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Thucydides, Greek historian on the Peloponnesian War between Sparta and Athens 431 BC, cited by Xi Jinping of China during DJT visit to China, May 2026. “Can China and the United States transcend the so-called ‘Thucydides Trap’ and forge a new paradigm for major-power relations?” "Thucydides Trap," is about one established power being threatened by another rising power, as Sparta felt threatened by a rising Athens in the Greek world around 431 BC, leading to a long over 30 years war.  “The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations,” Xi said, of Taiwan, an island near China's coast where ChiangKaishek set up his government after the fall of his government in Beijing in 1949 to Communist People's Army of Mao Zedong. “If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict, pushing the entire China-US relationship into a highly perilous situation."  What China sees is a future of strong economic growth based on China having built its industrial strength and world trade to exceed 1.2 trillion dollars of trade surplus in 2026. Yet this is only the beginning. US and European Union, and India+Japan are three economic regions compared to the situation in Greek history. The combined three economic regions potential for scientific and industrial advances in the future till 2045 in a synergistic fashion one building on top of the other's advances, far exceed the potential of the Chinese economy and industry by itself. This is why any such conflict may over time fizzle away as three economic regions of EU, US and India advance, particularly the 1.4 billion people of India, which will see growth rates of 20% annually for 10 years to 2035 in Eastern Indian region of the size of the EU. That region extends from Lucknow and Patna to Vizag and Chennai. Another aspect of this concerns China itself which sees slowing growth of 5% in 2026. Growth could slow further as US, European Union and India/Japan push back on Chinese exports during a period of reindustrialization in US, EU, Japan and rapid industrial development in India to 2040. China's development is only midway in terms of per capita GNP which lags most of Europe and the US, Japan. Thus the main concern in China is that China will not be able top go beyond middle income country as its demographics and aging population look more like Japan's over the period 2026-2040. China needs the US EU trade and markets for it to meet the needs and aspirations of its 1.4 billon people as the other engines of development such as housing construction, infrastructure building, have lost momentum. ...

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Declining agricultural exports and lower prices are expected to lead to U.S. net farm income dropping by 38% to $55.9 billion in 2015, according to the USDA. Importers such as Egypt and Japan can buy wheat in export markets at lower prices from France, Russia and other countries- U.S wheat going at $205 a ton, French wheat at $193 per ton, and Russian wheat at $194, according to grain analysts. Depreciating currencies in Russia and Eastern Europe mean sellers can sell in dollars and convert to local currencies.

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U.S. companies with international operations or exports are seeing lower profits in 2015 with the surge in the value of the dollar, as it approaches parity with the euro currency in a short period of time. At the same time the dollar has surged to 120 yen to the dollar. The currency shifts are part of a new global dynamic in which the eurozone and Japan increase competitiveness and exports to boost their economies, fend off deflation, and help return the global economy to a sustained growth phase. Aggressive bond buying and QE by the ECB is part of this new dynamic in the global economy.

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Sommer describes the effect of a strong dollar on Apple's sales and profits from iPhones worldwide. This in turn affects Apple's share price. Corporate profits in the U.S. declined by 5.1% in 2015, according to the Commerce Department. Between the last quarters of 2014 and 2015 every dollar of Apple sales was reduced by 15 cents when converted into dollars, according to CEO Tim Cook.

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DJT White House Cabinet Meetings: Susie Wiles in tight cursive, Bessent writes "parallel prosperity" and "blue collar boom," on notepad, Lutnick says "why not copper tariff," DJT talks about why he is not fond of windmills. All the time a picture of Abraham Lincoln in a small four person meeting around a round table watches everyone. You have to have some humor in cabinet meetings. DJT brings humor to the White House, lightening up the mood, while he says new letters will go out to Japan, South Korea and EU, recalcitrant nations when it comes to negotiations for agreements, and Putin is voicing meaningless platitudes on his desire for peace.

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Northwestern University has its federal funding  frozen. $790 million federal funds are frozen by the US government for toleration of anti-semitism on campus in 2024 and 2025. Northwestern cut a deal with protesters putting out anti-semitic slogans following an encampment, that was followed by other universities, says this WSJ report. This is not in the tradition of US universities and the Nation founded with the Christian faith that includes the Catholic, Protestant and Jewish faiths as one indivisible faith. Northwestern and others fail when new drug research leads to discoveries funded by federal dollars. Yet the universities get their portion of the return from the pharmaceutical companies, which then charge the average public exorbitant prices, making the universities complicit in the huge burdens placed on the American people. Similar to a Catholic Church  working with the nobles in feudal times- placing ever higher burdens on ordinary working people. Another issue is that universities are investing in new buildings, raising their prices, and operating as if they are unaccountable to the people, as young American men are being pushed away by high prices and foreign students are taking their places.   ...

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Feldstein wants to see a stronger dollar, that is less inflation eroding the value or purchasing power of the dollar at home. Abroad he wants to see a weaker dollar in relation to Europe, Japan and Canada where about half of US imports originate. And a weaker dollar in relation to lower wage Asian countries to improve America's trade balance. Better to do this now than to wait a few years when the adjustments needed would be greater. America needs to export more and import less to improve the trade balance. A competitive dollar in relation to trading partners in Europe and Asia would provide the improvement in the trade balance that the U.S. needs for keeping economic growth. With the risks to the economy from declining housing prices improving the trade balance becomes important. During the 1985-1988 period the dollar declined in value significantly, falling 37%, but the inflation rate averaged 3.1%,says Feldstein. This is what he means by having astrong dollar at home, which is to say not eroding its purchasing value, while at the same time increasing exports and reducing imports. During this period merchandise exports increased by 40% while imports increased at half that pace. A repeat of that experience is possible and necessary to maintain growth, according to Feldstein. See the link to McKinnon, at Stanford, The Yuan and the Greenback, WSJ, August 29, 2006, which cautions against anything but a very gradual and carefully managed appreciation of the yuan, giving importance to inflation and interest rate differentials between the US and China. One point to note narrowing of interest rate differentials between the US and China is seen as backdrop for dollar weakening on exchange rate basis. McKinnon appears to consider a smaller interest rate differential as a cue for an even lower appreciation of the yuan, see his example of 2% inflation in the US and 3% interest rates. Interestingly the two approaches may complement each other. Offering a perspective of China maintaining its growth and not risking deflation or slowdown, and of the US maintaining its growth and not risking a slowdown from the housing market collapse, by strong domestic investment and exports. How to keep both economies going may be the policymakers challenge for strong global economic growth....

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GE Vernova turbine maker Ford Motor and Dollar General retail replace Apple Tesla Google in stock market growth in June 2025. This is a healthy sign for the US economy.

Lower growth of 0.8% in the first two quarters was expected as the US recalibrates its position in the world economy as a manufacturing powerhouse. Inflation is moderate even with tariffs says Fed chairman Powell -close to 2.4-2.8 percent. Unemployment is low, with no layoffs and companies waiting to invest with the 3B Big Bold Beautiful Tax Cuts Bill provisions on expensing investments 100 percent provision. The attention is not on tariffs as agreements with UK will be followed by EU and Japan. Attention is on the Tax Cuts Bill compromise of Senate and House versions.

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Inflation is eroding African economies with about 28% in Ghana, and over 70% in Nigeria. The value of African currencies is declining against a strong dollar reducing imports of manufactured goods.

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For what a ruble buys in Russia , 2.7 times what a dollar buys in the US, Russia gets alot of bang out of its defense budget of $149 billion, about $401 billion (Purchasing power) compared to US $997 billion. Add to this Russia is now a war economy in the war with Ukraine and concentrates its forces in one theatre not four as the US spread out over Indo-Pacific, Europe and Middle East and Korean peninsula. This is the reason behind most of DJT's actions reflecting realities in defense. Shut down the Middle East theatre which is also what the American people want by moving everything in the direction of economic progress, turning down the revolutionary and sectarian ideologies that roiled Egypt of Suez, Iraq and Syria, Afghanistan and Pakistan in the 60's and dragged the world into costly insane wars. And do this with the consensus of Russia, China and India. Wind down the war in Europe- accept the Russians as a Northern European power with a settlement of the Ukraine conflict, and let Germany lead Europe's defense. Manage the relationship in the Indo-Pacific with India and South and Southwest Asian investments in economic infrastructure that will offset China's rapid growth of the last three decades by incentivizing South Asia and South western Asia parts of which were called the Middle East by the Britons and now can be rengaged in the South /Southwest Asian group of nations led by the US. This is the policy for the next 25 years to 2050 that a Russia, Germany, US, China, India consensus sees as a constructive future for the people of the world.   ...

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EV makers in US offer about $5000 in discounts to replace $7500 lost in government EV tax credits. The hurdle for electric vehicles is the lack of charging infrastructure and the cost of home chargers, in addition to the limited range in miles. The big jump in inflation centered not just on groceries in 2019-2024, there was a 34% increase in the cost of new cars and 50% increase for used cars, and a jump in maintenance costs. Reducing affordability for young people and making car ownership costlier. This turned into a cost of living crisis with groceries up 31%, that affected people's enthusiasm for climate change action when China was building one coal plant a week (adding 95 GW in 2024)- underlying the need to provide immediate relief to American working families and elderly through tax cuts, benefits and shifting tax dollars from climate change action to working families in the next 4 years. This is the approach taken under the DJT One Big Beautiful Act of 2025. Basically what the DJT side of the story is on emissions- US has only 12% of global greenhouse gas emissions, cut this by half to 6% and assuming the EU which has 6% of gas emissions also cuts by half to 3%, the saving just 9%  while the 82% of emitters China, India, Russia and Brazil etc not making the cuts needed the impact on climate change is not significant. If China and India want relief US working families also need relief.  ...

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A study by Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department in the Feb. 2013 Bank of Japan Review paper titled "About the Real Effective Exchange Rate," shows how Japan maintained international price competitiveness during the period of the strong yen at 80 to the dollar. It found that with deflation the cost inputs of labor, factory equipment and materials in Japan were reduced, even as the price in overseas markets for finished products went up. It found that while the yen went up against the dollar in nominal terms, in price adjusted terms accounting for deflation it has actually fallen. Nomura economist Kiuchi says the Japanese yen had to go to 54 to the dollar before it matched the level of the 1995 priceadjusted high of 79 to the dollar.

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DOGE's Musk led effort puts important work of savings  to make the dollars be spent wisely and prudently, at risk from the style of Elon Musk. Pew Research found earlier in February that 57% of people had "unfavorable" views of Musk, and 37% had "very unfavorable" views of Musk. Musk's style is prone to publicity and showmanship compared to the need for hard patient work needed over many months and years to root out corruption and waste. Lyrarc draws a parallel between DJT efforts to cut waste and fraud, unnecessary spending in 2025 after trillions of dollars in Biden approved spending, with the efforts in 1941 of the Truman Committee to keep a wary eye for waste and fraud in the billions of dollars of wartime spending. The major difference is that the Truman Committee had the support across the aisle from all Americans and Congress and it involved hard patient work 1944-46 under Senator Mead of New York. 1946-47 under Kilgore from Wisconsin, 1947-1948 under Brewster a Republican from Maine, for the better part of a decade. Truman Committee set up the War Production Board and cut waste and corruption. In 1948 Truman Committee was made permanent as the Subcommittee for Investigation into Governmental Affairs. ...

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The Senate Big Beautiful Bill $6000 per person deduction makes Social Security tax free for 88% of Americans over 65 years. This is close as one can get to making Social Security benefits tax free for people over 65 years. It is a move that is seen favorably by social security recipients. Protecting the elderly on fixed incomes when the cost of living went up 12% in just 1 year in 2022 is an essential step for any administration that cares for the daily lives of the American people. In this sense the DJT administration has made a bold move in three key areas no taxes on social security benefits, no taxes on tips which address employment in hospitality/restaurants, and doubling the child care benefit for mothers, tackling key population sectors. To pay for this and keep the deficits down the dollar strong, one other action was taken- to increase investment in the economy and in manufacturing by allowing expensing of investment 100%. Fed chairman Powell repeatedly states he is very optimistic about this action generating the kind of investment boom American needs to restore good standards of living.   ...

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Toyota reported a 77% drop in earnings in the first quarter of 2011, with a large loss in the Japanese operations. The strong yen trading at 81 yen to the dollar is a significant factor. And for the first time Toyota's CFO Satoshi Ozawa said "we have reached the limits of profitable Japan based production at 80 yen to the dollar." Japanese operatios lost $2.4 billion. Honda reported a 38% drop in earnings for the 1st quarter.

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Krugman points out the risks for the U.S. economy as the U.S. loses export competitiveness with the euro reaching parity with the dollar. The huge shift from $1.50 to the dollar at one point to parity gives Europe a sudden strong boost. Europe needs the boost to escape a deflationary trap, and there is little that can be done for capital flows and exchange rates, says Krugman. He points out that many Federal Reserve governors were clueless of the impact this could have on U.S. growth, sanguinely assuming the U.S. would boost growth in 2015. Better says Krugman for the Fed to be very careful about raising rates at a time when wage growth is sluggish, and inflation low.

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Feldstein sees the need for some kind of tax cut in 2008 that would be triggered by increase in unemployment. He advocates further decreases in interest rates by the Fed in 2008. He doesn't see much relief for subprime borrowers. The doollar in his view is still overly strong and a lower dollar would help the US reduce its trade deficit by stimulating exports even further.

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Overall America's Infrastructure gets only a C grade- but that is the best grade since 1998 so badly has the Nation's infrastructure been neglected under Clinton-Bush-Obama.  Bridges, broadband, drinking water systems, hazardous waste treatment, inland waterways, public parks and solid waste received grades of C+, C or C–, mediocre condition needs attention. Dams, levees, roads, schools and infrastructure for aviation, energy, storm water, transit and wastewater get grades of D+ or D, poor condition. Ports get a B, Rail gets a B- dropping a notch, and Energy get a D grade in this report on US infrastructure by the US Society of Civil Engineers. It comes out every four years. The shortfall in infrastructure spending- $3.7 trillion. This after the $1.2 trillion Biden Infrastructure bill made a real difference since 2021. Grades have improved on half of the 18 categories this report tracks. “Better infrastructure is an efficient investment of taxpayer dollars that results in a stronger economy and prioritizes American jobs.” Darren Olson, chair of the committee on infrastructure of the Society of Civil Engineers. "The investment levels that we saw under the last administration have really started to move the needle, and we’re looking forward to advancing that conversation as we move into this administration.”- Kristina Swallow, president of the Society of Civil Engineers ...

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“We will make sure our tax dollars support healthy foods. We will scrutinize the chemical additives in our food supply. We will remove the financial conflicts of interest in our agencies.” RFK Jr. tells the Senate Finance Committee in describing his plans to Make America Health Again. The president DJT signs an Executive Order setting up a Commission to Make America Healthy Again to look into the dismal health of Americans where 40% of children suffer from chronic diseases and about 80% of Americans are not fit for military service. RFK Jr. plans to break the grip of the pharmaceutical industry and the packaged foods industry has on America's health that produces these dismal outcomes, and the lack of education on health that leads to unhealthy foods and chemicals ruining the food supply. For this he has the support of many Senators including Rand Paul (Kentucky) and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin). Ron Johnson even said at hearings that RFK Jr who is supported by millions of moms and parents, is an answer to his fervent prayers. “We will create an honest, unbiased, science-driven HHS, accountable to the president, to Congress, and to the American people.” ...