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Amr Darrag, member of the executive board of the Freedom and Justice Party in Egypt, was minister of planning and international cooperation in the elected government of president Morsi, which was overthrown by the Egyptian military after only one year in office. Here he points to the Egyptian military's effort to return Egypt to the days under Mubarak of repression and economic stagnation.

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Recruiting in the Afghan army from predominantly Pastun areas in the south and southeast is way down, almost nonexistent. For Kandahar, Helmand, Oruzgan, Zabul, Paktika, and Ghazni provinves with largely Pashtun people, the numbers show they make up 17% of the population and contributed only 1.5% of new recruits to the army since 2009. Kandahar and Helmand with 2 millon people contributed about 1200 recruits, or less 1% of 173,000 new recrutis since 2009. The northern provinces make up a large number of the new recruits, with Kunduz having a population of 900,000 and contributing 16,500 recruits. There are about 42% Pastuns in the population and a similiar number of Pastuns in the Afghan army, but most are from the northern or northeastern provinces where the insurgency has been weaker. One third are from one northeastern province- Nangarhar. The reason for this is fear of the Taliban finding out that that a young man has enlisted in the south and retaliation against the enlistee or his family. The lack of a southern Pastun presence in the army makes the army more of a northern institution. With withdrawal of American and NATO forces by 2014, this leaves Afghanistan deeply divided between the northern and southern regions. The southern region Pastuns have a significant presence across the border in the northern part of Pakistan, and the southern Pastuns draw support and resources from this region. Removing the foreign presence shifts the balance towards the southern Pastuns and Pakistani Pastuns in the largely mountainous country of this region. This is why the project in Afghanistan requires the support of all factions and ethnic communities in the South Asian region to succeed, setting aside differences and animosities of the past. D. Mahmood Khan, a member of parliament in Kandahar says ordinary Afghans in Kandahar see the Afghan government of Karzai collapsing in a week or two without foreign support and sense a much stronger Taliban....

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Bernie Sanders points out in this NYT op-ed the idea that Donald Trump could benefit from the same discontent among working class voters that helped the Leave campaign is a wake up call for the Democratic Party. He calls for global trade and a global economy that works for working class, middle class Americans.  Sanders is pushing for a Democratic Party that embraces the concerns of working class Americans, that understands the impact of factory closings and loss of jobs, of economic uncertainty, of declining incomes and shrinking opportunities.

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The Washington Post points out the damage to civil society and the rule of law in Egypt in 2014-2015. It cites the Working Group on Egypt's conclusions that repression only works to increase the extremism in the region. A bipartisan group of seven senators including John McCain and Marc Rubio, in a letter to Mr. Kerry, the U.S. Secretary of State, says the U.S. foreign policy must always support human rights, political reform and civil society. It calls these core principles.

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Joe Parkinson of the WSJ gives a in-depth account of the emergence of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey's politics, with contributions by Emre Peker, Ayla Albayrak, Yeliz Candemir. Erdogan grew up in a poor neighborhood of Istanbul, and became the head of a local youth branch of the Islamist National Salvation Party in 1976 after an adolescent period steeped in mosque culture and Islamic ideas. In 1994 he is elected Mayor of Istanbul amid voter discontent with corruption and problems with infrastructure and public services. He served for four years making improvements. After reciting a poem publicly that said "the mosques are our barracks, domes our helmets, minarets our bayonets and faithful our soldiers," he is jailed for 4 months by a military backed secular government in 1999. During this period Erdogan, described by friends from his youth as having a unique ability to adapt to difficult situations, makes a transformation. He moves to the centre, coming out in favor of stronger ties to the EU, and works hard to attract support from the secular and nationalist voters to add to his conservative religious base. In 2003 he is elected prime minister as head of the Justice and Development Party. This begins a period of ten years in which Turkey sees remarkable period of economic growth during which Turkey's GNP nearly quadruples from a little over $200 billion in 2002 to $794.5 billion in 2012, according to the IMF. It may be partly coincidence and partly good management of the economy under Erdogan. Turkey's previous banking and currency crises before 2003 created a better understanding and discipline for managing the economy. Emerging markets such as Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, and other parts of Asia and Latin America were able to achieve high rates of growth during this 10 year period. Competitiveness in Brazil and Turkey has not improved significantly in this period according to experts, and large capital inflows into Turkey partly supported the credit boom in Turkey. And just as growth is slowing significantly in all emerging markets, Turkey under Erdogan faces a new test. Especially now that Erdogan is seen as autocratic in his effort to suppress protests to build an Ottoman era army barracks in Taksim Square, Istanbul. The fears of secularists in Turkey are that this is the Erdogan of the period in 1999, after serving as Mayor of Istanbul. Just as Turks turned away from the overreaching actions of the military, the public sentiment may be shifting beyond the overreaching actions of the religious parties in Turkish politics. The protests in Brazil against the Rouseff administration after the popularity of the Lula administration, show that slowing economic growth and missteps by the elected government can alienate younger voters. The parties still retain a majority but face an uncertain future in which lower economic growth and missteps lead to a search for alternatives. At the same time Turkey's efforts for accession to the EU are beng put on hold as Germany opposes the actions to suppress protests of the Justice Party in Turkey. ...

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Malaysia's debt to GDP ratio increased to 242% in mid-2012 from 192% in 2008 according to McKinsey. As export growth has slowed the Malaysian government is relying on credit expansion to consumers and large capital projects such as the planned subway project in Kuala Lumpur to sustain growth. Similiar credit expansion is seen in other Asian countries- Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong. The period 2008 to 2013 has seen a rapid acceleration in credit expansion in these countries and especially in China. China's debt to GDP ratio increased to 183% in mid 2012 from 153% in 2008, according to McKinsey. Nomura Holding's economist Zhiwei Zhang, and other economists say it is above 200% when government data on "shadow banking" lending institutions such as trust companies is included. IMF economist Giovanni Dell'Ariccia has studied of debt expansion and credit booms since the 1970's. He and other economists at the IMF have found that credit booms- the rapid increase in credit to GDP ratios- end up in crises one third of the time, result in below par growth in another third of the time, and only in one third of the time does growth continue at the high pace. Alex Frangos talks to government officials in Kuala Lumpur who do not take seriously the high vacancy rate for office buildings in the capital of about 20% even as new office towers are being built. Bob Davis gives the example of government owned Hunan Expressway company in China which has a huge road building program and doubled its 2009 debt levels. Another state owned company in shipping China Cosco Holdings increased total debt from 85 billion yuan in 2009 to 123 billion yuan in 2012. As export growth slowed in China in 2009 credit expansion is driving growth. The normal restraints of the market are absent in China's state owned companies. Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch Ratings Inc in Beijing, says 2012 demonstrated that the Chinese government cannot slow credit growth without risking a decline in growth. China's GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2013 slowed to 7.7% from 7.9% in the 4th quarter of 2012. This poses a serious problem for China. China has never experienced the kinds of problems seen in Asia after the 1997 banking crisis, in the eurozone today, and in the U.S. following the financial crisis of 2008, making government officials prone to complacency about the risks....

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Tunisia's president Moncef Marzouki comments on the violent demonstrations in Arab countries after the anti-Islamic video in Sept. 2012. He says the violent demonstrations do not reflect the true feelings of the vast majority of Arab people. He says the Arab Spring is not pro or anti-western but focussed on social justice and democracy, and not even about religion when truly understood.

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The approach of the new Jinping-Keqiang administration to tackle the problem of surging credit growth, with poor quality lending in China's shadow banking system leading to problems of hidden debt and unknown quantity of loans in default. The central bank tightens credit in June 2013 sending a signal to lenders including small and medium sized banks and Trust companies in the shadow banking system that the government will let them default- that they are essentally on their own if they do not follow prudent financial practices.

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This NYT editorial on slowing growth in India is critical of the performance of prime minister Manmohan Singh's government.

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Ben Van Heuvelen documents in the Washington Post what Ali Nabhan and Bradley pointed out in the WSJ in May 2009, that the officers in the Iraqi army lacked the training and discipline to act as an effective fighting force. These early indications proved correct and were ignored by the Iraqi government and the Obama administration till it was too late with the fall of Mosul and the ensuing chaos in Iraq.

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Noam Scheiber of NYT provides this illuminating account of how the changes in employment affected Hispanic Americans since 2004. About 500,000 jobs were created in the U.S. construction industry in 2014. Of this 315,000 jobs went to Hispanics with the highest number in California, Florida, Texas and Illinois, which have large Hispanic population. This has enabled Hispanic employment to reach the pre-recession levels in 2015 before this happens for blacks and whites, according to the Economic Report of the President. The drop in immigrants from Mexico crossing the border as economic conditions deteriorated in the U.S. in 2009-2012, and the stricter enforcement, has resulted in native born Americans benefitting most from the jobs created. Hispanics took the biggest hit following the recession in 2009-2012, with a loss of 700,000 jobs for the 3 million Hispanics employed in construction. During the 2004-2007 construction boom Pew Research shows 1.6 million jobs going to immigrants, of which 800,000 went to native born Hispanics, before the collapse in construction in 2009. This time the recovery is benefitting native born Americans most....

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Mitt Romney's position on the auto industry bailout was spelled out in an article in the New York Times in 2008 titled "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt." Romney opposed government loans to the auto industry. Because of the unusual factors that faced the auto industry such as the subprime mortgage driven financial credit crisis, financial market volatility and GM and Chrysler being shut out of credit markets, the need to maintain buyer confidence during bankruptcy, the planned bankruptcy with government loans was seen as the way to rescue a crucial part of the U.S. manufacturing industry by other business executives such as Jack Welch of GE, and by many adviors to the government from the private sector.

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In comments to the Financial Inquiry Commission bankers Blankfein and Dimon show a lack of comprehension of the magnitude of the global financial crisis and their role in it. Blankfein says this kind of crisis was a once in a 100 years event and one should't react. Dimon says such crises happen every 5 to 7 years and is not something to get overly concerned about. And they offer no solutions or problem solving ideas, except to resist any form of regulation that would strictlly limit damage from a future crisis.