LyrArc Article Gist
Declining agricultural exports and lower prices are expected to lead to U.S. net farm income dropping by 38% to $55.9 billion in 2015, according to the USDA. Importers such as Egypt and Japan can buy wheat in export markets at lower prices from France, Russia and other countries- U.S wheat going at $205 a ton, French wheat at $193 per ton, and Russian wheat at $194, according to grain analysts. Depreciating currencies in Russia and Eastern Europe mean sellers can sell in dollars and convert to local currencies.

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. companies with international operations or exports are seeing lower profits in 2015 with the surge in the value of the dollar, as it approaches parity with the euro currency in a short period of time. At the same time the dollar has surged to 120 yen to the dollar. The currency shifts are part of a new global dynamic in which the eurozone and Japan increase competitiveness and exports to boost their economies, fend off deflation, and help return the global economy to a sustained growth phase. Aggressive bond buying and QE by the ECB is part of this new dynamic in the global economy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Sommer describes the effect of a strong dollar on Apple's sales and profits from iPhones worldwide. This in turn affects Apple's share price. Corporate profits in the U.S. declined by 5.1% in 2015, according to the Commerce Department. Between the last quarters of 2014 and 2015 every dollar of Apple sales was reduced by 15 cents when converted into dollars, according to CEO Tim Cook.

LyrArc Article Gist
Feldstein wants to see a stronger dollar, that is less inflation eroding the value or purchasing power of the dollar at home. Abroad he wants to see a weaker dollar in relation to Europe, Japan and Canada where about half of US imports originate. And a weaker dollar in relation to lower wage Asian countries to improve America's trade balance. Better to do this now than to wait a few years when the adjustments needed would be greater. America needs to export more and import less to improve the trade balance. A competitive dollar in relation to trading partners in Europe and Asia would provide the improvement in the trade balance that the U.S. needs for keeping economic growth. With the risks to the economy from declining housing prices improving the trade balance becomes important. During the 1985-1988 period the dollar declined in value significantly, falling 37%, but the inflation rate averaged 3.1%,says Feldstein. This is what he means by having astrong dollar at home, which is to say not eroding its purchasing value, while at the same time increasing exports and reducing imports. During this period merchandise exports increased by 40% while imports increased at half that pace. A repeat of that experience is possible and necessary to maintain growth, according to Feldstein. See the link to McKinnon, at Stanford, The Yuan and the Greenback, WSJ, August 29, 2006, which cautions against anything but a very gradual and carefully managed appreciation of the yuan, giving importance to inflation and interest rate differentials between the US and China. One point to note narrowing of interest rate differentials between the US and China is seen as backdrop for dollar weakening on exchange rate basis. McKinnon appears to consider a smaller interest rate differential as a cue for an even lower appreciation of the yuan, see his example of 2% inflation in the US and 3% interest rates. Interestingly the two approaches may complement each other. Offering a perspective of China maintaining its growth and not risking deflation or slowdown, and of the US maintaining its growth and not risking a slowdown from the housing market collapse, by strong domestic investment and exports. How to keep both economies going may be the policymakers challenge for strong global economic growth....

LyrArc Article Gist
Inflation is eroding African economies with about 28% in Ghana, and over 70% in Nigeria. The value of African currencies is declining against a strong dollar reducing imports of manufactured goods.

LyrArc Article Gist
A study by Bank of Japan's Research and Statistics Department in the Feb. 2013 Bank of Japan Review paper titled "About the Real Effective Exchange Rate," shows how Japan maintained international price competitiveness during the period of the strong yen at 80 to the dollar. It found that with deflation the cost inputs of labor, factory equipment and materials in Japan were reduced, even as the price in overseas markets for finished products went up. It found that while the yen went up against the dollar in nominal terms, in price adjusted terms accounting for deflation it has actually fallen. Nomura economist Kiuchi says the Japanese yen had to go to 54 to the dollar before it matched the level of the 1995 priceadjusted high of 79 to the dollar.

LyrArc Article Gist
DOGE's Musk led effort puts important work of savings  to make the dollars be spent wisely and prudently, at risk from the style of Elon Musk. Pew Research found earlier in February that 57% of people had "unfavorable" views of Musk, and 37% had "very unfavorable" views of Musk. Musk's style is prone to publicity and showmanship compared to the need for hard patient work needed over many months and years to root out corruption and waste. Lyrarc draws a parallel between DJT efforts to cut waste and fraud, unnecessary spending in 2025 after trillions of dollars in Biden approved spending, with the efforts in 1941 of the Truman Committee to keep a wary eye for waste and fraud in the billions of dollars of wartime spending. The major difference is that the Truman Committee had the support across the aisle from all Americans and Congress and it involved hard patient work 1944-46 under Senator Mead of New York. 1946-47 under Kilgore from Wisconsin, 1947-1948 under Brewster a Republican from Maine, for the better part of a decade. Truman Committee set up the War Production Board and cut waste and corruption. In 1948 Truman Committee was made permanent as the Subcommittee for Investigation into Governmental Affairs. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Toyota reported a 77% drop in earnings in the first quarter of 2011, with a large loss in the Japanese operations. The strong yen trading at 81 yen to the dollar is a significant factor. And for the first time Toyota's CFO Satoshi Ozawa said "we have reached the limits of profitable Japan based production at 80 yen to the dollar." Japanese operatios lost $2.4 billion. Honda reported a 38% drop in earnings for the 1st quarter.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out the risks for the U.S. economy as the U.S. loses export competitiveness with the euro reaching parity with the dollar. The huge shift from $1.50 to the dollar at one point to parity gives Europe a sudden strong boost. Europe needs the boost to escape a deflationary trap, and there is little that can be done for capital flows and exchange rates, says Krugman. He points out that many Federal Reserve governors were clueless of the impact this could have on U.S. growth, sanguinely assuming the U.S. would boost growth in 2015. Better says Krugman for the Fed to be very careful about raising rates at a time when wage growth is sluggish, and inflation low.

LyrArc Article Gist
Feldstein sees the need for some kind of tax cut in 2008 that would be triggered by increase in unemployment. He advocates further decreases in interest rates by the Fed in 2008. He doesn't see much relief for subprime borrowers. The doollar in his view is still overly strong and a lower dollar would help the US reduce its trade deficit by stimulating exports even further.

LyrArc Article Gist
Overall America's Infrastructure gets only a C grade- but that is the best grade since 1998 so badly has the Nation's infrastructure been neglected under Clinton-Bush-Obama.  Bridges, broadband, drinking water systems, hazardous waste treatment, inland waterways, public parks and solid waste received grades of C+, C or C–, mediocre condition needs attention. Dams, levees, roads, schools and infrastructure for aviation, energy, storm water, transit and wastewater get grades of D+ or D, poor condition. Ports get a B, Rail gets a B- dropping a notch, and Energy get a D grade in this report on US infrastructure by the US Society of Civil Engineers. It comes out every four years. The shortfall in infrastructure spending- $3.7 trillion. This after the $1.2 trillion Biden Infrastructure bill made a real difference since 2021. Grades have improved on half of the 18 categories this report tracks. “Better infrastructure is an efficient investment of taxpayer dollars that results in a stronger economy and prioritizes American jobs.” Darren Olson, chair of the committee on infrastructure of the Society of Civil Engineers. "The investment levels that we saw under the last administration have really started to move the needle, and we’re looking forward to advancing that conversation as we move into this administration.”- Kristina Swallow, president of the Society of Civil Engineers ...

LyrArc Article Gist
“We will make sure our tax dollars support healthy foods. We will scrutinize the chemical additives in our food supply. We will remove the financial conflicts of interest in our agencies.” RFK Jr. tells the Senate Finance Committee in describing his plans to Make America Health Again. The president DJT signs an Executive Order setting up a Commission to Make America Healthy Again to look into the dismal health of Americans where 40% of children suffer from chronic diseases and about 80% of Americans are not fit for military service. RFK Jr. plans to break the grip of the pharmaceutical industry and the packaged foods industry has on America's health that produces these dismal outcomes, and the lack of education on health that leads to unhealthy foods and chemicals ruining the food supply. For this he has the support of many Senators including Rand Paul (Kentucky) and Ron Johnson (Wisconsin). Ron Johnson even said at hearings that RFK Jr who is supported by millions of moms and parents, is an answer to his fervent prayers. “We will create an honest, unbiased, science-driven HHS, accountable to the president, to Congress, and to the American people.” ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Japan's new LDP prime minister, Shinzo Abe, supports targeting the yen at around 90 yen to the dollar to support Japanese exporters. He sees this happening through monetary easing by Japan's central bank. At a rate of 85 yen to the dollar or above Japanese exporters would be in a position to become profitable and pay taxes. Abe says central banks around the world, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, are printing money to support their economies and increase exports. Switzerland and S. Korea pursued policies to keep their currencies from becoming too strong to support their exporters. China has managed its exchange rate to maintain export competitiveness. Exchange rate intervention has not been effective for Japan, and the focus now is on monetary policy and setting a 2% inflation rate target.

LyrArc Article Gist
Republican orthodoxy means Republican platforms and policy calls for less government which goes against the facts on the ground and the needs of the Nation, and the People. This WSJ report shows Republican counties are more dependent on government aid by a factor of 10 to 1 compared to Democratic counties, and this is increasing every 4 years since 2000. It was 1 to 1 in 2000 and went up to 1 to 5 by 2016 and accelerated since to 1 to 10. Why is this important? It is important because as is true also for the trillions of dollars of funds allocated in the Biden legislation in the Inflation Reduction Act, for Infrastructure, and for Chips and Science. Much of this funding goes to Republican states and counties. Not just in this but in environment regulation for health this vastly benefits Republican counties as shown in the WSJ exclusive below on Mooresville, NC, on coal ash cancer causing soil fillers use in the wealthiest suburbs.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A former Merrill Lynch banker is shown by WSJ responsible for economic actions leading to economic meltdown in Lebanon. Lebanese currency is worth 2% in relation to the dollar and no state supplied electricity.  For most of the modern period since 1800 this part of the world has represented a place of tranquillity and rule of law. The story of the economic collapse of Lebanon as a result of unscruplous finance at the central bank leading to arrrest of Riad Salameh is told in WSJ. It acts as a reminder and warning that once tranquil places can be dislocated and turned upside down by allowing unscruplous financial dealings in the economic affairs of a Nation, putting too much trust in finance or finance professionals. Trust is easily subverted once placed by the People. It can happen in any part of the world.  It can happen in developed nations as happened during the 2009 financial crisis. A finance professional governor of the central bank of Sri Lanka raised borrowing costs with a unscruplous bond auction in 2005 leading to higher borrowing costs and bankrupting the country. This results in the familiar guardrails for democracy and rule of law collapsing in unpredictable ways leading to disaster.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
DJT White House Cabinet Meetings: Susie Wiles in tight cursive, Bessent writes "parallel prosperity" and "blue collar boom," on notepad, Lutnick says "why not copper tariff," DJT talks about why he is not fond of windmills. All the time a picture of Abraham Lincoln in a small four person meeting around a round table watches everyone. You have to have some humor in cabinet meetings. DJT brings humor to the White House, lightening up the mood, while he says new letters will go out to Japan, South Korea and EU, recalcitrant nations when it comes to negotiations for agreements, and Putin is voicing meaningless platitudes on his desire for peace.

LyrArc Article Gist
Rachel Ensign's WSJ report shows huge disparity in incomes and spending that has happened in the US even with the best efforts and intentions of the Biden administration in 2020-2024. US cumulative excess savings by income for the bottom 90% are a mere $291 billion compared to $1.2 trillion for the top 10%, 4 times as large. As a result about half of consumer spending comes from the top 10% in incomes says the WSJ. (Moody's Analytics). It provides clues on why Biden and even less so Harris failed to convince Americans, the middle class, blue collar workers, and others that large social gaps, income disparities and wealth disparities gap were being bridged under Democrats. And makes it harder for Republicans and Democrats alike to address such huge gaps built up over time by outshoring jobs and manufacturing, the 2009 financial crisis from banks speculation, the pandemic and supply shock cost of living crisis. As the $2.6 trillion in pandemic assistance from Biden faded people in the bottom 80% dipped into savings to pay for rising cost of living as supply chain bottlenecks and price gouging sent prices of groceries, housing, apartment rentals, cars up significantly. This has'nt happened to the top 10% or even the top 20% who continue to spend in the same way as before prices went up. Something like this is also happening in Europe and in China, India fueling and anti-incumbency mood, and dissatisfaction with governments. The Net Worth of the top 20% has grown by 45% or $35 trillion since 2019 compared to $14 trillion for the bottom 80%. (Moody's Analytics) ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Northwestern University has its federal funding  frozen. $790 million federal funds are frozen by the US government for toleration of anti-semitism on campus in 2024 and 2025. Northwestern cut a deal with protesters putting out anti-semitic slogans following an encampment, that was followed by other universities, says this WSJ report. This is not in the tradition of US universities and the Nation founded with the Christian faith that includes the Catholic, Protestant and Jewish faiths as one indivisible faith. Northwestern and others fail when new drug research leads to discoveries funded by federal dollars. Yet the universities get their portion of the return from the pharmaceutical companies, which then charge the average public exorbitant prices, making the universities complicit in the huge burdens placed on the American people. Similar to a Catholic Church  working with the nobles in feudal times- placing ever higher burdens on ordinary working people. Another issue is that universities are investing in new buildings, raising their prices, and operating as if they are unaccountable to the people, as young American men are being pushed away by high prices and foreign students are taking their places.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Narendra Modi of India visits Poland and Ukraine after visiting Moscow, the only leader to do so and who can talk to both sides, and who believes resolution of the Ukraine can only come outside of the battlefield. After a once in a century pandemic, and with the poor countries of Africa, Asia and Latin America needing trillions of dollars to rebuild their economies, the idea of war in Ukraine adding additional stress to billions of people all over the world, stressing food supplies, supply chains and cost of living, is unacceptable for Modi. He has made this clear to Putin in Moscow during his visit and is likely to do the same in Kviv, to create the conditions for bringing peace to this region and relieve world tensions, help rebuild after the pandemic.