Estimates by AFK Sistema economists show the Russian economy contracting in 2015 with oil at near $90 per barrel (Brent crude is at about $85, and WTI at $81 in early Oct. 2014). Russia's former Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin reflects opinion among Russian executives and politicians, when he told state television that Saudi Arabia may be pushing prices lower to target Russia's oil resource based economy and Mr. Putin, in an effort to broaden the effect of sanctions. (The Saudis have strongly protested the Putin intervention in Syria.) Venezuela has used $120 per barrel and Angola $98 for its budget, leading to a strong hit for the economy. ...

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Peter Altmaier is director of the chancellery in Berlin, and is the person closest to Angela Merkel. This report in the Economist points out that Altmaier has played a critical role in steps taken by Merkel- as chief whip in parliament for the CDU during the Greece financial crisis and bailouts, as environment minister implementing the program away from coal based electricity, and in negotiating deals such as the deal with Turkey on refugees, and now with Brexit negotiations. Merkel has asked Altmaier to write her manifesto for the September 2017 election. A member of the CDU's liberal wing, Altmaier is known for being a scholar on German history, especially Bismarck, and a workaholic. Here he is mentioned as a bridge maker for the CDU to the Greens Party and was part of a group of CDU and Green Party politicians who met at an Italian restaurant in Bonn. As the moderates are now dominant in the Greens Party, a CDU coalition with the Greens could be shaped by Altmaier if the election results move in that direction. ...

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A government watchdog in Germany keeps track of what members of Germany's parliament the Bundestag earn in secondary income from speaking fees and other sources. The watchdog is called Abgeordnetenwatch or parliamentarian-watch. German parliamentarians are now required to list what bracket they are in with the highest at 250,000 euros with no ceiling set. One exception is for lawyers, consultants and farmers who can avoid transparency for upto 3.3 million euros. Unusually these professional backgrounds are left as exceptions. Still Germany is making an effort in this direction where such an effort is absent in the U.S. leading to a credibility gap for established parties and politicians, and leaving an opening for criticism from outsiders who can say they have no connection to lobbyists. German members of parliament earn an income of 9300 euros a month.