LyrArc Article Gist
With small margins of 5-10% many Chinese producers in Shenzen see the loss of the American market after the American tariffs of 20%. US president DJT put a10% tariff on all products imported from China on Feb 4, 2025 Executive Order. Another Order on March 4 amended this for an additional 10% to total 20% in March 2025. The local Chinese market where consumption is low cannot make up for the American market. The market in Russia is smaller with its population of 145 million and smaller consumption level. The markets in South East Asia are highly fragmented, and Brazil's economy is weak. India has a large trade imbalance already and is unlikely to let this get worse. Russia is imposing some restrictions on imports to not get flooded with cheap Chinese imports that drive local makers out of business.

LyrArc Article Gist
The team of 5 engineers decided they would produce the first Vande Bharat train in 18 months- Project 18. The Indian Express talks to the team of original engineers who were on Project 18.  They are all part of Chennai Integral Coach Factory, setup with Swiss collaboration in 1955. By 2019 the first train was operational at speeds of 180 km per hour, semi-high speed and setting the transition to high speed trains developed entirely within India. Sudanshu Mani, General Manager of ICF, headed this effort and set the target of 18 months. He says China used to import all its trains and one day just decided to make its own- he asked himself the same question, why don't we make our own? Mani was in Berlin for 3 years on an earlier collaboration for train technology in the 1980's. By the 1990's this technology was 20 years old he says. That's how long it took to get anything done in those days, by the time it got started the technology would be obsolete. By 2018 just 2 years before retirement Sudanshu set up the Project 18 team convinced that this was the only way to get it done- to beat the odds. Devi Prasad Dash heads electrical engineering. Srinivas heads mechanical engineering. Pradhan is Chief Design Engineer. They did everything from scratch. There are 5000 others who worked on the project. Dash says it was like T20 cricket, just that they decided to do it in 18 overs. Ever wonder why the train is all white and with blue stripe? Subranshu who was chief mechanical engineer at the time says they tried other colors. Manish Pradhan says they decided on white after one thought that Indian trains are never white because we had that belief that anything white would get dirty faster. That is when we decided to make it all white and it will not look dirty, he says. Sudanshu Mani says he would close his eyes and he would see always the old Indian trains that one would see from the 1960's from Ahmedabad to Rameswaram, and onto Colombo after the ferry. At that time Colombo had Canadian coaches and locomotives under a Canadian aid plan from Talaimannar to Colombo which were like American trains, looked miles into the future.The same thing must have happened to Chinese engineers because Chinese premier Chou-en-lai visited the ICF in Chennai in the 1950's and wrote that Chinese engineers could learn about the new Swiss technologies from ICF Chennai. That is when the Swiss were building their own trains with European technology of that time. China and India, and Japan had no idea about the high speed trains that were in the future. This is how technology advances. This is how people build better lives and how the aspirations and hopes of younger generations become a reality. Somewhere in the dim light of the past there is a Chinese engineer with the undaunted courage, concentration and determination to "Just Do It," and before that a Japanese engineer, and before that a Swiss engineer designing a train for the Swiss Alps, a Canadian or American engineer designing newer trains for the Prairies all the way to British Columbia and California. All dreaming Big and executing Well, with the resources of each country there to aid them each step of the way. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The continued debate about the relevance of a G-8, the need for more countries. OBama sees the G-20 as the really important meeting, and the G-8 meetings as a smaller less significant meeting between the G20 meeting in London and the next one in Pittsburgh. This however leaves the other leaders outside of the G-8 meeting on the sidelines at G-8 meetings, which does not work very well. In this meeting in Italy, Turkey and Egypt were also present, as were leaders from Africa, and from Australia.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Agriculture Department cuts its estimate of corn crop yield per acre in the U.S. by 15.5%, as a result of the severe drought in 2012. Agriculture Secretary Vilsack, says the situation for farmers is better this time than during the last drought in 1988. Now 85% of farmers have crop insurance compared to 25% in 1988. The Agriculture Department estimate is for a 3-4% increase in prices in 2013. Capital Economics says the impact on GDP in the U.S. will be about 0.1%. Because 40% of the corn crop goes into ethanol production there is renewed debate about the 2005/2007 Renewable Fuel Standard, which requires 13.2 billion gallons of corn based biofuel be made in 2012. Worldwide the bad weather conditions in Brazil, India and Russia are worsening the outlook for food supplies. The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization says global food prices increased by 6% in July 2012, with corn prices up 23%.

LyrArc Article Gist
How the energy business sale of gas turbines to provide electricity in the middle east is boosting GE's energy business worldwide, increasing sales to over $20 billion in 2007, at the last peak in 2002 sales reached $22.5 billion for GE's energy business. Couple of things to note. GE's revenue is growing at about 20% a year in the middle east. Its sales in the middle east now exceed China's with $8 billion in Middle East for 2007 vs. 6 billion in China. By 2010 sales from China India Brazil and Middle East will total $50 billion compared to 30 billion today. thst is an increase of 67% over 3 years. Power is a big chunk of this in addition there are aircraft engines and health care equipment. See the other article on middle east growth July 19, 2007 WSJ. About half of the population of 300 million in the middle east is under 20 years of age. Also note the last runup in GE's stock price was from its surging energy business in the 1990's.

LyrArc Article Gist
India's inflation rate declined to 4.4% in Nov. 2014 and 5% in Dec. 2014. Price pressures are moderating throughout the economy. With lower oil prices in 2015 and long term trend for lower prices the outlook has improved for controlling inflation. The central bank governor Rajan cut rates by one quarter of a percentage point in Jan. 2015 and indicated further rate cuts are ahead to boost economic growth. The financial markets reflect a 1% decline in interest rates and the stock markets were up 2% in Jan. 2015

LyrArc Article Gist
The President of the American Chamber of Commerce, Harley Seyedin, says that the days when migrant workers did not know their rights, labor laws were not enforced, and factory owners could keep wages low, are gone. With 787 million mobile phone users and 384 million Internet users- which includes migrant workers who can now get the news about the latest developments, send messages, video, and access the internet. For its part the government made serious effort to create awareness about new labor laws of 2008 through the state run media outlets. And workers have greater awareness and understanding of their rights for safe working conditions and double overtime pay, as well as other rights guaranteed in China's new labor laws. And something else is happening that connects the universities with workers. The expansion of the number of students at Chinese universities has brought more people from rural areas into the universities. This has created sympathy and support for migrant workers at the universities. Nine sociologists at Peking and Tsinghua universities signed an open letter calling national and local governments to implement actions that let migrant workers integrate into the city environment and share in the country's progress that they are creating. The government's security system has prevented the creation of a worker's movement in the past. But this time the government may be thinking of the need to develop China's domestic market, as the reliability of markets in the USA and European countries is uncertain as economic conditions change. For this to happen China's workers need higher wages to buy the goods China produces. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The NYT editorial talks about growing inequality and the falling back of both the people below the poverty line defined as $22,205 for afamily of four, and the falling back of the middle class. According to the Census Bureau median household income fell in 2008 to $50,300 from 52,200 in 2007. Economists Piketty and Saez found that from 2002 to 2007 the top 1% of households- those making ,ore than $400,000 a yea- received two thirds of the USA's total income gains, largest sine the 1920's.

LyrArc Article Gist
Tyler Cowan says slower growth in India is a troubling sign in 2012, and as significant if not more than the eurozone crisis. A less mentioned and major problem is the low productivity in agriculture, and he points to Japan, Taiwan, and S. Korea where major increases in agricultural productivity preceded successful industrialization. With growing population and continued growth India will be one of the largest economies in the world. The other major problem is shortages of energy supplies and the inability of state owned company, Coal India, to upgrade technology and increase output.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.  The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks. China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Decline in capital investment in 2016-2017 expected at Lukoil and Rosneft as the Russian government postponed a reduction in taxes on oil exports for 2016. Russia is dependent on oil exports for a third of its national output, and about half of its budget depends on oil revenues, a major weakness, but this is being managed carefully till oil prices recover. Russian officials say the $50 a barrel assumption for oil revenues in 2016 in the budget is optimistic. Yet Russian output decline is expected to be limited to about 3% a year from 5% for Lukoil in future years from decline in investment, because of drilling new wells and use of horizontal drilling technology on older fields. In 2015 oil output increased modestly to 10.73 barrels a day from 10.58 barrels a day in 2014. Russia's oil industry benefits from a tax system that favors the industry. The export duty on oil and the mineral extraction tax are based on price. A declining ruble which has gone from 35 to the dollar before its invasion of Ukraine in 2014 to 86 to the dollar in Jan 2016, has a favorable impact. This actually helps the industry because workers and oil equipment suppliers in Russia are paid in rubles, and oil revenues are earned in dollars. As a result new technologies such as horizontal drilling now make up one third of oil supplies from 11% in 2010. Chinese suppliers also provide new technology drilling equipment, as China is not part of the sanctions. Gazprom Neft's CEO Dyukov says it can make a profit at oil price of $15 a barrel. Because of the tax system after tax revenues are stable at the oil companies in Russia, even as government tax revenue declines. All this points to resilience in the short run for the Russian oil industry. The decline in the value of the ruble is seen as an opportunity to shift away from an overdependence on imports during the period of high oil prices. Alexei Kudrin, former Russsian finance minister, sees growth returning for the Russian economy in 2017. This may actually be good news for the struggling economies of U.S., Europe, India, China, and other countries which would be boosted by low oil prices sustained over a longer period- something made possible by competition between big oil producing countries Russia, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Iran, and the profitability of oil production at prices below $30 to $20 a barrel....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Europeans led by France and Germany demand stricter regulation and a financial regulatory system that oversees the entire financial system, and oversees all the larger countries. The US in contrast wants to see a lighter regulatory system, and lighter regulation of parts of the financial system like hedge funds. For the USA where the crisis originated, the emphasis is on larger stimulus spending. For the Europeans which have a larger safety net that they would like to see considered as part of their stimulus- and their social arrangement such as reduced hours in Germany to avoid layoffs, and the presence of a large public sector in France that is about 52% of GDP- the situation as they see it does not require breaking the EU's committment to control large deficits. The cultural and historical roots are also different. Germany was hit by hyperinflation in the period between the two wars, and there is thought there that this helped the rise of demagogic leaders and the collapse of democracy there. At that time the issue was war reparations that Germany found difficult to absorb in an economy devastated by the first war, which strained German finances. France and Germany also have no foreclosure crisis, and car sales and consumer spending are not in the deep decline that is seen in the USA. In fact car sales have increased in the two countries with the refunds for scrapping old vehicles, with no such plan in place in the USA. Making there is a credible position on the European side. Germany does see itself hit by the collapse in international trade. Germany and France face the prospect of helping their banking systems deal with the large bad loan situation facing them in Eastern Europe. At the same time Germany and France want to save some firepower for coming to the aid of key parts of the European community like Spain, Greece, and Ireland, which are facing a worsening crisis. In short both sides have credible positions, and some form of accomodation as events unfold may be a better desired outcome than some unified outcome. And little has been said of the position of the other countries in the G20, the emerging countries like Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, Argentina and others, and the position of the World Bank speaking for the poorest countries. These countries may favor stronger stimulus, and would favor the stricter regulation and supervision of global financial systems favored by the Europeans. This is because they may rightly feel that the messups in the global financial system have stolen their chance, at just the point where they were turning the corner in their efforts at bringing better standards of living to their peoples....

LyrArc Article Gist
The lower oil prices in 2015 helps lower the current account deficit, which reached 7.9% in 2013, to 5% projected for 2015. Inflation is projected at 6.8%. GDP growth of 3.5% is expected for 2015. Turkey imports oil amounting to about 6% of GDP making for a large impact. Weakness is in the area of manufacturing, as Turkey's high tech exports are only 2% of manufactured exports, according to the Economist. About 1% of Turkish students have advanced computer skills. With problems in Brazil and Russia, money flowing into emerging markets is giving Turkey a second look after the emerging markets crisis in early 2014, when the lira slumped and interest rates had to be increased. The economy is recovering in 2015 from that situation. Two major beneficiaries of lower oil prices in emerging markets are India and Turkey in 2015, as both economies struggled with a large oil import bill.

LyrArc Article Gist
In 2018 China, India, and America are Africa's largest trading partners. India is building 18 new embassies in African countries. Greater openness to trade and investment is leading to GDP growth in Africa, 40% higher than in 2000, which is still low by comparison with Asian countries. The Economist says African countries can benefit by drawing investment from all sides and all countries, so that Africa benefits the most. Chinese investment, and Indian investment can happen side by side with investment from America, Britain and France.

LyrArc Article Gist
UN programs to reduce food storage losses in Pakistan by using metal storage containers instead of jute bags and mud silos protect grain from insects, rats and water. This has cut losses in storage of grains by upto 70%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. Agriculture Department lowered its forecast of corn yield per acre from 166 busherls per acre to 123.4 after a severe drought in the U.S. The projected corn harvest is expected to come in at 10.8 billion bushels, 13% smaller than the 12.4 billion bushels in 2011. The USDA forecast for corn price in August 2012 was raised at the upper end to $8.90 per bushel, up 39% from a month ago.

LyrArc Article Gist
Narendra Modi is now the choice of the BJP party in India to lead it against the ruling Congress party of Sonia and Rahul Gandhi. The corruption in government and the slowing growth have improved the chances of Modi, the chief minister of Gujarat state in northwestern India, near Mumbai. Modi has done well in Gujarat state in a number of areas- from foreign investment in manufacturing, infrastructure development, and better governance. His plan is to replicate this at the national level. His slogan is minimum government and maximum governance.

LyrArc Article Gist
An assessment of progress in free trade and generating jobs in N. America under the NAFTA agreement between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The agreement was signed under President Clinton in 1994. NAFTA removed existing tariffs on over half of the exports from Mexico to the U.S. and phased out remaining tariffs between the U.S., Canada and Mexico. The U.S. had two way trade of $918 billion with Canada and Mexico in 2010, according to the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative. Canada is the U.S.'s top trading partner, with $462 billion in trade through Sept. 2012, and U.S. trade with Mexico- expected to overtake China- is at $369 billion in the same 9 month period of 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
In response to bellicose speeches by Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum at the American Israel Public Affairs Committee conference on March 6, 2012, President Obama stated at a press conference: "This is not a game..The one thing we have not done is we have not launched a war.. If some of these folks think we should launch a war, let them say so, and explain to the American people." The U.S. president, advisors and intelligence officials believe that Iran has yet to acquire a nuclear weapon, that there is time for sanctions to work and make the Iranian government give up any weapons programs it is working on. Their view as stated by the U.S. President is that this time cannot be measured in two days or two months. Recent elections in Iran show divisions in the government between the Ayatollah Khamanei and premier Ahmadinejad, with the elections favoring candidates supporting Khamanei. There is also the dynamic of changing relations in the Middle East- between Iran and other countries such as Iraq, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, India- which have strong ties to the U.S., and Iran's relations with China and other countries which have close economic ties to the U.S. In addition in a country with a demographic skewed heavily towards younger people and a third of the people under 15, the democracy protests in 2011 about a flawed election in 2009 are supported largely by university and college students. That election may actually have been stolen by Ahmadinejad from Mr. Moussavi, who in an election eve television debate accused Ahmadinejad of "adventurism, illusionism, exhibitionism, extremism, and superficiality," (Nazila Fathi, NYT 6/4/2009). These factors are likely to be behind the Obama administration's sense of a "window of opportunity," to use Mr. Obama's words. Recent polls by the University of Maryland's Prof. Telhami show only 19% of Israelis favored a military strike without U.S. backing in Feb. 2012, and Israeli public opinion experts see Obama's position as reflecting a sound judgement. Research by Citigroup shows that at a price for Brent crude of $120 with an escalation in Iran, it would take 9% of the world's GDP to support the higher energy costs, hitting Europe especially hard (Liam Denning, WSJ 1/6/2012)....

LyrArc Article Gist
Local investment companies were allowed to borrow beyond their limits after the financial crisis of 2008. There are about 8000 local investment companies (LIC's) and they were used during 2008-2010 to get funds quickly to projects. The LIC's borrowed for local governments, and borrowed extensively to build roads, railroads, power plants, and other infrastructure and buildings. Northwestern University Professor Shih has followed this carefully, and estimates LIC debt owed to banks at $1.68 trillion, or 34% of China's GDP. Some of the banks have collateral in land, but many banks are relying on the ability of the local governments to pay back the loans. And some of this is in money losing projects.

LyrArc Article Gist
IMF is taking on a new role as the staff of the G-20 nations. As the G-20 has no staff, no headquarters, no offices, the IMF is being asked to tke on this role.