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A recent study by the IMF shows that China has accumulated foreign exchange reserves that are twice what would be needed for traditional purposes such as supporting the economy in a financial crisis. China is still very much a developing country with per capita annual income of $3000, low consumer spending, and rising inflation. This makes the policy of accumulating reserves and preserving an undervalued exchange rate to support export companies counterproductive. There is growing debate about this as inflation is becoming difficult to control. Yu Yongding, an advisor to the PBOC monetary policy committee says China as a developing country should not be exporting capital, which should be used to raise living standards. A rising exchange rate would increase spending power of people throughout China. Fan Gang, head of China's National Economic Research Institute, was a member of the central bank monetary policy committee. He wrote in a recent essay arguing for a higher exchange rate, and societal, tax and other changes that help increase China's household spending. Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan said recently that China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded reasonable levels that the country needs, adding to inflation risks and making it difficult to conduct monetary policy. The reserves are now over $3 trillion, pasing that mark in March 2011 after increasing 25% in the last year....

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Says El-Erian, CEO of PIMCO, the future, which he and his colleagues at PIMCO like to call the "new normal," will be quite unfamiliar. Most people had become conditioned by the experience of what is normal under a finance driven economy, deregulation and globalization. Now he says things will not revert back to their previous states in spite of all the government's efforts to restore the normality. With all the flexibility and regenrative forces at work, these will not be sufficient to offset the disruptions that have taken place. For one thing the growth rate will slow. Annual trend growth rate won't look like the previous number. He says forget the 3% annual growth rate of the last 15 years. The number will be more like 2% or less when the economy recovers. See the link to lower USA growth rates in the future. He sees unemployment high in the next 3-5 years, with a floor of 6%. The financial system in the US will be carefully regulated, and look more like a utility. And the anglo-saxon model of capitalism, which gives finance a central role will be seen worldwide as too crisis prone and risky. With global growth shifting to India, China and Brazil, the shift of wealth and economic dynamism to these countries will accelerate, in a context of lower worldwide growth....

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Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, agrees with Paul Krugman's point made in a recent NYT op-ed column favoring staying on the course the Bernanke Fed has set, which is to continue its policy of monetary expansion as long as credit is tight and the economy is weak. The Fed has expanded monetary reserves Coy says by 114% over this year through May. The biggest increase since 1960 has been 16%. Coy says there is good reason for this. As other experts have pointed out, see links, most of the extra money the Fed has introduced into the economy has piled up in the reserves of banks. Consumers who who have debt at about 100% of USA GDP are not borrowing, businesses are not borrowing to invest, banks are not lending as before, and consumers are in a long period of debt reduction that will take years. This is why it is not inflationary. Consumer frugality, see links, is another factor that makes this situation a long term change in consumer behaviour, and a force for deflation. All this is happening in the background of a huge slack in the system as manufacturing capacity utilization is low at 68% and unemployment is increasing. Which is why informed experts looking at the situation on the ground see staying the course as the right action plan....

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How a new energy and environment panel created at the urging of democratic leaders and Speaker Nancy Pelosi is taking a stand on climate change and fuel economy standards for automakers. Democratic Rep Ed Markey of Massachusetts heads this panel. He is having to overcome opposition from Michigan Rep Jon Dingell who heads the Energy and Commerce Committee and who represents the interests of automakers in Congress. Right now the Senate has already passed legislation for a increase of fuel ecomomy to 35 mpg for all cars and light trucks with bipartisan support. Mr. Dingell is holding out in the House, by calling for economy wide legislation for climate change and for looking at the consequences of the Senate legislation more closely, moves that would put off any change for 1-3 years. Will Ed Markey be able to insert fuel economy standards into the energy bill that is now before the House?

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Roland Nelles gives 6 reasons why chancellor Merkel is likely to run for chancellor in 2017 and do well. Nelles says the alternative is a Greens, Left party, SPD coalition as in Berlin. But the rest of Germany is too conservative and the very idea of that coalition could bring conservatives together behind Merkel, including the CSU. It would give CDU voters second thoughts about switching to the anti-immigrant AfD party. Also important he says is that the immediacy of the refugee issue could fade as the German government better handles the refugee situation, including security, housing and integration. And as the agreement with Turkey is holding for controlling flow of refugees and turning them back. Also compared to SPD Merkel is still 8-10 points ahead in polls today says Nelles, so that there are still many Merkel supporters. In addition to what Nelles says, Strack in DW.com points out how Merkel's openness even showing emotions sometimes, about how the refugee crisis caught her and the German government unprepared, could help her in coming months. ...

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A new loan disbursement to Greece of $8.5 billion euros goes ahead in June 2017. Greece has to repay 7 billion euros in July 2017. The German parliament set as a condition for approval that the IMF also participate in the Greece bailout. Germany's finance minister Schauble stated that it was particularly important to increase Greece's competitiveness,  to help Greece "stand on its own  two feet" by the middle of 2018. The IMF under Christine Lagarde, and the eurozone group say that Greece has implemented the reforms requested. Greece's ruling party Syriza split over accepting the reform package, with its leader Tsipras finally accepting the need for the Third Bailout program following a referendum and parliamentary elections in 2015. The IMF under Lagarde has stepped in to support Greece in its effort to seek conditions that make the debt program workable for Greece.

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Margo Oge, headed the Office of Transportation and AIr Quality at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency from 1994-2012. Here she points out the contradiction in what automakers supported when the current fuel emission standards were set and today's effort by the Trump administration to loosen the standards. She also points to the contradiction between the trends in Europe, China, India, which are moving towards stricter standards and the U.S. reversing direction.  About one dozen states in addition to California have the power under the Clean Air Act to set their own standards. These states make up about one third of the U.S. market. What would result is a fracturing of the U.S. market. This would create problems for automakers as one expert recently pointed out in the NYT, that automakers should be careful what they wish for.  Automakers such as Ford say they support the current fuel emissions standards, yet call for flexibility. GM's CEO, Mary Barra, says she supports current standards. Toyota also says it supports the current emission standards. And diesel engines are now declining in Europe as a result of fuel emissions standards to preserve good air quality. History has shown the automakers have suffered badly from competition when emissions and fuel efficiency standards were lax. During the last decade the auto industry in Michigan faced decline as a result of poor management decisions and lack of foresight in pushing forward with new technologies in this field. The current recovery in the auto industry is a result of a reversal of the poor decisions made between 2000-2008, including fuel emissions and fuel efficiency, air quality decisions.    ...

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One of the problems facing the Republican People's Party, the CHP, is how to connect with religious voters. CHP is the party that is most closely associated with modern Turkey's founder, Kemal Ataturk. CHP was the main party in Turkey till the recent dominance of the AKP Party in elections. AKP drew support from the more religious and rural population in the parts of Turkey outside cities such as Ankara and Istanbul. CHP rarely identified itself with street protest and remained aloof from ordinary people making it hard for it to contest elections against the AKP - winning Ankara and Istanbul but losing the elections in the last decade. The AKP also allied itself with Turkey's Ottoman heritage and appealed to nationalist sentiment against a conservative aloof CHP leading to a split in Turkey between the secular urban and the religious minded more rural people. CHP also did not work with minorities such as the Kurds to build a broader coalition. This is changing with the march from Ankara to Istanbul led by CHP leader Kilicdaroglu. The march came after the justice system appeared to be allied with president Erdogan, and a 25 year sentence was given to one of Kilicdaroglu's deputies. Erdogan now appoints the judges in the judiciary and the crackdown on the opposition since the failed coup of 2016, has led to a sense that Turkey is now run as a one party state. An estimated 1.5 million Turks participated in the rally in Istanbul, according to DW, showing that the opposition is forming to the arbitrary rule since the emergency powers assumed by the president. For the last decade Erdogan and the AKP Party formed the government. What changed since 2016 is the new constitution that gives new powers to the president and the arbitrary rule since the crackdown on the opposition that intensified after 2014, and which has increased since the failed coup in 2016.  ...

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In the most recent Global Financial Stability Report out in Sept. 2011, the increase in the ratio of a country's outstanding credit to GDP is highlighted as a key warning light indicator for country economies. An increase in this ratio of over 5% signals a warning light according to the IMF. It tells us that borrowing is expanding at significantly faster rate than the growth of the economy. Using this indicator would have set a warning light up for the U.S. before the 2008 mortgage crisis, and a warning light well before the financial crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The outstanding credit to GDP ratio went up for China by 24 percentage points in 2009, with 4% percentage point increase in 2010. The ratio was up 30 percentage points in Hong Kong for 2010. The warning light is also up for Turkey and Vietnam. Capital inflows into countries that can be suddenly reversed, and overvalued currencies are a danger for emerging market countries and act as supplemental indicator warning lights. Brazil and South Africa have overvalued currencies. Turkey has high capital inflows. Only a small portion of this is foreign direct investment, the rest helps support a high amount of lending and credit provided by the banks. That a significant portion of this is in short term borrowing poses additional risks, as evident in the 1997 Asian financal crisis for S. Korea, Thailand and Malaysia....

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This look at China and leaders Mao, Chou-en-lai, Deng, Xi Jinping through the lens of the Hoover Institution series on authoritarianism "The Party's Interest Come First," by Hoover research fellow Turgian makes the same errors as is evident from expert at Oxford University/ Kennedy School Rana Shantasil Mitter of Indian descent. Which is to see China as an academic, not by immersing oneself in China of 1890- 1950 into the lives of China's millions of ordinary people. And how is one to immerse oneself into these lives. One can do this through the eyes of General Stilwell who loved and immersed himself in China like it could be said no other American of that period in Barbara Tuchman's well researched account of this China of 1890-1950.  One clue to this is also that Tuchman unlike Torgian or Mitter by a long shot is the only writer who met Mao in Beijing in the 1970's. In 1971 she met Mao and made observations on the lives of the people in "Notes from China- If Mao had met Roosevelt in 1945." As a result of Tuchman's account of Stilwell's personal experience of China since 1900's being lost to most Americans, there is no concept of what China had experienced with the gradual collapse of China's economy and politcal structures, its defense as China, like India, and Asia as a whole failed to experience the opening up to science and technology and modern ways of thought since 1600. The results were catastrophic for the Chinese people and for the people of India leading to economic destruction on a scale unknown in history and lives shortened and reduced by poverty.  ...

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Castilla-La Mancha includes the region around Toledo, Spain. It has an unemployment rate of 27% for the 1st quarter of 2012, up 5.4% from 2011, faster than the increase of 3.1% to 24.4% for Spain. Estimates from the University Carlos III in Madrid show economic growth contracting with GDP decline at 3.1% annual rate by the end of June 2012 for Castilla La Mancha. Part of the problem was the lack of credible accounts by the previous administration. Unpaid bills to suppliers were not included in the accounts for the region. When Maria Dolores de Cospedal of the Partido Popular became the president in May 2011, these unpaid bills were discovered and led to the doubling of the region's budget deficit to 7.3% for 2011. Cospedal sees the austerity cuts she is making as a long term approach to preserve education and healthcare. In an interview with Sara Schaeffer Munoz of the WSJ she says reducing debt is the first priority, so that interest rate premiums on borrowing can be brought down. Debt for Castilla was 17.2% of GDP in 2011, according to the Bank of Spain, it was 16.6% in the first quarter of 2012, among the highest of Spain's regions Ms. Cospedal says she wants growth too, but insists that Spain cannot get growth as long as it is sinking in debt. Moody's Investors Service says Ms. Cospedal is strict in executing the budget- a new second hospital slated to be built for 150 million euros in Cuenca with population 56,000 was cancelled and other cuts are proceeding- and Moody's did not include Castilla in the downgrades of 7 Spanish regions in June 2012. ...

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In an effort to calm unsettled global financial markets ECB president Mario Draghi said in a speech on July 26, 2012: "Within our mandate, the ECB is willing to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro and, believe me, it will be enough." Yields on Spain's government bonds reached 7.5% as investors shunned Spanish bonds fearing the need for a government bailout.