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Argentina Is in Default, and Also Maybe in Denial
Keywords:
Stevenson and Caselli describe the mood in Buenos Aires as negotiations with hedge fund holdout bondholders fail in July 2014.
The holdout bondholders led by Mr. Singer of Elliott Capital hedge fund and Argentina- the two sides in the Argentine default
07/30/2014
Mr. Singer's hedge fund paid about $170 million for Argentine bonds acquired at a price well below the original value of the bonds following the debt crisis of 2001. He is suing the Argentine government for $1.5 billion including interest. His hedge fund firm manages $25 billion in assets and has returned 14% over the years. The long period this issue has festered should convince borrowers of the need to borrow carefully only where the capital can be put to productive use and generate adequate returns to pay off borrowings. Sovereign borrowers also need to build up the sovereign wealth funds to prepare for unforeseen contingencies and exercize vigilance in spending. Greece had a similar problem and paid a financial firm over $500 million to get out of a difficult situation in 2012, even as pensions were being cut.
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As Talks Falter, Argentine Bond Default Likely
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The current account deficits are high in Thailand and Turkey, and this is coupled wth political uncertainty. Argentina faces high inflation at over 20%. Investors have focussed on Argentina and Turkey. Countries that failed to learn from the 1997 crisis such as Argentina, Turkey and Thailand, are seen in a different light from Mexico and Poland. India faces inflation of about 10%. Other countries affected are Russia, Brazil and South Africa. Most of the countries have flexible exchange rates in 2014 compared to fixed exchange rates in 1997, and higher dollar reserves in 2014 which helps cushion the effects of overseas borrowing. The effects on Europe and the U.S. in 2014 are seen as limited to how this affects the global economy.
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