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Markets Diverging in Emerging World
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The boost to investor perceptions for India with Modi's election, and to Indonesia with Widodo's election are major changes in the second half of 2014. The first half saw the dented confidence in Argentina, Venezuela, Turkey and South Africa. To this can be added Russia with Putin's response in Ukraine and western sanctions. China with Jinping's response to pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong for restoration of the pledge of free elections by 2017, appears to be losing investor confidence, especially with investors seeing this as adopting the Putin Way. This is happening with a gradual movement towards restoration of trade relations with Iran.
Emerging market perceptions changing in 2014-2015 with new leaders or political changes
10/01/2014
New leaders in India and Indonesia in 2014 have given a new confidence to investors, whereas leaders in Brazil, Turkey and South Africa have lost investor confidence. Erdogan for Turkey, Zuma for South Africa, and Rousseff for Brazil, do not inspire the same level of confidence. Other leaders who have changed investor perceptions for emerging markets are Putin in Russia with the sanctions. The rapidly changing situation with democracy protests in Hong Kong is eroding investor confidence in China as well, as Jinping in China is seen as adopting the Putin Way.
Grouped Articles
Markets Diverging in Emerging World
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2014
Putin Trumpets Economic Strength, but Advisers Seem Less Certain
New York Times 10/02/2014
Russian Companies Clamor for Dollars to Repay Debt
Wall Street Journal 10/10/2014
Why this teenager is a threat to Erdogan - The Washington Post
Washington Post 12/27/2014
Turkey’s economy: Saved by the well
Economist 01/18/2015
Monetary policy in India: The cycle turns
Economist 01/18/2015
Emerging Markets Financial Crisis in 2014 and 1997- the difference in 2014 is less contagion as investors look at individual countries
01/09/2009
The current account deficits are high in Thailand and Turkey, and this is coupled wth political uncertainty. Argentina faces high inflation at over 20%. Investors have focussed on Argentina and Turkey. Countries that failed to learn from the 1997 crisis such as Argentina, Turkey and Thailand, are seen in a different light from Mexico and Poland. India faces inflation of about 10%. Other countries affected are Russia, Brazil and South Africa. Most of the countries have flexible exchange rates in 2014 compared to fixed exchange rates in 1997, and higher dollar reserves in 2014 which helps cushion the effects of overseas borrowing. The effects on Europe and the U.S. in 2014 are seen as limited to how this affects the global economy.
Grouped Articles
Emerging-Market Slide Tests How Much Nations Learned From Past
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Russia Prepared to Let Ruble Slide
Wall Street Journal 01/30/2014
Selloff's Spread to Europe Is Sign of Broad Fear
Wall Street Journal 01/31/2014
Economic Turbulence Chips at Support for Turkish Premier
Wall Street Journal 01/31/2014
Red Alert on Russia Is Premature
Wall Street Journal 02/03/2014
Brazil Tries to Borrow Its Way to Prosperity
Wall Street Journal 02/10/2014
Argentina and Venezuela in the emerging markets crisis of 2014- depreciating currency and high inflation
05/07/2012
Grouped Articles
Inflation Fuels Crises in Two Latin Nations
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Dispute Leads Argentina to Revise Index
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Argentines Fret Over Price Uncertainty
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Argentina Peso Firms After Government Limits Banks' Foreign Currency Holdings
Wall Street Journal 02/06/2014
Argentina's Campaign Against Inflation Gets Personal
Wall Street Journal 02/08/2014
Amar Bhidé: In Praise of the Beleaguered Euro
Wall Street Journal 05/07/2012
Turkey's local elections in Istanbul and Ankara in March 2014- the AKP and a deeply divided Turkey
04/01/2014
The election of AKP party members in Istanbul and Ankara mayoral elections, with the AKP winning over half the vote and the CHP and other parties splitting the remaining votes. As the WSJ editorial on the same day points out the economic boom on which the AKP contested the election is already coming to an end with the end to surging credit. By winning just over half the vote in an election with suppression of freely expressed media opinion, the AKP has left Turkey as badly divided as before. The rise of the AKP based on Turkey's economic performance for the last decade, may lead the AKP to lose sight of the fact that this was for a significant part an improvement that has taken place across all emerging markets from Brazil to India, and which is gradually unwinding. A deeply divided nation will find it difficult to attract the kind of foreign investment Turkey needs to move forward, especially considering that credit expansion and foreign investment has financed Turkey's boom, not its manufacturing competitiveness.
Grouped Articles
The Turkish Ballot-Box Revolt That Wasn't
Wall Street Journal 04/01/2014
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan Gains Ground in Turkish Elections
Wall Street Journal 04/01/2014
Markets Diverging in Emerging World
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2014
Erdogan’s Governing Party in Turkey Loses Parliamentary Majority
New York Times 06/07/2015
Prospect of Instability Looms as Turkish Voters Deny Erdogan a Majority
New York Times 06/08/2015
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