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With China's automobile market declining for the fifth month in a row, and trade tensions rising, it now appears that carmakers such as Ford expanded too quickly in the Chinese market. Ford, Peugeot, and Hyundai appear to have poorly times their expansion in China, expanding at the tail end of the Chinese boom just ahead of the new Trump administration's efforts to challenge China's lopsided trade balance.  It has become so bad that this report shows workers at a Peugeot factory in China spending their days washing floors and attending Communist political study sessions at work. At a Ford plant workers shifts are reduced to a couple of days a month. Sales grew 3% in 2017 and declined 2% in the first 11 months of 2018, after increases of 14% in previous years taking the market to 28 million in a dizzying ride as it surpassed the U.S. sales of 17.5 million. Overcapacity is a problem in China with the aggressive expansion. There is capacity to make 43 million cars, but will produce 29 million in 2018, according to PwC, consulting firm. Ford meanwhile put in a new plant in Harbin in 2017, expanding its capacity to 1.6 million a year, but sales peaked at 1.27 million in 2016, and are down 6% in 2017, and 34% in 2018 to about 700,000. While there are no layoffs some workers are making only $220 monthly, forcing them to take second jobs as cab drivers or couriers. Suzuki decided to quit in 2018 exiting China entirely just so it would not pile up losses in what is now a market that is way overblown from the boom years. Electric vehicle production in the pipeline of about 7.5 million vehicles will compound this problem further with 32 new plants planned by 26 firms.   ...

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EIA says half of the benefit of higher fuel efficiency standards for Automobiles 2010-2020 in US was lost because of SUV's and the incentivizing of SUV's in the 2006 CAFE standards have made things worse. The first SUV's came in the 1980's. By 2004 SUV's made up half of car sales and by 2025 outsold cars 2 to 1. What if we took all SUV's and large cars off the roads, or even some of these SUV's by deincentivizing of SUV's in the US CAFE corporate fuel efficiency standards? What would be the savings in crude oil and in carbon footprint? Would it be about the same as releasing an additional 400 million barrels of oil into the markets in addition to the 400 million barrels that are now released through EIA and member countries? This New Yorker essay touches on this idea. During the Iran war the volatile Middle East as a source of oil supplies is a major problem for countries. Some are rationing supplies and in one country 40 million children are not going to school for 2 weeks starting this week because of the sources of oil are so precarious, government offices will only have half of the employees, the rest working from home (almost like Covid pandemic). Many other countries face that situation. The International Energy Agency recently reported that, if “SUVs were an individual country, they would rank sixth in the world for absolute emissions in 2021, emitting over 900 million tonnes of CO2.” The agency says governments must redesign their CAFE standards and their policies so that it would reduce S.U.V. sales, tax gas guzzling vehicles. EIA cites governments in the EU doing this- “Some governments have already started introducing relevant measures, such as France and Germany, which have put a tax on large and high-emissions cars.” Within SUV's also there is an opportunity to reduce the size and make more efficient space utilization designs. Small savings also add up. One has to realize that the current freedom to use energy freely in places like the US with self sufficiency in oil comes with a sense of responsibility for using it wisely so that it can be exported to cut the trade deficit, precisely what the president is doing with India, to cut a trade deficit of $58 billion before it gets to $100 billion. Section 301 is already in place for investigations by the US of 18 countries for a new basis to use tariffs after the Supreme Court decision. A similar approach is taken with EU for hundreds of billions of reductions in trade deficit that will only strengthen the US dollar and the US economy in the long run , and be good for stock markets and jobs as it reduces oil prices and increases the manufacturing capacity/cost for the Nation. Europe, India and China can do the same. Remember that in 2010 SUV's made up 17% of total world sales, and by 2025 SUV's made up 46% of world vehicle sales. This would create another 400 million barrels for the oil markets, which would triple what was released through EIA  this week to 1.2 billion barrels and this would create 120 days of supply replacement for the 10 million b/d lost from Straits of Hormuz, and effectively end the Iran War as it would be clear that prices can be kept low even in the $50's. Essentially buying time till the SU can get more production in Venezuela and other parts of the world to replace much of the Middle Eastern oil that is ending up in a quagmire. This is the best way for the US and Europe, India, China to ensure jobs growth, economic growth with low cost crude oil in the $50 range and ensure much of the poorer countries like Egypt and Indonesia, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Bangladesh, have access to oil at prices they can afford and eliminate poverty. ...

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GM plans to bring 5 to 10 Cadillac models to China by 2016. It plans to build a factory for Cadillacs in China. Even as auto sales are slowing down in China in 2012, sales of luxury and premium cars are growing rapidly. Infiniti, Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Tata's Jaguar-Land Rover, and now GM are competing for sales to China's growing affluent class. According to IHS Global Insight, China's auto sales slowed to 2.5% growth in 2011, yet sales of premium car sales increased by 32%. With sales slowing in Europe and the U.S., car manufacturers are focussing on the luxury segment in China to boost profits. BMW's sales chief, Ian Robertson, says sales will slow in coming quarters from the 32% growth rate of 2011, but he still expects double digit growth for premium cars in future years. In making its large investments in China Ford executives said it expected a growth in China's car market of 5% over the next decade. BMW plans to increase production to 200,000 cars after opening its second plant in 2011, with capacity to ramp up to 300,000 a year....

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The government sets a goal of reducing the number of automakers in China from 70 currently to a much smaller number by 2015. With slower growth in the Chinese market, 55 of these companies sell only 11% of the total cars sold, and no sales for 10 manufacturers. Foreign car companies are investing heavily and control 58% of the 18 million cars sold in China. Domestic car companies are faring poorly. Cherry sales dropped by 30% in November 2011 acccording to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Changan, Guangzhou Automobile Group and BYD have seen sales declines of 10% in 2011 for domestic sales.

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In May 2023 Germany's Scholz overruled Habeck to let sale of 24.9% of Hamburg port to COSCO go through. Here is how over 2000-2016 China build its world class network of containerized shipping ports while the second Bush added the war in Afghanistan to the wars in Iraq started by Reagan/Bush. Without defense costs China built this world ports network. Piraeus in Greece, south of Athens, a port concession acquired in 2004 Antwerp in Belgium (Austrian Netherlands), a minority stake in a container port acquired in 2008. In 2013 with sale of Terminal Link ports in a Cosco 49% stake deal by CMA of France CMA holding 51%, China has stakes in Zeerbrugge and Antwerp, Busan South Korea, and Le Havre, Montoir and Fos in France, Xiamen in China, Miami and Houston in US. Rotterdam, Netherlands- Cosco acquired in 2016 a 35% stake in Euromax Terminal in Rotterdam from Hong Kong's Hutchison's Holdings for $125 million. Valencia and Bilbao majority  51% stake for $270 million, when JP Morgan paid as much as $950 million to ACS of Spain for these ports after the 2009 crisis led to Spanish divestments. Today measured in TEU shipping containers China sends goods to Europe 10 times what it takes in through Spanish ports. ...

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Audi is the second largest car company in the premium car category in China after BMW. Audi now plans to make 700,000 cars in China by 2015 instead of 2020 as planned earlier. Audi say executives say the premium car segment in China is growing rapidly in China. It expects sales to grow overall at a a more normal pace than the frenetic pace of recent years. The slower growth in the economy at 7-8%, which is reflected in slower sales in the overall market, is not the case with the premium cars. Because of rapid growth in 4-5 years the Chinese market for premium cars will look more like mature markets in the U.S. and Europe, says Audi sales chief Schwarzenbauer.

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Over $700 million in aid was provided in 2013 to struggling Chinese automakers from the central and local governments in an overcrowded industry, according to Wind Information Company. Companies receiving aid include Dongfeng Motor, BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motor, Guangzhou Automobile. Both domestic and foreign makers of cars are increasing capacity in an oversupplied market as sales decelerate. Domestic brands market share is declining compared to foreign car makers. Domestic makers market share declined to 37.1% in April 2014 from 39.6% in 2013, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Ford Motor has added large SUV capacity to increase sales, and VW plans to increase capacity further. By 2015, overcapacity in China's market could reach 8 million cars, according to UBS Securities.

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China's BYD started in electric batteries and expanded into electric cars. It has emerged as the dominant electric car company in the world as China now has half of the electric cars on the road in the world. 35% of exports of electric cars are from China. Keith Bradsher of NYT reports from Shenzen that its first car was made in 2007 of poor quality, similar to Toyota in the 1930's as it tried car manufacturing for the first time. It has surpassed Tesla in making electric cars. In each of the last 2 years it has increased electric car sales by one million to reach electric car sales on 3 million. EV sales in China were up in 2023 to 9.49 million cars giving BYD the largest share of 31%., by comparison US electric car sales were 1.2 million. New assembly lines are being built in Brazil, Hungary and Thailand. And new lines are planned for Mexico and Indonesia. This kind of growth was seen only by General Motors in 1946 after the end of the war. It also shows the progress China is making. In solar panels something like the addition of 900 million solar panels meeting the entire increase in electricity demand for each year, so that emissions targets can be met earlier than planned to tackle climate change.  The same changes are happening in electric cars. China now has 40% of electric cars or gasoline/electric plug in cars going up to 50%. For export China is building large carrier ships, the first that will take 5000 cars for export to the Netherlands. The lowest priced electric car model the Seagull was priced at $11,000. BYD's lowering of manufacturing costs have given it the ability to price the cars to attract new car buyers.  Wang Chuanfu who studied at Central Southern University in Changsha known for its battery research, was an engineer who started the company in the 1990's to make batteris for Motorola. Between 2003-2006 he experimented with making cars in the hope of making electric cars. Stalled efforts in 2009 and 2011 were met with arenewed effort in 2016 trying a new approach to cut costs by developing a battery where supplies of lithium or cobalt would not be a constraint. He developed a new battery using iron and phospate to replace lithium cobalt batteries. A big break came in 2020 with the Blade battery that increased range to the level of cobalt lithium batteries at a much smaller cost. BYD hired German Audi designers for new model design. This time BYD was in the right position to build a car company matching all others with costs lower by about 35% than VW for some models. This comes from- lower costs to make in China, making its own parts inside the company for 75% of parts compared to VW only about 35%, and by the savings from its battery research.  BYD has shown ability to shift with market needs and opportunities. In 2022 assisted driving was facing hurdles, BYD had second thoughts about the new technology, by 2023 as it was increasing in use BYD committed $14 billion in autonomous driving technology. Driving range is a problem for people in urban areas going back to their villages in China. BYD has an advantage here compared to Tesla- it makes hybrid plug ins that account for half its sales. Toyota has also had emphasis on hybrid plug ins where it missed the opportunity was that it moved very slowly on all electric cars not realizing how fast things were moving outside it's world. This is the situation America also faces in 2024 and beyond who can deliver on the infrastructure capabilities, new research ,and tap American potential to compete in this new world where one innovation will follow another. ...

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Sales of automobiles in China in July 2012 declined 12.6% from the prior month according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. There are two parts of China's automobile sector, the foreign brands of GM, Toyota, VW, Ford and others, and the Chinese brands. There are 48 Chinese domestic carmakers for 30% of China's automobile market, with sales of 87,500 per brand on average, according to J.D. Powers. Many of these carmakers will not survive even with subsidies from local governments. China's car buyers prefer foreign brands because of the better quality and reliability. Foreign carmakers face an oversupply of cars as GM, Honda, Ford, VW have continued to add capacity. Total automobile manufacturing capacity is about 28.5 million cars and commercial vehicles. This is 9 million more than the expected sales in 2012, according to J.D. Powers. The most recent company adding large capacity is Ford Motor Company, which was relatively late in the Chinese market, and decided to boost capacity from 450,000 in 2011 to 1.2 million in 2015, to make it the largest manufacturing location outside of its home base of Michigan. This creates the prospect of foreign carmakers having to offer larger incentives and discounts to manage inventory and operating with higher levels of unused capacity, reducing profits in future years. Most of the plans to increase capacity were made when China's GDP growth was over 10%, it is now slowing to 7.5%....

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Plans to increase VW production in China by 70% for 2018 and introduce a small budget car designed for the Chinese market at a price range of 6000-8000 euros. A depressed European market with VW sales down 8% in Europe in the first 2 months of 2013, means a vigorous push in China, India, Russia, America and Southeast Asia. The new budget car would be modeled on Renault's Dacia. VW will build 10 plants outside Europe, 7 in China. Additional plants will increase capacity in China to 4 million vehicles from the current 2.3 million in March 2013.

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The move by Peugeot and Fiat Chrysler to merge is seen as an effort to use consolidation as a way to tackle depressed demand. Ford and GM are struggling in foreign markets, as Toyota and VW have expanded in foreign markets, and Geely has expanded in China with stakes in Daimler and Volvo AB. Added costs for the shift to electric cars, higher emissions standards,  are also hurting car makers. Global new car sales of 96 million in 2018 are expected to decline by 4% in 2019, and remain sluggish, with the U.S. China trade war and Brexit taking its toll. Some car companies are particularly affected. Chrysler's European car factories ran at about 52% in 2018, well below European industry average of 73%.

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China's sales of automobiles dropped by 7.4% to 20.7 million in 2019, according to the China Passenger Car Association. Sales of GM were hit hard with adrop of 15%, and Ford sales dropped for two successive years. Also hit hard were low to midrange Chinese brands with declining sales in western and central China. 

German and Japanese brands picked up sales with Toyota sales increasing by 9% in 2019.

 

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Increasing loan financed car sales in China in 2014. Loan financed car sales are 17% in China for 2013, 35% in Japan, 50% in Brazil and in Germany, 45% in UK/France, 8% in Vietnam, and a high of 80% in the U.S., 70% in India.

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GM sells just 30,000 Cadillacs in China. It is one of 8 brands with total GM sales of 2.8 million vehicles in China. The luxury and premium vehicle market is growing in China with 8.5% of the total vehicle market in 2012. GM's 30,000 Cadillac sales makes Cadillac at only one tenths of one percent of its China sales volume, and way behind luxury car makers Mercedes and BMW. GM plans to take a larger share of this market and increase Cadillac sales to 100,000 by 2016. To do this GM will launch a new advertising campaign in China with actor Brad Pitt and increase dealers in China to 200 by the end of 2013. A new Cadillac will be introduced every year through 2016. Cadillac comes in the SRX, a small sport utility vehicle, and the XTS, a full size sedan. A 8 cylinder Cadillac, the SLS, will be discontinued.

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The Chinese car market is changing fast, with domestic brands making up a larger share of the local market. In 2000 these domestic brands made up 18% of total sales, whereas in 2010 forecasts show this to be about 32%, with the share increasing in future years. In a rapidly growing market this did not make much difference, but with the market growth moderating to 7-8% in the next ten years from the heady 33% of recent years, the foreign brands such as GM and VW will not see the growth of recent years. J.D. Powers projects passenger vehicle sales in China at 19.2 million by 2017, with Chinese brands taking 45% of the share, in one scenario. Under this scenario foreign brands like GM and VW would see sales growth of only 5% in the next 7 years. The foreign brands are not allowed to own more than 50% of local operations. And their partners are making their own domestic brands. If Japan is a useful example, China's automobile companies will like Nisssan, Toyota, and Honda, proceed to penetrate global markets and become a dominant player in their local market. This has implications for GM, VW and Daimler....

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A traffic jam on Highway 110, leading from the border with Inner Mongolia to Beijing for 60 miles, is now passing 10 days, with traffic inching along at 3 miles per hour. With roadwork on a highway from Beijing to Tibet starting August 13, sections of a major road which circles Beijing have been closed. Chinese bought 13.6 million vehicles in 2009, compared to 9.4 million in 2008. China is building roads, but cannot keep up with this surge in automobile use, especially in Beijing. A study by IBM puts China at the top for "commuter pain," the pain suffered by drivers as they stay stuck on roads. In fact China's media reported that average driving speeds for Beijing could go as low as 9 miles per hour, if car sales in Beijing keep growing at the rate of 2000 new cars per day. According to the Beijing Transportation Research Center, Beijing will have 7 million vehicles by 2015. Beijing was once known for bicycles in the Mao era, and this could be the pace that traffic moves says the Center....

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Slower growth for luxury car sales in China in 2013. German carmakers BMW, Audi and Mercedes are strong in this segment.

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India's car market is expected to surpass Japan's by 2016, with estimated sales of 4.88 million vehicles in 2016. Sales were 2.91 million vehicles in 2011. Sales in China are expected to increase to 19.2 million vehicles in 2012, passing an estimated figure for Europe of 18.15 million for 2012. Sales estimates are by IHS Automotive.

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A big factor in U.S. car sales, which reached 7.5 million in 2015, exceeding the 7.3 million in 2000, is that a large portion of cars on the road were about 11 years old following the recession in 2008-2009. As Dexter Ford pointed out in a article in 2012 many car owners on the road had replaced the earlier 100,000 mile mark before buying a new car, with 200,000. This pent up demand, and the better technological features including gasoline conserving technology, gave new impetus to demand in 2013-2015. Lower gasoline prices at the pump of about $2.00 a gallon in Jan. 2016 across parts of the country made it economical to own SUV's and pickup trucks. The U.S. car companies Ford, GM and Chrysler-Fiat had sales of 2 million full size pickup in 2015, with the Ford F-150 leading. Car companies have come through a severe crisis and are taking steps to avoid a repeat of the mistakes of the past on fuel efficiency- Ford has introduced a lighter aluminium based version of the F-150 for example. Gasoline prices also provide buyers with extra money to meet car payments which now have been stretched to longer periods and lower rates by auto companies to reduce the cost burden per month. AAA says the average price in 2013 for a gallon of gas was $3.49, in 2014 at $3.34, in 2015 at $2.40. AAA says that 71% of gasoline stations sell gas at less than $2.00 in January 2016, and gas prices are likely to remain low for an extended period with lower demand from China, higher fuel efficiency going forward with stricter standards, new technology for shale oil production, and the replacement of cartel pricing by competing production from Saudis, Iran and Russia. On average Americans saved $115 billion on gasoline, or $550 per licensed driver, according to AAA's Daily Fuel Gauge Report of January 6, 2016. In addition to the $550 saved the higher fuel efficiency with new technology adds a corresponding amount to savings per driver. Add to this the lower payment at low rates over longer periods and the car payment per month has been reduced significantly in a improving job market, to support car sales....

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Decades of investment in car manufacturing and EV's is paying off for China. It now exports 5.7 million cars of which 1.7 million are EV's. EV exports are twice that of Germany. Car production capacity in China surged as the Chinese market expanded to be larger than Europe and the US combined. The production capacity is twice the size of the domestic market- 40 million gasoline cars from 100 factories.  As domestic sales have slowed down there is a push for exporting this excess capacity. The US and the EU are imposing tariffs on Chinese cars to protect their domestic manufacturing. The push to become a leader dates back to premier Wen Jiabao 20003-2013. Wen chose Audi engineer Wan Gang as minister of science and technology, and gave him the task of making China the leader in electric vehicles. Manufacturers were given subsidies, tax breaks, cheap land and electricity. By one estimate the EV manufacturers and battery makers in China received $230 billion in subsidies since 2009.  This is one reason the EU and the US are imposing tariffs to protect their domestic manufacturers. As the shift to EV's continues in China- half of the cars in 2024 EV's- the gasoline models are shipped overseas. China has now replaced the western brands in Russia with it's gasoline models.  China makes great savings in batteries as it controls the supply chain in batteries. It makes EV's at 30% lower cost with these efficiencies. ...

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Sharply lower consumer spending is hurting Apple sales in China. Apple cut sales and issued a sales warning in January 2019. This follows Apple's sharp slowdown in India with its uncompetitive pricing.

Retail sales growth in China- which bounced back in previous downturns- dropped to the lowest level in 15 years in November 2018. Auto sales are down with the sharpest drop in 7 years- the first annual drop in sales since 1990. Fears of a housing bubble have led to restrictions on home purchases for speculation which have not been lifted. Income tax reduction has not increased spending. GDP growth for the fourth quarter dropped to 6.4%.

Further signs of a sharp pullback are seen in the drop in consumption tax revenue falling by 61% in October and 71% in November 2018. The consumption tax is placed on cars, gasoline and luxury goods, and is paid by the companies making the products.

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Ford executes new strategy for reaching the younger first time buyers of small cars in India. The car is a hatchback called the Figo designed with the help of Indian engineers for the Indian and overseas markets. It has done a$500 million expansion of its plant in Chennai, India, doubling production to 200,000 vehicles ayear, and 250,000 diesel engines a year by 2010. Mullaly says: "literally India is designing the small car for the world." Separately Ford is building a new car plant in Chongquing, China, for 300,000 cars, midsize and suv's. The change is huge and dramatic for car production. CSM Worldwide predicts car sales in India 45% higher in 2011 compared to 2007, and 39% growth in China, 26% in Brazil. In contrast, car sales in North Americaand Europe will not have returned to 2007 levels by 2011. Considering declining levels in Japan and Germany sales may be on a slow downturn. See links to this. For instance Ford predits Ford's production in North America will decline to 35% of global production by 2015 from 54% in 1997. ...

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Xiaomi is China's leading brand. It is very different from other companies in China and America. It is tightly controlled by its founder Lei Jun who has built a loyal following for the brand  through fan clubs and creating an enthusiastic following. Because the firm is run by founder Lei Jun it can make quick decisions to enter a market. Lei Jun was a computer science student in Wuhan in 1987 as China opened up to the world.  By 2017- in three years from being zero in the Indian market place in 2014- Xiaomi had become the largest smartphone company in India. The company was launched in 2010. Profit margins are thin about 1% in a very competitive pricing market.  Metrics are based on revenue per user of $9 per user from an installed base of 190 million smartphone users, spending 54 minutes a day using Xiaomi's app, game and other services, or 20% of the phone use time. Revenue per user comes from advertising, and from commissions on the apps and games it sells to its user base. In 2015 Xiaomi had a loss, in 2016 sales dropped, in 2017 new products led to a resurgence in the market with sales increasing 68%. As Xiaomi goes into its IPO, experts say much of the $10 billion from the IPO could go into reinvestment as Xiaomi reinvents itself and moves into other internet business. ...

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Ford is facing a sales disaster in the China market after lagging in coming up with new models and falling behind in adopting new technology in the hyper competitive Chinese market. Sales dropped from 1.27 million vehicles in 2016 to 752,000 vehicles in 2018. In 2018 sales dropped by 37%, when the Chinese market declined by 3%. In 2019 the car market in China shrank by another 12% in the first half.  The problems stem from poor management. Alan Mulally started the China project, his successor from a Michigan furniture company CEO Jim Hackett was unable to grasp the challenges in China with new technology a key feature of keeping abreast of the Chinese market. A succession of new executives in China from U.S. or EUropean operations compounded the problem each group lacking the touch needed with local Chinese conditions. Some experts say Ford is now becoming irrelevant in the Chinese market after being a late starter in coming to China and then investing billions in a catch up effort. GM and VW started much earlier. Ford reported loss of $1.5 billion in 2018. From 5% in 2015 its market share dropped to 2.1% in first quarter 2019. Ford was complacent and applied a global strategy in China when local Chinese car companies were moving with lightning speed. Ford was asked to locate in the far interior of the country as a late comer to China and its partner Chang'an Auto was more concerned about keeping car jobs than introducing the latest technology and models. China is obsessed with new technology and there is no way Ford could be allowed to get away with outdated models. ...

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1.1 million EVs were sold in US in 2024, compared to 1.4 million hybrids. Hybrids have made a comeback as sales of electric cars are slowing in US in 2024. Constraints being lack of enough charging stations, price of electric cars still high, driving range limited before recharge. Hybrid car sales are surging helping Toyota after a too cautious entry into EV's. Now the Biden administration is looking at the targets and how to make the transition smoother. Toyota is pushing back on strict environmental rules that expect 67% of cars to be electric by 2032.  The 2021 executive order by president Biden was for 50% target by 2030 and this included hybrids.  The gradual shift would make it less costly for the public to replace the cars and help first time buyers wanting to try it out do this with hybrids as an option. As a quick guide 12000 pounds of carbon dioxide for global warming are given out by gasoline only cars, half or 6000 pounds by hybrids like Toyota's, and half again 3000 pounds of carbon dioxide by all electric like BYD China's or Tesla/GM/VW. The actual numbers are confirmed by Dept of Energy 2022, and MIT 2019 studies- 2727 pounds all electric, 6898 pounds hybrid, and 12594 pounds all gasoline. ...