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India's ruling Congres party suffered losses in the two major states of Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. In Uttar Pradesh, the socialist Samajwadi party gained an absolute majority of 224 seats in the 403 seat assembly. The Bahujan Samaj party of Kumari Mayawati lost its majority winning only 80 seats, the BJP won 47 seats and the Congress won only 28 seats. Rahul Gandhi of the Congress party campaigned heavily in the state and the results show that his campaign against Mayawati did not result in Congress gaining enough seats to form a coalition government with the Samajwadi party led by Mulayam Singh Yadav and his son Akhilesh Yadav. Yadav has held the position of chief minister three times before, and campaigned for greater rights for lower castes and for a quota in education and jobs for Muslims. His other campaign promises included increasing electricity production, and improving the business climate. In the Punjab state, the Shiromani Akali Dal party won 56 of 117 seats, with the Congress getting 46 seats. National elections will be held in 2014, and the results reflect a repudiation of the Congress party after corruption scandals, slower economic growth, and lack of clear policy direction....

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Six cities have rejected the Olympics, with Calgary in Canada being the last one. The problem with hosting the Olympics is how much it costs. Cost overruns are common. 20141 Sochi WInter Olympics estimated budget was $10 billion, in the end it cost $51 billion. 

Brazil is the latest example of the problem. With huge needs in sanitation, epidemic prevention, infrastructure and public services, the country did badly by spending money on new soccer stadiums in the northeast which were not used after the World Cup soccer championship, and in the summer Olympics. 

Learning from these lessons voters in Calgary, Canada, rejected hosting  the Winter Olympics. Voters or local councils in Innsbruck, Austria, Rome, Italy, Bern, Switzerland, Hamburg, Germany, Oslo and Stockholm have rejected the idea of hosting the Olympics. Other problems are the environmental impact with deforestation to create Olympic sites.

 

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Casey describes the crucial policy errors in Brazil with over spending and lack of transparency in the years leading to the crisis in 2014-2015. Brazil raised interest rates half a percentage point in May 2015 to 13.25%. Inflation was at 8.13% in Brazil in March 2015. Brazilian companies have large dollar denominated debt accumulated during the boom years which needs to be refinanced as its currency the real declines. With current policies economic growth is likely to continue at 0-1%. Russia made policy errors with the departure of Kudrin as finance minister for Putin's second term as president. Policies to attract foreign investment, controlling military expenditures, and continuing growth were reversed as Russia took positions on Ukraine that led to western sanctions, capital outflows, and a sharp decline in the ruble. By May 2015 the ruble and oil prices had recovered from lows, but the ruble was still 35% below the level in June 2014, and the oil prices were still only two thirds of the peak in 2014. Russia sees the decline in the ruble as a way to reduce imports and increase import substitution for many products. The economy is weakened by high inflation- inflation was 6.9% in March 2014, going up to 16.9% in March 2015. In May 2015 Russia lowered the target repo rate by 1.5 percentage points to 12%. Russia faces stagflation- high unemployment with low GDP growth, and high inflation....

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The OPEC meeting in Qatar in April 2016 to stabilize oil prices with a freeze in production is not likely to affect supply and demand. Saudis and Russia are producing all out, and Iran plans to increase its production, making it difficult to reach an agreement. The International Energy Agency, IEA, predicts demand will rise by the end of 2016 from 94.8 million barrels a day to 95.9 million barrels a day. Production is at 96.4 million barrels a day, and this is expected to lead to narrowing the gap between supply and demand. Experts say cars are becoming more fuel effficient, and electric car technology is becoming commercially viable, leading to a lack of growth in demand in developed and middle income countries. This may have to be factored in for the intermediate and long run for demand growth.

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This editorial in the Wshington Post is sharply critical of the Obama administration's policies of inaction in Syria and Iraq. It says president Obama and his administration will have to answer for the policies to the American people and the people of the Middle East and Europe.

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France's central bank chief Christian Noyer, says public spending to create jobs has the drawback of creating yesterday's jobs, but lasting job creation has to look at today and the future for effective job creation. Once government spending crosses a certain level, about 55% of GDP, a level France has crossed, further spending becomes counterproductive, reducing public confidence in the economy, as higher future taxes are anticipated canceling any benefits.

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Jenna Wortham asks the question do tech companies have undue influence in Washington especially when they are pursuing their own ecosystem expansion, citing an example from Facebook app Free Basics. There is another question that comes with the election campaigns of Sanders, Trump and Clinton, and issues of upward mobility. With this issue raised also by Janet Yellen of the U.S. Federal Reserve of the loss of intergenerational mobility in the U.S. at a conference in Oct. 2014. This question is whether the tech world in California can be sensitive to the problems of cities depending on manufacturing in the midwest and the eastern U.S. that are recovering from deep recession, because the environments are so different. Working in the tech world in California is so different from the rest of the country, almost a different way of life. It also has deep political implications, because the priorities are different. Sometimes as with the TPP trade agreement they may conflict- this includes an industry such as the auto industry that also is incorporating technology at an accelerating pace and which has employed many times more people than does the tech industry in California, and in many states. This leads to president Obama's support for the TPP trade agreement, an agreement which analysis by some experts shows is more beneficial to the tech industry in California than to the auto industry in the midwestern states. The NYT's Krugman says overall for the U.S. it is marginally helpful as most of the gains in free trade are already behind us. See Lyrarc using search terms-Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, Trans Pacific Partnership. Yet it remains a mystery why president Obama has made it a part of his legacy, when Hillary Clinton realizing the issues in this election has clearly stated she will not support it. It has other implications as well, as it has given rise to demagogic rhetoric in this election, where other issues far more significant such as the condition of western democracy are at stake. ...

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Friedman compares the anti-corruption movements in India and the U.S., the world's two largest democracies. The Occupy Wall Street anti-corruption movement in the U.S. focusses on the excessive influence of banks on lawmakers, regulators, and the government, through the use of campaign money, revolving door for government officials and regulators to join banks, and intense lobbying. The anti-corruption movement focusses on corruption in government at higher levels, such as the handling of government licenses, and at the basic levels of needing to bribe officials for something as simple as getting a birth certificate or other government document. Both have pernicious effects, in the U.S. excesssive bank influence leads to taking excessive risk for higher bonuses, putting the entire financial system at risk and creating a crisis in housing that delays the economic recovery. And in India the corruption leads to retarded progress, as funds to invest in infrastructure and development are siphoned off, business and entrepreneurs are required to pay bribes at each step, and ordinary people face the need to pay bribes for the most routine interactions with government officials. In the process this creates more unequal societies by skewing the distribution of benefits from wealth created to groups that are better equipped to game the system. The economic system once distorted in these ways has tendencies to take talent away from productive activity and innovation which create wealth, and direct it towards speculative activities....

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A new anticorruption Lokpal bill is passed in parliament by the ruling Congress party. It does not include the Central Bureau of Investigation under its purview as proposed by Anna Hazare, leader of the protest movement for better governance. Some of the other provisions such as including the prime minister and lower level government officials under the Lokpal were included in the Lokpal bill. The ruling Congress party is trying to regain the initiative after corruption scandals in the government of prime minister, Manmohan Singh, and at the state government level. Bribes for local officials is so widespread in every part of life in India, that it has become an intolerable aspect of life in India for the average person.

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The Obama administration is pushing for new U.S. fuel efficiency standards of 56.2 mpg by 2025. In May 2009 President Obama announced domestic car and light truck fuel efficiency standards of 35 mpg by 2016. Europe is expected to reach fuel efficiency of 60 mpg by 2020. This would still leave Europe considerably ahead of the U.S. in fuel efficiency for automobiles, but the gap would be much smaller. For the last several decades the U.S. has fallen sadly behind Europe and Japan in fuel efficiency. The perception of poor fuel efficiency hurt the automakers badly during periods of high fuel prices and when buyers were facing difficult economic choices. The automakers are beginning to grasp this fact. Mark Reuss, president of General Motors, commented that- "it's very challenging, but its upto us engineers to provide high value to the customer and support the environment." This is an issue that has serious national and global implications as it affects the future prices and demand for oil, emissions, and future economic growth. It would also bring the U.S. in line with Europe and Japan when it comes to fuel efficiency of automobiles. ...

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Interview with Honda CEO Takeo Fukui. In June Honda will rollout a new hydrogenpowered fuel cell vehicle called the FCX Clarity. Its powered with electricity produced by combining hydrogen and oxygen in batterylike fuel cells. Honda will have this vehicle available for lease this summer in California and aims to deliver about 200 of these cars by 2010. Fukui's attitude is refreshing when compared to that of other automakers when answering a question by John Murphy of the WSJ about why try to build a hydrogen car when the stations to power the cars do not exist yet. He tells Murphy if you asked were there any gas stations when Henry Ford came up with the Model T, there weren't any, lets build the cars first and the infrastructure will follow. And Honda is working on the technology that will make it possible to charge hydrogen into fuel-cell vehicles at home . He sees it happening first in California and some other states, and in Japan and Europe. And he sees it taking about 10 years to get some sort of infrastructure in place. Considering the long term nature of the demand side with the gradual inclusion of billions of people in China and India as well as Brazil and Russia into the world economy as well as people in other developing countries this is a solution that takes patient and focused development of technology which Honda is setting out to do. He does not see a safety issue in use of hydrogen vehicles as he is confident Honda can develop the expertise to handle the safety issue for hydrogen. What is his thinking on green vehicles? What happened to the Insight the first hybrid car that Honda introduced? The Insight was never intended to be a mass seller, only to establish Honda's record as having the best record in fuel efficiency. What is Honda doing in this area. Honda does see a problem in this area. Toyota he says developed a green image largely on the back of one car the Prius. Honda will come up in 2009 with a dedicated hybrid vehicle to match the Prius. And Honda is setting the bar high for this Honda hybrid, saying that his feeling that this model will have to overwhelm and overtake the Prius. He goes on to say that this is key for us. Honda he says will take on the challenge and compete with Toyota with its products, its technology, and its racing spirit. This gasoline-electric hybrid will be introduced early next year in the USA, Japan, and Europe, and it will be the first of 4 hybrid models Honda will introduce by 2015. Regarding price the company says it will be "affordable". Honda's goal is to sell 500,000 hybrid vehicles a year. Toyota aims to sell 1 million hybrid vehicles early in the next decade and is working on developing its own hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle. Is Honda developing electric cars? Takeo Fukui thinks the practical feasibility of the electric vehicle is very limited. The two biggest issues in his view being driving distance and recharging time. The FCX Clarity can be recharged in one minute, compared to the several hours for an electric vehicle. In his view the electric vehicles will be uselful only for restricted applications like golf carts. Nissan and General Motors are planning to launch electric vehicles. What is Honda's environmental strategy? Honda being a smaller company has to focus its resources wisely with strategic choices. His focus is on the hybrid as the core product, and after that comes fuel cell and clean diesel as the core products to tackle fuel eficiency and CO2 issues. Takeo has spent more than a decade on Honda's racing teams. He drives a CR-V and enjoys driving up and down the mountains, does not race but does get on Honda's test track once or twice a year. And what has he learned from all the years in racing. When he was fully engaged in the motorcycle racing teams he says the pressure was very high and if they did not do well they got bashed by managers and the media. And actually the results were disappointing for years and the teams kept losing. For hime the series of difficulties and challenges was something that he feels everyone should experience because in some ways he acquired wisdom and creativity to get through these experiences. This is some thing Honda and Fukui will need as they try to develop their own hybrid to take the lead from Toyota and come up with industry leading technology in tackling fuel efficiency and CO2 issues. His own approach to management? Two things he always keeps in mind are take time to keep up good communication with associates at work, and testing Honda's own products with his own hands. What does he think about the auto industry in 2008, is it a turning point? He says it has becom clear in 2008 that a company has to have the technology to deal with carborn dioxide and fuel efficiency issues. And its clear that smaller vehicles are more attractive than larger vehicles. And its possible he says that we may go back from automobiles to motorcycles. In fact in India Honda is promoting motorcycles in a big way, while Tata is developing the Nano for mass market, so Takeo is talking about something that Honda sees happening in some places. ...

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EpiPen's price has jumped 550% over 8 years. Mylan Pharmaceuticals is dominant in the $1 billion market for treating serious allergic reactions. Mylan acquired reights to sell EPiPen in late 2007. A pack of two list price is now $608.61. Last Nov. Sanofi's competing product Auvi-Q was recalled giving Mylan price dominance. A problem for consumers is that EpiPen expires in one year. Mylan launched a campaign to make parents aware of the product for children with peanut and other allergies, and also lobbied the governments to make ready supply of EpiPens available in schools and other public places. Now the controversy over price increases, with Hillary Clinton citing this as an example of exorbitant pharmaceutical pricing, is likely to change the environment around EpiPen and other overpriced drugs or healthcare products.

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Walter Mead describes the roots of the refugee crisis in 2015, as millions of refugees flee Syria, Iraq, and other countries in the Middle East, lying in the failure of governments throughout the Middle East to accomodate modernity, women's rights and technological progress into the old Islamic thinking. He says he sees this in Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Tunisia, and other countries in the Middle East. The Arab Spring which aroused so much hope for the people of the region has floudered in the failure of both the Islamic leaders, the military elite, and civil society to come up with a consensus rooted in what a modern Islamic society that accomodates modernity, women's rights, the participation of people in their government, technological progress should look like. The Western nations of Europe and the U.S. also underwent soul searching to come up with a modern Christian society through its own struggles, which the Islamic societies have failed to do; and as a result floundered and broken up by sectarian, religious and military conflicts. Mead takes the long view, yet falls short when it comes to how European leaders and societies face individual challenges to bring their own Christian faith and ideals into the real world, in the way chancellor Merkel has responded in Germany. Europeans have had their own period of conflicts and civil wars, the refugee crisis and refugees in chancellor Merkel's words who "have gone through the hell of a civil war" are very real, and how each European responds defines who he is and how far Europe has come from its own dark days....

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Russian president Putin tells Russians at an annual news conference on Dec. 17, 2014, that the West wanted to deprive Russia of its natural resources. He says steps taken by the central bank and his administration were proper, including avoiding capital controls, except that the decision to raise interest rates to 17% in mid-Dec. should have been taken earlier. He deflects criticism that the sanctions and the decline in the ruble were "payment for Crimea" (Russia's takeover of the Crimea) by saying it was "payment for our independence, our sovereignty." Putin expressed unease with the expansion of NATO to Russia's borders. He told Russians to expect that the crisis will last for 2 years and during this time the Russian economy will adapt, in particular shifting its heavy dependence on oil exports. During the 10 years of the Putin administration since 2004, Russia has not made a vigorous effort to diversify away from oil dependence. Progress was made primarily in better integrating the economy with the European Union, entry into WTO, building a sovereign reserves fund, until the crisis in Ukraine. The Putin years may be seen in the future as the transition years towards a more diversified economy, and may lead to a shift away from the kind of management of economic and foreign policy by a single leader that may have led to the disruption in relations with Germany, a critical economic partner for Russia. Chancellor Merkel said Germany would continue to support sanctions as long as Russia opposed the right of self- determination of people in Europe and European values. Germany continues even now to maintain dialogue with Russia through Social Democrat Foreign Minister Steinmeier, which is why Putin continues to refer to it as "our partners" and cites the differences with our partners, very different from the Cold War period when no such close relations with Germany existed. ...

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The appreciation of the U.S. dollar and depreciating currencies in Africa in 2015 makes it costlier to import manufactured goods to African countries. Quality Supermarkets in Kampala, Uganda, struggles to fill its shelves with imported packaged foods and manufactured goods. The lack of financing for $30 million in crude supplies leads to the closure of a refinery in Lusaka, Zambia, and long lines at gas stations. The Zambian currency kwacha has depreciated by 17% against the U.S. dollar in 2015. Uganda's currency the shilling, Angola's currency the kwanza, and Nigeria's currency the Naira, all depreciated in 2015. This means larger trade deficits to finance consumer imports or upgrade infrastructure. In Uganda this means delays in upgrades to power lines and transformers. In oil producing countries such as Angola and Nigeria, and oil producers at the early stage such as Uganda and Ghana, there is a double whammy with lower oil prices leading to lower revenues to finance costlier imports. This is likely to slow growth in Africa from about 5% in recent years to 3.7%, according to Capital Economics forecast. Countries in Africa that import oil will see lower import bill for oil, but that benefit eroded by a depreciating currency. South Africa sees benefit of lower oil prices offset by lower revenues from commodity exports of iron ore, and the higher cost of imports with a depreciating currency. ...