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A look at the views of Michael McFaul, former U.S. ambassador to Russia and Strobe Talbott, a State Department advisor, on how the Obama administration missed signals of a more assertive policy from Russia during the period Medvedev was president. At the time Medvedev offered a softer tone from Russia and the U.S. extended cooperation. With the return of Putin as president for a second term, his more strident views on the role of Russia in the world following the collapse of the Soviet Union have emerged, especially in tems of policies in Syria and Ukraine.

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Venezuela faces an uncertain future after U.S. efforts to support Mr. Guaido and call for new free and fair elections have failed. With help from Russia the Venezuelan economy is showing signs of recovery from the steep decline and high inflation in 2019. Oil production is expected to reach 1 million barrels a day in 2020 after falling to 650,000- 700,000 barrels a day in 2019. Russia's oil company Rosneft provides critical help for Venezuelan oil sales and maintenance in oil fields.  National Security Adviser John Bolton is faulted for his advice to president Trump on Venezuela, that merely voicing support for 36 year old Guaido, would lead to regime change without action from the U.S. With the recovery in Venezuela with help from Russia and Cuba, Mr. Guaido's popularity has dropped by 20 points to 38%, according to a Venezuelan pollster Datanalisis. Most Cubans and Venezuelans in the U.S. are in Florida where there is support for new elections, and Mr. Trump continues to support Mr. Guaido. The lack of support for change from other countries including Europe, India, Turkey, and Mexico have led to a stalled situation in Venezuela. There is concern for the steep inflation, the migration of about 4.5 million Venezuelans, the shortages of critical supplies as a result of the economic collapse in 2019. The situation is stabilizing for the government yet the future of Venezuela with U.S. sanctions and weak economy leaves Venezuela in a precarious situation. Venezuela continues to be an example of how well meaning changes for social justice can lead to political changes that bring about economic collapse. This happens  when business and the economy flounder under mismanagement and corruption under crony socialism, a variant of crony capitalism. The old capitalist class and the privileged families who ran the country under its old two party system are gone. Replaced with a new class. The trying out of untested economic ideas in the quest for social balance leads to economic mismanagement, loss of critical human resources which leave the country, and a higher degree of poverty with shortages than before.  Today in Latin America Brazil shows how allowing generous pension benefits at the expense of basic needs and public services in the budget can hurt the economy. Argentina's overborrowing once again shows how this leads to IMF loans and harsh economic austerity. Chile shows how not financing pensions and public services can lead to collapse of public confidence and riots. Venezuela shows how the quest for social justice and reducing privilege can itself get flawed, leading to mass migration of as many as 4.5 million citizens. This happens under models that vary from free enterprise models to socialist or nationalist models showing that models can be less relevant than good sense and good management. In the beginning and for some time each of these models worked well, commodity price supported booms concealed real problems. Avoiding extremes, prudent spending, good investment and hard work, investment in education and infrastructure, building consensus, and good management, is critical for the future to avoid the bad outcomes facing much of Latin America. A lesson also for Asian and African countries that basic virtue is more important than socialism or free enterprise or nationalism when it comes to development.   ...

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The shooting of former deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov, a leader of the opposition in Russia, in Red Square, Moscow, on Feb. 28, 2015.

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Russia raises interest rates by 6.5% to 17% on Dec. 15, 2014, as Brent crude prices fall below $60 and pressure on the ruble increases. Anticipation of the U.S. Federal Reserve raising interest rates in 2015 puts pressure on emerging market currencies, adding to pressure on the ruble. All emerging market currencies, the Brazilian Real, South African Rand, Indian Rupee, Indonesian Rupiah, Turkish Lira, also come under pressure as money flows out of emerging markets in a repeat of the situation in January 2014.

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The economic effects of US and German-French sanctions on Russia ar shown here in this Guardian article by Jim O'Neill, who helped coin the term BRICS that include Russia. The sanctions are likely to make the Russian economy even less significant than its current role in the world economy.  Renewable energy development and alternative use of LNG through new super terminals will likely be speeded up with new investments in Germany and the US. The result could be even faster depreciation of oil based assets for economies dependent on oil and gas exports. This would also contribute to the COP26 pledges for accelerated response to global warming. Western oil companies will also be put in a situation where an accelerated shift to renewables is seen as connected to less dependence on outside sources and so enhancing energy security. Productivity gains and gains in technology are also dependent on good relations with the economies of Europe and the US, Japan, for the rest of the world. This leaves economies that are left out in some form or other failing to grow up to their potential, a situation that accelerates over time and could be seen clearly in the next 5-10 years. This would impact growth rates and economic development in these countries and reverse years of gains in the last two decades.     ...

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Attacks from Iran on Saudi oil infrastructure leading to a loss of half of Saudi oil production is likely to be a problem for countries such as China, South Korea and Japan that have reduced oil imports from Iran and increased dependence on Saudi supplies. This was a result of tighter U.S. oil sanctions on Iran. India is also affected. About 30% of the lost production will be restored say Saudis.  The U.S. is less dependent on Saudi supplies and as Gerald Seib points out in a video in WSJ the U.S. has 3 reasons not to intervene on behalf of Saudis. The U.S. has increased its oil production from shale oil and is less dependent on Saudi oil. It is also becoming reluctant to engage in Saudi Arabia's wars such as the one in Yemen against Houthi rebels. There is also less support in Congress and in the country for supporting endless wars that originate from Saudi actions. A Trump tweet before his election campaign shown in WSJ makes this point about endless wars and the U.S. needing to be paid trillions of dollars for these wars. The conflicts in the region affect China and India where growth is close to 5% before any impact from oil price increases. Together Asian countries take in 72% of Saudi oil exports and China now imports more Saudi oil than Russian oil by a wide margin- in June 1.88 million barrels a day. Saudi oil makes about 19% of imported oil in India and 33% for Japan. Imports into India of Saudi oil are up 8% this year to 847,000 barrels a day in 2019. China is better situated than Japan with reserve supplies of 644 days of imports compared to 230 days for Japan. This why Japan has played a constructive role in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and urged both sides to negotiate. China and India also have interests that converge in reducing tensions between the U.S. and Iran. As a first step president Trump removed his National Security Adviser John Bolton in preference for reduced tensions.  ...

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The Trump administration proposes a zero policy for Iranian oil imports which says the U.S. will grant zero exemptions to countries importing Iranian oil.  Big importers China and India are likely to resist this policy.

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Exxon CEO Tillerson established the early links with Russia for oil exploration projects. He says large investments in oil exploration in Russia are unlikely to be affected by the political risks in U.S.-Russia relations.

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Ukraine president Poroshenko tells a news conference in Kiev in September 2014 - "the doors of the E.U. are open to us; I am absolutely convinced of this. Events in Kiev and Brussels gave us a firm hope, a belief, that we will soon get the prospect of E.U. membership." Poroshenko plans to repeal a 2010 law barring Ukraine from membership in any military or political alliance, so that it can apply to join NATO. Clearly Mr. Putin's remark to EU president Barroso that Russia could reach Kiev in 2 weeks has stiffened resolve all over Eastern Europe from Lithuania to Poland, and changed perception in Germany and France about Mr. Putin. The German response from Merkel was to have "a consistent presence" in the Baltic Republics, so that the consequences of threats in Eastern Europe would be made clear to Mr. Putin. Poroshenko says he is in constant communication with Putin about settlement of the situation in eastern Ukraine, showing the costs recognized by all sides to prolonging the conflict....

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GM takes a $600 million charge in the 1st quarter with the decision by CEO Mary Barra to close the plant in St. Petersburg, Russia. GM's market share in Russia had declined from over 9% to 7.4%, and the sharp decline in the Russian auto market made Russia an unattractive proposition as GM focusses on improving profitability in Europe.

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The last days of the pro-Russian Donetsk People's Republic in eastern Ukraine, as Ukrainian government forces under the government of prime minister Poroshenko defeat separatists by July 2014. Russia decides not to intervene further. Opinion polls show a majority of Ukrainians in Donetsk do not favor separatism, and opposition is based on alienation from the poor quality of governance in Kiev. With the Poroshenko government committed to respecting the rights of Russian speaking Ukrainians, Tymoshenko soundly defeated in elections, and Russia's economy at risk in the adverse impact on foreign investor sentiment, Russia's sees little to be gained from supporting the separatists.

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Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission, tells Italian newspaper La Repubblica on September 1, 2014, that Russian president Putin made some abnormal remarks in a phone conversation. Responding to Barroso's question about whether Russian troops had crossed into eastern Ukraine, Putin is reported to say: "That is not the question... But if I wanted to, I could take Kiev in two weeks." The WSJ editorial on September 3 referred to an earlier editorial on "Putin Bonaparte," giving some idea of how such comments by Putin are seen in the media, and how Putin's actions in Ukraine are creating new tensions with the NATO alliance and the U.S.