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Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Stamouli and Walker of WSJ describe the last days of negotiations in June before Greece pulled out its negotiating team, and German chancellor Merkel decided to call off the bailout of Greece. The impasse was over pension cuts and vaue added taxes, yet the negotiations were still going over details when Tsipras pulled out Greece's negotiating team with the surprise announcement of a referendum on July 5, 2015. By saying the Syriza party would call for a "no" vote Tsipras alienated public opinion in Germany. Chancellor Merkel seeing the shift in domestic opinion favoring Greece's exit from the euro during the tense months of negotiations with the Syriza government and acrimonious charges, moved to call off a continued EU bailout of Greece.
Washington Post Original article ›
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Anne Applebaum of the Washington Post points out that after the faltering campaign of Republican Party nominee Fillon, the only serious candidates remaining in the presidential election in France are Marie LePen of the National Front, and the former Economy minister in the Hollande government, Emmanuel Macron. Macron is now the only person with enough popularity to win over LePen's nationalist movement. Macron launched his En Marche movement in 2016 and his strategy is to bring together the centre right and the centre left moderate voters, and voters who favor remaining in the European Union. Older voters in France unlike that in the U.S. and the UK are favoring candidates other than LePen because they fear the impact on the French economy and their pensions from leaving the European Union. LePen favors holding a referendum to decide whether France should remain in the EU. Macron takes an opposite view fully supporting France's role in the European Union. He has not advocated the huge cuts that Fillon has for job cuts in the public sector, and is able to draw moderate centre left voters to his side. A look at the French presidential election in another piece in the Economist magazine shows that further out one goes from major cities in France there is a surge in the support for the National Front. Moderate parties other than the National Front draw support in most of the major cities and urban areas. Another similarity with the UK and U.S> is that more educated voters support moderate parties other than the National Front. As polls have been proven wrong in other elections it is difficult to know what is likely to happen in this election. Unemployment is high in France at 10% with little change since the election of the Socialist Hollande government. Other issues such as terrorism have unsettled French voters, making this election difficult to predict. Voter dissatisfaction is especially high among younger voters who face a high unemployment rate and stagnant economy. Neither candidate Macron or LePen offers a way out of the low economic growth and lack of new jobs. A lot depends on whether French voters are willing to take the risks of a LePen administration and the further uncertainty from a referendum for leaving the EU which cannot enhance the economic prospects of France.     ...
New York Times Original article ›
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About $229 billion, three fourth of Greece's debt, is now held by the European Central Bank, the IMF and the European Commission. This is taxpayer money and the governments are making sure that they get back bailout loans in the form of interest payments. About two thirds of the $177 billion given to Greece as bailout loans since May 2010 actually came back to the ECB, IMF, and the EC, in the form of interest. The ECB is keen on recovering taxpayer money. The money route has been setup with an escrow account in Greece for bailout loans so that interest payments get paid, and this money cannot be used for any other purpose. Banking experts say this is a practice in risk management, and with Greece's poor record in finances the controls have been put in place to recover money the ECB invested in Greek bonds in an effort to calm nervous financial markets and now gets about 10% in annual interest payment. Under earlier debt restructuring for private creditors to Greece a haircut of over 50% on Greek bonds was taken, with the ECB insisting on receiving full payment. If Greece were to repudiate the loans under a new elected government losses would have to be taken by the ECB, IMF, and EC, and by private creditors. The ECB has Greek bonds in the range of $44 billion to $69 billion, and the European Financial Stability Facility $88 billion, by some estimates. Greece's exit from the euro would result in losses on these bonds .for the ECB and the EFSF, ultimately European taxpayers. It would also make the new bonds to private creditors under the restructuring of little value which is why European banks would not favor that outcome. Greece's tax receipts at some point, possibly 2013, would exceed basic operating expenses of the government, at which point a future Greek government might decide to exit the euro and stop interest payments on debt in its best interest....
New York Times Original article ›
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Douthat of the NYT describes the criticism of the U.S. and Canada for taking so few refugees from Syria, and responds by saying chancellor Merkel may have taken on greater challenges of assimilation of a new wave of Arab migrants than Germany can handle.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Faces of migrants to Germany as Germany sees the migrants as what German chancellor Merkel calls- "A huge national challenge, not only for days or months, but for a long period of time." German civil society shows openness, and German educational institutions offer support. About 800,000 refugees will be accepted in Germany in 2015, says Merkel. An adult migrant is given 143 euros a month for pocket money and 216 euros for basic needs, medical costs are covered. Children are taken care of or attend school while their parents applications are reviewed. Registered migrants are given housing and food. The system works like nowhere else in the world, as most migrants focus on getting to Germany. The condition of the migrants is desperate- one child had not eaten for 4 days. And local doctors examine migrants, with some referred to local hospitals.
Washington Post Original article ›
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Italy's prime minister, Mario Monti, a senior EU official before becoming prime minister, has the credibility and credentials to bring the French and German sides together on a new plan forward for the European Union, says Steven Pearlstein of the Washington Post. In this report from Rome, where leaders of Italy, Spain, France and Germany are meeting to discuss solutions Pearlstein describes the solutions Monti is putting forward. The European Investment Fund would be built up so that it has funding of about $175 billion or 1% of Europe's GDP to finance truly productivity and growth enhancing projects of innovative small and medium sized business in transportation, energy, education and environmental sectors. These companies have suffered shortages of capital as banks pulled bank from lending. It is the inadequate private investment that is causing the greatest damage in this crisis and $175 billion is at the low end of the amount needed in this crisis. Other steps Monti is pushing forward- for immediate steps to tackle the crisis deposit insurance to prevent a run on banks is essential for European banks. This would come with a eurozone regulatory authority that would have the powers to regulate European banks. The European Financial Stability Facility would be the "sovereign buyer of last resort," under Monti's proposal. Eurobonds come up as a key part of the solution. This is not because German and French taxpayers would be required to finance economies of Spain and Italy. As was shown by the U.S. Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) a well designed program could pay for itself. This would include the EU financial authority taking up stakes in the banks getting help and closing banks that are insolvent. The key point is that if properly executed and executed in a timely and appropriate way this does not have to cost French and German taxpayers- the important thing being to support the eurozone economies before the situation deteriorates. Borrowing at 6% for Spain and Italy will only put the situation out of control as deficits rise rapidly. The concessions for tighter regulation of European banking systems, reducing risk in banking, setting up adequate reserves, closing poorly run banks, and ceding powers to a European Financial Authority that can make the final decisions, are the steps that would have to go with these arrangements. Sound financial management requires that the kind of banking risks taken in the speculative bubbles in Spain, the lack of transparency and credibility in banking estimates of bad loans in the system, and the glossing over the problems at Bankia, would have to be addressed in solutions through regulation by a credible European Financial Authority to convince skeptical German public opinion that financial accounts are conducted in a proper manner....

Greek Tragedy

New York Times Original article ›
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Ariana Huffington of the Huffington Post recalls her days growing up in Athens. She says from her own personal experience that the children should not be penalized for the mistakes of their parents, that the next generation should not have to live desperate lives for the next decade under ECB policies that leave no room for growth. She adds her voice to voices in France, Spain, and other countries in the eurozone about the impact of current EU and ECB policies on Europe, and says exiting the eurozone is a difficult option, but like the Argentine example offers more hope for growth for the young generation in Greece.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, Greece's second largest party, is interviewed by WSJ's Bret Stephens. Tsipras describes the problems inside Greece. He describes the bribery in healthcare, tax evasion, burden of taxes on the middle class and honest citizens, a large and inefficient bureaucracy. In its current state Greece would build up debt and deficits all over again if the debts were forgiven tomorrow, says Tsipras. He is for Greece remaining in the eurozone. Tsipras understands the problems Germans have with putting money into Greece with the current state of economic management and lack of conscience of its elite, and why they see this as not fair. He suggests as a model for solving the Greece debt crisis, the London Conference of 1953 forgiving half of Germany's debts and putting the rest on a 30 year scheduled repayment. This would have to come with results in cutting bureaucracy, reducing corruption, and efficient tax collection for Greece democracy to work.
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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The relationship from college years at Amherst College in the U.S. of Greek political leaders Antonis Samaras and George Papandreou. The efforts to setup a national unity government that failed. The increasing support for the opposition New Democracy Party led by Samaras- with 16% unemployment- and the prospect of new elections. Samaras supports spending cuts. He also favors tax cuts, and a flat tax rate of 15% on business. Greece has a long history of tax evasion and distrust of central authority going back to centuries of Turkish rule. Samaras believes that the lower tax rate of 15% would help change the Greek cultural trait of evading taxes becaue it would be on the honor of people to pay such a basic tax. EU leaders are skeptical that lower taxes are the right policy to reduce the deficit. This adds to the political uncertainty as the new government would have to implement the measures agreed to between the current Greek government and the EU leaders. A similiar situation existed in Portugal but the recent elections there, participation of the opposition party in talks, and the newly elected government conducting its own negotiations, has removed that element of uncertainty which exists in Greece. ...
New York Times Original article ›
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Anger in Greece at the austerity measures was evident in the results of the April 2012 elections. The two major parties polled even less than the low poll numbers that they expected. The Socialist Pasok party of former premier Papandreou received only 13% of the vote and not the 15-18% expected, the New Democracy party of Antonio Samaras received only 18.8% and not the 25% expected. As a result the two main parties that have ruled Greece received less than one third of the vote combined. The second largest party after New Democracy is now the Coalition of the Radical Left or Syriza, which received 16.78% of the vote. It is led by young Alexis Tsipras, 38, who has said the bailout treaties witht the EU and the IMF were "not salvation, but a tragedy." Syriza opposes the austerity measures and prefers to exit the eurozone. A extremist far right anti-immigrant party New Dawn received 7% of the vote showing the desperate situation. New Democracy's Samaras tried hard but failed to form a government, and under the Greek constitution each party gets a few days to form a government. The outcome is likely to be new elections in June 2012 and a caretaker government appointed by the president....
Washington Post Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Prime minister Mario Monti responded with humor to the remark of former prime minister Berlusconi before the June 2012 summit of European leaders that he could unplug the Monti government, by saying that his government was not a home appliance. In August Monti's long intervew with the Wall Street Journal is published in which he says the Italian bond spreads with German bonds would be 1200 or something if Berlusconi was still running the government. Angelinia Alfano, of Berlusconi's party, the People of Freedom party, calls this "nonsensical" and the parliamentary whip calls this a "stupid provocation." WSJ's Alessandra Galloni intervewed the Italian premier. Monti's office says he called Berlusconi saying he regretted the "banal and abstract extrapolation of a trend in spread values, which was included in a wide ranging interview with the WSJ, was taken as a political consideration, which was not at all the intention."
New York Times Original article ›
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Talks on June 28-29 in Rome between President Francois Hollande of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. They will be joined by the Italian and Spanish prime ministers, Mario Monti and Mariano Rajoy. Hollande has invited the opposition Social Democrats in Germany for talks in Paris to win support for his approach to the eurozone crisis. The growth initiative proposed by Hollande is fairly modest and Merkel has expressed her support for this. The tougher issues revolve around some acceptable form of mutualizing of eurozone debt to tackle a loss of confidence in financial markets without a surrender of sovereignty by France and other eurozone nations- a particularly sensitive issue in France. More Europe, would mean more German influence in decisionmaking. Germany rejects eurobonds and direct aid to banks from the ECB. Centralized banking supervision and close regulation by a new European regulatory authority would be needed as part of a new eurozone financial architecture. The immediate issues are of some form of deposit insurance for the eurozone banking system so that there is no run on the banks in Spain and other countries....
New York Times Original article ›
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Efforts being made to convince the Spanish government of Mariano Rajoy to accept IMF aid to recapitalize its banks. The IMF released information showing Spanish banks would need to raise at least 37 billion euros or $46 billion to prevent a worsening of the banking crisis. The report was released before the meeting of EU finance ministers on June 9-10 to persuade the Spanish government to accept IMF aid. The eurozone bailout fund was given powers in 2011 to make loans to governments for the purpose of recapitalizing banks, with conditions and terms set for the financial sector not for the government's spending plans. According to people aware of the discussions taking place in the European Commission and the IMF, one option is to have the European Banking Authority and not the IMF oversee the program. This avoids the usual stigma of accepting aid coming from the IMF with strict conditions attached including restrictions on the government's fiscal plans.
New York Times Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
A statement by German Finance Minister Schauble that Germany would be able to accept inflation of between 2 and 3% showed the new flexibility of the German position after the election of Hollande in France. Schauble said on April 10, 2012, Germany would find inflation "in the corridor between 2 and 3%" acceptable. The ECB's target is 2%. Earlier the Bundesbank in statements to the German parliament indicated that higher inflation rate in Germany was acceptable if the overall eurozone rate remained near target. This would give other eurozone countries an opportunity to improve competitiveness. Schauble also indicated willingness to accept higher wages in Germany because of years of wage concessions by workers in Germany. France's major parties, unions and industry are in agreement on a plan for reducing wages to avoid layoffs. This gives the normal process of adjustments in free markets a chance to function to restore competitiveness and balance. It also addresses the concerns of workers in Germany who would benefit after a decade of wage concessions, and improve consumption in Germany, as demand for Germany's exports adjusts to a slowdown in the global economy....
Washington Post Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
A report released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) shows growing income inequality in 34 OECD countries. OECD Secretary General, Angel Gurria says: "The social contract is starting to unravel in many countries. This study dispels the assumptions that the benefits of economic growth will automatically trickle down to the disadvantaged and that the greater inequality fosters greater social mobility. Without a comprehensive strategy for inclusive growth, income inequality will continue to rise." Countries with the largest ratios between incomes at the top and the bottom, are the United States, Turkey and Israel, roughly 14 to 1. Germany, Denmark and Sweden have ratios of 6 to 1, with their ratios up from the 1980's. Gaps in Chile and Mexico are at 25 to 1. The study covers the period from 1980 to 2008. Overall inequality went up by 25% in the U.S. from 1980. In 2008 the top ten percent in the U.S. earned $114,000, 15 times than incomes for the bottom 10%. The top 1% of Americans saw incomes go up from 1980 to 2008, increasing from 8 percent to 18 percent. The richest 1% having $1.3 million in after tax income, and the lowest 20% making $17,700. The trends have accentuated an increase at the highest end- the top 1% and top 10% of the people- and a sharp decrease for the bottom 20%, which can be grasped from the $17,700 and the $1.3 million, both at extreme ends. The study attributes the rise in inequality to a growing gap in wages for highly skilled workers as technology advances, a surge in foreign direct investment and a looser regulatory regime that reduces employee protections leading to wage premiums for financial jobs and smaller incomes for workers at the bottom. Income groups and professions and sectors that had the greatest influence in government were able during this period to get the greatest protection for incomes, and able also to maximize their incomes. Incomes in the financial sector increased dramatically in the last decade, as a result of deregulation leading to higher risk and speculative activities in the financial sector, leading to the financial crisis of 2008-2009. Financial crises further depress incomes at the lower end. Similiar income inequality trends can be seen for India and China. China has a Ginni coefficient of 0.5 according to researchers at Beijing Normal University, up from 0.3 three decades ago- a Ginni Coefficient above 0.4 is considered destabilizing. Another factor that played a part in these countries is corruption and lobbying by special interests for favored treatment of sectors or groups. Austerity measures taken in Europe and in the U.S. are likely to widen income gaps by depressing the lower end income groups, creating social unrest, especially in the absence of efforts to stimulate growth....
WSJ Original article ›
WSJ Original article ›
New York Times Original article ›
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Francois Hollande, Socialist candidate for president in France, has led the Socialist party for many years. He started his career as a junior politician in the Mitterand government, and regards Mitterand his mentor. Another mentor is Jacques Delours, who was president of the European Commission. He has many years of training, and has persevered thorughout with a certain sense of humility in the midst of colleagues and politicians in France with larger egos. That inner strength and courage has emerged in the recent campaign appearances and the final debate with Sarkozy in April 2012. He has shown this in the recent campaign by not overstating expectations as he looks at the long term, and at the same time not understating when courage demanded a stronger statement. He has taken timely and effective positions in the current debate of austerity vs growth, or growth coupled with restraint in fiscal spending vs austerity, that is raging in Europe. He was quick to call the situation in Greece, a failure of governance in Europe, as well as a failure of governance in Greece. With the new voices of Premier Monti in Italy and ECB president Draghi from Italy, pushing for growth coupled with fiscal responsibility, a president Hollande in France, would add another voice to European aspirations for growth in the debate with Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats in Germany. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
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Mario Monti, Italy's prime minister, tells Alessandra Galloni of the WSJ, "Germany will never let France go." French economist Sorman says Americans do not realize that the EU and the Euro were created for political, not economic reasons, and the idea was to bring peace to Europe and especially between France and Germany. He sees the EU countries staying through this crisis together, and France emerging more competitive from this experience.
BusinessWeek Original article ›
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MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....
New York Times Original article ›
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Nikos Voutsis, Greece's interior minister, says Greece lacks the money to make debt repayments of 1.6 billion euros to the IMF in June 2015. A proposal by the Left Platform, a faction within Syriza party led by energy minister Lafazanis, which has support of 30 of the 149 Syriza representatives in the Greek parliament, calls for not making debt repayments and looking for an alternate plan. It was defeated by the central committee of the Syriza party on May 24, 2015, with the vote 95 to 75 showing intense opposition within Syriza. Instead Syriza voted for a proposal to call for mutually beneficial negotiations and a deal that would preserve its core goals- a low target for the primary budget surplus, avoid more cuts to pensions, and restructuring Greece's debt to include an investment plan for economic recovery. Both sides in the negotiations, the EU/IMF and Syriza government in Greece, reached an impasse as the negotiating tactics of finance minister Varoufakis led to German finance minister Schauble also taking a tougher stance, saying he could not rule out Greece defaulting on its debt. ...
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
Wall Street Journal Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The canonization of Pope John XXIII from northern Italy and Pope John Paul from Poland, who played an important role in their respective times for the Catholic Church's development, and acting as a guiding force for people after the Second World War and the fall of communism in Eastern Europe.

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