LyrArc Article Gist
The $25 billion mortgage settlement of Feb. 2012, between large U.S. banks and state attorneys general. $17 billion will go to homeowners. Experts say this is good for the banks because it reduces legal uncertainty, and for state attoneys general- it will not be enough to significantly impact the difficult situation in the U.S. housing market.

LyrArc Article Gist
Edward DeMarco is head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), which is the independent regulatory agency overseeing U.S. housing lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The FHFA was formed in 2008 after merging two existing agencies. Later that year Fannie and Freddie were taken over by the government. FHFA head, DeMarco, is reluctant to help homeowners with underwater mortgages on their homes with reduced payments because this would mean losses to the taxpayer. He sees his mandate as protecting the taxpayer. Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, says she understands DeMarco's mandate is not to provide fiscal stimulus, and the Obama administration has been all over the place when it comes to providing homeowner assistance. The result is that there is little help by the U.S. government to homeowners with underwater mortgages since 2008, and this creates larger headwinds for the Federal Reserve Bank to provide momentum to the U.S. economy. Many experts see this as a serious problem and a well respected economist, Martin Feldstein, has made repeated proposals for structuring the help to homeowners since 2008. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
How will countries like India generate jobs when technology enables manufacturing and other activity to do work with fewer and fewer people. Even Hon Hai in China is shifting work to robots. Technological progress is leaving more people unemployed and widening income gaps with the benefits going to a few people, says the Economist in this research based essay. It will require carefully managed governance to invest in infrastructure, raise skills of less skilled workers through education, and wage subsidies for those left behind to ensure our current system works in the future.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr Greenspan's libertarian views influenced by a novelist of all people, who is frail just like all of us however intelligent her views may seem, when taken as dogma. Taking his cue from Ayn Rand, who presented collective power as evil force set against the enlightened self-interest of individuals, he proceeded to let this enlightened self-interest run free in an ambitious American experiment devoid of all restraints and common sense. He came in in the days of Reagan and "the evil empire " and the philosophy of Milton Friedman of minimal government intervention in markets, and the view presented by Europeans like Hayek about the economy and freedom. But views become dogma and then defeat common sense. Buffett used common sense and always considered human beings and their frailties as part of the problem as well as the opportunity. Greenspan let these views of his defeat plain common sense and excluded the role of human beings and their weaknesses, in any scheme of things. This undid him and his reputation in the end as far as derivatives like mortgage securities are concerned. Plain common sense required as Buffett did- that as the risks of derivative contracts increased as they practically became the way risk was managed and distributed throughout the economy- to consider their opaqueness, and the way risk was distributed with the failure of one financial firm bringing down the others and the whole economy; with the way each were interdependent and tied up in the risk distribution for the capital that helped run the whole economy. Derivatives were created to soften risk or hedge against investment losses. For example some of the contracts protect debt holders against investment losses on mortgage securites. Their name comes from the fact that their value derives from underlying assets like stocks, bonds and commodities. What they allow to happen is the increase in leveraging and the taking on of more risk as for instance issuing more mortgage debt or corporate debt. As these contracts can be traded they enable companies to take on more risk by spreading the risk among more and more parties. The original issuer of this debt has the sense that somehow, as one expert put it, that by tossing this packaged as a complex derivative type security into outer space this risk would somehow disappear in that cosmos, so that more of the same could be done into infinity. Plain common sense like Buffett's would say otherwise and point to the danger when the whole scheme would get undone by the failure of some big financial firms, as the scheme becomes huge enveloping the economy, the very interdependence would bring down the whole economy. The very complexity of opaquenes of this way of dealing would make it impossible or difficult in the extreme to identify where the risk was lying, and take it out by firm governmental measures in an environment of fear. Requiring days not months for actions to work. This is what has happened. And the crucial weakness of overleveraged investment banking firms which depend on rollng over short term debt was not understood by any of the players, Congress, Greenspan, Summers, Rubin, Cox or Levitt or the quants on Wall Street with their elaborate models. All of these people worked to prevent Congress passing legislation regulating derivatives, or to silence the skeptics in Congress or government agencies as documented by Peter Goodman of the NYT. It was Chase's demand for more collateral of $5 billion to roll over short term debt of Lehman Brothers to pay for the perceived additional risk of overleveraged Lehman at 1:30 ratio of debt to capital, in an extreme risk averse environment, that led to the unraveling of that firm in a matter of days. Good common sense like Buffetts- who described dervatives like the mortgage securities as weapons of mass destruction, that were issued en masse and sent to remote corners of the world including a small town near the North Pole in Scandinavia- considered that this environment of fear of the unknown that brought down the investment banking firms in a matter of days, was also one face of the market. This had to be included in the arithmetic and understanding of the market. He also understood as plain common sense that there are no extraordinary theories and nothing extraterrestrial that will dispense with the basics and exercise of good sense That no matter what fancy name you put on it derivatives derived their strength from being less and less transparent and distribution and interdependence across a vast financial spectrum with higher and higher tight interlinking of financial firms to each other, with all their consequences in an unraveling making the ride down as painful and mass destructive as the joy ride on the way up. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The home ownership rate for the U.S. in March 2012, is 65.4%, the same rate as in 1997 before the housing bubble, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The irony of this is that the housing bubble was inflated by politicians in Congress and mortgage lenders and purchasers of mortgage securities. Fannie Mae and Countryside worked together ostensibly to promote home ownership while pursuing profits. In the case of politicians they pursued goals of raising employment and growth without understanding the risks of artificially inflating home ownership, and without consideration for incomes of subprime borrowers. A less benign view of the interests and goals of politicians comes from reflections on the impact of political lobbying by Fannie Mae and other housing lenders in the U.S. Congress. The consequences in terms of foreclosures have been devastating for minorities as well as other middle class homeowners. It has also damaged the U.S. banking system, credit growth in the economy and prospects for recovery, which will take years to correct. The federal government is also saddled with large losses at Fannie Mae because of its quasi government agency role. That role led to inflation of the bubble. Most of the consequences will be borne by middle and lower income households in the U.S. The pass-through effects in a global economy affect Europe, and emerging market countries. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Keith Bradsher visits Guangzhou, China, just as prime minister Wen Jiabao tells the National People's Congress that China is changing its priorities from high growth to sustainable development. As recently as 2007 GDP growth reached 14%! The minimum wage is expected to rise 13% each year under the five year plan. Even with the increase in wages owning an apartment is unaffordable in Guangzhou- a 1000 square feet apartment costs upward of $300,000, showing the extent to which the bubble in real estate prices affects young people who cannot afford to own an apartment. A new graduate with marketable skills such as computer engineering makes about $6000 a year, putting owning an apartmet beyond reach. Another change he notices today is that during visits to construction sites he does not see flood lit sites at night. This used to be the case because builders were scrambling to build. With government policies discouraging the property bubble there is no longer a need for work at night. The focus now has shifted to build low income housing....

LyrArc Article Gist
ECB president Mario Draghi tells a newsconference on April 14, 2015, that the bond buying program is "proceeding smoothly." He said that he does not see scarcity in the bond market. The ECB plans to continue its purchases of government bonds and other debt at a rate of 60 billion euros a month through September 2016. He said the program of very low interest rates for a very long time "is fertile terrain for financial instability imbalances," but he did not see evidence of systemically large financial imbalances at this time. The ECB approach would be to tackle the risks by using its power as a bank regulator, not by changing monetary policy, said Draghi. He was optimistic about the initial results, saying "more accomodative monetary policy is being translated into better credit conditions, which is something we have not seen before." The euro is down to $1.06 and low oil prices have helped improve economic conditions, as well as ongoing structural reforms pushed by the EU and ECB. Draghi's forecast for economic growth in the eurozone is now up from 1% to 1.5% for 2015....

LyrArc Article Gist
"China's Superbank," by Henry Sanderson and Michael Forsythe looks at the rise of China Development Bank to provide insights into the two decade real estate boom in China, and the trillions of dollars in loans made by state owned banks to finance China's state owned industries and infrastructure development. The authors say these loans based on land owned by the state, improved with roads and other infrastructure and then sold to industry, have helped finance China's urbanization and industrial development. But it has also created problems including eviction of farmers from the land by local government authorites increasing inequality, led to misallocation of capital on bad projects, and an unsustainable model of development focussed on state owned companies. A major side effect of this is not covered in the book. This is the impact of crowding out of credit for private industry in China, with privately owned business having to pay higher rates in the underground loan market or lacking financing. A major focus of the report "China: 2030" by the World Bank and China's official think tank Development Research Center is on reversing this development to come up with a sustainable development model. The report was supported by World Bank chief Zoellick and China's new prime minister Li Keqiang. "The Great Rebalancing," by Pettis, a finance professor at Beijing University, looks at the other side of the financing of China's boom- the low interest rates on savings for China's consumer. This reduces household incomes and reduces purchasing power as the interest rates are lower than the rate of inflation. Lower value of China's currency also reduces the purchasing power for China's consumers. Estimates show the low interest rates cost China's workers and consumers somewhere in the range of 3 to 8% of GDP annually in bank deposit income. This money is funnelled through the banking system to make more loans for infrastructure and growth at the state owned companies, concentrating exraordinary level of financing in one direction. As a result the consumption share of GDP in China has actually fallen in the two decades of hyper development. This is about 34% compared to 50-55% for other Asian economies....

LyrArc Article Gist
Since 2004 consumer spending's share of the economy in China has fallen from 40% to 35%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The enthusiasm for Six Sigma was carried by McInerney from GE to 3M. 3M was sluggish at the time and growing bureaucratic over time so an outsider and the efficiency focus of getting more for every buck spent and focus on quality in all processes and designing for quality and reduced defects may have helped to bring a new dimension to 3M. But as the author reflects and Buckley who stepped into McInerney's shoes says aloud, as well as several B School Professors, this imposed on a culture like 3M's that thrived on innovation, the post it note being a classic example, was not going to produce the best results in the long run. Interestingly GE itself under Immelt has emphasized innovation, research and development in addition to Quality Control. Going back over the years Japanese QC actually was taken from earlier work at GE in the 30's and 40's in Quality Control, so it was natural for GE to return to its own accomplishments in this area after a period when it had lost its leading edge in Quality. But foremost GE was about innovation and creativity and new products, back from its origins with Thomas Edison's company. The other GE person Nardelli at Home Depot also tried to bring a numbers only focus and doing it in a marine corps seargent type of way stumbled badly and resigned. So this piece on McInerney and buckley and 3M reflects a quiet shift to thinking of new ways to approach the complex global markets of today and the global competition of today. And the rapidly changing marketplace where shifts in buyer behaviour and competitor innovation create a constantly changing playing field. Is Tata Motors small car at an incredibly low price going to change the car industry, if the same companies can then make better cars at a much lower cost after developing lowcost high quality technologies? What is happening as Apple and then HP achieve success by selling their brands through stores and Dell starts to slip? Why is P&G and Unilever looking at the prospects in selling to consumers with smaller budgets and shifting its focus to these markets for growth? Doesnt this require one to think on ones feet and listen and observe and reflect on what these changes mean? Roger Martin of the University of Toronto has a piece in BW, May 21, 2007, with a similiar thought. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The skills to navigate different personalities and work patiently on the issues surrounding changes to the U.S. tax system of Rep. Dave Camp (MI), chairman of the U.S House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee, will be immensely useful in the effort to make changes to the U.S. tax system. Camp works well with fellow House Republican leaders Boehner, Ryan, Cantor, and his Democratic counterpart in the U.S. Senate Max Baucus. Camp is a good listener, refuses to engage in partisan criticism, and has the patience to work through difficult issues of achieving savings and keeping fairness in the the tax changes. Earlier efforts to achieve consensus in late 2011 failed, making it even more important to have leadership which can create productive debate and bridge the differences. The tax changes are part of the overall effort for U.S. economic recovery by reducing the deficit.

LyrArc Article Gist
The team of 5 engineers decided they would produce the first Vande Bharat train in 18 months- Project 18. The Indian Express talks to the team of original engineers who were on Project 18.  They are all part of Chennai Integral Coach Factory, setup with Swiss collaboration in 1955. By 2019 the first train was operational at speeds of 180 km per hour, semi-high speed and setting the transition to high speed trains developed entirely within India. Sudanshu Mani, General Manager of ICF, headed this effort and set the target of 18 months. He says China used to import all its trains and one day just decided to make its own- he asked himself the same question, why don't we make our own? Mani was in Berlin for 3 years on an earlier collaboration for train technology in the 1980's. By the 1990's this technology was 20 years old he says. That's how long it took to get anything done in those days, by the time it got started the technology would be obsolete. By 2018 just 2 years before retirement Sudanshu set up the Project 18 team convinced that this was the only way to get it done- to beat the odds. Devi Prasad Dash heads electrical engineering. Srinivas heads mechanical engineering. Pradhan is Chief Design Engineer. They did everything from scratch. There are 5000 others who worked on the project. Dash says it was like T20 cricket, just that they decided to do it in 18 overs. Ever wonder why the train is all white and with blue stripe? Subranshu who was chief mechanical engineer at the time says they tried other colors. Manish Pradhan says they decided on white after one thought that Indian trains are never white because we had that belief that anything white would get dirty faster. That is when we decided to make it all white and it will not look dirty, he says. Sudanshu Mani says he would close his eyes and he would see always the old Indian trains that one would see from the 1960's from Ahmedabad to Rameswaram, and onto Colombo after the ferry. At that time Colombo had Canadian coaches and locomotives under a Canadian aid plan from Talaimannar to Colombo which were like American trains, looked miles into the future.The same thing must have happened to Chinese engineers because Chinese premier Chou-en-lai visited the ICF in Chennai in the 1950's and wrote that Chinese engineers could learn about the new Swiss technologies from ICF Chennai. That is when the Swiss were building their own trains with European technology of that time. China and India, and Japan had no idea about the high speed trains that were in the future. This is how technology advances. This is how people build better lives and how the aspirations and hopes of younger generations become a reality. Somewhere in the dim light of the past there is a Chinese engineer with the undaunted courage, concentration and determination to "Just Do It," and before that a Japanese engineer, and before that a Swiss engineer designing a train for the Swiss Alps, a Canadian or American engineer designing newer trains for the Prairies all the way to British Columbia and California. All dreaming Big and executing Well, with the resources of each country there to aid them each step of the way. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner says Republicans are working to thwart the Dodd-Frank legislation- by slowing down and diluting the impact of rules required to be written under Dodd-Frank, crimping the resources of regulatory agencies, and blocking the nominations of heads of regulatory agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

LyrArc Article Gist
The failure of the MF Global Board of Directors to question the huge bets on European sovereign bonds taken by Jon Corzine. This board had members with sophisticated knowledge of financial markets. Then why did it act passively, asks Davidoff. Boards have some of the same blinkers that the CEO has, and may have been led to believe that this was a good course of action. Failure of boards of directors in recent times include a long list- Lehman Brothers, GM, H-P, Toyota, most recently Olympus, and others. In some cases as with Corzine and the head of Lehman, one sees a headstrong executive with a history of success, in others as at GM and Toyota the Board is stacked with members selected by or favorable to voting with the CEO. And at H-P or Olympus, an inside group that runs things the way they see fit. Most boards of this type are highly insulated from outside opinion, and highly confirmed in the correctness of their own opinion even when the situation has dangerously deteriorated.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mohamed El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, on the European crisis. Things he says to watch, whether the Greece problem is treated for what it is, which is a solvency not a liquidity problem. The current solution he says relies too much on fiscal cuts which can end up worsening the recession, and keeps Greece under a cloud that will further reduce new investment and lead to drops in GDP, and the increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio for Greece is likely. He calls defending Greece's high debt not something that can be defended with the actions taken to date. Other things to watch are whether ways can be found to limit the damage for European growth and the world economy, and whether serious steps can be taken to limit market swings that are a result of investors again overleveraging themselves. See other expert opinions Shiller, Grantham, Roubini. As in earlier comments he sees slower growth ahead.