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Experts Roach, Grantham, Roubini and Shiller see serious risks of a double dip recession.
05/13/2010
Dangers of another bubble from zero interest rates which reward excessive risktaking, a blow to confidence levels from some sudden event, the eurozone crisis, and a fragile world economy that has not made the normal recovery, are cited
Linked Articles
Charlie Rose Talks to Nouriel Roubini
BusinessWeek 05/13/2010
Beware a Bernanke-Fueled Market BubbleBusinessWeek 05/13/2010
John Taylor's reply to U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke's defence of his role in setting low interest rates in 2003-2006 leading to the 2008 global financial crisis
01/04/2010
Linked Articles
The Fed and the Crisis: A Reply to Ben Bernanke
Wall Street Journal 01/10/2010
Fed chief Bernanke urges better financial regulation to prevent crisesWashington Post 01/04/2010
Danone and P&G's (Procter & Gamble) innovative strategies for reaching low income customers in emerging markets.
12/12/2009
In 2004 Indonesian managers showed Franck Riboud, CEO of Danone, a pyramid of customers in Indonesia's population of 240 million people. It showed only 20 million customers at the top of the pyramid as the only ones who could afford Danone products. At that point Ribaud made up his mind to go after the large number of people at the lower end of the pyramid and come with strategies to do this profitably. By 2010 46% of Danone's sales were from emerging markets, up from 10% a decade earlier, showing the pace of the change. Unilever, P&G, Nestle, Colgate-Palmolive and other companies are following similiar strategies. P&G has used Mexico as a lab for experimenting with new products at low price points and Danone has done this in Indonesia.
Linked Articles
Danone Expands Its Pantry to Woo the World's Poor
Wall Street Journal 06/25/2010
P.& G. Sees the World as Its ClientNew York Times 12/12/2009
David Rieff provides insights on why all developing countries, Mexico, Brazil, India, Indonesia and China need to take child malnutrition seriously
10/11/2009
The Indian lower house of parliament passed a Food Security bill in August 2013. Rieff says China made serious progress to reduce malnutrition from over 21% for children under 5 years to around 7% today after 1990. In India malnutrition for children under 5 years is above 40%. There is a lot that developing coutnries can learn from each other in this area including the Bolsa Familia program in Brazil which uses the concept of improving vaccination for children and school attendance as requirements for subsidy payments to the poor. Mexico and Indonesia have different versions of programs to help the poorer sections of society. The problem is acute in India because of indifference induced by caste and other considerations and the high level of malnutrition for children. Rief says how good is ademographic dividend when many of these children are permanently and silently impaired by malnutrition by the age of three. India's Congress party leader, Sonia Gandhi, put it differently in parliament: "What is our responsibility to these people?"
Linked Articles
New York Times 10/11/2009
India's Lower House Passes Food Bill to Help PoorWall Street Journal 08/26/2013
Intractable conflicts and a way out- the U.S., Europe, India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, and South Asians in Kashmir
09/23/2009
Linked Articles
Obama Is Considering Strategy Shift in Afghan War
New York Times 09/23/2009
Kashmir's troubles: Shaking the mountainsEconomist 01/01/2011
Failure of HARP refinance program of the Obama adminsitration and rising mortgage rates.
06/11/2009
Rising rates makes refinancing difficult for homeowners. Mortgage rates reached 5.79% on June 10, 2009.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Rate Rise Clouds RecoveryWall Street Journal 06/12/2009
Paul Krugman responds to Arthur Laffer's points about inflation by saying reversing course would put us back into a steep downturn.
06/11/2009
Krugman says only three times in the past has amajor economy faced a liquidity trap, where there is no more room to cut interest rates. During the depression years, during Japan's lost decade and now. In the previous two situations, in 1937 and 1996, a premature tightening of credit put the economy back into a steep downturn.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Stay the CourseNew York Times 06/15/2009
Treasury data show the 10 year Treasury bond yield went up to 3.78% in April from 3.0% 3 months ago.
06/11/2009
The effect of large Fed purchases of Treasury's may be the reverse of lowering rates, as creditors to the government see rising inflation from the Fed's unprecedented actions.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Fed's Conundrum on Treasury PurchasesWall Street Journal 06/15/2009
The $5 trillion in new debt expected for 2009-2010, will become harder to reverse if the rising foreclosures weaken any recovery.
06/02/2009
With 15.4 million homeowners under water and rising unemployment exacerbating the foreclosure rate, and no governement solution in sight, any recovery will be weak. This makes the debt reduction less likely, and weakens prospects for economic growth.
Linked Articles
Rising Interest on Nations’ Debts May Sap World Growth
New York Times 06/04/2009
Foreclosures: No End in SightNew York Times 06/02/2009
Two scenes-one of Gates and the other of Sgt. Hyland- and the knot that ties them together.
05/15/2009
Scenes of a rainy night at an airforce base in Delaware, as Defense Sec. Gates prays in a 747 with draped coffins of dead soldiers. And the scene of a maimed soldier, Sgt Hyland, weeping in front of a picture of Specialist Jonathan at a battalion hall in Diyala province. near Baghdad. And the relevance to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Linked Articles
Wounded Soldiers Return to Iraq, Seeking Solace
New York Times 10/15/2009
Pentagon's Gates Keeps Single-Minded Focus on Dual Wars in Iraq and AfghanistanWashington Post 05/15/2009
The rapid structural shift in employment to new industries and fields may create high unemployment even as millions of vacancies go unfilled.
04/30/2009
The Labor Departments JOLT statistics for job openings shows over 3 million job vacancies. The reason for this is the mismatch in qualifications and the speed with which industries are downsizing, and the shift to new industries and fields away from banking, retail, construction and autos. This makes new initiatives in retraining and government cost sharing to enable companies to hire and retrain super critical. Germany has some initiatives lkke this.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's BadBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
What the U.S. and other eurozone countries can learn from Germany in reducing unemployment (1)
04/30/2009
The Harz labor market reforms under the Schroeder administration helped Germany reduce unemployment after over a decade of high unemployment folowing reunification.
Linked Articles
Germany reaps rewards of entitlement cuts - The Washington Post
Washington Post 09/20/2011
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
In the two areas that government can make aserious difference, foreclosure prevention and bank lending it is failing.
04/15/2009
The government has only indirect influence over the other important variables in the equation for economic recovery, consumption and employment. Through foreclosure prevention and bank lending it can influence consumption and employment. Obama's program while admirable may simply fall short of what is required. Through asimple takeover of insolvent banks the administrationcan implement its own programs for goreclosure prevention and aggressive bank lending at attractive rates, but this has to be done early before business go into permanent retrenchment mode and consumers simply revert to a frugal lifestyle of an earlier generation.
Linked Articles
Lending By Bailout Recipients Falls Again
Washington Post 04/16/2009
Banks Ramp Up ForeclosuresWall Street Journal 04/15/2009
Voter preference for third parties creates a long term shift to coalition government in Britain.
05/13/2010
Conservative and Labor parties received only 65% of the vote in the 2010 U.K. elections.
Linked Articles
Economist 05/13/2010
Britain's accidental revolutionEconomist 05/13/2010
From online retail to selling consumer goods - different ways of selling in Nigeria, rural India, rural Brazil and other emerging markets
12/12/2009
Linked Articles
In Nigeria, Rising Dreams of Web Commerce
Wall Street Journal 06/03/2012
P.& G. Sees the World as Its ClientNew York Times 12/12/2009
Yale Prof. Fair and former Labor Secretary Reich differ on impact of yuan appreciation.
11/17/2009
Linked Articles
The Yin and Yang of Yuan Appreciation
Wall Street Journal 06/01/2010
China and the American Jobs MachineWall Street Journal 11/17/2009
Bill Gates and David Rieff on the untapped resource for India and the global economy of India's children
10/11/2009
The challenge of getting hundreds of millions of rural Indian children into the development mainstream through better healthcare, pharmaceuticals, nutrition, education and agricultural improvement is the next major challenge for India and the global economy. It is a huge untapped resource for India and the global economy.
Linked Articles
Bill Gates: What I Learned in the Fight Against Polio
Wall Street Journal 11/10/2013
India’s Malnutrition DilemmaNew York Times 10/11/2009
The disillusionment of Mexico's voters with the the Vicente Fox and Felipe Calderon administrations of the National Action Party
07/09/2009
The failure to meet rising expectations in Mexico. Mexico's GDP would be 2.5% higher if the oil sector was opened up, labor laws were changed and competitiveness introduced to the country's oligopolies in airlines telecom and other sectors, says Mexico's Center for National Competitiveness.
Linked Articles
Pocketbook Issues Weigh on Mexico Voters
New York Times 06/30/2012
Calderón's hatful of troublesEconomist 07/09/2009
The Economist cites IMF economist estimates that the public debt of the 10 largest industrialized countries will jump from 78% to 114% of GDP by 2014, leading to higher interest rates and inflation.
06/11/2009
The rising public debt and its unsustainability is what the future holds. For governments and decisionmakers there are very difficult choices, as fiscaly austerity and premature fiscal tightening or raising interest ratescan choke off a recovery. Raising taxes as happened earlier in Japan's lost decade also can choke off a recovery. Seriously tacklig health care costs and raising the retirement age, are much needed steps.
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The biggest bill in historyEconomist 06/11/2009
Deflation and the bond market pushing up rates in June 2009.
06/11/2009
Linked Articles
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates
Wall Street Journal 06/11/2009
Today's Inflation Hawk: The Bond MarketWall Street Journal 06/16/2009
Bernanke's views on how the underutilization of labor in todays markets should make inflation less of a threat.
06/11/2009
Remarks by Bernanke to the Open Market Committee of the Fed in 2003, have a relevance to the situation facing the economy today. Rising raw materials prices and the falling dollar are likely to have a muted effect on inflation. The impact of slowing wages and the high unemployment and growing underutilization of labor, in the midst of a manufacturing capacity utilization rate of 68% and continuing to fall, are likely to be the deciding factors.
Linked Articles
Slack Labor Markets Will Hold Down Prices
Wall Street Journal 06/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
The huge downsizing in the auto industry creates the need for big government supported initatives in retraining.
05/21/2009
Vicotr Brown and the 60,000 former workers at GM's BUick City have worked at GM all their lives, and can't imagine anything else. How does one get them from joining the ranks of the permanently unemployed, is a challenge for the government. THe labor underutilization rate expected to reach 20% for 2010, could threaten the economic recovery, and put everything at risk.
Linked Articles
Stuck at Unemployed: When A Layoff Becomes a Lifestyle
Washington Post 06/06/2009
The Last Holdouts Cast Their Lot With G.M.New York Times 05/21/2009
The youth vote in India's 2014 and 2009 parliamentary elections
05/02/2009
Linked Articles
Wall Street Journal 05/02/2009
Hopes of a Generation Ride on Indian VoteNew York Times 05/15/2014
What America can learn from the German example for government help to retrain workers and share costs to hire and retrain.
04/30/2009
The need for initiatives in this area are supercritical to handle the economic recovery correctly because of deepseated changes in the labor markets. In the absence of this high unemployment will coexist with millions of vacancies because of amismatch of qualifications. A lack of worker mobility. because of housing problems compounds this situation.
Linked Articles
Help Wanted: Why That Sign's Bad
BusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Learning Labor Market Lessons from GermanyBusinessWeek 04/30/2009
Laffer says inflation and high interest rates are a sure thing with the $1 trillion increase in the monetary base since Sept 2008.
04/23/2009
This is the largest increase in the monetary base in the last 50 years by afactor of 10, and is unlike anything ever experienced before. He sees inflation and rising interest rates as a result surpassing anything seen in the 1970's. Bernanke he says faces a Hobson's choice between contracting the monetary base and putting the economy back in recession and letting things go the way they are resulting in steep inflation. He sees the Fed having the option of increasing the reserve requirements at banks, to restrain the increase in the monetary base.
Linked Articles
Economist 04/23/2009
Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest RatesWall Street Journal 06/11/2009
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