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The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, on the risks of inflation.
06/11/2009
Krugman responded to Laffer's oped in WSJ with an op-ed of his own in the NYT suggesting that Bernanke's Fed should stay the course. In this article Peter Coy, aveteran reporter and analyst of BW, looks at the situation and the facts. Demand is so weak in the economy, that the Fed's expansion of the money supply only helps make up for this and still falls short. The economy will be fragile for some time to come so reversing course is simply dangerous. In the video that goes with this he tells Mandel that Bernanke is right and should stay the course.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Why the Fed Isn't Igniting InflationBusinessWeek 06/18/2009
As the government sells $5 trillion in new debt by one estimate, the problem of an estimated $ 1 trillion in troubled assets on the banks books is being put off for another day.
06/04/2009
The FDIC's Legacy Loans Program's $1 billion pilot program attracts no interest. The Public Private Partnership Program of Secretary Geithner, like Secretary Paulson's TARP program before Geithner, is also unlikely to attract much interest as banks are not willing to take the prices that would require them to show large losses on their books. But this means that these problems are postponed for another day.
Linked Articles
Plan to Help Banks Clear Their Books Is Halted
New York Times 06/04/2009
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World GrowthNew York Times 06/04/2009
What America can learn from the German example for government help to retrain workers and share costs to hire and retrain.
04/30/2009
The need for initiatives in this area are supercritical to handle the economic recovery correctly because of deepseated changes in the labor markets. In the absence of this high unemployment will coexist with millions of vacancies because of amismatch of qualifications. A lack of worker mobility. because of housing problems compounds this situation.
Linked Articles
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's Bad
BusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
The smaller stimulus and selective investments in 2012-2014 in China and how this affects construction and heavy equipment manufacturers
04/30/2009
The impact on Caterpillar, Volvo AB, Komatsu, John Deere, Cummins and domestic Chinese manufacturers of the smaller stimulus and selective investments in China in the years ahead. Manufacturers are exporting from China during this period of slowing sales in China.
Linked Articles
China Bets Sour for Heavy Equipment Firms
Wall Street Journal 08/16/2012
China's Stimulus Spurs U.S. BusinessWall Street Journal 04/30/2009
Gaps and flaws in the stress tests could cause problems later on
04/26/2009
How the Citigroup stress test conclusion does not match up with large pending losses in aworst case scenario. The ineffectiveness of the regulatory structure, as the FDIC is burdened with a large loss sharing agreement with Citigroup, but has not been able to get a change in the management at Citiigroup so that action is speeded up.
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 06/05/2009
The Stress Test ResultsNew York Times 04/26/2009
Views of experts from Raghuram Rajan, Paul Krugman and Simon Johnson are at odds with the Obama administration's recycling of prior Paulson's bank rescue plans
04/21/2009
Rajan and Johnson call for smaller, more transparent financial institutions through the government takeover of insolvent banks and breaking them up into smaller financial institutions that pose less risk to the country's economy and are easier to manage, and less prone to excessive risk taking. And they propose crafting policy and antitrust laws to make this work. Questions raised about the administration having too many people on its economic team who are deferential to Wall Street and not with a mindset that questions key assumptions -some call them sacred cows- that are put forward by Wall Street.
Linked Articles
Economists Seek Breakup of Big Banks
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2009
Time for Bank Creditors to Share the Pain?New York Times 04/29/2009
With bank lending anemic and consumers adopting afrugal lifestyle, two pillars of recovery are missing in the picture.
04/16/2009
Admirable rhetoric and clear ideas, but still falling short in key areas like foreclosure prevention and bank lending, is how the Obama economic recovery sccorecard reads in April 2009.
Linked Articles
When You're Flush, But Acting Flat Broke
Washington Post 04/16/2009
Lending By Bailout Recipients Falls AgainWashington Post 04/16/2009
WPost editorial thinks Obama's speech at Georgetown scored well on clarity and grasp of facts, but poorly on candor and courage to address entitlement reform.
04/14/2009
The WPost editors agree that defict reduction and entilement reform are a hard sell for the President, whereas the rest of his agenda can sail through a Democratic Congress. It asks the question, is the President dodging the tough choices?
Linked Articles
From President Obama, Economic Clarity but Little Courage
Washington Post 04/15/2009
Text of Obama Economic SpeechBusinessWeek 04/14/2009
Bogle at Vanguard Group says we live in an agency society where agents like pension fund managers and mutual fund managers make decisions for us.
04/12/2009
Its this agency society and not an ownership society that we have syas Bogle. Ownership society was 50 years ago. And what did these agents do, they did not ask the questions and exercize their civic obligations in the business sense, which means scrutiny for things like selection of board members, corporate governance, executive compensation and conflicts of interest, and dilution of responsibility where it has to be exercized. Here private equity firm Carlyle Group is shown to have given millions of dollars to get access to New York State pension fund investments in Carlyle Group. In the process pension fund managers made millions of dollars, and Bogle's agents have sold their obligations to fiduciary responsibility.
Linked Articles
He Doesn’t Let Money Managers Off the Hook
New York Times 04/12/2009
N.Y. Pension Deals Seen as Focus of Wide InquiryNew York Times 04/14/2009
Can bank recover while the rest of the economy is faltering?
04/07/2009
Manufacturing capacity utilization tells adifferent story. What are the chances for banks once this fizzle evaporates and can the Obama administration avoid making the tough choices?
Linked Articles
Economists Seek Breakup of Big Banks
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2009
Economy Falling Years Behind Full SpeedNew York Times 04/07/2009
The crisis in Eastern Europe and other developing countries and the G20 policy mandate to the IMF to support social help and stimulus spending
03/28/2009
The G-20 mandate that the IMF be the conduit for funds to help emerging countries, with the policy direction that an additional $850 billion be used not only to fix finances, but also emphasize social goals, and help people in these countries cope with the crisis. This is of great help to countries in difficulty, and assurance that the social fabric in these countries will not be torn apart as has happened before, and that people will get the necessary assistance.
Linked Articles
Steven Pearlstein - A Rare Triumph of Substance at the Summit
Washington Post 04/03/2009
Eastern Europe and the Financial CrisisWall Street Journal 03/28/2009
Geithner's Paulsonlike plan for toxic assets and doubts whether it can work.
03/23/2009
Krugman and Eavis have doubts about the new Geithner plan as it looks so much like his predecessor Paulson's failed efforts to do much about toxic assets. Krugman sees things only getting worse as 600,000 jobs are being lost every month, as Geithner, Congress and the public fail to push for the tough solutions including government taking over failed banks to deal with tosic assets without having to sort out pricing in advance.
Linked Articles
Geithner's Gamble Needs Speculators
Wall Street Journal 03/23/2009
Financial Policy DespairNew York Times 03/23/2009
Paul Krugman responds to Arthur Laffer's points about inflation by saying reversing course would put us back into a steep downturn.
06/11/2009
Krugman says only three times in the past has amajor economy faced a liquidity trap, where there is no more room to cut interest rates. During the depression years, during Japan's lost decade and now. In the previous two situations, in 1937 and 1996, a premature tightening of credit put the economy back into a steep downturn.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Stay the CourseNew York Times 06/15/2009
The different approaches of Pfizer and Novartis for new drug research and development in 2009-2015
06/11/2009
Working with smaller R&D budgets and focussing the research on a few areas, collaboration with universities, and other ways to get more out of the R&D dollar.
Linked Articles
Pfizer Profit Declines 19% After Loss of Lipitor Patent
New York Times 05/01/2012
Novartis: Radically Remaking Its Drug BusinessBusinessWeek 06/11/2009
Obama's Cairo speech on June 4, 2009 to the Muslim world coincides with Moussavi taking on Ahmadinejad for his extremism in Teheran in an election debate.
06/04/2009
Moussavi debated forcefully with Ahmadinejad on Iranian television calling for good sense in relations with the rest of the world and calling Ahmadinnejad an extremist. He called Ahmadinejad's denial of the Holocaust as undermining Iran's dignity, while Obama called it baseless, ignorant and hateful. Something that could only occur in the climate created by Obama's opening of a dialogue with the Muslim world and helping melt old attitudes and perceptions.
Linked Articles
President Obama's Cairo Appeal
Washington Post 06/05/2009
Iran President and Challenger Clash in DebateNew York Times 06/04/2009
What the U.S. and other eurozone countries can learn from Germany in reducing unemployment (1)
04/30/2009
The Harz labor market reforms under the Schroeder administration helped Germany reduce unemployment after over a decade of high unemployment folowing reunification.
Linked Articles
Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/20/2011
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
How lobbying by the financial industry and the mindset of Sec. Geithner can dilute financial regulation.
04/27/2009
The effort for financial regulation of derivatives raises concerns.
Linked Articles
Geithner, as Member and Overseer, Forged Ties to Finance Club
New York Times 04/27/2009
Danger in Wall Street’s ShadowsNew York Times 05/15/2009
Grantham and Zweig express deep skepticism about the stock markets 2nd quarter 2009 recovery.
04/23/2009
Too many of the companies that looked like "garbage" to Zweig have gone up steeply, and Grantham expresses the same skepticism when he says 'the junky companies have been diluted like hell just to keep them alive."
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Wall Street's Clearance Sale Leaves Few BargainsWall Street Journal 06/06/2009
A word of caution about the recovery. Expert opinion that sees dangers in the recovery of 2nd quarter 2009.
04/21/2009
It may only be a glimmer of hope says the Economist and not the real thing, which may be a long ways away.
Linked Articles
Economists Seek Breakup of Big Banks
Wall Street Journal 04/21/2009
A glimmer of hope?Economist 04/23/2009
In the two areas that government can make aserious difference, foreclosure prevention and bank lending it is failing.
04/15/2009
The government has only indirect influence over the other important variables in the equation for economic recovery, consumption and employment. Through foreclosure prevention and bank lending it can influence consumption and employment. Obama's program while admirable may simply fall short of what is required. Through asimple takeover of insolvent banks the administrationcan implement its own programs for goreclosure prevention and aggressive bank lending at attractive rates, but this has to be done early before business go into permanent retrenchment mode and consumers simply revert to a frugal lifestyle of an earlier generation.
Linked Articles
Lending By Bailout Recipients Falls Again
Washington Post 04/16/2009
Banks Ramp Up ForeclosuresWall Street Journal 04/15/2009
FT's Martin Wolf looks at Simon Johnson's argument that Obama is avoiding the tough choices because he has succumbed to pressure from financial elites.
04/14/2009
Wolf looks at Simon Johnson's argument about Obama's dithering on the tough issues like that of insolvent banks, and says America is not like Russia where financial elites controlled the government's way of responding into and out of a crisis.
Linked Articles
Unknown 04/15/2009
Text of Obama Economic SpeechBusinessWeek 04/14/2009
U.S. president Obama and Hispanic immigrants- promises, hope and reality 2008-2015
04/09/2009
Linked Articles
Obama to Push Immigration Bill Despite the Risks
New York Times 04/09/2009
The Giant U.S. Deportation Machine Runs AmokWall Street Journal 10/28/2013
Interest rate swap contracts sold by banks to the city of Detroit in 2005 and the "kiko" derivative contracts sold by banks to exporters in S. Korea before the 2008 global financial crisis
04/03/2009
The huge losses suffered by Detroit and by exporters in S. Korea and how the issues raised were handled in the two places. What takes precedence fairness or contracts, how much of a contract has to be intelligible to the investor and the broader question of why banks needed to write such contracts or conduct business in this way which could hurt their reputation. An example is given by Floyd Norris of NYT where Bankers Trust reputation suffered badly in 1994 for selling such contracts to P&G.
Linked Articles
New York Times 04/03/2009
'Safe Harbor' in Bankruptcy Upended in Detroit CaseNew York Times 12/23/2013
Geithner's Plan for Toxic Assets
03/23/2009
Experts are doubtful Geithner's plan of March 23, 2009 for toxic assets will work. Its similiar to plans previously announced by Paulson in the Bush administration. Views of Krugman, Eavis and Reinhart. If lack of confidence and lack of liquidity were the only problems they say, government money as incentives might work, but the problem is more basic and structural. These mortgage securities are from a time of easy money, now investors are shy of risks and would discount them even more as a safety factor, and banks would not want to sell them at that price. Are stress tests and nationalization of failed banks around the corner?
Linked Articles
Why Congress Will Kill the Bank Rescue
Wall Street Journal 03/24/2009
Geithner's Gamble Needs SpeculatorsWall Street Journal 03/23/2009
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