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The media in US and in Europe presents the US and China on a confrontational course little aware that there is quietly emerging a new trend encouraged by both leaders of the two world powers. "Strategic Stability" in US -China relations instead of China seen as a rival and a threat- is now the goal of Xi Jinping of China in 2026 US-China dialogues and meetings. This was abundantly clear during the DJT visit to Beijing August 14 2026 and will continue to shape relations during Xi's visit in September. This is different from the confrontational attitude taken by both DJT in the first administration and Biden in his four years in office. The result is that these tensions are being gradually brought down which started in 2014, were exacerbated by Covid pandemic in 2019, and were put to the test in 2025 with tariffs policies of the incoming DJT administration. A decade of mistrust now being replaced by  buildup of cooperation, establishing a sense of trust and friendship. Partly out of necessity and partly from choice.This was not secured by giving up on issues the US or China saw as important. US did not concede anything on issues of fentanyl entering the US from Mexico, and tariffs for reducing trade deficits. Similarly China did not concede much on issues it saw as important, mutual respect for China as a significant power, and seeing China's different system of government and industrialization as legitimate and worthy of respect. On Hong Kong and on Taiwan both sides decided to see ambiguity and live and let live as the best option. So that in 2026 nothing, not the Iran War or anything that happens in the Middle East is to be allowed to deter both sides from making the educated good and decent choices that are available to them based on attitude of mutual respect.  ...

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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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In the 2 hour call Xi and Biden discussed issues that are creating serious differences between the 2 countries, the war in Ukraine, Taiwan, trade and tariffs, South China sea and Indo-Pacific issues, global supply chains, food and energy issues. Chinese statement says "those who play with fire will be perished by it. It is hope the US will be clear eyed about this." Xi Jinping takes on a third term in 2022. Biden has spoken with Xi five times since 2021 and the last call in March was to dissuade China from supporting Russia in the Ukraine war. China is opposed to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. Biden has said it was a bad idea at this time.

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Bien and Xi Jinping of China meet for the first time at the G20 gathering in Indonesia. This leads to clarification of positions of both sides on Taiwan and the emphasis on peaceful cooperation to resolve differences. The US says Biden seeks peaceful competition with China and exchange of opinions on differences.

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The Lewinsky scandal broke out in January 1998. Bill Clinton admitted "an imprpper relationship" in August 1998. The vote to impeach Clinton was in December 1998. The acquittal took place in Jan-Feb 1999 with the lack of a two thirds majority of 67 votes in the Senate. The damage is not just in reputations. It is in distraction sufficient to lead to flawed legislation that lacked key provisions for the China US Relations Act of 2000 that was taken up by the Senate in May 2000. Could such a major step be taken in the last year of a lame duck administration? Republicans returned to the White House in December of 2000 with George Bush. There were no provisions in the China Relations Act for abuse of the status after joining WTO through unfair trad practices. The result is millions of jobs lost and the entire manufacturing base of the US and Europe shipped to China by 2019. Under Xi Jinping China returned to an adversarial relationship with the US on the issues of Hong Kong and Taiwan. It could have done serious damage to the 1.4 billion people of India as the gap between China and India opened up dangerous security implications for South Asia, a time when governance model of the Nehru era had failed by 2014 leading to fragmentation of the kind that happened in China when Japan had surged ahead in the 1920's and 1930's leading to the devastating war and Japanese invasion of China in the 1930's by provoked incidents. It shows the grave consequences of poor governance including the periods under Bush and Obama that led to decisions to get into wars in remote mountainous and desert regions. A series of such events can as shown by Joel Mokyr of Northwestern University, that can lead to permanent decline for regions and nations. Under both Biden and DJT an effort is underway to respond to these challenges. ...

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This WSJ editorial looks beyond Speaker Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan. It says for decades during which China modernized its economy with US investment and technology, Chinese policy remained peaceful reunification and no set date. The US under this agreement for peaceful reunification agreed that it would follow One China policy and not follow the earlier policy during the Cold War of close defense ties with Taiwan. Now it appears from Chinese policy under Xi Jinping that Chinese plans are for reunification of Taiwan by any means and with a date of the next decade or even in the next 18 months, says WSJ. This is a change of previous Chinese policy says WSJ and the US response should be to act with a change in its policy to provide Taiwan with the ability to defend itself during an invasion of the islands around Taiwan or other invasion.

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The Biden administration has set new rules for restricting leading edge chip manufacturing in China. The policy is intended to prevent military use of advanced chip technologies by China, a policy adopted by Xi Jinping in China. US and China have differences on Taiwan and the Asia-Pacific region. Companies making chips will have to decide if they will invest in the US or China. Any leading edge manufacturing in China of chips over $100,000 or increasing manufacturing capacity by 5% will lead to restrictions being placed on these manufacturers for working with the US. This sends a clear message about US policy for leading edge chip technologies that the US seeks to protect from misuse by other countries.

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China says its students are subject to harsh questioning when coming to the US, and these students face racial discrimination in the US. 105,000 student visas for Chinese students were issued by the US embassy in Beijing and consulates in China in 2023 as the pandemic recedes and normal exchange relations resume. About 50,000 exchange program participants in the US are expected to visit China over 5 years. Nicholas Burns, 68 years, is the new US ambassador to China in April 2022. As the mood changes in the US with both presidential candidates ramping up their stand on trade with China and tariffs, US China relations face headwinds after the normalization of US-China relations following the pandemic, when Xi and Biden met in San Francisco in 2023. Chinese student facing racial discrimination in the US and the difficulties with learning English pose serious problems for Chinese students which Nicholas Burns in a diplomat sheltered world may have no idea of. This applies to students from mainland China and Taiwan alike. Burns may have too hastily dismissed this side of the perspective from Xi Jinping. ...

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This report in WSJ says 4 months before becoming China's president in 2012 Xi Jinping issued a Communist party directive as head of the party committee overseeing the former British colony. The directive cautioned officials about a growing separatist sentiment in Hong Kong. It said "we must dare to struggle and be good at fighting," a retired official describes as Xi's approach. Another facet of Xi's views on Hong Kong are that his father as a party leader for the southern province of Guangdong in 1978 to 1980 near Hong Kong was the first after the Cultural Revolution to set up ties between the mainland and the British colony of Hong Kong. China was experimenting with a different model for the economy and Xi's father set up the early links with Hong Kong so that the flow of economic refugees from mainland China to Hong Kong could be reduced and the gap in living standards could be narrowed. He set up the first "Special Economic Zone" and met delegations to start the Sino-British talks on Hong Kong's future. Xi Jinping grew up in the turmoil of the Cultural Revolution. His father Xi Zhongzun, was jailed in 1962 in internal party struggles, and his family was persecuted during the Cultural Revolution that started in 1966. The Cultural Revolution that went on till 1976 ironically was an attempt to stamp out possible capitalist or imperialist influences from the colonial period and the opium wars with Britain. He was later rehabilitated under premier Deng. During the turmoil Xi with some difficulty was admitted to University after spending some years in the countryside. His father remained loyal to the ideals of the Chinese Revolution even though he had suffered from the internal party struggles, an experience remains a strong memory for Xi Jinping. It is as if the period is seen as a period of experimentation and failure for the party not for its ideals of China rising from the colonial period after its failure to engage with the world before the colonial period leading to backwardness. The unity of the country had to be maintained bringing Hong Kong and possibly Taiwan together with the mainland. Rejuvenation was happening and stability was essential for Chia to grow and emerge into the "China Dream" a word coined by Xi for its emergence in the community of nations as an equal to western powers after the colonial period of oppression and cultural backwardness. In this way he is different than other leaders before him who followed premier Deng who started the experimentation with markets and economic structures. The leader preceding him was party secretary in Tibet with a prime minister who was an engineer working on public projects, in sharp contrast to Xi who had the the sense of authority from seeing different phases of Communist party experimentation in his early years. The Bo Xi Lai incident during the transition before 2012 also influenced Xi. This was an attempt similar possibly to the attempt by Lin Piao under Mao to subvert Communist Party leadership into a new direction bringing China under Soviet influence after the break by Mao. Bo Xi Lai, a party secretary for an interior less developed region Chongqing, who rose from being Mayor of Dalien to governor of Liaoning province. Bo Xi Lai attempted to subvert the process operating since the Cultural Revolution of leadership by consensus within the party ensuring stability and continuity needed for development and pushing the trauma of the Cultural Revolution out of memory. He did this by seeking high party office for his own ambitions not for the party and China's interests that guided leaders after the Cultural Revolution. This incident and the period of two decades of growth of market economy had led to growing corruption and Xi was convinced that "corruption would doom the Communist Party and the State" and the resulting instability was bad for China. During this period in 2012 Xi Jinping said that it was necessary to remove "tigers and flies" who could endanger the party's ideals and the future growth and stability of the country.  About 10,000 party officials were removed for corruption, and the rule of Politburo Standing Committee immunity (PSC) of the party operating after the Cultural Revolution was removed. The PSC is the body that at the top of the organization structure that runs China. On Hong Kong Xi now believes that the problem is best tackled by the Hong Kong government not by intervening from Beijing. There is increasing perception in Beijing and Hong Kong that the local government, business leaders have messed things up, by getting into the habit of telling Beijing planners what they wanted to hear, and failing to communicate with the 7 million people of Hong Kong. These leaders are also in a bind because Xi believes that Beijing exercized "overall governance authority" over Hong Kong. A 2014 government white paper warns against "confused or lopsided perceptions" of Hong Kong's status, saying that its partial autonomy comes "solely from the authorization of the central leadership."     ...

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U.S. president Trump makes a call to Taiwan president Tsai Ing-Wen, which was arranged by former Senator Bob Dole. The call went into details about stability in Asia-Pacific. In Twitter posts Trump was critical of China for currency policies and activity in South China Sea.

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There is a sense of cognitive dissonance in the states of former East Germany, known as the GDR or German Democratic Republic in the Soviet Union period from 1950's to 1990. The 5 states that formed the GDR continued to build close ties with Russia after the fall of the Berlin Wall, in the perception that this would build good long term relations. The crisis in Ukraine with border states of the Soviet Union opting in favor of close ties with the European Union and not Russia have disrupted the economic relations between the Federal Republic of Germany and Russia. As long as Russia needed the economic ties to build its economy and standard of living the political issues posed by NATO expansion and EU expansion were set aside by Putin and political parties within Russia. The very ties that were supposed to usher in an era of peace in Europe helped strengthen the Russian and Chinese economies. Leading to a point where these two economies were strong enough by 2021 in the midst of the waning pandemic to  assert themselves on political issues where serious differences existed such as expansion of NATO and Taiwan. When the economic relations such as making China a manufacturing powerhouse  was the path taken by American and European business in 1990's, business interests were focused on the declining quality and high wages demanded by unions and workers in the US and Germany. This could be personally witnessed at Apple's factory in Colorado Springs where quality was failing badly in the 1990's. Apple when Steve Jobs returned in 1997 adopted a China manufacturing strategy when its manufacturing operations in the US failed to deliver the quality and cost structure needed for it to expand. The high margins with low costs of manufacturing in China was the strategy adopted by Steve Jobs to compete with Microsoft and turbocharge its expansion. Soon other companies followed. A similar process happened in economic ties with Russia on a smaller scale. Two decades of such expansion whittled down American manufacturing, hurt American workers, hurt European manufacturing and European workers.  This process could not continue- yellow vest protests in France, the protest vote in US midwestern states in recent elections, the protest votes in German elections and fragmentation of parties, made this clear. The US imposed trade tariffs on Chinese products and moved to restrict flow of technologies to China under the Trump administration, accelerated by the Biden administration. President Xi was once of the view that China's ties with the US were important "thousand fold" in the period as late as 2010. Yet this lopsided trade relationship was not beneficial to American workers or American interests as a technologically advanced leader. It is true that American workers and engineers at Apple had failed to ensure American quality competitiveness in the 1980's into 1990's, yet no advanced country or its business can come up with a false narrative that cedes its manufacturing leadership and jobs for the working class of its country. That false narrative is being challenged today by Mr. Biden, Mr. Scholz, and all American and German political parties, and by Mr. Modi with Atman Nirbhar Bharat for local manufacturing. The integration one sees of the port of Hamburg as Chinese export hub with China's economy is one aspect of what has happened. A new leadership is taking its place in Europe and in America that sees clearly the false narrative. The visit of the new Danish prime minister to India is the beginning of the effort to set up a new logistics relationship with South and South East Asia, as Denmark's Maersk is a world leader in shipping logistics for exports and manufacturing. The planned Noida logistics center outside of New Delhi under Gati Shakti integrated development is part of the change happening today as a new supply chain is being built. The unwinding of the one sided trade relationship with China, and its related relationship on energy with Russia, led to the changing perception in Russia and China of the value of the relationship. Political relations superseded economic and cultural relations during Putin's second phase and Xi's second phase with assertive attitudes on NATO, and on Hong Kong, Taiwan under Xi and Putin 2.0. As could be expected Germany and the US were caught flat footed as leaders who were cast in the mold of Putin as a Soviet representative in Dresden, and Xi with his father leading the Communist struggle in the 1930's and 1940's against Chiangkaishek, acted in ways that reflected the Soviet period. Chiang left for Taiwan in 1948 when Mao-tse-tung setup the People's Republic of China. Taiwan and Hong Kong remained important in the perceptions of Xi 2.0, in the effort to build "China Dream" and erase last vestiges of what in Soviet times were seen as western colonialism. US and EU particularly Business and the new IT telecom Business failed to grasp these matters, and historical events such as the opium wars of the 1850's. Business and cultural interests lacked both the inclination to learn and the knowledge of these events in Chinese history and its relations with colonial powers Britain and Japan, and also Russia. In 1900 the Boxer rebellion against ceding Chinese ports to colonial powers Britain, Japan, Russia, ended with permanent colonial settlements in Hong Kong, Shanghai, Tsingtao, other Chinese ports. Chinese rejuvenation in the mind of leaders such as Xi from the second generation of Communist leadership, means putting this behind, leading to the action taken in Hong Kong. In some ways as some observers have commented it is as much a problem of the sluggishness of American and European thinking, particularly business interests including in Taiwan, post British Hong Kong, and ignorance of recent Chinese history which was mistakenly thought not to exist or forgotten. This is as much of a problem as the action taken by Putin and moves by Xi Jinping. The great democracies such as India, Indonesia, Bangladesh, were ignored as American and European business interests integrated the American and German economies with China's. In terms of population the population of these regions and related parts of South East Asia such as Malaysia and Vietnam which have a shared cultural history is about 1.5 times the population of China. Travelling through the parts of India's largest state Uttar Pradesh, an Madhya Pradesh one finds how much American and European business interests have failed both their own interests, their own workers and failed the great democracies of the world, by not only not investing in the democracies of Asia, and also of Africa and Latin America and bought into a narrative of China which no longer holds true and may never have been true all along. This is starkly evident in a once in a century pandemic in these great democracies of the world. These democracies have been left to fend for themselves during the pandemic and their leaders facing false narratives in the media such as the BBC and American media outlets even on issues such as vaccination of the largest part of the world's people.           ...

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Buddhism gives people the opportunity follow a path to spiritual life and peace of mind without getting involved in politics. Here NYT provides a look at Buddhism in China as it is practiced to get people to set better moral standards to rejuvenate China. The founder was a small child traveling across China with his mother searching for their father after the Japanese invasion of China. He joined a monastery they passed by. After the Communist takeover of the mainland in 1949 and during the years of the Cultural Revolution he was active in a missionary movement for Buddhism and Buddhist culture in Taiwan.  Chinese president Xi Jinping has met with him 4 times and supports the movement in China as part of an effort to rejuvenate China and improve moral standards lost during the rush to modernization and industrialization. At one point even telling him "I have read all the books you have sent me Master."  For this movement to revive Buddhist culture and ethics the politics is secondary, what matters is the quality of people's lives and their finding fulfillment by living lives that honor the values of a good society that is caring for fellow beings, and practicing good moral standards.  Imagine a 100 acre facility that holds 2 million books in Yangzhou, including 100,000 volume collection of Buddhist scriptures. Built in two valleys of bamboo forest the temple in Yixing  is special, the atmosphere quiet and reflective, and with reading rooms, rooms for calligraphy, for tea. It was started in 2006 and is active with many people visiting the temple. In Buddhist countries such as Burma, Sri Lanka, Thailand, wherever Buddhism has got entangled with politics the purity and purpose of Buddhism has suffered. Putting Buddhist culture, learning, and quality of living first is essentially the way the Buddha had meant it to be. In a rare and profound way both Mr. Xi and the founder of this Buddhist group have made a unique and lasting connection to rejuvenate China after 100 years of tumult, war, and strife that started with the wars at Chinese ports in the 1850's, and 50 years of rush to industrialize that made weary and weakened the soul of a nation. During the period post coronavirus pandemic China and the Chinese people may find in Buddhist culture much that can enhance the quality of life just as the European nations France, Britain and Germany look back to their own culture and tradition for rejuvenation and renewal. In this sense even as China faces a West determined to protect its industry and technology, and returns to its roots, China can find a way to its own roots, confident that the period of European domination can no longer torment its soul. ...

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Areddy describes the choices facing China's president Xi Jinping as he faces protests in Hong Kong demanding the resignation of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying. Protestors are also calling for canceling of a plan to limit nominations for chief executive to a committee loyal to Beijing. Xi Jinping has experience with Hong Kong affairs as he held the portfolio for Hong Kong affairs as part of the leadership when he was vice president. There are precedents where Beijng has changed course, as it sees it important to put memories of Tiananmen protest suppression behind. In 2003 six years after Britain handed Hong Kong to China -under an agreement for "one country, two systems," that granted separate status and system of government to Hong Kong- an anti-subversion law was pulled back. And the unpopular Chief Executive Tung Chee-hwa, a shipping magnate, resigned after 18 months. Beijing has to balance its concern for the "contagion effect" of protests on other parts of China, with the need to maintain the right climate for business and investment in Hong Kong and other financial centres. With slowing growth and limits to overexpanding credit, a crackdown in Hong Kong would further exacerbate problems with the international community, and create tensions in Taiwan about future reintegration with China. China warned foreigners not to interfere, and the American Consulate in Hong Kong stated it "strongly supports Hong Kong's well-established traditions and Basic Law protections of internationally recognized fundamental freedoms, such as freedom of peaceful assembly, freedom of expression and freedom of the press." The British government also pointed to Hong Kong's "fundamental rights and freedoms, including the right to demonstrate," which were in the spirit of the 1997 transfer agreement....

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Tsai Ing-Wen is elected president of Taiwan by a landslide in the Jan. 2016 election. Tsai, leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was elected with 56 percent of the vote, compared to 31 percent for the Koumintang candidate Eric Chu. The DPP won 68 seats out of 113 in Taiwan's parliament. Tsai told a news conference about Taiwan- China relations - "I also want to emphasize that both sides have a responsibility to find mutually acceptable means of interaction that are based on dignity and reciprocity."

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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

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Jaishankar was asked at the 2021 GLOBSEC conference in Bratislava in 2021 why he thinks anyone will help India in case of a problem with China after it did not help others for Ukraine. Chancellor Scholz of Germany cites Indian Foreign Minister Jasihankar's remarks in Bratislava, Slovakia, in 2021. Jaishankar said- "Europe has to grow out of the mindset that Europe's problems are the world's problems, but the world's problems are not Europe's problems. That is if it is you it's yours, if it is me it is ours. I see reflections of that. There is a linkage today which is being made. A linkage betwen China and India and what's happening in Ukraine. Chia and India happened way before anything happened in Ukraine. The Chinese do not need a precedent somewhere else on how to engage us or not to engage us or be difficult with us or not to be difficult with us." These are Scholz's remarks at the Munich Security Conference. Scholz says Jaishankar has "a point."  "This quote from the Indian Foreign Minister is included in this year's Munich Security Report and he has a point it would't be Europe's problem alone if the law of the strong were to assert itself in international relations." To be credible European or North American in New Delhi or Jakarta, it is not enough to emphasize shared values. "We generally have to address the interests and concerns of these countries as a basic prerequisite for joint action. And that's why it was so important to me to not merely have representatives of Asia, Africa and Latin America at the negotiating table during the G-7 Summit last June. I really wanted to work with these regions to find solutions to the main challenges they face growing poverty and hunger, partly as a consequence of Rusia's war, as well as the impact of climate change or COVID-19. There is another side to this -Scholz and Germany's president Frank Walter-Steinmeier are from the social Democrats party which has sought closer cooperation with Russia, and also carry a great deal of ambivalence for the war. America is not fighting this indirect war in its neighborhood, Germany is. And some of the roots of this conflict go back to the Napoleonic invasion of Russia in the 1800's period and the German invasion in the 1940's. Macron is even more ambivalent in his position and he has remained this way from the beginning- not committed to humiliating Russia. In a way it is the position of the Social Democrats from the historical context of Germany's invasion of Russia, and Christian Democrats eagerness to create a German recovery with low cost Russian energy that created the dependence that Russia sought to use. In what it sees as the unfairness of NATO being allowed to expand right next to its borders. Because of a sense of righteousness on both sides- Russia of the Soviet period failing to see the feelings of a Budapest in 1956, East Berlin in 1953, and Prague in 1968, sees little wrong in an invasion of Kviv. And with it all the biography of Brezhnev the last leader of the Soviet Union, describes that very struggle in the Great Patriotic War the soviets fought against Nazi Germany which was fought by Ukrainians including Leonid Brezhnev with great will and purpose against all odds.  Cambridge historian has written the history of Europe that Scholz is cited to be reading in 2021- Europe The Struggle for Supremacy 1453 to the Present.  It shows Europe since 1453 engaging in balance of power of European powers, Sweden Denmark, Russia, Austria, Germany, France, Britain, Turkey, continually for 500 years. Europe simply forgot its own history. Asia including Japan, China, Indonesia and India, simply emerging from the situation of falling behind in science, technology, and the industrial revolution and building their economies with the help of the US since the Meiji Restoration in Japan in 1868. The Balance of Power Simms says was maintained for 500 years is simply based on no country allowed to act with impunity, no country allowed to do whatever it wanted because of its position of strength at that moment or period of time. In that situation all other powers regrouped to keep the balance from being upset. The war in Ukraine is also likely to end in a way that is consistent with that which Brendan Simms writes about because this has not changed now for over 500 years. Biden knows this and it has fallen on America to shoulder the burden for this in the last 150 years, Scholz is aware of this, Modi in India sees this, and Jinping in China realizes this even with its concerns about Taiwan.   ...

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Spain's central bank was lauded for macroprudential supervision before the housing bubble burst. Will China's central bank and financial authorites which have managed the housing bubble upto this point face similiar problems? Can China be the sole exception even as housing bubbles burst with wide repercussions in the U.S., UK and Spain? Nicholas Lardy, of the Peterson Institute of international Economics, says urban housing stock makes up 41% of Chinese household wealth in 2011. The same figure for the U.S. is 26%. Chinese buyers invest in homes because low interest rates on savings accounts cannot keep up with inflation. Real estate investment was 13% of GDP in 2011. Home ownership is a recent development in China, only since 1990, Chinese have never experienced large price declines. Household debt as a percentage of disposable income has increased significantly in recent years, up to 53.6% in 2011 from 31.3% in 2008, according to Lardy.