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German chancellor, Angela Merkel, appeals to members of the Christian Democratic Party to support the European project at a party convention in Leipzig on November 14, 2011. "We live in times of epic change. Our political compass has not changed. But the context is constantly changing," said Merkel. The 2 day convention used the motto: "For Europe. For Germany." Her message was that it will take years of hard work to fix the crisis and yet this has created an opportunity to put the European project on a sounder footing. Finance Minister Schauble put it succintly as he supported Merkel's appeal: "We now need to build the political union in Europe we never managed to build in the 90's." This comes as changes are taking place in Europe with new unity governments being formed in Greece by Mario Monti, a former EU commissioner, and in Greece by Papdemos, another EU official. And it comes as a head of Italy's central bank, Mario Draghi, who had pushed for stricter controls on spending by the Italian government, is now the head of the European Central Bank. Merkel also hit on the theme of a stricter financial union, and the need for courage to change the treaty underlying the European monetary union to allow strong, automatic sanctions for violations of the treaty. She also emphasized that the government had ruled out issuance of eurobonds that makes the EU as a whole responsible for the debt of individual countries. On that point she said: "Everywhere we look we find behaviour that cannot go on for long. Everywhere people are living as if there is no tomorrow."...

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There are some major problems in the American jobs market which suggest a long drawn out effort to reduce the high unemployment rate. One is the divergence between the vacancies that are developing and the rate at which firms are filling these vacancies. With vacancies remaining, unfilled and firms remaining cautious about the economic outlook and leery of hiring, the increase in economic output or GDP growth of 3% expected on the optimistic side in 2011 is not translating into lower unemployment. Structural problems are causing a great deal of difficulty in reducing the jobless rate. The recession hit manufacturing and construction very hard. And those who worked in these industries are not those with the skills and training to take up jobs in health care and education or other similiar fields- here skill mismatches are the problem. Geographic factors and the property prices drop are creating additional barriers. About 25% of mortgage borrowers owe more than their property is worth, and their are fewer buyers in regions with depressed job prospects like Michigan. There is a large increase in long term unemployment- over 27 weeks. Those out of work for more than 6 months see their skiils, job connections and confidence erode. A Brookings Institution paper estimates that this rise in long term unemployment by itself can cause labor market recovery to take twice as long as after the 1982 recession under Reagan, when unemployment reached a high of 10.8% and took 2 years to get back to 7.5%. Add to this the fact that a lot of jobs were lost in 2008 and 2009, with a six percentage increase in unemployment in a short period unmatched by anything since the Great Depression, with long term unemployed reaching 6.5 millon or nearly half of the total. And the 3% growth rate estimated by the government is anything but certain. It is questioned by the IMF as a stretch. This does not take into account the problems in the banking sector, as home equity loans gone bad show up on their balance sheets in latter part of 2010. According to a CreditSights report (see the US economy in 2010 in Group search for more information on this) with estimated losses of $33 billion. A struggling banking sector and tighter credit will add a structural dimension from the banking sector to the wobbly hiring. The "muddle through" approach to banking problems of the Obama administration in tackling bank's bad debt will continue to pose risks....

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The joint statement after the G-8 summit stated that "our imperative is to promote growth and jobs." It stated the budget deficits need to be addressed but said "spending cuts must "take into account countries' evolving economic conditions and underpin confidence and economy recovery." Germany's Merkel in her remarks said growth and deficit reduction supported each other, that "we have to work on both paths, and the participants have made clear, and I think this is great progress." Opposition Social Democrats in Germany say Ms. Merkel is adept at changing as the situation changes, and it appears Merkel is making the transition away from strict austerity policies she had championed earlier. Especially now with fresh elections in France, Netherlands and Greece, and the election of Francois Hollande on a pro-growth platform, the German position of strict austerity is being increasingly questioned on all sides. French president Hollande met U.S. president Obama at a pre-arranged meeting prior to the summit. Obama and Hollande see the need to reduce high unemployment in the U.S. and Europe by encouraging growth, creating a common interest....

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Experts say about 110,000 votes separate Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in the three states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania that decided the 2016 presidential election in the U.S. giving Trump the win. Post election reflection in the Democratic party points to a disconnect between the establishment in both parties and the white working class. It is described as something that was not thought enough about even though as pointed out in Lyrarc, and in The Washington Post by columnists, and in news coverage about the inequality movement long before Bernie Sanders appeared in 2015. In the period when banks were favored over millions of homeowners facing foreclosure in 2010-2014, the surging stock market and the zero to to half percent interest on savings that hurt savings of most of the working class and lower middle class without stock investments, and the continuing problems in communities facing job losses from trade for the third decade. The hollowing out of the regions in Ontario from job losses from the Canadian industry helped Justin Trudeau win the Canadian election. In this election it helped Trump in crucial midwestern states, combined with a degree of indifference shown by establishment Democrats. Former Vermont governor Howard Dean is planning to run for chairman of the Democratic National Committee. Bernie Sanders says he backs Minnesota Rep. Keith Ellison to be the next chair of the DNC. Jeff Weaver, campaign manager for Sanders, says the problem lies in what has been clear for some time now "that the centrist wing of the democratic party has no standing with working class and middle class  voters in this country." In 2016 only 51% of union households supported Clinton the lowest since 1980, 43% supported Trump. Obama won 59% of union households in 2008 and 58% in 2012 to 40% for Republican Romney. Trump picked up 3% of union households, Clinton lost 7% of union households, creating about a 10 point gap that would be magnified in industrial states where union jobs are concentrated, for about 18% of the people who voted in the election, enough to create the shortfall in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsyslvania. Fed chairman Janet Yellen pointed out the problems at an Inequality conference in Boston in 2014, pretty stark in its reminder that inequality had surged to levels not seen since the depression of the thirties, with 62 million households having a net worth of $11,000. Krugman and other economists had pointed this out on the pages of the NYT. Yet the post election reflection in the media is as if this is some special insight when it was clear for all to see, and covered in depth in Lyrarc for years since 2008. There is voter fatigue after 8 years of one party in power as pointed out by Obama campaign strategist, David Axelrod. The loss of union enthusiasm made the task of  a third term for the Democratic party even more difficult.     ...

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Mr. Chatzis is being forced to choose between paying a $372 real estate tax bill to keep his lights on, and paying for his wife's medicines on a $720 a month pension. Under new laws Greece now incorporates new property tax bills in the electricity bills ordinary Greeks receive. He says he cannot pay this. This was added as part of conditions agreed to by Greece for aid from the EU. Ordinary Greeks have paid real estate taxes in the past when they bought or sold property, and paid much lower taxes yearly to municipalities- about $133 yearly for Mr. Chatzis. The new tax means he will have to pay an additional $372 for the next two years. The new tax is added to electricity bills from the government owned electricity company to ensure payment. The tax makes no exceptions for the elderly or the unemployed. It is based on square footage, age of the building, and average value of the neighborhood, and has no relation to income. The feeling in Athens is that of growing resentment. Union workers have occupied the electric company's billing center, and the power company is holding off on electricity cutoff notices till the government decides. ...

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Beer made from locally grown cassava and other ingredients and government tax incentives is making it possible for SABMiller and other large beer companies to make low priced beers for the African market. African governments such as Kenya have eliminated excise taxes on low priced beer, and the production of locally made Senator beer by Diageo's East Africa Breweries is increasing rapidly in East Africa. SABMiller makes low priced beer brands in Ghana, Uganda and other countries. The government sees this as a way to reduce the consumption of locally brewed beers of poor quality, and a source of revenues. Health workers expect an increase in health problems as a result of increasing consumption of low priced beer. Obesity is amajor problem in S. Africa and in other African countries. This will have effects in the higher rate of diabetes and other diseases related to obesity. Alcohol consumption in Africa per person is about 10 liters of alcoholic beverages a year, with consumption at 70 liters in S. Africa, the country with the highest rate of obesity. The figures globally are 35 liters, and 91 liters in the U.S., another country with high rates of obesity and diabetes, according to 2011 figures from Euromonitor. ...

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In a Diwali tradition a visit by prime minister Modi to the Border areas in the Himalayas and in Rajasthan over the years including this one at Kargil in 2022 as shown in a You Tube video.

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Thre drug companies are placing bets on the vaccine business. Johnson and Johnson paid 302 million euros for 18% of Dutch biotech company Crucell NV, to jointly develop vaccines. Abbott Labs says it will acquire a unit of Belgian conglomerate Solvay SA for 4.5 billion euros in adeal that includes a vaccine business. And Merck obtained the marketing rights for a seasonal flu vaccine from Australia's CSL Ltd. This follows Pfizer's Wyeth acquisition. Low prices, high costs and fear of lawsuits made most drug makers to exit the business in the 1980's and 1990's. Now vaccine sales are growing faster than other prescription drugs and are largely protected from generic competition. And government agencies here in the USA and around the world are reliable buyers of vaccines as they seek to stockpile medicines that could be needed in aflu outbreak. Merck never exit the vaccine business and now makes 8 of 10 vaccines recommended for adults. Flu and other vaccines are especially attractive for entering drug markets in Brazil and China and developing countries. Governments lke the idea of lowcost prevention at $10 adose, and with this new relationships are developed in these countries. And even at price of $10 or $20 a dose they provide asteady stream of revenue.Vaccines are estimated to generate $21.5 billion in revenues by 2012 according to Sanofi-Aventis SA, which is a leading vaccine maker....

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Women feel overwhelmed with housework during the pandemic. About 80% of women feel responsible for house work compared to 28% of men, according to a NYU and U Penn study. On average women do one and half times the house chores compared to men. This difference is wider when looking at households where men do very little of the housework. The author of "Fair Play" a book about dividing housework says women are burned out, stressed and full of rage about the way household chores are handled. The pandemic has seen a further deterioration in the amount of time men spend doing household chores, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, creating a situation of tension. As men have worked from home during the pandemic the once invisible labor of women is now in plain sight. For women who have quit their jobs and looking for a way to get back to work there is an additional element of frustration. WSJ looks at ways in which men can make the changes to create a healthier situation at home, and reduce the tension. ...

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On June 30, 2008, oil prices hit an high of $140. Because of the opaqueness of the oil futures markets that help set the price of oil, very little is known about the different players in that market. Because of increasing demands for public scrutiny of such spikes in the market and its effect on the economy, the CFTC has released information about the players in oil trading and futures markets. This list for the period when the prices reached $140 in June 2008 include banks, hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, pension funds, private investment arms of wealthy individuals, and airlines. Investments related to million barrels of oil were made by 219 investors. The banks include: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley which have played a role in oil markets for a long time. BP and Delta Air Lines as users of oil products. It includes Yale University endowment fund, Singapore's government, hedge funds Brevan Howard and D.E. Shaw & Co., pension funds for Texas teachers, Cascade Investment LLC (the investment firm of Bill Gates), and the Danish pension fund ATP....

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Faces in the continuing foreclosure crisis in Spain in 2014 include Xacobo Rodriguez and his mother in Madrid. Foreclosures continued at a high rate in Spain into 2014. The Bank of Spain reports that 38,961 primary residence homes were foreclosed in 2013, a decline of only 1% from 2012. If second residences are included the number of foreclosed house increased by 11% in 2014. This is six years into the housing crisis in Spain with no end in sight. The government has declared a 2 year moratorium on eviction of families that meet hardship criteria- a member of household disabled, expired unemployment benefits, very young children. A Social Housing Fund with 6000 units which provide places to live was created but only a small number of units are given out so far. The social advocacy groups say not enough is being done. The government points out that 90% of houses taken by banks were unoccupied at the time. Bank Association spokesperson says there is an understanding of the depth of the crisis with 6 million people out of work, that action is taken to reduce the stress on homeowners. And point to the data showing only 1% of homes were taken by banks in 2013 of the 6 million home mortages outstanding, with one third of these done with an agreement to have debts erased for the homeowners. Women and immigrants are affected to a larger degree, according to Human Rights Watch. Social housing in Spain is only about 2% of the housing stock making things more difficult, by comparison it is 17% in France, 21% in the UK, 35% in the Netherlands, according to Human Rights Watch. Meanwhile the Spanish government of the Partido Popular under Mr Rajoy, continues a policy of trying to be responsive to the homeowner crisis, and at the same time helping the banking system recover following a $56 billion bailout loan taken by Spain from the European Union. ...

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The close ties developed in the postwar years between Japan and Boeing. Japanese suppliers supplied 16% of the 767 model in 1982, growing to 21% in 1995. By 2011 with the 787 Dreamliner Japan's role had increased to 35%. ANA and JAL almost exclusively use Boeing planes, shutting out Airbus from the Japanese market. New upstart airlines are beginning to order from Airbus. The Japanese government also supports suppliers of Boeing in Japan. Employment is also a consideration as 43% of employment in Japan's aviation industry is linked to Boeing. The battery on the Dreamliner 787 is supplied by Kyoto based GS Yuasa Corp., and Kanto Aircraft Instrument Company near Tokyo makes the circuit board that runs the battery. Battery related fires have led to grounding of 17 Dreamliners operated by ANA and 7 Dreamliners of JAL airlines in Japan. All Nippon Airways is the first and largest operator of the new Dreamliner aircraft. So tight is the relationship that Airbus has in total about 44 planes flying in Japan, with newer airlines such as Skymark expected to use the new Airbus A380 superjumbo aircraft in 2014. ANA and JAL typically do not bargain hard on pricing with Boeing because this supports Japanese manufacturers. ANA managers say it was involved in the design of the jet, including the use of a durable Japan made paint. In the 1990's Boeing studied Japanese manufacturing methods to improve work on its assembly lines, which goes on till today....

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Many individual Britishers hold accounts in Icelandic banks that went bust and some being propped up by the Icelandic government like the Kaupthing bank and other banks like Icesave. The Britishers individual accounts are worth billions of dollars and the British government has guaranteed that individual British account holders will be compensated fully. To recover some of this money the British government had to seize the assets of British branches of Icelandic banks. How it did this is interesting. Britain used a 2001 antiterrorism law to freeze the British assets of Kaupthing bank. Alistair Darling defended this by saying that Iceland had indicated that it had no intention of paying the British account holders. So now the British Treasury Department's home page lists Iceland as a terrorist state after N. Korea, Sudan, and Al Quaeda. Under European regulations Iceland is obligated to pay 20,000 euros to each individual account holder in Icesave, but that amount would require paying $5 billion at the new collapsed exchange rate or 60% of Iceland's GDP. Iceland's economy has collapsed and interest rate is 18%, krona down 44%. Its foreign minister says the British decision puts Iceland back 30 to 40 years when it was a poor isolated country. No guarantees have been made by the British government to British local governments, universities including Oxford and Cambridge, and charities, that have billions of dollars in Icesave acccounts and this money is lost. ...

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Under the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 the government is authorized to give upto $25 billion in low interest loans to auto companiesto retool plants to make smaller fuel efficient cars. Lobbyists for the auto industry are trying to increase that to $50 billion. The package of loans is presented not as a bailout but as a way to offset some of the $100 billion it is estimated it would cost the industry to meet the new fuel economy standards enacted in that bill. GM's 7.2% bonds due 2011 were trading at 64.25 cents on August 27, 2008, translating nto a yield of 29% for that debt. In the credit default market it costs $4.5 million upfront and 0.5 million anually to insure $10 million of GM bonds for 5 years. The govenment loans at 4-5% would cost significantly less as borrowing costs are very high for automakers at present. Both Senators McCain and Obama see Michigan and Ohio as crucial to a win and support the loan package. It would cost $3.75 billion in insurance costs for the $25 billion loan package. Because of the automakers precarious financial condition and no improvement in consumer demand or in financial markets in sight in the next 2-3 years as a plausible scenario, and more losses looming for automakers, this package may turn out to be a crucial element in the recovery of the American auto industry and in turning over almost America's entire fleet of cars on the road into more fuel efficient cars....

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What a change DJT's first 100 Days and actions on immigration and tariffs , Ukraine and Russia, have made in China's and World relations in Asia, and in Europe - all for the better, significantly better relations worldwide.  China has worked out a peace settlement in Ladakh frontier with India. It has come together in Tokyo with Japanese prime minister Ishiba and China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi holding hands, and South Korea joining, all three nations vowing to remember history and work together. In Europe Russia is being brought back into the community of nations for big power cooperation with the US after 3 years of war in Ukraine. And Germany has removed its constitutional brake on spending that frees up $1 trillion in funding for infrastructure to replace much of its rail and other infrastructure built in 1900. One would not know this reading the NYT on democracy or the WSJ on tariffs or the Washington Post on assault on federal workforce, or the Atlantic, Politico, DW.com or FR24, Der Spiegel, nor Le Monde, much of the world media slanted on way or another. One does not hear about military exercises so often as the world realizes that so called large economies China, Germany, Japan and India all depend on American goodwill and willingness to give rather than take for most of the post war period since 1950. For the last 6 years in the latter half of the Trump administration and the 4 years of the Biden administration during the pandemic relations between China and the US deteriorated and China first retreated into its own then opened up a bit. The initial idea that it could manage the DJT trade actions evaporated as Biden continued the DJT first round of tariffs. Now Navarro, Lighhizer, and his deputy Jamieson are all back advising DJT for anew round of reciprocal tariffs and tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China for not stopping fentanyl flows.  In 2022 in eastern Ladakh China's PLA had a big standoff with Indian forces in eastern Ladakh at Galwan and Pangong Lake. The Quad was active with Australia India and the US in Indo Pacific and China conducted military exercises close to Taiwan.      ...

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Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) acquires U.S. mobile advertising firm Amobee for all cash deal of US$321 million. SingTel is majority owned by Singapore investment firm Temasek Holdings. It has over 434 million subscribers in 25 countries. SingTel is being restructured into 3 divisions- Group Consumer, Group Digital L!fe, and Group ICT. SingTel's overseas stakes are in India's Bharti Airtel, Indonesia's Telkomsel, Thailand's Advanced Info Service PCL, Pakistan's Warid Telecom, Philippines' Globe Telecom, and Pacific Bangladesh Telecom. A stake in Optus in Australia was acquired in 2001 for A$14 billion (US$15 billion). A 30% stake was taken in Warid Telecom for US$758 million in 2007.

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The Brazilian economy is growing too fast, and this pace not only won't be sustained, but it has signs of serious trouble ahead. The Brazilian economy grew at an estimated annualized pace of 10% in the last 6 months and generated 962,000 jobs between Jan-April of 2010. Growth in 2010 is expected to be 7%. The jump in growth is partly the result of the stimulus measures of the Lula government. But a consensus of experts is that Brazil still saves too little, has not invested enough in infrastructure,and its economy has the potential of 5% sustainable growth each year. The central bank has increased interest rates - increase of 0.75% in April 2010, and economists in Brazil think the rate will go up to 13% in 2011. About $10 billion in cuts in spending have been announced but they are cuts to an already growing budget approved by Congress, so in reality it will only slow the increase in spending. Public debt is at 42.7% of GDP. Real interest rates have fallen from close to 20% in 2003 to between 5-10%. Costs per unit of labor are increasing at about half the rate of real wages according to a finance official. The National Development Bank or BNDES played a role in helping the economy with subsidized loans when the financial markets ran into trouble. It has expanded lending by 50%, with money from the Treasury of 180 billion reais. Some of the measures of the Lula government has reduced the skewed income distribution Brazil, and in doing so has increased consumer demand. Meeting high consumer demand, and meeting the need for commodities like soyabeans and metals from China, has boosted growth in Brazil to twice the sustainable rate and it is now at a par with China and India. But this places Brazil too dependent on the boom in Chinese demand, especially as the stimulus in China slows and the property bubble threatens China's economy. See links to China. A new President after the upcoming Presidential election will have to tackle the high interest rates in 2011, lower commodity prices, and the need for better infrastructure, and make the adjustment to a sustainable pace of growth....

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The plan to prevent foreclosures in Minnesota is supported by the state's Democrat- Farmer-Labor party which has a majority in the legislatre. The Republican Governor of Minnesota Tim Pawlenty is mentioned as running mate to McCain and he will be criticized in the election if he vetoes the bill. A 39% increase in foreclosures is expected for 2008 by Housing Link, a Minnesota nonprofit research group. with about 28,000 households affected. CEO of Toll Brothers, a luxury builder rates Minnesota a F- in assessment of regional housing markets. So what will this bill do? Under the foreclosure deferment plan loans closed from January 1, 2001 through August 1, 2007, when antipredatory lending law took effect would be eligible. Borrowers must be legal U.S. residents and have adjusted household gross incomes of less than $250,000. Second home are not covered. During the deferment period borrowers keep paying a portion of their mortgages. This is set at either the monthly payment of principal and interest when the loan was originated, or 65% of the monthly payment at the time of default, whichever is less. Rep Matsui of California introduced a similar bill in the House of Representatives May 13, 2008. Because the bill limits the benefit to those who are needy and worst affected it would appear to be a sensible approach. At this time there are so many proposals but with little Republican support and a public opinion that sees this as moral hazard or rewarding people for their mistakes with public money, there is little to help the most needy and deserving borrowers for whom a good case can be made for help on a bipartisan basis and with support of the public....