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Norway's sovereign wealth fund, the Government Pension Fund Global, is run by Yngve Slyngstad. The fund has $570 billon, $100,000 for each of Norway's 4.9 million people. The fund took a 23% loss in 2008. Then the fund made a shift from 40% equity holding to 60% equity holding, which has paid off. The losses were reversed with a 26% gain in 2009 and a 10% gain in 2010. The fund gets all of Norway's oil revenues less about 4% of the fund's value that goes to the state budget. Slyngstad became CEO in 2008, and persuaded finance ministers to take on greater risk, leading to $175 billion in stock investments during the financial crisis. He has told Parliament that he will get returns of 4% after inflation- higher than returns of 3.1% that were made since 1998. With assets equal to 2% of the total market value of stocks trading in Europe, the Norwegian fund is a major investor. Rules set for the fund prohibit investments larger than 10% in any one stock.

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Adding in local government debt to central government debt, railways, asset management companies and state owned banks, gives a better picture of total debt for China. This is an estimated $3.55 trillion or close to 59% of GDP compared to 93% for the U.S. The problem is no one really knows how much debt there is in the local government in China. Analysts say this understates nonperforming loans from China's lending binge after the 2008 financial crisis. Stephen Green of Standard Chartered Bank estimates China's total debt, including contingent liabilities, to be 77% of GDP. Arthur Kroeber of Dragonomics estimates it at 75%. China's Banking Regulatory Commission estimates that investment vehicles that have local government guarantees borrowed $1.17 trillion in 2009 and the first half of 2010. Century Weekly, a leading financial magazine, estimates this to be $1.52 trillion at the end of 2010. The large local government debt limits the ability of China's central bank to raise rates to control inflation, as every increase in rates increases the local government debt. For the U.S., excluding debt owed by one part of the government to another, such as Social Security, would bring U.S. debt to 62.2%. This would'nt include the debts of local and state governments, overhaul of Fannie and Freddie, or liabilities to pay future retirement and health benefits....

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Hon Hai chairman Terry Gou told corporate employees that Hon Hai plans to increase the number of robotic arms in its manufacturing plants from 10,000 to one million by 2013. He says the move will "improve working conditions and provide a better career path to employees." The improvement of working conditions is a major concern after a number of suicides. The plans to automate dangerous and monotonous tasks is intended to migrate workers to other work. Hon Hai has about 1 million employees in China. It is moving plants to the less costly interor of China where wages are lower- to Chengdu, Wuhan and Zhengzhou from the coastal areas.

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The Nobel Prize Committee's views on free expression of opinion in China, and the selection of Liu Xiaobo for the 2010 Nobel Peace Prize. Thorbjorn Jagland, chairman of the Norwegian Nobel Committee, points out that it is not an interference in China's internal affairs, because international human rights law and standards are above the nation-state, and the world community has a duty to ensure that they are respected. Jagland says the issue is universal human rights and the check on arbitrary majorities around the world. Even if the country is not a constitutional democracy, it is a member of the United Nations, and it has amended its Constitution to comply with the Declaration of Human Rights. The Nobel Committee chairman points to two other selections for the Nobel Prize, that of Andrei Sakharov of Russia, and of Rev. Martin Luther King of the U.S., as evidence that the Nobel Committee has stood up for universal human rights for a long time.

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Several factors make it likely that oil prices will remain low for an extended period of time into 2016 and beyond. As Ailworth points out nobody is blinking. The Saudis plan no change to their high production. U.S. oil producers in the Gulf of Mexico have already made investments for deep sea drilling wells following the end of the moratorium on drilling in the Gulf. Many of these wells are producing at very low marginal cost as most of the investments have already been made. It makes economic sense to produce even in a low price environment, according to Andarko. Shell continues to invest in the deep waters of the Gulf. Its production is up 10% to 250,000 barrels a day. American shale oil drillers have not cut back as much as expected, partly because many companies with large debts need the cash flow to pay interest on debt. And some of the 1200 wells that were drilled but left untapped may also be brought on stream to slow production declines. As a result the overall production of American crude, according to monthly federal information, has declined by about 3% to 9.3 million barrels from the peak reached in April 2015. This helps the U.S., Europe, China and India, at a time when their economies are experiencing different problems. It hurts Russia, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Iran. Russia is coping as its exporters convert dollars into rubles after the sharp depreciation in the ruble, and helps local industry including steel producers, as well as wheat exports. Venezuela's economy is the worst hit. And Iran now has to produce at high levels in 2016 to improve its economy following the lifting of sanctions....

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The Trump administration's early proposal for NAFTA moves away from campaign pledges to completely renegotiate the treaty, instead taking the approach of working to improve the U.S. trade position in relation to Mexico and Canada. It includes seven objectives for tougher rules for labor and the environment favored by Democrats in Congress, and it also has support from Republicans with its effort to update NAFTA for changes in technology and in other areas since the accord was signed during the Clinton administration. The area in which U.S. and Mexican business are wary is one in which the Trump administration still seeks to keep the option of imposing protective tariffs, and a border-adjusted tax to level playing field for differences in taxes, as well as other measures to protect American jobs and interests. Because any renegotiated NAFTA also has to pass both houses of Congress this proposal took into account the different constituencies and interests for this issue. Robert Lighthizer, trade representative under president Reagan is likely to become the next U.S. Trade Representative and lead negotiator. We first profiled Lighthizer in a group in Lyrarc for pointing to the need for a level playing field in trade. As early as 2010 Lighthizer argued in op-ed articles that globalization and trade practices should ensure a level playing field for the U.S., and was covered in Lyrarc. ...

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China's July 2012 exports were up barely by 1%, over the same month prior year. Exports to the European Union declined by 16.2%. A big problem is cost increases for land, labor and electricity. By 2004 China's exports were growing at a peak rate of 35%. Since then prices of inputs have increased- wages by 150%, land by 70%, and electricity prices by 30%, according to Dragonomics. The yuan appreciated by 30%. Productivity is increasing by about 8% a year, according to the World Bank. As a result of the price increases of inputs the competitiveness of China, with products exported mainly on the basis of price, is deteriorating.

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EIA figures show U.S. stockpiles of crude oil, refined fuels and other petroleum products increasing to 1.149 billion barrels in the week ending Jan 2, 2015, excluding the strategic petroleum reserve. This is the highest ever since 1990, except for June 2013. Brent crude drops below $50 a barrel.

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Pessimism about the pace of democratization in China with the continued dominance of the Communist party in the business and economc structures of the country. The interrelationships of the party with state owned companies and the role of its 80 million members in running all aspects of life in China. Experts in China say the 18th party Conress showed no signs of change in the party's control and no sign of experimentation to allow for change comng from within the system so that China could establish a constitutional democracy with the rule of law. Experts in China say the new leaders Jinping and Keqiang may not be able to make changes even if they wanted to, because of the party's control and the earlier presidents and prime ministers from the last two decades who still retain a strong influence on the direction of the country.

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Friedman describes the lack of decisionmaking, initiative and courage in the Eurozone, India and China to tackle difficult problems. During his visit to India he describes the problems India faces. A serious problem with lack of good governance within the democratic framework. India also has a growing population that will soon surpass China's population, which makes the task of development that much harder, with the small steps India is taking to move forward not making a serious impact. Azim Premji, chairman of Wipro, described it this way: "There is a complete lack of decision-making among leaders in the government. If prompt action is not taken, the country will face a setback. You must appreciate how serious it is." Friedman sees a similiar situation in the eurozone countries as new governments are being formed in Greece and Italy by Papademos and Mario Monti, both technocrats from the European Union. This has the added complication because these experts have not been elected. The fact that they have support and goodwill is because of the failure of the political class in Greece and Italy. The failure of the political class in the U.S. is evident from the stymied negotiations over the deficit, and the lack of leadership from President Obama....

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China announced that it would make its exchange rate flexible, but also emphasized that it would do so gradually. What this means is that China will have a managed floating exchange rate. China followed a managed floating policy between mid 2005 and mid 2008, with a 21% upward valuation during that period for the yuan. During the 2008 crisis upto now the rate was pegged. The yuan was pegged at 6.83 yuan to the dollar. China is now rebalancing its economy so that it is not overly dependent on exports. The idea is to let domestic wages and domestic consumption pick up the slack in the markets of Europe and the USA. Europe is taking up austerity measures, and the mood in the US is shifting towards concern about growing budget and trade deficits. See the groups for "China wages" and "China workers."

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Finance Minister Joaquim Levy, a University of Chicago trained economist, is replaced by planning minister Nelson Barbosa, as the new Finance Minister of Brazil. President Rousseff faces criticism as Brazil's economy contracts and ordinary Brazilians feel the effects of fiscal austerity policies pursued under Levy. Former president Lula da Silva was critical of Levy's policies.

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The view from Asian officials and scholars that it was not the savings glut that originated in Asia that caused the economic crisis in the U.S. The idea of a"savings glut" that caused low rates for along time and set up conditions for a housing bubble was presented by Ben Bernanke in 2005 before he was governor of the Fed. It was considered acontributing factor in the crisis. Mr Panitchpakdi, head of the UN Confreence on Trade and Development says that Asians did not borrow heavily for consumption and Americans did. Consumption levels he says are normal in Asia and average 40% of GDP. Household consumption in China is 36% but thats because growth in investment and exports has been very strong, npot because consumption has been weak. Speaking at the same conference Chinese central bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan sais Chinese consumption needs to rise and saving rate fall but micro factors like regulation played an overwhelming part. Zhou says the increase in the savings rate in recent years comes not from households but from corporate savings as retained profits. Lawrence Lau, another economist, says China's trade surplus was at 2% for many years till 2005 when it jumped to 5% of GDP. ...

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Hon Hai has about 800,000 workers. About 400,000 are employed in the southern industrial town of Shenzhen. After a number of worker suicides (13 people have committed or attempted to commit suicide in 2010 so far), the company has announced that it will give 20% raise to its workers. Workers at one plant in Longhua are paid 900 yuan or $132, the legal minimum wage in Guangdong province, though many workers work overtime at 1.5 times the standard rate. The company is secretive about its activities and uses the trade name of Foxconn. It makes personal computers and other products for Apple, HP and other companies. The company uses a military style discipline and it is reported that there is excessive stress in working conditions.

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Kenneth Rogoff of Harvard University, expert on debt crises, and author of "This Time is Different," says China is one of the best examples of the idea that this time is different, with the idea created that somehow China was impervious to the massive build up of debt. The debt is now over 250% of GDP, and this was possible for so long because of the high savings rate of 30% of disposable income and the millions of young migrants moving to cities to work in manufacturing. The growth of shadow banking, opaqueness in decisionmaking, unreliable data, use of local government financing vehicles, the bubble in housing with a large portion of loans tied to the real estate market, all combine to create serious problems that will take a long time to sort out. Rogoff says the crisis in Tianjin with the deadly explosions in the port area, and the government's inability to provide answers to questions from a alarmed public, only added to the uncertainty and loss of credibility. Rogoff says he hopes the trillions of dollars in reserves will provide China with the tools adequate to tackle the debt problems before they spread to other countries....

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Krugman points out the gains on three fronts evident from the Census Bureau report of 5.2% gain in median income of households in the U.S. He says the first is the growth in incomes of ordinary working class and middle class families, second the large decline in the poverty rate, and third the further rise in insurance coverage in 2015 for people without health insurance. He points to the steady efforts of the Obama administration to improve lives of ordinary families as working based on the Census report though results have taken time, and could have been better. The Stimulus, says Krugman could have been larger following the blow of the 2009 financial crisis and increased unemployment at the time. Janet Yellen at the inequality conference of the Boston Fed in 2014 pointed out the problems of 62 million households having net worth of about $10,000, and why this was running against the American idea of a better life for all Americans. In that sense the Census report is a movement in the right direction but a lot remains to be done.   ...

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A recent study by the IMF shows that China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves that are twice what would be needed for traditional purposes such as supporting the economy in a financial crisis. China is still very much a developing country with per capita annual income of $3000, low consumer spending, and rising inflation. This makes the policy of accumulating reserves and preserving an undervalued exchange rate to support export companies counterproductive. There is growing debate about this as inflation is becoming difficult to control. Yu Yongding, an advisor to the PBOC monetary policy committee says China as a developing country should not be exporting capital, which should be used to raise living standards. A rising exchange rate would increase spending power of people throughout China. Fan Gang, head of China's National Economic Research Institute, was a member of the central bank monetary policy committee. He wrote in a recent essay arguing for a higher exchange rate, and societal, tax and other changes that help increase China's household spending. Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded reasonable levels that the country needs, adding to inflation risks and making it difficult to conduct monetary policy. The reserves are now over $3 trillion, pasing that mark in March 2011 after increasing 25% in the last year....

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Alex Frangos and Sudeep Jain's interview with Duvvuri Subbarao, the governor of the Reserve Bank of India, India's central bank. India's economy is slowing with higher inflation, higher interest rates, inability of the government to make firm decisions on foreign investment, a declining currency, and a growing deficit. Subbarao has come under criticism for keeping interest rates low for too long after the 2008 financial crisis, and then as higher inflation persisted making a number of interest rate increases in 2011, which reduced the credit flows in the Indian economy. Subbarao's defense of his policy of not acting earlier on interest rates and then raising interest rates repeatedly, is that the economy need stimulus in the years after the global financial crisis. He says the inflation in the early stages was a result of a supply shock in food prices and would not have responded to interest rate adjustments. Inflation declined from 9.1% in November 2011 to 7.5% in December. Subbarao says the interest rate increases are over and he is looking for the right time to increase credit flows in the economy. His remaining concerns are with the fiscal deficit, and he called on the finance minister to map out what he plans to do for the fiscal deficit. He expects the deficit for the current fiscal year to increase from 4.6% to 5.5%, as the cost of fuel subisides rises and tax receipts decline. He calls for the removal of subsidies on liquified natural gas and electricity, but concedes that this will be difficult in an election year. Looking back Subbarao sense is that the central bank's policy actions were well calibrated....

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The author Li Congjun, is head of the Xinhua News agency, official press agency of the People's Republic of China. He calls for rebalancing the global economy with China depending more on domestic consumption, efforts to restrain the excesses of property and asset price bubbles, and renewed focus on technology and investment.