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Strong criticism from Attorney General Luisa Ortega, and dissension inside the government, led to the Supreme Court retracting parts of its decision to nullify the powers of the legislature. Ortega called the move "a rupture of the constitutional order." Most of the judges are appointed on the court by the Maduro government. Strong criticism by the OAS calling it a "self inflicted coup", by other governments in Latin America, also led to retracting parts of the decision by the Supreme Court. Nicholas Maduro succeeded Mr. Chavez who was the democratically elected president of Venezuela from 1999 to 2013. Maduro narrowly won the election in 2013 by a margin of about 1.5% over Henrique Capriles. In 2015 in National Assembly elections the opposition parties won a majority in the National Assembly. Protests against the Maduro government were followed by a recall attempt in 2016 which was suppressed. Inflation and economic conditions in Venezuela worsened under Maduro with the collapse of oil prices. The devaluation of the currency, high inflation and shortages of basic goods have led to widespread protests. As the situation worsened the Supreme Court in support of the government gradually chipped away at the powers of the National Assembly since 2016, leading to the situation in April 2016 with  the effort to strip the Assembly of all powers and remove the immunity from prosecution of legislators. Maduro is a former bus driver for the city of Caracas bus system, and a trade unionist. He was part of the movement supporting Chavez release after a coup attempt, foreign minister 2006-2013, and appointed Chavez successor in 2012.  Max Fisher and Amanda Taub of the NYT go on to discuss the writings of political scientists, including Dutch expert Cas Mudde, who pointed out that populism often starts its climb because established institutions and elites have become unresponsive to pubic needs. Yet the replacement is with what starts out as an effort to bring fairness- yet ends up creating another elite, suppressing opposition, and creating a new set of problems, even threatening the institutional framework of democracy such as elected assembly as happened last week in Venezuela.  In Venezuela the Chavez populist movement was initially intended to reduce corruption in the court system, the established parties control over media, and ensure oil revenues were used to provide services to poor regions and neighborhoods.  In the process over two decades it introduced a system that set up a Bolivarist class of its own based on socialist goals, failed to integrate the economy into the global economy for modernization, and created an overdependence on oil revenues that hurt the country when prices dropped sharply. High inflation, corruption, shortages of basic goods, and an economy slipping behind neighboring countries in Latin America, are the result by 2017. Seeing the situation in Venezuela in the context of current populist trends in the U.S. and Europe may be a stretch because the situation in Venezuela is unique to Latin America in some ways and is from an earlier period. High inflation, collapsing economy, debt problems and mismanagement of the economy, devaluation of currency, are problems faced by Brazil, Argentina, and other countries in Latin America, happening under conservative as well as populist governments since the 1960's. It is different in two respects, the disconnect with the global economy that prevents modernization, and the trend towards authoritarianism, as seen in Venezuela.     ...

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David Filipov of the Washington Post visits Sochi, site of the 2014 WInter Olympics, three years later to find a city that is bustling even in winter. Before the Olympics Sochi was popular destination for tourists. In 2016 and in 2017 about 6.5 million people visited this city on the Black Sea coastline. With the new facilities built during the Olympics Sochi has become a year round destination. Russian tourists visiting Turkey and Egypt find Sochi an attractive alternative after the road and rail links built into the mountains. Officially sponsored events are giving Sochi more popularity. During the Olympics the estimated $50 billion cost of building facilities was criticized for delays and cost overruns. The better management during the post-Olympic period is showing Sochi has a future as a popular tourist destination.

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Martha Finney's new book "Rebound" talks about how to start over after a job loss and keep ones dignity and self respect, composure and grace in handling that job loss. One shouldn't let it pull oneself down. Thinking too much about it doesn't help. There may be points that are good in the performance appraisal which one can be aware of but overall there are many times when the performance appraisal process has failed and it depends more on who is doing the performance appraisal and the culture and outlook of that person. A different setting and different people and maybe a shift in the line of work may bring very different results. In this world of pink slips because of the economy, its not about the job loss about performance but about a situation entirely beyond one's control. Here too a well composed person, who is willing to try new things and tide over adifficult period with a lot of flexibility and can keep expenses down has a much better advantage.

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Plans to let borrowers who would not be able to keep their home once the Alt A oans reset at a higher rate but who would be able to pay the interest at the initial teaser rate if allowed to do so is the group that is targeted for help. Treasury Department and a coaltion of lenders that Treasury has helped organize that would represent lenders and securitization interests are working out the details. The freeze could be for as long as 7 years. Those who can pay regardless of the increase in rates and those who should never have accepted the loan terms because of their finances would be excluded in this plan. About $352 billion of mortgage loans are due to reset in 2008. This should help the economy and homeowners and also the lenders as they also lose because foreclosures can be costly for lenders. The securitization interests who hold the mortgage securities are also represented and they benefit also because its better to get some interest than no interest at all.

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On the way the majority of people in China's rural areas live, and how their lives have worsened with the market system. A lack of democracy makes it harder for them to get a fair allocation of resources. Lack of press freedoms and no constraints on authorites at the provincial and county levels makes the situation even worse.The support systems for health, education have collapsed in the rural areas. Even though life was drab in the Maoist period, basics such as health care and education were free or nearly free. Efforts are to throw more money at the problem are being made. The government has allocated an higher amount of 340 billion yuan or $42 billion for agricultural development and rural services. But as the Economist points out the money is only about an additional $7 per person for the 800 million in the countryside. A large part of the problem is that the lower levels of the government are run incompetently. The lack of democracy means that these officials are not accountable to the people they govern. No effort has been made to make these officials accountable by having elections at the township, county and provincial level. The Communist party is placing all its hopes of keeping a monopoly of power on its ability to spend and manage its way. The Economist's prediction is that this will fail because only democracy can bring the kind of accountability that is needed in the rural areas. ...

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Research firm Dragonomics says real estate prices fell 4.9% in April from the prior year for nine cities in China. In 2010 prices in these nine cities went up by 21.5%, the increase in 2009 was 10%. Standard Chartered estimates China's second tier cities, such as Dalian and Tianjin, could have 20 months of housing inventory by the end of 2011. Standard Chartered says price declines of 10-20% can be expected. Government data understates the extent of the bubble and the drop in prices say analysts. Beijing real estate consultant, Soufun, confirms the slowdown in price increases, saying its data show average property prices went up by 5.1% in May over the prior year, compared to the jump in prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices of copper and steel are coming down after rapid increases. The price increases in the Chinese real estate market have put housing out of the reach of ordinary couples. In 2006 an average price of a new apartment in Beijing cost $100,000, by 2011 this had gone up to $250,000. It woud take 57 years of saving for an average person to buy the apartment at todays cost. The government's response has been to boost down payments on mortgages for second homes to 60% from 40%, prohibiting state owned enterprises outside the real estate sector from investing in real estate, and raising the reserve requirements of banks....

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Rolf Wetzer, a German metal working factory manager reflects feelings widespread in Germany. He says, we work hard and save our money, and he can't see why Germans have to throw money at countries that cannot do the same. There is considerable negative feeling about the bailout of Greece, because it is seen as brought about by the excessive spending, public corruption, and irresponsible accounting that went on in Greece. There is less negative feeling about the bailout of Ireland, as the Irish are seen as an industrious people, and the crisis was brought upon Ireland by Irish banks. Because of the negative feeling it will be much harder for Angela Merkel to go back to the German parliament for more funds, especially as her popularity has suffered. The existing fund will be stretched by the possible bailout of Portugal and Spain. Germany remains committed to the euro, but there is considerable anger about the bailouts. Germany has benefitted from the euro-zone through its exports, which jumped 31% in the last decade. Germany has a $105 billion trade surplus with the rest of Europe. At the same time there is fear that public opinion may turn against the euro. Thomas Mayer, chief economist at Deutsche Bank, says you can already feel it. Frank Schaeffer, a legislator for the Free Democrats, says that whether Germany needs the same currency as its neighbors is something he has doubts about....

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Jeffrey Immelt of GE makes a critical point in this op-ed article- that the concept of the US transitioning from a technology-based, export-oriented economic powerhouse to a services-led, consumption based economy was a bad idea because it would lead to a loss of jobs, prosperity and prestige. Immelt calls it "fundamentally wrong." In this piece he makes the point repeatedly and takes his role as head of the President's Council on Jobs and Competitiveness seriously, saying that there is nothing inevitable about the decline of manufacturing in America, that it can and must be reversed. For over two decades business leaders have taken a complacent attitude about the effects of a continued decline of manufacturing in America and the loss of jobs in the US, even as they built plants and expanded overseas. Now for the first time Immelt articulates a new policy for government and business leaders. He says businesses should invest more in advanced products and technologies that create jobs in the US. In doing this he joins Intel's Andy Grove and other business leaders who expressed a growing frustration with the pessimism that this loss of jobs and competitiveness is creating among young people in the US, and the cloud it is creating about America's future. Immelt adds that it is imperative to care about what happens at home in the US, and the growing pessimism that lack of jobs growth in the US creates should not be accepted....

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The Spanish government said on May 23, 2012 that it will provide 9 billion euros to help Bankia cover capital provisions for bad loan losses. The government took control of Bankia in early May 2012. Bankia was formed by merging 7 troubled cajas savings banks. It has about 10% of Spain's loans and deposits. Bankia has the largest exposure of financial institutions in Spain to real estate loans. Of 37.52 billion euros in loans for real estate, about half or 17.85 billion euros are troubled loans. Spain's approach to the banking crisis from the real estate bubble was to merge failing banks with smaller amounts of government money as aid, and having the new entities raise cash through initial public offerings. For Bankia most of the nonperforming loans were separated and placed in BFA, the parent company. Bankia did an IPO in July 2011 raising 3 billion euros. Since the IPO Bankia has lost half the value in its share price for large losses to investors. Under new capital provisioning rules set by the government for banks to adequately cover nonperforming real estate loans, Bankia needs 7.1 billion euros. An additional 1.9 billion euros is needed for capital requirements for a total of 9 billion euros, which is the amount of the capital injection by the Spanish government. Finance minister Guindos told parliament that the rest of the Spanish banking system can withstand adverse scenarios....

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The Supreme Court upheld the provision under an Arizona state law that requires police to check the immigration status of people stopped for traffic and other offenses. By a vote of 6-2 the Supreme Court voided the provision that made it a state crime to fail to carry federal registration papers. By a vote of 5-3 it voided the provision that provided for jail time for immigrants not carrying federal registration papers. Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote the majority opinion that includes Justices Roberts, Ginsburg, Breyer and Sotomayor, and said: "The government of the United States has broad, undoubted power over the subject of immigration and the status of aliens... Immigration policy can affect trade, investment, tourism and diplmatic relations for the entire nation." At the same time Justice Kennedy said " the problems posed to the State by illegal immigration must not be underestimated," saying that "unauthorized aliens, were responsible for a disproportionate share of serious crime." Unauthorized aliens are only 8.9% of the population of Maricopa County which includes Pheonix, but caused 21.8% of the felonies. The part of the Arizona law SB 1070 that stated the illegal immigrant seeking work was commiting a crime, was struck down on the grounds that this "would interfere with the careful balance struck by Congress" for the labor market in which only employers are committing a crime. Justice Kennedy reminded the country that it was still a nation of immigrants....

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The steps taken at a meeting of Europe's leaders in March 2011. The European Financial Stability Facility will be allowed to disburse its entire 440 billion euros if needed, and it will be allowed to buy bonds in government auctions but not on the secondary market. Interest rates were reduced on loans to Greece and repayment terms were extended. But this fund can only buy bonds of countries receiving bailout money, which means Portugal will not see a decline in its interest rates for benchmark government bonds. Interest rates on Portuguese 10 year bonds remained high at 7.4%. Greek bonds saw a lowering of interest rates, but Ireland saw no change. What is needed now is a plan that will bring interest rates down for these countries, say analysts. And they say the plan agreed on by EU leaders fall short. If interest rates do not go down for these countries the debt keeps piling up, especially when austerity measures lower the economic growth rates of Greece and Portugal. Both Greece and Portugal do not have a competitive export industry, which places the burden entirely on austerity measures and revenue raising steps. The perverse scenario analysts fear is that debt continues to grow because of high interest rates at low or declining growth rates. While some relief was offered to Greece the situation is still precarious, and analysts estimate Greece's debt increasing to 160% of GDP from 127 % of GDP by 2013....

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The Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan, one of two safety regulators in Japan, met in October 2010. At that meeting a presentation by Takanori Tanaka, head of the government supported Nuclear Power Engineering Center, advocated new technologies that would reduce risk in the event of earthquakes and tsunamis. The presentation focussed on new plants and did not go into retrofitting old plants with new backup solutions for cooling in the event of electrical failure. A recent article by Hitachi researchers brought up the idea of isolation condensers which could provide temporary power supplies in the event of electrical failure. One such device was on No. 1 reactor at Fukushima (built in 1971), and worked after the quake but later failed. The views of nuclear engineers at Hitachi discussed here show that cost remains a constraint in the design of nuclear reactor cooling systems, and redundancy with several layers of diverse backup systems for cooling are not being pushed by companies building the reactors. See the group articles for G.E.'s Mark 1 system which show cost and easier to build were factors behind the smaller containment systems favored for that design. Fukushima plant uses the Mark 1 reactors. Without independent safety regulation that does not rely on the companies for analysis and solutions, regulation risks becoming too dependent on companies for coming up with the strong safety precautions that are absolutely essential. These safety precautions can succumb to cost pressures....

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A Joint Editorial by U.S. president Barack Obama and India's prime minister Narendra Modi in the Washington Post on September 30, 2014. Strobe Talbot, a former deputy Secretary of State says he does not remember a situation in which this type of joint editorial was put out by two heads of government. Speaking on Indian television "Times Now" with Arnab Goswami, Talbot says this is a result of intense advance preparation on both sides that he is personally aware of from his contacts in the two governments. The editorial says the two countries are "natural allies" using the words of former BJP Indian prime minister Vajpayee. It emphasizes the fact recognized by both sides that the true potential of the relationship has not been realized. It sees the election of a new government in India (with a decisive mandate) as a natural opportunity to move the relationship in line with India's rapid development agenda, and the U.S. own need to generate economic growth. Specifically Modi and Obama plan to discuss building up Indian manufacturing, and expanding affordable renewable energy including nuclear. The "Clean India" program is received with particular enthusiasm and an area of collaboration for improving sanitation and hygiene throughout the country. The relationship is viewed as bigger than projects and investment, in that it can add to helping build a more peaceful future for the global community- with the two countries tradition of interest in peaceful development that benefits all nations....

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The art of storytelling is important to startup companies and to job candidates in any field. What makes you interesting or different and worth the commitment as a startup or job candidate is the silent question that is posed in encounters with the public or the interviewer. Alina Tugend touches on the personal narrative we all need to get right for advancement. The Freytag pyramid provides a structure for the storytelling- with the first part the scene, second the rising action, third the turning point, fourth the denouement or closing which gives the listener some sort of release. For it to be effective our narrative has to be about our unique experiences with detail, it has to be genuine, it does not have to be perfect, just make that connection and gain empathy, trust of the listener, hopefully a new fan. For it to be real it becomes important to not self-censor. Other people may have the same experience but it is not talked about much, that itself may add to its newness and claim to being something fresh, and it may take some courage overcoming fear of ridicule to tell the story. Telling stories also can work to bring an organization or different departments work better around shared perceptions, values and goals. In this sense stories and narrative are about everyday life and anywhere we are trying to achieve something worthwhile. ...

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China's leading online retailer with its own warehouses and delivery similiar to Amazon is JD.com. It has 118 warehouses in 39 Chinese cities, and 1045 smaller pickup centers in 500 smaller cities. Its online service and infrastructure to support it has been built carefully since 2006. It can now deliver by 3pm the next day and handles 2 million orders per day. The company raised $1.78 billion on the NASDAQ in the U.S. in 2014. Hong Kong venture capital firm invested $10 million in 2006. As it added new systems and software other investors including Tiger Global, Yuri Milner, and the Waltons invested in the firm. JD focusses on low cost and reliable fast delivery using motorbikes for 20,000 couriers for China's congested traffic in cities. It is a unique combination of Amazon, UPS and Wal-Mart in its innovative way of running its retail operation. Liu is the son of a cargo shipowner from Jiangsu province who studied sociology at Renmin University in Beijing, before starting an electronics store in Beijing's high tech zone Zhongguancun. The online retail idea took off when he setup an online store in 2004. He says a lot has changed since the early days when delivery was slow with many customer complaints, and says logistics is important because of user experience. Because JD charges little for delivery margins are thin, and the company has focussed on growing the user base over profitability....

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Russia's economic planners and president Putin underestimated the importance of foreign investment to build its tech sector and diversify the economy away from its dependence on oil and gas commodity exports. The strong balance sheet with only 20% of GDP in government debt and over $300 billion in foreign exchange reserves created a false sense of security. An adventurous foreign policy has resulted in western sanctions and a poor investment climate crippling much needed foreign investment. Capital flight exposed vulnerabilities in the economic situation and cracks were evident in the emerging markets crisis in early 2014. Russian corporations were exposed as they depended on access to financial markets which was reduced with EU and U.S. sanctions. These problems were compounded by Dec. 2015 as OPEC led by Saudi Arabia did not cut back production to offset higher shale oil supplies, leading to the drop in oil prices below $50. Experts see the drop as being a lasting factor and Russia's finance minister sees no rebound of oil prices to $100 as happened after 2008, accepting a long term situation of low oil prices. This increases dependence on oil says Barley. It shows how Russia under Putin had grown complacent about the risks to the economy of not forging ahead with an aggressive plan of diversifying into tech and related sectors. In a competitive global economy the risks of standing still, of complacency, misallocation of resources, poor decisions, and weak political processes, can be disastrous....

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Ailworth and Faucon describe the ways in which shale oil producers such as Continental Resources in Texas and S. Dakota are responding to the drop in oil prices. One strategy adopted is to put off 60% of the expense of production by not completing the final stages of production of hydraulic fracturing, but keeping the wells ready so that production can quickly be ramped up if prices go to the $60-65 range. EOG Resources, Andarko, Apache, Chesapeake Energy, are also following this strategy. There are about 3000 such wells, not pumping but drilled and ready for hydraulic fracturing, according to RBC Capital Markets estimates. This strategy would mean large shale oil supplies well into the future to keep oil prices low. Production from lower cost wells continues with U.S. oil production climbing to a new high of 9.4 million barrels a day for week ending March 6, 2015, according to federal data. This shows that this is a new situation and the resilience of shale oil supplies may have been underestimated. Another strategy adopted by other large companies such as Exxon is to continue to develop technology by learning to get the oil out of the rock in the most cost efficient way. The capital investment in U.S. shale oil has dropped by $50 billion in 2015 compared to 2014. The number of oil rigs drilling declined to 866 in the U.S. by March 2015, according to Baker Hughes....

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Galston says the Hillary Clinton campaign strategy may be flawed. Following a president from the same party who has served two terms is difficult for a presidential candidate because of an anti-incumbency mood that sets in after 8 years. Galston cites an expert from Emory University about this costing the incumbent party about 4 percentage points in votes. This would eliminate President Obama's 3.9 percentage point win in 2012, says Galston. Hillary Clinton's cautious campaign sticking to the themes set by the Obama campaign and appealing to the core base of young people, women, minorities, and upscale professionals, runs the risk of not appealing to other voters needed such as the working class white voters. Stanley Greenberg, a pollster with much experience is cited by Galston as showing that the women's vote also is not the same for Democrats. Among unmarried white women for instance it has dropped from a 20 point margin in 2008 for Mr. Obama to a 4 point margin in 2012. By 2014 this was down to 2 points, and in 2015 this is now down to zero margin, with both Republicans and Democrats even among unmarried white women. Unmarried and working class white women are described by Greenberg as looking for a candidate who can help the middle class, with Democrats perceived as the party of government and special interests, making the 2016 election different from the ones before it....

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Gretchen Morgenson cites two views on the newly approved Volcker Rule in December 2013. Prof. Richard Sylla of New York University sees the rule as going part way in the direction of the Glass-Steagall Act, which gave the financial markets five or six decades of financial stability. Just the fact that the rule is on the books should give the bank officers pause before engaging in questionable financial activities, is his view. Prof. David Skeel of the University of Pennsylvania Law School, believes only aggressive enforcement can make the law work because of the way it is written. He says regulators have fallen short in enforcement in the past and have not been held accountable. Only by making regulators accountable, including penalties for regulators failing to do their job, would this work says Skeel. By not imposing penalties for regulatory failures in the last crisis there is more likelihood for this sort of behaviour to continue. Instead the same regulators are now given greater powers after an earlier failure. Considering the Skeel view, the importance of the attestation- that is now required from bank senior executives that the Volcker Rule's provisions are being followed- take on an important role in ensuring enforcement. This also coincides with Mr. Volcker's view that the bank officers should have to take on the responsibility for making sure that they are doing it the right way....

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Judge Richard Leon of the District of Columbia agrees with Senators Wyden, Udall and Heinrich that the NSA's bulk collection of phone data program in the U.S. violates the Fourth Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. This is the first successfu legal challenge to the program. It was put forward by Larry Klayman, a conservative public-interest lawyer. The American Civil Liberties Union has filed a similiar lawsuit in the Southern District of New York. In his ruling Judge Leon, appointed by president Bush in 2002, said: "I cannot imagine a more indiscriminate and arbitrary invasion than this systematic and high tech collection and retention of personal data on virtually every single citizen for purposes of querying and analyzing it without prior judicial approval. Surely such a program infringes on that degree of privacy that the founders enshrined in the Fourth Amendment." Judge Leon stayed his injunction for 6 months so that the government can appeal his ruling because of the national security interests involved. The U.S. government's case was made with the argument that there are no fourth Amendment protections for collection of metadata information such as numbers called and received, date and time and duration as reflected in the 1979 case, Smith v. Maryland. Judge Leon rejected this saying that in the 34 years since that case the whole relationship of people with the phone has changed and the record collection with today's technology reveals a constantly updating picture of a person's life....

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In the 2004 elections Islamic parties in Indonesia had 38% of the vote, this dropped to 28% in 2009, and polls show it is expected to drop to 20% in upcoming 2014 elections. The high of 38% in 2004 followed years of corruption under the Suharto regime and promises of clean government from Islamic parties. The anti-corruption issue has been taken up by successive governments and the popular Yudhoyono administration, leaving Islamic parties without that issue. Missing in this account of Indonesia and Islamic parties is a little bit of history that throws light on the subject. Indonesia was Hindu for the longest period of any large Muslim nation in Asia. In fact Indonesia converted to Islam only about 400 years ago, and has a strong underlying Hindu and Buddhist tradition including reverence for the Hindu god Hanuman, which can be found nowhere else. The Islam of the Crusades and of expansion across the Asian and European continent is a phenomenon foreign to the Indonesian islands. Gajah Mada who helped bring most of Malaya, Indonesia and parts of the Philippines under the Hindu Majapahit empire around 1350, was a symbol of patriotism in the fight against Dutch colonial rule from 1700-1948. The conversion to Islam came with Muslim traders from Malaya in the period 1400-1600. The name Indonesia itself is from a Greek word indus and enos for islands used by British ethnologist George Earl to refer to the archipelago. ...

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ECB president, Mario Draghi, is interviewed at his office in Frankfurt by the Wall Street Journal's Blackstone, Karnitschnig, and Thomson. Draghi quotes economist Rudi Dornbusch, who told him in the old days that the Europeans were rich enough to afford paying for it if everybody didn't work. Draghi, was head of the Bank of Italy, before becoming president of the ECB. He is acutely aware of the problems faced by Italy and other countries like Spain which have let labor markets become rigid, with extensive job protections and generous benefits for the unemployed. The result is that employers are reluctant to hire and young people face high unemployment rates- as high as 50% in Spain. For this reason Draghi sees the old social model in Europe as obsolete and already out. Draghi's sees austerity measures and spending cuts with the structural changes underway in Spain, Italy and other countries as the only way to generate economic renewal. On the Long Term Financing Operation launched by the ECB in Dec. 2011, Draghi says there was agreement within the ECB and the decision was unanimous. He makes it one of his objectives to achieve as much consensus as he can, to do what is right for Europe and to do it together with his colleagues in the ECB and the EU. That financing operation, and the binding deficit controls achieved at a recent summit of European leaders, he sees as all part of the pathway to fiscal union. ...

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Yale University professor Robert Shiller, founded CAPE, the cyclically adjusted and inflation adjusted S&P price earnings ratio. It takes the average of the 10 past years of earnings and the inflation adjusted S&P 500 index to arrive at this CAPE P/E ratio. Here he looks at CAPE in 2000, 2007 and 2013, to get a sense of where the U.S. stock market stands today and investor confidence. In 2000 CAPE reached 46, in 2007 it was at 27 and in 2013 it has reached 23. The historical average for CAPE is 15- this goes back in data to 1871. Zweig in the WSJ March 8, 2013, cites data from the last 50 years showing the historical adjusted P/E at 19.7. The investor confidence in the stock market or "valuation confidence" based on work done by Shiller is at 72% for institutional investors and 62% for individual investors in 2013, it was about 80% for both categories before the market peak in 2007. This data is on the website of the Yale School of Management. Shiller says the levels of optimism can fluctuate and change easily, requiring careful thinking by investors. He confirms Browning's assertion in the WSJ March 6, 2013, that in inflation adjusted terms investors are not ahead in the last 13 years, when compared to 2000, based on the inflation corrected S&P Composite total return index....

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Huge losses sustained by sovereign wealth funds. Estimated $350 billion for Gulf foreign reserve funds and SWF's, according to RGE Monitor's Rachel Ziemba, or 27% of assets. Sovereign Wealth funds are either using their funds for supporting their local banks as in the Gulf areas, or buying back stakes of cash strapped western banks like RBS in the case of China. Russia, China and other countries are using their SWF's for stimulus spending. And Russia, Gulf economies that are dependent on oil prices, are looking at possible sale of foreign assets at oil prices between $50 and a deterioration to $25. Only China has a surplus that is sustained through the last quarter of 2008, but this is changing quickly as imports pick up after the stimulus kicks in, and exports drop precipitiously in 2010. South Korea and Russia have also learned of the need to have liquid safe investments preferably in dollars in the current crisis, as they have learned how large capital outflows can get in a short time. And the US is not looking at these large capital inflows from overseas as a benevolent thing, because it overvalues American assets, and leads to all sorts of distortions in liquidity and pricing of risk that contributed to the current crisis. In short the whole situation with SWF's has a suprising ending, as with everything in the current crisis, nothing worked out as expected or planned....