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Afghan Armyâs High Turnover Clouds U.S. Exit Plan
Keywords:
The high risk of failure as the U.S. withdraws from Afghanistan in 2012-2013. The U.S. is handing over to an Afghan Army that faces a high desertion rate, high turnover, and uncertain loyalties. The turnover is so high that the Afghan Army has to replace a third of the 195,000 army every year. The problems from the corruption in the Karzai government, the flawed elections, and other issues have not been resolved, leaving a fragile government and a fragile army and police force as the U.S. withdraws. A decade of sacrifices in resources, lives and wounded, is at risk. A negotiated settlement in talks with the Taliban has not moved forward to create a post U.S. withdrawal Afghan government that brings in all parties. The untimely death of American diplomat Holbrooke who set up the accord that made peace in the Balkans, and the failure to get results at the talks only leaves the whole U.S. project at risk.
The facts about the Afghan Army the U.S. hands over to with the withdrawal in 2012- high risk of failure
10/15/2012
High desertion rate, high turnover, and other problems with the Afghan Army that the U.S. is handing over to with the withdrawal in 2012-2013. The increasing probability that the Afghan Army will fail to maintain control after the U.S. withdraws. The Karzai government has never tackled corruption and the issues arising from a flawed election leaving it without the kind of popular support it would need after the U.S. withdraws. The negotiations with the Taliban and the opposition have failed to produce any agreement on a post U.S withdrawal Afghanistan, putting the entire U.S. sacrifices in Afghanistan in lives lost, wounded veterans, and in the cost of the war at risk
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Gates Faults Obama Over Afghanistan
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U.S. Military Eyes Afghan Force of 10,000, or a Pullout
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U.S. Will Complete Afghan Pullout by End of 2016, Obama Says
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Obama Details Plan for Forces in Afghanistan
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Obama and Holbrooke: A Missed Opportunity
01/04/2008
Holbrooke grasped from his long experience in overseas conflicts what the best solution would be for Afghanistan- a negotiated settlement with the Taliban and Pakistan's army. The lack of White House support to the negotiator of the Dayton Peace accords in Bosnia, will remain a puzzling aspect of a landscape in America's costly involvement in two wars. Holbrooke's larger than life personality and style was the same under President Clinton who tapped Holbrooke's skills in America's interest and ignored posssible distractions. The failure of Obama to do the same and accomodate the personality to tap the vast trove of experience and wisdom of Holbrooke in a national crisis of two ongoing wars, is a comment on the nature of the leadership offered by the two presidents. It is a loss for America that goes unnoticed.
Grouped Articles
Pakistan to Release Senior Taliban Leader
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Leader of Pakistani Taliban Killed in Drone Strike
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Gates Faults Obama Over Afghanistan
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Back on World Stage, a Larger-Than-Life Holbrooke
New York Times 02/08/2009
The Eikenberry cables and the war in Afghanistan.
11/28/2009
The language is strong and rejects McChrystal's appraisal that additional troops can make the difference considering the failure of the Karzai government and the poor prospects for the Afghan army.
Grouped Articles
McChrystal article renews attention to split with Biden over Afghanistan
Washington Post 06/23/2010
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Afghans Offer Jobs to Taliban Rank and File if They Defect
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Filkins describes a crumbling feudal order of maliks left by the British which makes Afghanistan an even more dangerous place for an American project.
09/07/2008
Dexter Filkins points to another factor in Afghanistan. Not only is there a double game- see the link to Playing the Game- where the army, the ISI and many ordinary Muslims in Pakistan are sympathetic to fellow Muslims fighting the Americans, but there is a social change in process. This may be even more dangerous, as the British left a feudal order intact in Pakistan with a wealthy landholding class, In the Pathan or Pashtun countryside it was run through tribal elders called Maliks, in the Punjab the wealthy feudal landholding ran things pretty much the same way as the British did for the last 50 years. Dexter Filkins points to the crumbling of this structure in the Pathan (Pashtun) countryside.
Grouped Articles
New York Times 09/07/2008
Afghanistan Army Tries to Attract Southern Pashtuns
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New York Times 10/07/2011
A New Pakistan Policy: Containment
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Book review: ‘The Unquiet American: Richard Holbrooke in the World’ - The Washington Post
Washington Post 11/13/2011
The Afghan Surge Is Over - By Rajiv Chandrasekaran | Foreign Policy
Unknown 09/26/2012
The Pakistan Army and the U.S.
01/07/2008
The increasingly difficult position of General Kayani as he loses support from the rank and file in the army and junior officers on the issue of cooperation with the U.S. Admiral Mullen's criticism of Pakistan after the attacks on the U.S. Embassy in Kabul with the help of Pakistan's intelligence agency ISI.
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Pakistani forces kill alleged organizer of school massacre - The Washington Post
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Hamid Gul, 78, Dies; Backed Militants in Leading Pakistan Spy Agency
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General Kayani Is Said to Cling to Job in Pakistan
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Afghanistan's national army and police force
08/21/2010
Conditions do not offer much hope of fixing the problems.
Grouped Articles
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With Taliban’s Revival, Dread Returns to Swat Valley
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Afghanistan's troubled national army: Fixing the unfixable
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Kabul's Police Tab Fails a U.S. Audit
Wall Street Journal 04/26/2011
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Report Sees Danger in Local Allies
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India and Pakistan and the tensions in Kashmir and Afghanistan.
12/06/2006
Kashmir tensions are rising. And Indian assistance in Afghanistan reconstruction is opposed by Taliban. This complicates further negotiations between India and Pakistan as Pakistan already is going through political transition and the army runs foreign affairs for Pakistan.
Grouped Articles
Pakistan's New Top Diplomat Heads to Kabul
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U.S. Troop Pullout Affects India-Pakistan Rivalry
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Ex-Envoy Says Misunderstanding Runs on Both Sides of U.S.-Pakistan Ties
New York Times 10/22/2013
Leader of Pakistani Taliban Killed in Drone Strike
Wall Street Journal 11/02/2013
Taliban Take Toll on Pakistan's Biggest City
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Fractured State of Pakistani Taliban Calls Peace Deal Into Question
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The view form Pakistan which discourages a large American footprint there and in Afghanistan.
01/04/2008
The head of the ISI, Pakistan's intelligence agency, met with CIA officials and argued against America sending more troops to Afghanistan. Some opposition parties oppose the large American embassy construction in Islamabad and consulate in Peshawar as signs America is increasing its presence. And Army chief Kalyani who sees Taliban moving into Baluchistan opposes drone attacks on Mullah Omar residing there.
Grouped Articles
Pakistan Gives Sharif a Mandate
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Leader of Pakistani Taliban Killed in Drone Strike
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Taliban Making Military Gains in Afghanistan
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Around an Invisible Leader, Taliban Power Shifts
New York Times 12/28/2014
Taliban Leader Mullah Omar Is Dead, Afghan Spy Agency Says
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Pakistan's view on the debate in Washington about sending more troops and expansion of war in Afghanistan.
10/01/2009
Foreign Minister Qureshi at the Journal's offices in New York says it would mean the Pakistani Taliban would threaten Islamabad, there would be more misery, suicide bombings, and hurt the economy badly. But Qureshi speaks for an increasingly unpopular Zardari administration. The army, opposition parties, and the Intelligence agencies, and increasingly the public sentiment is against an expanded American presence in Afghanistan, or a bigger American footprint in Afghinstan and Pakistan. See Rosenberg in WSJ.
Grouped Articles
How the Pakistani Taliban Became a Deadly Force
New York Times 12/16/2014
Wall Street Journal 10/01/2009
Several Afghan Strategies, None a Clear Choice
New York Times 10/01/2009
Reconciliation Efforts in Afghanistan Flounder
Washington Post 10/14/2009
Pakistan Attacks Show Tightening of Militant Links
New York Times 10/16/2009
U.S. deeply split on troop increase for Afghan war
Washington Post 10/21/2009
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