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Tensions Are Writ Large Before Ukraine Showdown
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The last days of the pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine, as Ukrainian government forces under the government of prime minister Poroshenko defeat separatists by July 2014. Russia decides not to intervene further. Opinion polls show a majority of Ukrainians in Donetsk do not favor separatism, and opposition is based on alienation from the poor quality of governance in Kiev. With the Poroshenko government committed to respecting the rights of Russian speaking Ukrainians, Tymoshenko soundly defeated in elections, and Russia's economy at risk in the adverse impact on foreign investor sentiment, Russia's sees little to be gained from supporting the separatists.
The Donetsk People's Republic and the collapse of pro-Russian separatism in eastern Ukraine, July 2014
07/07/2014
Opinion polls show a majority of Donetsk's citizens do not favor separatism, that most of the opposition springs from alienation with poor government from Kiev. The pro-Russian separatist forces are defeated by Ukrainian government forces under the Poroshenko government in Kiev by July 2014, as Russia decides not to intervene. The Russian economy feels the effect of adverse foreign investor sentiment by mid 2014, and the Russian government decides not to take any more risks. After signalling its opinion about EU close to its borders, and the importance of respecting rights of Russian speaking Ukrainians, Russia decides not to intervene further in Ukrainian affairs and Ukrainian choice of going with closer EU relations. The strong response from the EU, Germany and the U.S. also figures in the Russian response.
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Putin's early reactions to Yakunovych, corruption and poor leadership in Ukraine, and anti-Russian feeling in western Ukraine, were emotional and impulsive. The Crimean takeover was perceived very differently and gained Putin poor media coverage in Germany after decades of effort in building German-Russian relations, surely not worth what was gained in Crimea. The capital outflows estimated to reach $160 billion at one point and the damage to foreign investment sentiment at a time of sharp economic slowdown must rate as one of the poorest displays of policy making, when Russian speaking Ukrainians could be protected without damaging Russia's image and relations with western partners. Relationships needed for modernization of what is still an emerging market in a global economy. Even in a multipolar economic world with China, Russia playing a bigger role, other competing players Japan and India, would dilute any influence gained by China, and by Russia, and no change in the global economy. A more serious effort would be for Putin to have pushed to give Russia a more effective economic role by diversifying to a tech based economy, away from oil, something that still awaits Russia under some future leadership and party.
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Would this mark a return to a Cold War atmosphere. It would not. What it does is mark the limits to what Russia sees as American and NATO efforts to integrate the formerly Soviet countries of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO and the European Union. Even this is not certain as it may be Putin's response to NATO intervention in Kosovo inside Serbia.
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