LyrArc Article Gist
Dana Milbank of the WP says the views of some Democrats on Trump as a good Republican nominee based on the notion that he has high negative perception with voters is fraught with dangers for U.S. democracy. Milbank points out that this ignores what is good for the country. Having Trump as the nominee of one of the two main parties would create a divisive atmosphere and is not good for the country, says Milbank. In comparing Trump with Cruz, he says Trump is likely to follow his instincts to operate outside the U.S. constitutional system. Cruz as a person believes in the U.S. constitution and would never endorse violence or action against minorities. Cruz has not done enough to come across as a likable person with his persistent focus on conservative or Reagan values to the exclusion of everything else. This is changing in mid-April 2016 following a CNN interview with the Cruz family, a MSNBC town hall answering questions from undecided voters, and NYT coverage of Cruz at a Brooklyn bakery, that shows a different human face that people have never seen about Cruz. Cruz's self-deprecating humor in a NYT article where he talks about voters not liking "a hectoring scold," is part of this needed change that could have happened earlier in the campaign. About Trump Milbank cites Conservative party prime minister Cameron who says Trump would unite all Britons against him if he ever came to Britain....

LyrArc Article Gist
The IMF's managing director, Christine Lagarde, pointed to the urgent need to recapitalize European banks in September 2011. European banks face potential losses of 120 billion euros for Belgium, Spain and Italy, 60 billion euros for Greece, 20 billion euros for Ireland and Portugal, and 100 billion euros for other banking exposure, for a total of 300 billion euros, according to the International Monetary Fund. In the absence of recapitalization there could be further damage to EU economies from restricted lending by banks. IMF estimates show that deteriorating credit conditions could damage growth in the eurozone countries by 3.5 percentage points, and in the U.S. by 2.2 percentage points, creating another recession.

LyrArc Article Gist
Charlie Rose talks to Paul Ryan, the Republican Congressman from Wisconsin on his "Roadmap for the Future" and a major overhaul of taxes, spending, Medicare and Social Security. He tells Rose, who hosts a news show on Bloomberg TV, that in 2010 he is all by himself looking at the big picture for shaping ideas on economic reform, and still hopes others will join him in this effort.

LyrArc Article Gist
The World Bank annual report on development focuses on agriculture as the means to reducing poverty in Africa and Asia, with the poorest farmers in Africa, South Asia and parts of China

LyrArc Article Gist
Andrea Coombes provides views and assessment of the U.S. stock market in July 2014 of Joe Davis, chief economist at Vanguard Group, David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Chase & Co., and Russel Kinnel, director of manager research at Morningstar. Joe Davis cautions against timing of the stock market from any surge in volatility, as timing has proven to be difficult. Kinnel says many sectors have performed well in one year and not so well in other years. Utilities, energy and health care have been more consistent in returns providing gains of 17%, 16% and 11% in 2014 respectively, compared to gains of 18%, 23% and 48% in 2013 , according to Morningstar.

LyrArc Article Gist
China's economic planning agency, the National Development and Reform Commission, has approved $156 billion in new infrastructure projects, new subways, highways and other projects in recent weeks. The response is more carefully planned than the stimulus projects in 2009-2010, which are now seen as excessive response creating the prospect of bad loans in the banking system and causing inflation. The stimulus spread over 2 years, 2009 and 2010, was by government's initial estimates about 4 trillion yuan and this does not include additional local government spending as the government encouraged spending. This time the stimulus is about 1 trillion yuan or $158 billion, 2% of GDP, spread over 4 years, with projects going through careful review, according to Nomura economist Zhang Zhiwei. The Chinese government wants to avoid losing gains made in controlling a property bubble and holding down inflation.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Federal Reserve's decision to extend Operation Twist beyond June to the rest of the year after the June 2012 FOMC meeting. By extending Operation Twist the Fed will buy $267 billion in long-term Treasury bonds and notes and sell short term Treasurys.

LyrArc Article Gist
The New York Times editorial page on the day following the passage of the second bailout or rescue plan of $700 billion in the Senate after it was voted down in the House of Representatives. It points out that the bailout bill does little to prevent a wave of foreclosures which the NYT estimates at six million people expected to default in the rest of this year and 2009. It faults lenders unwillingness to reduce the loan balances amount. At a Congressional hearing for the Hope for Homeowners program in which the governmet wold insure upto $300 bilonin new affordable loans for troubled borrowers if the lenders voluntarily refinance delinquent mortgages by reducing loan balances to 90% of the homes' current market value, lending banks were lukewarm about taking these losses in exchange for bigger losses in foreclosures. These lenders include Wels Fargo, Chase, Bank of America and Citigroup. The FDIC's Sheila Barr has also advocated reducing loan balances in her proposal for tackling the housing crisis presented after the Bear Stearns crisis. She is taking this approach to banks that like IndyMac were taken over by FDIC. But the numbers are not large letters were sent to 28,000 delinquent borrowers of IndyMac recently to reduce loan balances. This is a serious problem and either Congress and Treasury are leaving this problem to the next administration taking office 3 months from now as there is no real consensus on this issue even today or they are missing the impact this has in dropping home price values even further in neigborhoods across the nation as foreclosures drive prices down even further compounding the problem. For the financial institutions it would appear that they are letting this drag out because their capital is at frighteningly low levels and taking losses at one time is harder than taking the foreclosure losses dragged out over 1-3 years and they are also looking for a way in which they can let the government bear the burden of losses as the crisis intensifies which can make sense from the point of view of each institution. According to a report in the Wall Street Journal on September 29, 2008, Sheila Barr told Congress this month that in recent years troubled loan portfolios have yielded about 32% of book value, compared with more than 87% for loans in which the borrower is current. These are strong statistics in favor of lenders taking an informed decision to lower loan balances voluntarily with some government help along the way but the fact that this is not happening leads one to think that something is falling between the cracks, initial lender reluctance to take losses through voluntary balance reduction at the time of Bear Stearns crisis given taxpayer reluctance and lack of government initiative to help lenders in doing this, sort of what Martin Feldstein suggested in a series of articles during the time before and after the Bear Steans crisis. And then as the credit crisis worsened with collapse of Lehman, WaMu, Freddie, Fannie and Wachovia in September 2008 fear gripping the markets and LIBOR interbank lending rate at close to 8%, banks gripped by the fear prevailing in the market, frozen practically about any steps other than preserving their hammered capital, and reluctant to take losses which would further impair their capital. Also in the WSJ Sept 8, on help for homeowners, Deutsche Bank estimates 40% of homeowners or about 20 million households will owe more than their home is worth by the time the housing market stabilizes. This will lead to some homeowners making the rational decision as Martin Feldstein argued to walk away from their homes, leading to more foreclosure losses for th banks. This article Rescue Includes Steps to Help Borrowers Keep Homes by Ruth Simon also has some information that confirms the NYT editorial. An analysis it says of 144 mortgage modifications by the Massachusetts Attorney General's office found that none reduced mortgage balances and onoly a handful reduced monthly payments. Even with interest rate reductions, the study showed borrrowers wound up paying more because of missed paymmets penalties and fees. Another study by Credit Suisse mentioned in the same article points out that the percentage of borrowers who were behind 6 months after loan modifications dropped to 17% when lenders reduced the loan balances and 13% when mortgage companies froze the interest rate of adjustable rate mortgages. A bigger problem is the effect on consumption, if 40% of homeowners end up owing more to the bank than their home is worth as Deutsche Bank estimates, combined with higher unemployment and higher parttime employment, by the time things stabilize. And this is the big looming problem for a new administration in January even if the bailout plan passes Congress this week after revisions and eases the crisis in the credit markets. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The skills to navigate different personalities and work patiently on the issues surrounding changes to the U.S. tax system of Rep. Dave Camp (MI), chairman of the U.S House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, will be immensely useful in the effort to make changes to the U.S. tax system. Camp works well with fellow House Republican leaders Boehner, Ryan, Cantor, and his Democratic counterpart in the U.S. Senate Max Baucus. Camp is a good listener, refuses to engage in partisan criticism, and has the patience to work through difficult issues of achieving savings and keeping fairness in the the tax changes. Earlier efforts to achieve consensus in late 2011 failed, making it even more important to have leadership which can create productive debate and bridge the differences. The tax changes are part of the overall effort for U.S. economic recovery by reducing the deficit.

LyrArc Article Gist
Easwar Prasad, Cornell University economist, and a former head of the IMF's China division, says the new report by the World Bank and the Development Reform Commission (DRC), is part of an effort by government officials in China to push the agenda for change forward during the transition to a new leadership. This includes Premier Wen. There is pushback from large state enterprises. The DRC and the World Bank had called for a change from the current situation to allow more private sector involvement in the economy, which means restricting the growth of the large state owned companies and letting the private sector operate in more parts of the economy. The alternative is to see growth slowing quickly and -some economists- say suddenly without warning. The role of Zhu Rongji, a former prime minister during the period Jiang Zemin was president, in pushing for changes appropriate to the period, is also cited. The last decade under prime minister Wen Biao is seen as one in which China relentlessly pursued its currrent export led model of development with large state run companies and state run banks dominating the economy. This has made change even harder to achieve because of the pushback to preserve the status quo....

LyrArc Article Gist
India's lower house of parliament passes a Food Security bill which provides subsidized rice, wheat and other grains to the poorer sections of society, covering about 75% of people living in the rural areas and 50% of the people in cities. The legislation increases the cost of food subsidies by $4 billion to $20 billion a year. Because of high levels of malnutrition in rural areas in India, especially among children, the program helps the needy. Brazil's Bolsa Familia program is more far reaching in helping the poor because it also requires vaccinations of children and making sure children attend school.

LyrArc Article Gist
El-Erian points to the risks posed by the long term unemployed in the U.S. He cites the 43.9% of the unemployed or 5.5 millon people out of work for 27 weeks or more. In fact the U-6 measure for unemployment that includes the people who have quit looking for work and parttime workers is abetter indication of where things are. This was an estimated 11% in November 2011, according to Ed Luce in the Financial Times, cited by Klein in the Washington Post.

LyrArc Article Gist
About $70 billion in Greek credit default swaps are outstanding. But after all sides settle their accounts only $3.2 billion will have to be paid out. The International Swaps and Derivatives Association made the decision to set off the swaps payment after the Greek debt restructuring and bond swap on March 8, 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jan Hatzius, economist at Goldman Sachs, says the May 2012 jobs report of only 69,000 jobs added, and 49,000 fewer jobs added in March and April after revisions by the Labor Department, should be seen in the light of higher hiring in the winter months because of warm weather. His estimate is that the warm weather added 100,000 extra jobs in the 3 months through February 2012, taking jobs from the March to May 2012 period which averaged 96,000 jobs per month. The underlying job growth if these weather related effects are taken out would be 120,000 to 130,000 jobs added each month in the March through May 2012 period. Macroeconomic Advisors draws the same conclusions, and adds that reductions in energy prices should offset any negative effects of slower job growth by boosting real disposable personal income and supporting real consumer spending.

LyrArc Article Gist
Unemployment in the U.S. will be hard to bring down with the mismatch in skills for new jobs created. The National Skills Coalition, which works to promote job training, says in a report that 46% of the jobs in New York state in 2009 were in the middle skills category, and only 39% of New York workers had the skills for these jobs. Mid-skilled workers are workers with a high school diploma and training, an associates degree or vocational training. The problem is that students from public schools and community colleges who are not prepared with mid-skills and training, or lack a two year degree, are not prepared for these mid-skilled jobs in health care, transportation and other fields. This report says 40% of new jobs created in New York state will be for mid-skilled workers. In the low skilled workers category there is downward pressure on wages because there are more workers than jobs- 21% of new jobs are low-skilled and 23% of New York workers are low-skilled, according to the report. The problem is serious because funding for training programs has been cut over the years, and at the same time government policy- including that of the Obama administration- has focussed on getting people to college. Less attention has gone to training programs and vocational education. This at a time when a college education has become costly and difficult for families....

LyrArc Article Gist
A advisor to U.S. president Obama lists the gains in U.S. healthcare made by March 2014, after the passing of the Affordable Care Act or Obama healthcare law. He cites on access to care the reduction of the percentage of uninsured Americans from 18% in the middle of 2013 to 15.9% in the first quarter of 2014, according to a Gallup poll.

LyrArc Article Gist
Of 21 reader comments to this piece on banker pay, all except for 4-5, were very critical of the bankers behaviour, including many of their colleagues in the financial industry who commented. The lack of any response from the FSA on the grounds that its not the FSA's job, or from the Treasury, is disconcerting. Treasury is said to have not said a word, when RBS hired a head trader for a rumored 7 million pounds. All this coming on the heels of the RBS and Lloyds debacle, makes the Labor government open to attack from the Conservatives under Osborne and Cameron. and from Mervyn King of the Bank of England. They have expressed strong disapproval of the busines as usual attitude of bankers.