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South Africa Sees Fresh Start for Economy, With the Same Challenges
Keywords: South Africa Economy, ,
This report by Goodman in the NYT shows that the ANC has lost most of the moral authority it had under Mandela. After 9 years under president Zuma, and after the term of his predecessor Mr. Mbeki from 1999-2008, South Africa remains stuck with stagnant economy, and about two thirds of young people in the townships being jobless. The challenge is how to change the economy to where growth is generated and benefits go to a broader section of the population. Problems the new president Ramaphosa faces are how to change the protections given to conglomerates that dominated the economy under Apatheid, and the patronage network that evolved with the ANC in the post Apartheid era.
Growth performance of the South African economy is dismal. According to the World Bank the South African economy in 2016 was about the size of the economy in 2009. Many warnings about the economy and the operation of the state run electric utility appeared during Mr. Zuma's presidency, including one by former president De Klerk. Growth in 2018 is expected to be only about 1.1%. The economic gains by the largely black population have suffered with lack of growth and mismanagement of the economy. Official unemployment is at 27%, with about two thirds of the young people in the townships being jobless.
South Africa's economy in 2014-2017
12/14/2014
Deteriorating prospects for foreign investment in South Africa for 2015. Economic growth is forecast by the IMF to remain below 2.5% for years till the power situation is tackled. Growth is estimated in 2014 at a mere 1.4%, not enough to reduce high unemployment of over 25%. Lower commodity prices for mining exports, and a decline in the value of the rand reduce any benefit from lower oil prices. The government of president Zuma is seen as ineffective in tackling power shortages, and making changes at electricity company Eskom which suffers from cash shortages.
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Growth forecast shows growth slowing to 2.5%, not enough to make a dent in unemployment over 25%. A drop in the value of the Rand, lower mining commodity prices for exports, reduces any benefits from lower oil prices in 2014-2015.
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