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Trump’s Harder Line on Mexico Casts Shadow on Long-Term Growth Picture

WSJ Original article ›
LyrArc Article Gist
The campaign rhetoric for renegotiating NAFTA and building a wall at the border has had a sharply negative effect on growth in Mexico. Growth slowed in 2016 and is expected to be close to zero in 2017 with declining foreign investment in the economy. The uncertainty is leading to sharp decline in foreign direct investment of 24% in the first 9 months of 2016, according to the Bank of Mexico. Further declines can be expected in 2017. The decline in the value of the peso of 16% since May 2016 has led to 6 interest rate increases in the past year. Inflation on annual basis was at 4.72% in Jan. 2017 and is rising. As Mexico depends on exports for one third of its output growth, and 80% is sent to the U.S., there is a need to diversify with trade agreements made with the European Union and other countries. Mexicans now question the value of NAFTA trade agreement as average growth of 2.6 since NAFTA was signed is below the 4.6% in the 2 decades prior to that. And poverty level is the same with about 60% of people in the underground economy. In addition crime, drug trade, a weak education system, weak rule of law, political corruption, show that Mexico has not made the progress since NAFTA that it should have made.


Latin American economies Peru, Chile, Colombia, Brazil, and Mexico as the commodities boom cycle fades in 2013-2015

05/06/2010

Commodities exports make up about one fifth of output in Peru and Chile. Slowdown in growth in China will affect exports of copper and other metals. Brazil's growth faces additional hurdles with low investment rates, poor infrastructure and other problems. This in turn affects companies ranging from beer producers to other companies depending on sales in the region.

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The Pacto Por Mexico, Dec. 2, 2012- a landmark event for Mexico and its northern neighbors

08/15/2013

WSJ's Juan Montes interviews the important politicians of three major political parties who made the landmark event for Mexico happen on December 2, 2012- the Pacto por Mexico. Politicians from the three major political parties, the PAN, the PRD in the opposition and the PRI in government under president Nieto, show remarkable courage to sidestep old rivalries and differences. For PAN which faced PRI opposition on similar reform efforts, it was about foregetting revenge. For the PRD leader Zambrano who helped create a moderate left party, it was about forging a new beginning and making the initial overtures to the president. President Nieto and economist Videgaray deserve credit for grasping the significance of the PRD's proposal for the pact and working hard to make it a reality. Mexico now has the opportunity to become the most dynamic economy in the Americas after the U.S. From the pain of 15 years of stalled politics betwen the left, centre and right parties emerged a new consensus for the way forward. An exceptional piece of reporting by Montes on a landmark event for the Americas at a time when more children of Hispanic origin are born in the U.S. than of any other ethnic group- building a Mexico of opportunity and access and bridging a large part of the opportunity gap with its northern neighbors.

Grouped Articles

How Mexico Ended Political Gridlock

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Health Battle Over Soda Flares in Mexico

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Mexico Girds for Education Standoff After Contentious Bill Passes

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Mexican President Announces Tax Overhaul

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President of Mexico Proposes Tax Overhaul

New York Times 09/08/2013

Energy Plans Derail Political Accord in Mexico

Wall Street Journal 11/30/2013


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